Kamala Harris & The Californication Of America

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

If you have ever confronted the astonishing hatred that San Francisco Bay Area Democrats have for anything Republican, much less MAGA Republican, then you understand why Kamala Harris may become the next president of the United States.

This isn’t a hate that is grounded in reality. It is nurtured by decades of propaganda, backed by trillions of dollars in big tech wealth, and, lately, the most powerful tools of mass hypnosis and Pavlovian conditioning the world has ever seen. If you question any of their pieties—climate, race, gender, Trump—you are instantly and permanently dehumanized. It is impossible to change their minds. There is no room for nuance. There is no tolerance for alternative perspectives. You are hated. You are garbage. Give up. Die.

This is Kamala Harris’s core constituency.

If you haven’t experienced the withering rebukes of San Francisco progressives or been the target of their white-hot rage, you might think Harris’s Portlandian drivel actually indicates a benevolent, if somewhat intellectually middling, soul. Her bird-brained new-age prognostications are certainly more humorous than fearsome:

“It is time for us to do what we have been doing, and that time is every day.”

“The significance of the passage of time, right? The significance of the passage of time. So when you think about it, there is great significance to the passage of time.”

“You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.”

It’s hard to ascribe malevolence to phrases like this. They’re the words of a vapid airhead, not a tyrant. On the other hand, Harris’s penchant for nodding her head in the affirmative as a way to punctuate literally everything she says is more than slightly ominous. It is a condescending, passive-aggressive way to telegraph what is actually a terrifying arrogance. I am right. You will agree. Nod your head with me. This is how it is.

Yikes.

Here’s what Kamala Harris is really about, and here’s what we are up against:

California is ruled by a coalition of extreme environmentalists, opportunistic business interests, the “renewables” lobby, the Homeless Industrial Complex, the DEI Industrial Complex, public sector unions, including the rabidly partisan and woke teachers union, and Hollywood, all backed by tech billionaires who wield stupefying wealth and influence.

At its roots, this is a coalition of lunatics, crooks, and amoral pragmatists. A prominent Democrat who was working on some genuine reforms once told me, “We had the Republicans at hello.” A businessman who supports Democrats once shared with me a similar sentiment. “Why should we back Republicans?” he said, “we’ve already got them.” And yet the Republicans, especially the “MAGA Republicans,” are the threat. Go figure.

This is a machine, and Harris is just a cog. Meanwhile, California is broken. People can’t afford homes or any other essentials, including gasoline, electricity, water, food, tuition, or health care. And the reason California is broken is because the economy is dominated by leeches who profit from inefficiency and failure and hide behind pessimistic narratives—climate doom, race and gender resentment.

Not every Democrat in California has bought the progressive narrative. Not every one of them has become usefully terrified of climate catastrophes, pervasive white bigotry, and MAGA fascists. Not every one of them has succumbed to apocalyptic fear and hence yielded to blinding hatred of the alleged deniers, bigots, Nazis and MAGA storm troopers on the brink of destroying the world.

No. Some of them are just practical. Do you want to do business in California? Play ball with the Democratic machine. Do you want to make incremental change? Maybe find some nonpartisan island of common sense and work towards at least one useful reform? Be a Democrat. To have credibility in California, that’s the price of admission. Which is to say, there are some Democrats in California trying to do some good.

The problem with this otherwise sound reasoning is that even Democrats with mostly good ideas are bound to have at least one issue where they are insanely, fatally flawed. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a perfect example. On many critical issues, he is a breath of fresh air, a voice of honesty and courage. But on the issue of climate change, his positions are just as fascist, delusional and obedient to the doom narrative as the worst machine politician the Democrats can offer.

Which brings us back to Kamala Harris. She is going to represent the Democrats in the race for U.S. president for the same reason Joe Biden did. Just like Joe, she is a puppet. A cog in the machine. But make no mistake about the motivations of her donors. They want to rule the world. And make no mistake about her grassroots supporters. They have been manipulated into thinking of themselves as embattled warriors, fueled by a hatred they believe is righteous and justified.

The irony is deep and tragic. They are the Nazis they hate. They are the haters they hate. They are the puppets of the authoritarian machine they think they’re fighting.

As Kamala Harris spouts her goofy aphorisms, in between stoking her acolytes with fear and loathing, this machine is one election away from consolidating its power across America. If it wins, it will do to the entire country what it’s done to California.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/31/2024 - 16:45
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Kamala Harris & The Californication Of America

"Too Complacent" - Back To Mag-7 Earnings & The AI Story

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

It is difficult to tell how much of today’s rally was:

• AMD related which was up more than 10% and presumably helped rally almost 15% adding more than $300 billion of market cap

• MSFT, gaining traction from the immediate post earnings reaction as their conference call did a lot to soothe investors – a nice turnaround in a market that has been punishing “misses”

• The Fed.   Yields moved down across the curve, even though the Fed didn’t cut rates, and only signaled that September was a possibility, not a done deal.

• Relief rally from what has been a few tough weeks for stocks, buy the dippers being enticed back in, and some chatter about money on the sidelines moving in from money funds now that rate cuts are in sight.

• Not only are we getting buyback announcements, but as companies make it through their earnings, they are able to enter back into discretionary buybacks and may view recent dips as great buying opportunities.

In terms of the Fed:

• Powell didn’t commit to September, but with the market likely to be pricing in close to 100% certainty it would take some unusually strong numbers on either inflation or employment to have them not cut.

• I don’t see 50 on the table.

• The Fed seems more comfortable with the employment situation than many in the market. This remains my biggest area of fear – that employment deteriorates more rapidly than the Fed is expecting (or is priced into the market), but the Fed feels handcuffed and cannot commit to easing quickly in response to employment data (they are still afraid of inflation retuning).

Both stocks and bonds seem a little too complacent about the Fed, earnings and other factors.

• The Japanese Yen, has broken below 150 for the first time since the middle of March. Improving 7% versus the dollar in 3 weeks could have some repercussions for anyone funding positions with Yen. That was listed as a reason for stocks declining a few weeks ago, and is worth paying some attention to.

• While events in the Middle East didn’t affect markets overnight, there is once again increased risk of an escalation directly between Iran and Israel (Today’s SITREP).

• We have some more earnings to get through, and it really does seem like “get through” is the watchword, as opposed to being an excuse to rally like they have been in some prior earnings cycles.

• Jobs. That is my biggest concern for markets, but falls into an overall view that we will be going from no/soft landing to some form of bumpy landing in the coming weeks as data comes in.

Back to Mag 7 Earnings and the AI Story

I still expect that stocks will be lower in August than they were yesterday, but it won’t be a one way street and today likely helped to reset some “for a trade” longs, and squeeze out shorts, smoothing the path to more downside on any disappointment.

I am somewhat surprised the rate rally is continuing, but there has been less corporate new issuance and the “month end index extension” trade is well known and likely helping support rates here (which in turn are helping stocks).  I don’t see that continuing.

Energy related stocks remain my favorite position, as they will act as a hedge in the event of geopolitical escalation.

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"Too Complacent" - Back To Mag-7 Earnings & The AI Story

Biden Announces New Rules To Make Millions More Eligible For Student Debt Relief

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

President Joe Biden announced new rules on July 31 that make millions more borrowers eligible for student loan debt relief.

“Today, my Administration took another major step to cancel student debt for approximately 30 million Americans,” Biden said.

“We won’t stop fighting to provide relief to student loan borrowers, fix the broken student loan system, and help borrowers get out from under the burden of student debt.”

Starting on Aug. 1, the Education Department will send emails to all borrowers with at least one outstanding federal student loan with updates on potential debt relief and a notice of the Aug. 30 deadline to call and opt out if they are not interested in the program. The email does not guarantee eligibility.

The department will finalize the rules this fall, based on the administration’s existing work to provide $168 billion in student loan relief to nearly 4.8 million borrowers. If the rules are finalized as proposed, the number of borrowers eligible for student loan relief will climb to more than 30 million, including those already approved.

“These latest steps will mark the next milestone in our efforts to help millions of borrowers who’ve been buried under a mountain of student loan interest, or who took on debt to pay for college programs that left them worse off financially, those who have been paying their loans for twenty or more years, and many others,” Education Department Secretary Miguel Cardona said in a statement.

The administration released its first set of draft rules in April, directing Cardona to grant further student loan debt relief to tens of millions of borrowers nationwide, including those with balances growing from years of interest.

If finalized, the rules would allow Cardona to provide partial or full debt relief to borrowers who owe more than they did at the start of repayment, those who have been in repayment for more than 20 years, those eligible for loan forgiveness but have not yet applied, and those enrolled in low-financial value programs.

The Education Department said if the rules are approved, the proposed relief would automatically apply to eligible borrowers.

Borrowers who instead want to opt out of debt relief can do so by contacting their servicer by Aug. 30, but will not be able to opt back into the program.

Currently, the Biden–Harris administration has approved $69.2 billion for 946,000 borrowers through fixes to Public Service Loan Forgiveness, $51 billion for more than a million borrowers through adjustments to income-driven repayment counts, and $28.7 billion for more than 1.6 million who were “cheated by their schools, saw their institutions precipitously close, or are covered by related court settlements.”

The administration also granted $14.1 billion to more than 548,000 borrowers with total and permanent disabilities and $5.5 billion to 414,000 borrowers through the SAVE Plan.

“From day one of my administration, I promised to fight to ensure higher education is a ticket to the middle class, not a barrier to opportunity,” Biden said.

“I will never stop working to make higher education affordable and to make sure our administration delivers for the American people.”

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Biden Announces New Rules To Make Millions More Eligible For Student Debt Relief

Bonds & Bullion Bid; Crude, Crypto, & Mega-Cap Skid Ahead Of Fed/BoJ

With gamma 'unclenched' (and now solidly negative), markets have been free to roam...

Source: SpotGamma

And today saw more downward pressure as trader anxiety built ahead of the major macro catalysts and the fact that approximately 40% of the S&P 500 is expected to report this week across all sectors making it the biggest and perhaps one of the most important weeks of earnings this season.

Nasdaq was the biggest loser (again) today with Small Caps and The Dow managing gains (as tech weighed on the S&P 500 too). The last few minutes of the day-session (before MSFT) saw a panic-bid hit the major indices (but it didn't last long)...

Nasdaq has almost perfectly recoupled with Russell 2000 YTD now...

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman's trading desk noted that overall volumes and S&P top of book both muted heading into MSFT EPS post close and FOMC + BOJ tomorrow.

• Floor skewed 2% better to buy today after similar buy skews yday.

• LOs selling Tech vs buying Hcare and Fins.

• HFs much better for sale across Tech and Hcare vs buying consumer discretionary.

The basket of MAG7 stocks tumbled back to last week's Global Outage spike lows....

Source: Bloomberg

UBS' trading desk offered some additional color:

"today more than half of the selling is short looking at our Hedge Fund flow (35/32/33 - buy/sell/short sell)."

'Most Shorted' stocks were slammed...

Source: Bloomberg

Semis were slammed again today - back to an interestingly coincidental drawdown level from the past year...

Source: Bloomberg

S&P is hovering around its 50DMA...

...while Nasdaq has tumbled down to its its 100DMA and found support...

Much of today's plunge was triggered by the ubiquitous leaks from BoJ...

1. BOJ leaks some more hawkish jibberish (it owns half of all JGBs, rates simply can not rise)

2. Yen spikes

3. Carry trades hammered

4. Tech crushed

And sure enough they tumbled together...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended unchanged, with the BoJ leaked comments erasing the overnight gains in the greenback...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ignored the dollar and extended gains, spiking on the Israeli airstrikes headlines...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were bid (as traders saw through the HL JOLTS data) with the short-end outperforming (2Y -4bps, 30Y -2bps). That small rally pushed all yields lower on the week...

Source: Bloomberg

...but expectations for a Fed rate-cut this week are practically zero...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended yesterday's losses, testing a $65,000 handle (after briefly tagging $70k yesterday...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the total market-cap of the Magnificent 7 stocks tumbled back below $15 trillion today (down over $2 trillion from its record highs) - in context, that is just a two-month low...

Source: Bloomberg

Another ugly day for NVDA today (down 6.5%)...

Source: Bloomberg

...but of course, we will see what MSFT has to say about that tonight.

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Bonds & Bullion Bid; Crude, Crypto, & Mega-Cap Skid Ahead Of Fed/BoJ

Texas Oil Regulator Opens Probe After Earthquakes Hit The Permian

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The Railroad Commission of Texas, the oil regulator in America’s top oil-producing state, has opened a probe after a series of earthquakes hit the Permian basin last week.

Last week, dozens of tremors were registered in counties close to oil and gas operations in Texas.

West Texas was hit by several earthquakes, the largest measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale.

After the series of quakes, the Railroad Commission is investigating wells in which operators have injected salty water that comes out of oil wells.

The so-called disposal wells within two and a half miles of the cluster of quakes in the Camp Springs area are under investigation, Patty Ramon, a spokesperson for the state agency, has told Bloomberg.

The area is about 100 miles northeast of the city of Midland at the heart of the Permian basin.

“In efforts to reduce seismicity possibly caused by underground injection of produced water, several operators in the area have converted deep saltwater disposal wells to shallow saltwater disposal wells within the last year,” RRC said in a statement.

“RRC inspectors are out inspecting saltwater disposal wells within two and a half miles of the cluster of earthquakes this week and the RRC will evaluate next steps that can be taken to mitigate earthquakes. We’ll continue to take measures necessary to protect the environment and residents in the area.”

The dozens of earthquakes in Scurry County, roughly 60 miles west-northwest of Abilene, have raised questions about the role of the oil and gas industry in these events.

“Western Texas, and specifically the Permian Basin, have seen a significant increase in seismicity since about 2019,” Justin Rubinstein, a research geophysicist with the Earthquake Science Center at the U.S. Geological Survey, told Houston Public Media, a service of the University of Houston.

“We believe these earthquakes are being caused by human activity, particularly related to oil and gas operations,” Rubinstein said, referring to last week’s increased seismic activity.

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Texas Oil Regulator Opens Probe After Earthquakes Hit The Permian

Obama Instigated Anti-Biden Coup With '25th Amendment' Threat; Sy Hersh Reports

Authored by 'Sundance' via TheConservativeTreehouse.com,

In popular lingo young people simply say, “that tracks.”  It’s a quick way of saying, new information makes sense with pre-existing information.

Investigative journalist Seymour Hersch writes on his substack [SEE HERE], an article outlying how his sources in Washington DC and the White House have confirmed to him that former President Barack Obama was the impetus to push Joe Biden out of the 2024 presidential race.

Seymour Hersh says President Obama was “deeply involved” with the alleged coup and called Joe Biden after his “incident” in Las Vegas, which, from all outward appearances, looks like a major slip and fall – with a significant hit to the head.

“I went over [reports] this week with a senior official in Washington who helped me fashion an account of a White House in complete disarray,” Hersh said.

“Obama called Biden after breakfast [on July 20] and said, ‘Here’s the deal. We have Kamala’s approval to invoke the 25th Amendment,'” a senior Washington official told Hersh. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries were reportedly directly involved.

Obama’s plan was to not to immediately endorse Kamala, but it was clear that she would “get the nod.” “[Obama] had an agenda and he wanted to seek it through to the end, and he wanted to have control over who would be elected.” (Hersch article encapsulated)

Not only does this outline track with every datapoint known about events leading up to the Biden announcement, it also aligns with the entire background of the Obama team operating inside the Biden administration.  Team Obama have always been in control.  Heck, the Obamas never even left Washington DC after their term in office.

The bigger understanding is in the final quote cited. 

“[Team Obama] had an agenda and he wanted to seek it through to the end, and he wanted to have control over who would be elected.”  This is the part where people forget the risk to Team Obama that has never gone away.

The Obama “fundamental change” was a construct of malicious intent.  Much of it fraught with unlawful activity only possible by weaponizing the various agencies and bureaus of the U.S. government.  Going all the way back to 2007 through 2017, that decade is filled with unlawful action by Barack Obama and the people behind him.  This is the core of their ongoing need for control, likely for a generation or more.

President Obama and his likeminded ideological foot-soldiers weaponized the federal system of government.  In every action from the moment he left office, Obama’s team have been working one long continuum of control in order to keep all of their prior activity hidden. 

The need for Kamala ‘brat’ Harris is simply another step in this long process to hide the activity.

The NSA Database was weaponized to conduct political surveillance.

The Dept of Justice was weaponized to target their political opposition.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation was weaponized to act as the police investigative units for those targets.

The Dept of Homeland Security was weaponized to control the evidence and information about their political targeting and surveillance.

The IRS was weaponized against Obama’s political opposition.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence was weaponized to allow the targeting radar to sweep internally against American citizens under the guise of national security and domestic terror threats.

The Central Intelligence Agency was weaponized allowing and permitting their “foreign surveillance” mandate to merge with the DHS internal surveillance mandate, while simultaneously the CIA conducted overseas political operations against the interests of sovereign countries.  All of their activity in ideological alignment.

The Defense Department was purged of patriotism, intentionally weakened through diversity equity and inclusion, and then boiled down to a flag corps of general willing to go along with the policy of Obama.

Main Justice through the National Security Division used FARA violations to target anyone who was determined a threat to the fundamental change, and Main Justice began wholesale Lawfare operations against Donald Trump and any entity who would dare align with him.

Hundreds of millions, likely billions, were funneled through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, The Green New Deal, The Inflation Reduction Act, and various legislative expenditures to foreign governments; those funds went directly into the bank accounts of Democrat donors and political activist groups.

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, the part the awakened American public can look into and see for themselves. Underneath the waterline, there’s tens of thousands of vested interests, inside and outside of Washington DC, operating to maintain the fundamental change that Obama created.  However, their defenses are weak and shallow, fraught with vulnerability and the endless need to avoid sunlight.

All of that scheming, rot, corruption and unlawful activity makes them vulnerable.  The need for control is a reaction to fear.  The ‘fundamental change’ group are fraught with fear.  That is why they consider the current political landscape as a zero-sum contest.

It tracks, it all tracks.

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Obama Instigated Anti-Biden Coup With '25th Amendment' Threat; Sy Hersh Reports

After Failed 1984-Style Censorship-Crusade, Paris Olympics Forced To Apologize For Woke Opening Ceremony

On Saturday, the organizers of the Paris Olympics scrambled to pressure social media platforms, such as X, to censor users who mocked and criticized Friday night's shocking Opening Ceremony. The event, which featured drag queens, nudity, and scenes deemed highly disrespectful to Christians, sparked outrage worldwide. When the International Olympic Committee's social media 1984-style censorship efforts failed (read: here), the committee had no choice but to apologize for the drag queen parody of Jesus' Last Supper on Sunday morning. 

Here's what shocked the world on Friday night during the Opening Ceremony: 

The 2024 Paris Olympics has gone full Woke dystopian.

The opening ceremony was filled with transgend*r mockery of the Last Supper, the Golden Calf idol, and even the Pale Horse from the Book of Revelation.

The Olympics has made it clear that Christian viewers aren't welcome. pic.twitter.com/LgawyE6YRX

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) July 26, 2024

God will not be mocked. This is blasphemy. All satanic. Boycott the Olympics. Go woke, go broke. Who is with me?

“And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the… pic.twitter.com/lzFAyDga1h

— Sassafrass84 (@Sassafrass_84) July 26, 2024

This Woke Shit Was what people had to Suffer at the Opening Ceremony of Paris Olympics 🤦‍♀️ #Olympics #OlympicGames #OlympicOpeningCeremony pic.twitter.com/UiUWbVRHFW

— Rosy (@rose_k01) July 27, 2024

"There was never an intention to show disrespect to a religious group," a Paris 2024 spokeswoman said, quoted by The Wall Street Journal. 

The spokeswoman continued, "If people have taken any offense, we are, of course, really sorry."

Denial of intent... 

Olympic organizers apologize to anyone who was offended during the opening ceremonies. It’s not really an apology though, it’s just another tiring attempt to say it was about inclusivity. It’s not inclusive when you mock billions of people’s religious beliefs. pic.twitter.com/xM305psf6y

— Ryan Gerritsen🇨🇦🇳🇱 (@ryangerritsen) July 28, 2024

Never intended to offend anyone?

What were the organizers thinking when they recreated the Biblical scene of Jesus Christ and his apostles with drag queens, a transgender model, and a naked singer made up as the Greek god of wine, Dionysus?

And this... 

The Paris Olympics deserve to be cancelled

Boycott this WOKE trash pic.twitter.com/xafQjv0xfU

— The Pleb 🇨🇦 Reporter (@truckdriverpleb) July 27, 2024

"We wanted to talk about diversity. Diversity means being together. We wanted to include everyone, as simple as that," the artistic director Thomas Jolly told reporters. 

Everyone except the Christians...

The woke mind virus is a phenomenon spreading like cancer across the Western world, infecting the youngest generations through public schools and activist corporations funding non-profits, as well as leftist politicians, who intend to install a new religion of woke. It's only natural for a competing religion to mock and attack the status quo, that being Christians, and that's exactly what occurred at the Games by the new religion rooted in Marxism.

Remember, the Olympics' planning phase takes years and tens of millions of dollars. For the Games spokesperson to now desperately claim that this opening performance was a big misunderstanding - insults the intelligence of the world, which was watching and left in disbelief. Even the French...

Last night's Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony even shocked the French.

pic.twitter.com/BIitQjifXW

— Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld_) July 27, 2024

So what about the mega-corporations who sponsored the Games? Where are their statements denouncing this absurdity?  

We assume boycotts are coming to these brands. 

Google Search trends for 'boycott Olympics' soared globally. 

Coming... 

Fellow Christian:

Can *you* please join me in a complete and total boycott of the blasphemous sickening satanic occult ritual formerly known as the Olympics?

Jesus Christ will not be mocked

We are the majority - let’s demonstrate power

Do not tolerate darkness

Do NOT watch pic.twitter.com/vtuJLaiWY0

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 27, 2024

The backlash this weekend makes it very clear: the majority of folks just want to watch sports without having the woke religion forced upon them. Keep politics and social issues out of sports, please.

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After Failed 1984-Style Censorship-Crusade, Paris Olympics Forced To Apologize For Woke Opening Ceremony

US 'Watching Closely' Venezuela Election After Maduro Warned Of 'Bloodbath' If He Loses

President Nicolas Maduro alarmed and riled his enemies as well as Washington and its allies by declaring just ahead of Sunday’s elections: "If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success and greatest victory in the electoral history of our people."

Many pundits are taking this as a warning that he'll refuse to give up power in the unlikely event he loses his bid for six more years in office, which would be his third term. While there are eight names total on the ballot as Venezuelans wait in long lines to vote Sunday, 74-year old opposition candidate and former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia is considered the only real contender who has a chance of defeating Maduro.

González is basically the surrogate candidate for María Corina Machado, who has organized the opposition and has become wildly popular, even recently gaining name recognition abroad and in US media.

Edmundo González Urrutia and Nicolás Maduro vote on Sunday.

Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) have ruled over the central American country since 2013, after he took over following the death of his mentor, far-left icon Hugo Chavez.

Millions of desperate citizens have already left their country in search of work and opportunities abroad amid a crushed economy and rampant accusations of corruption against Maduro government officials. Millions more may leave if his power is extended for another term.

Polls have seen massive queues since they opened at 6am, but already there are reports of barriers in pro-opposition areas and stories of black-clad, masked men blocking voting stations, as The New York Times has alleged. "The destiny of Venezuela depends on our victory," Maduro has proclaimed at campaign rallies, while decrying efforts of a hidden imperialist foreign hand to thwart his aims, as well as longtime US-led sanctions.

Both the United States and Brazil have issued messages of "we're watching closely":

Asked in a press briefing whether Maduro was likely to rig Sunday’s vote, John Kirby, White House national security spokesperson, said it was difficult to know how the situation would play out but that the U.S. wanted “to make it clear to Mr. Maduro that we’re watching, we’re watching closely.”

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has also urged Maduro to respect the results, telling international news agencies that he was “scared” by the Venezuelan’s recent remarks, Reuters reported.

Brazil’s president added that Maduro “needs to learn that when you win, you stay; when you lose, you leave.”

Very, very long queues to vote in Venezuela’s election today. Here’s a timelapse #VenezuelaVOTA #venezuela pic.twitter.com/l3jMQ4hZJH

— Catherine Ellis (@Cat_lucy1) July 28, 2024

Some analysts expect some degree of unrest and violence to break out no matter who emerges victorious, with either side set to contest.

"On the basis of their own exit polls, the opposition will probably declare victory and push for regime change, ushering in a period of heightened political tension and uncertainty ahead of the inauguration," Andre Masuko, a research analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, stated to CNBC.

President Nicolas Maduro ahead of Sunday’s elections: “If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success & greatest victory in the electoral history of our people.” pic.twitter.com/rao45c0NIC

— Vera Bergengruen (@VeraMBergen) July 24, 2024

"However, we do not expect the Maduro regime to be overthrown. His strict control over the country’s institutions, including the security forces, the judiciary and the electoral national council (CNE), will be instrumental in helping him to stay in power," he underscored.

One big unpredictable scenario of huge consequence is whether the US would throw its support behind any opposition allegations claims of widespread election abuse and fraud.

Meanwhile, the usual Neocon suspects in Congress are alleging a 'stolen' national election before the ballots are even in...

If the election in #Venezuela today is legitimate Maduro will lose by 40 points

But the election commission that counts the votes is controlled by the Maduro regime and they will do everything they can to try and steal it pic.twitter.com/EhxzGZjb1j

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) July 28, 2024

Washington weighing in too forcefully would set the stage for another anti-opposition crackdown by Maduro government security services.

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US 'Watching Closely' Venezuela Election After Maduro Warned Of 'Bloodbath' If He Loses

Update: The Greatest Political Experiment

Authored by Joel Bowman via substack,

“State intervention is always bad, because it’s based on coercion, on force, and nothing based on coercion can be good.”

~ Javier Milei, speaking at The Hoover Institution in May, 2024

Today we take a break from our road-tripping adventure to offer a quick update from the other End of the World...

Long time readers will recall our fascination over what we’ve been calling, with immodest grandiloquence, The Greatest Political Experiment of Our Age. 

The story so far is that, down at the southern end of the Americas, in our chosen country of self-exile, Argentina, the locals have sensibly chosen to “throw the bums out.” 

That is, in November of last year, the gauchos voted for a man who promised to finally cut their overfed Peronist government down to size. (He even campaigned with a chainsaw, to avoid confusion among the nuance-averse.)

Javier Milei was elected in a landslide and has since taken his motosierra to the thorny brambles of the State with admirable gusto (though, rather to this observer’s disappointment, the nation’s Banco Central, which Milei promised to burn to the ground, remains standing. Still, one lives in hope...)

Doomsday Mongers

The Argentine experiment is particularly interesting in that it represents the first time in modern history that a sizable population (Argentina is home to ~45 million mostly-carnivorous human beings) voluntarily, peacefully, voted to “cancel” their own state. Nor did El Presidente renege on his promise to do just that. 

On day one in office, Sr. Milei abolished or consolidated half the federal ministries, laying off tens of thousands of government parasites in the process and promising more of the same in the days ahead. And just last month, in a major legislative victory, his so-called “Ley de Bases” and fiscal reform package was signed into law, paving the way for sweeping privatization across multiple key industries along with much needed labor market deregulation.

Needless to say, bed-wetting nanny statists around the planet, from Buenos Aires to the DC Beltway to Brussels and beyond, promptly set about prophesying a doomsday scenario, whereby the proud republic of Argentina would shortly descend into a Dantean hellscape the likes of which the civilized world has never known. 

It is to their great and enduring dismay that such a scene has not materialized, though that hasn’t stopped them painting the picture in their newspaper columns just the same. Here’s the latest from our lease-mongering colleagues over in the popular presses...

The worst economic crisis in decades puts Argentine ingenuity to the test under President Milei ~ The Associated Press

Milei’s market honeymoon ends as investors question economic plan ~ The Financial Times

Milei’s Austerity Plan Pushes Argentina Into Recession in First Quarter ~ Bloomberg

And yet, despite having been bequeathed a raging currency conflagration, in which the hot potato peso was inflating at the fastest rate in the world, Milei has been able to avert that all-too-familiar path to catastrophe. Both general and core inflation have collapsed since Milei took office in December, with the latter plummeting from over 30% month-over-month to just 2.3% on a four week rolling basis (through July).

Trend Reversal

Not only that, but workers in the private sector are faring far better under Milei than when Sergio Massa (his main opponent in the presidential election) was serving as finance minister under the previous administration. 

In the first five months of last year, inflation handily surpassed private-sector wage growth (42.2% to 39.4%). Even as inflation rocketed in the back half of last year, wage growth now outpaces inflation (81.7% versus 71.9%). Here’s the chart:

(Tip ‘o the Hat to @OppenheimerAR)

Here is another look at the trajectory of real salaries – that is, adjusted for inflation – on the rise across the economy. (Milei assumed office on Dec. 9, 2023):

(Source: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics)

Drill, Baby, Drill!

Meanwhile, despite Argentina having the worst projected economic growth of any major economy this year (at least according to the IMF), it nonetheless continues to defy expert forecasts. 

Economic activity rose 1.3% for the month of July, the first month of positive GDP data since Milei assumed office and well above the 0.1% median growth estimates from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Year over year economic activity likewise surprised to the upside, shooting 2.3% higher and far exceeding the negative –2.5% expected by those same analysts. 

And here’s unconventional (shale) oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta oil fields, reaching an all time record... 

(Source: Secretaría de Energía, Argentina)

[Translation: Unconventional oil and gas production in Vaca Muerta registered a historical record in June. In that month, 372 thousand barrels of oil and 78 million m3 of gas were obtained per day.]

Of course, you’re unlikely to hear about any of this in the mainstream news. And that’s hardly surprising...

That Argentina’s success proceeds to the chagrin of rabid interventionists and meddling do-gooders around the world serves only to underscore just how important this experiment in free markets and free people truly is. Long may it continue. 

¡Viva la libertad, carajo!

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/27/2024 - 17:30
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Update: The Greatest Political Experiment

Ten Points About Post-Lockdown Economics

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

The sudden economic lockdown of March 2020, the world over, was one of the more shocking moments in history. The very core of the economic problem from the beginning of recorded time was getting more of what people needed to them in a way that was sustainable given the inherent scarcities of the state of nature. 

Regardless of the system, creating wealth was the stated goal, and humanity gradually discovered that trade, investment, marketing, and access to more via travel and creativity was the way forward. 

All in an instant, all those considerations were put on the back burner to combat what was supposed to be a deadly disease. What’s more, the belief was that ending economic activity, at least that deemed to be nonessential, was the path toward solving the health crisis. 

For how long? It was initially advertised to be two weeks. But as time went on and the lockdown period was extended longer and longer, it became clear that the whole point was to wait for a vaccine. This was based on the evidence-free supposition that the whole population was under threat and that the shot would fix the problem. 

The world economy crashed – entirely by intention and by force – as never before seen in modern times. As Trump said at the time, even as he greenlighted the lockdowns, no one had ever heard of anything like this. That’s because it is crazy and deeply dangerous. There is no such thing as turning a global economy off and then on again as if it had a breaker switch to pull and push again when the time came. 

Of the attempt, here are ten general observations about the results. 

1. The labor markets have never recovered. Both labor participation and employment/population ratios remain below what they were in 2019. Maybe this is the result of retirement. Maybe it is disability. Maybe it is just demoralization. Regardless, we never got back to normal. All the talk of the great job machine since 2021 is nothing but people finding work again after having been displaced during lockdowns or new people coming into the market. 

The job market has not been “hot” by any standard. Monthly data reports institutional surveys, which double count, but rarely household surveys which show continuing weakness. The divergence between the two has never been higher. We are nowhere near a pre-lockdown trend. 

2. Stimulus was wiped out by inflation. When the checks started arriving directly in bank accounts, people were doing absolutely nothing at home, and business was getting revenue from government even when their doors were closed, it seemed like some Nirvana had dawned. Riches were flowing from heaven. That lasted about 18 months. Once inflation came along, the purchasing power of those dollars was zapped away. Money creation had been on a level never before seen in modern times; some $6 trillion was created out of thin air to buy stunning amounts of debt. It was all taxed away in the most ancient scheme of tricking the public. 

3. Retail sales and wholesale factory orders are not up. Among all the usual data releases, only the GDP numbers are routinely adjusted for inflation. For most reports, you have to do that independently. Retail sales and factory orders are reported in nominal terms, which works fine in normal times but in inflationary times, this habit produces absurdities. It ends up clocking more spending on the same goods and services simply because everything is more expensive. 

EJ Antoni has been all over this point. Even adjusting usually severely underreported inflation shows that neither retail nor wholesale has genuinely risen. Again, these adjustments are based on conventional CPI data so the actual reality is much worse. 

4. Output has not increased. In the conventional telling, the lockdowns created an instant recession but it only lasted a couple of months. Once the stimulus was released and the economy opened up a bit, the boom reversed all the damage. We’ve been growing moderately ever since. 

In other words, the conventional data tells the story of the most implausible scenario, a beautiful lockdown that did no net damage but merely paused economic life until everything went back to normal. But what if this is completely wrong? How could it be? There are two major factors: the inclusion of government spending as constituting economic growth and an inflation adjustment that is lower even than the CPI, one crafted especially for use in national income statistics. 

Everyone knows today that the statistical prosperity of wartime in World War II was not real due to the inclusion of government as the main contributor to supposed economic output. Government debt as a percentage of GDP has reached and surpassed wartime levels in the last four years. This should tell us something important about the credibility of this seeming recovery. 

5. The inflation data is fake. According to the official data, the dollar of January 2020 has sustained 82 percent of its value, which is to say it has lost only 18 percent of value over four years. Think about this in your own life, based on your bills, your shopping, and what you can see with your own eyes. Think back to the good old days of 2019. In what world is it even vaguely plausible that the prices you pay (or consider paying but then decline to pay) have gone up only 18 percent? 

How is the CPI able to render price increases this low? Because the data excludes interest rates, homeowners insurance, taxes, shrinkflation, and added fees. Data on health insurance prices are adjusted downwards for medical consumption. The data on home prices is fed through a wildly complicated formula called homeowners equivalent rent. It has become a fantasy. In the chart below, the red line is excluded from CPI in favor of the blue line. 

Even on specifics, the Bureau of Labor Statistics can’t seem to reflect actual industry prices. The BLS has food prices up 26 percent since 2019. But industry data has grocery up 35 per. The least price increases are in retail liquor (11 percent), which is precisely why cocktails, wine, and beer are up so much at restaurants: it’s a good place to extract profit margins. 

Then you have the black box of hedonic adjustments, which allow bureaucrats to re-render the price of any product with changed quality with some perception that, after all, you don’t mind paying more for higher quality, so therefore it is not really increasing in price. 

Finally, you have the effective exclusion of most main forms of shrinkflation and added fees. How much does all this add to the CPI? We don’t really know. It’s not wildly impossible that real inflation over four years has been 30 percent or 50 percent or higher. Adjust all the other data for that and you gain a completely different picture of what is happening. 

6. Trade blocs have formed and will not save us. When all supply chains in the world froze in March 2020, and then gradually reopened based on national politics, we saw the fraying of 70 years of global integration. The chip manufacturers moved from supply for cars and other industrial goods in the US to laptops and gaming machines in the Asian sphere of influence. Soon after the opening, the US de-dollarized Russian assets, giving BRICS new incentive and energy to become more robust. For years later, the new shape of the world is becoming apparent: it’s all about spheres of political influence, thus shattering a driving force of global economic growth for many decades. 

7. Property rights are not secure. Never before in US history have so many small businesses been shut down coast to coast with such brutality. When they opened again, it was often only at throttled capacity, giving a huge boost to big over small restaurants and hotels. This was all a foundational attack on property rights, the very core of a functioning economic life. This surely shook the psychology of business formation nationwide. Though we have no empirical data on this, it is still the case that a state that attacks property this way cannot expect a thriving world of business startups. If your business can be shut down for such strange reasons, why start one at all? This is the sort of institutional problem that causes economic decay in imperceptible ways. 

8. The debt is out of control; personal, corporate, and government. Plenty of people have written about the problem of the government debt, the interest on which three-quarters of taxes are now directed to pay. 

The ship of corporate debt sailed long ago with the wild experiment in zero interest rates by the Federal Reserve after 2008. Rates were reversed to deal with inflation. The resulting high rates are deeply painful for any non-public business that depends on leverage for its operations: 

The consumer debt problem is more striking still: in times of high interest, savings should be going up, not down, and debt should be going down not up. The opposite is happening simply because real income is falling dramatically and has been for three years. Even using conventional CPI data, we have not yet recovered from the lockdowns. 

9. CBDCs are essential to the plan. A major ambition of the Covid response was the creation of a universal vaccine passport. It was deployed first in New York. The entire city was closed in all its public facilities to the unvaccinated. No one refusing the shot was permitted in restaurants, bars, libraries, or theaters. Boston then replicated the plan, and so did New Orleans and Chicago. It faltered because business complained and also the software failed, despite the tens of millions spent. All these efforts were reversed but the plan itself revealed the larger agenda: control through data collection and enforcement. The ambition is not gone and will likely come back but a better and more comprehensive path is the Central Bank Digital Currency, now being deployed in many parts of the world. It allows universal surveillance, timed currency expirations, and directed spending rationing to reflect political priorities. There is no question that the elites want this. 

10. Financial markets will thrive until they do not. So far, in the course of the last crazy four years, we have been spared a serious financial crisis either in stocks or banks. This is not entirely unusual in the midst of a wild expansion of money and credit. After hitting prices and wages, the new money flows into financials, the rise of which is seen as fantastic news rather than simple price inflation. That said, the stock market is not the economy. It bodes well for people invested and stockpiling retirement accounts but does nothing for Main Street wage and salary earners. 

The lockdowns amounted to the world’s largest and most elaborate economic head-fake in human history. It left the entire world less free and less prosperous, and with drained hopes that restoring normalcy can happen anytime soon. To add injury to the insult, most official institutions are manufacturing fake data to cover it all up. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/27/2024 - 16:20
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Ten Points About Post-Lockdown Economics

Israel Says "All-Out War" Imminent After Hezbollah Rocket Slams Into Soccer Field, 30 Casualties 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Israel Katz are holding emergency consultations with the country's senior defense leadership following a devastating Hezbollah rocket attack on the town of Majdal Shams in Israel's north which resulted in 30 casualties, including at least ten killed.

Nine victims among the several dozen injured are said to be in critical condition, many of them children, some as young as ten. Foreign Minister Katz told a state broadcaster, "There is no doubt that Hezbollah crossed all red lines."

Aftermath of deadly attack on soccer field, via Haaretz

He warned that "We are facing an all-out war" and added, "I have no doubt that we’ll pay a cost" - but also said an even greater toll will surely be exacted on Hezbollah.

The top diplomat further claimed in the comments that Israel will have "full backing" from the US and Europe in waging a bigger anti-Hezbollah campaign in Lebanon. Katz explained to Axios:

The Hezbollah attack today crossed all red lines, and the response will be accordingly. We are approaching the moment of an all-out war against Hezbollah and Lebanon.

We will pay prices, but at the end of the war Nasrallah and Hezbollah will be destroyed and the state of Lebanon will be severely damaged and we will restore peace and security to the residents of the north.

Rockets reportedly scored direct impact on a soccer field in the Israeli Druze town in the northern Golan region. The IDF military is probing why Israel's anti-air defenses didn't work upon the missile being inbound.

While for months hundreds of Hezbollah missiles and drones have rained down on northern Israel, it is much rarer for a missile to strike in the heart of a town or city.

Widely circulating video which was verified by the Times of Israel shows a large fireball upon impact:

Footage purportedly shows the moment the Hezbollah rocket struck a soccer field in the northern Druze town of Majdal shams, causing numerous casualties. pic.twitter.com/awfFomVEJ2

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) July 27, 2024

Amid the rising death toll, Hezbollah has later in the day issued a surprising statement insisting it was not behind the attack:

Hezbollah in a statement denies it launched rockets at Majdal Shams, in an attack that killed and wounded civilians, including children.

The terror group says it “has no connection to the incident at all, and categorically denies all false allegations.”

Hezbollah said earlier it launched dozens of rockets at an army base in the Golan Heights, near Majdal Shams.

Israel is charging that not only Hezbollah was definitely behind it, but that this attack has just greatly escalated the conflict. Meanwhile, recent days have seen new reports of fires breaking out in southern Lebanon due to Israeli strikes there.

In Gaza, Al Jazeera has the following latest developments:

• Gaza’s Health Ministry says at least 30 people have been killed after an Israeli bombing of Khadija School in Deir el-Balah. Israel claimed it targeted a “Hamas command and control centre”.
• The civil defence in Gaza says at least 170 people have been killed in Israel’s military incursion in Khan Younis since it began more than a week ago.
• The armed wing of Hamas says fierce battles are continuing in Gaza City and that its fighters struck an Israeli troop carrier surrounded by soldiers with an al-Yassin 105 rocket in the Tal al-Hawa neighbourhood.
• A rare Israeli air raid has taken place in the occupied West Bank, targeting the Balata refugee camp, east of Nablus. It killed a Palestinian man the army said was wanted.

📢 Galei Tzahal: 11 injured, including five critically (and six seriously), as a result of a Hezbollah drone crash in Majdal Shams.

Very severe incident. A direct hit on a soccer field, likely by a drone (not yet fully confirmed), occurred during a children's soccer game.
_ pic.twitter.com/mJw3sOEehi

— Israel News Pulse (@israelnewspulse) July 27, 2024

Israel's northern border has thus far since Oct.7 not slipped into all-out Israel-Hezbollah war, but this could mark the beginning of a broader conflict. The White House has long urged Israel to keep the fighting 'limited' and contained. The fear is that all of Lebanon could be engulfed if the IDF invades.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/27/2024 - 15:45
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Israel Says "All-Out War" Imminent After Hezbollah Rocket Slams Into Soccer Field, 30 Casualties 

Saving Our Democracy...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“Being insane is the new normal.”

- Aimee Terese on “X”

However it happened this week, “Joe Biden” passed the blowtorch to a new generation and got himself gone from the political battlefield. Delegates to the coming Democratic National Convention (August 19) were duly notified of the selected replacement, Veep Kamala Harris, and ordered to line up behind her.

Not a peep of disagreement was heard among them. Amazing that no one had a different idea. Thus, is democracy saved.

The curious details around this event remain shrouded in mystery.

Reporters for The New York Times and the WashPo could not be bothered to inquire, and their readers are not inclined to ask how all this came to be. It just is. In a culture with no sense of consequence, things just happen or un-happen. It is your duty to recognize that the wind now blows from another direction and bend with it.

One thing was obvious: the long-running prank of pretending that President “Joe Biden” is sound-of-mind fell apart after his mortifying appearance on the debate stage June 27th. Apparently, every last captain and foot-soldier in the Democratic Party ranks was taken completely by surprise to see their champion flicker out in real time, like a forty-watt bulb that has done years of duty on the front porch and suddenly leaves you in the dark. Three weeks followed with “Joe Biden” boldly campaigning as if nothing had happened. (Perhaps his mind did not register that things had changed.)

And then there was the weird tweet on “X” Sunday afternoon when the whole country was outside waterskiing, grilling weiners, carjacking, and yelling at ballparks, and the deed was done. Someone, possibly even “Joe Biden” himself, wrote a letter pasted into the tweet that declared he was bowing out of the race. The White House staff didn’t even know until it was up-and-posted. Rumor had it that Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama read the riot act to “JB”, who was refusing to follow the script. There were plenty of carrots-and-sticks to finally lever his obdurate ass into motion: not least must have involved any pending legal outcome of the family’s influence-peddling operations, whispers of new whistleblower accusations about offshore bank accounts, perhaps with sweeteners in the deal as to how much schwag the clan could still hold onto in the end.

Then, the valedictory speech on Wednesday, sort of a proof-of-life exhibition, to verify that Sunday’s janky tweet to the nation was for real. You heard a Homeric recitation of “JB’s” signal achievements in office, every one of them demonstrably false. He did not keep our country out of war, or grow the economy, or keep inflation down, or beat Big Pharma, or build anything, or defend personal freedoms, or “make it clear there is no place, no place in America for political violence or any violence ever.” (In fact, the very next day, Thursday, pro-Hamas mobs attacked US Park police and vandalized federal property at Washington’s Union Station, and on Friday all charges were dropped against them — while scores of J6 Capitol trespassers rotted for years in the DC jail.)

What “Joe Biden” actually accomplished in office was the near-total wrecking of the USA. He torpedoed the authority and legitimacy of just about every federal agency, turned the Department of Justice into a Gestapo, seeded the federal court benches with Woke lunatics, allowed an invasion of perhaps 20-million border-jumpers (including many thousands of professional terrorists), coerced injections of an ineffective and injurious vaccine into millions of citizens afraid of losing their livelihoods, promoted gross medical experiments on sexually troubled children, invited drag queens and mentally-ill degenerates to cavort in the White House, spent borrowed money at a rate that propelled the national debt past the event horizon into a black hole, made the seeking of incompetence the number one priority of the Pentagon, provoked a war in Ukraine that now teeters on the hazard of a nuclear exchange, and allowed the CIA to complete its takeover of the US government. “Joe Biden” will go down in history as the worst of all 46 US presidents.

And, of course, in the rush of cascading events the past several weeks came the attempted assassination of the Democratic Party’s nemesis, Mr. Trump, an operation festooned with loose threads, suspicious agency failures, and intimations of Deep State blob engineering. You’ll have to stand by on any of that resolving soon. But many Democrats expressed disappointment that Mr. Trump was not killed, since that would be saving our democracy.

Also not quite resolved is the case of who the Democratic Party truly intends to run for president this year as the days dwindle down to Nov. 5. The current delirium over Kamala Harris is like a relief rally in the financial markets when a crisis has been averted — or, at least, stalled. You have reason to doubt that the Democratic Party’s leadership crisis has actually been averted. Despite sedulous efforts to wipe her record, too many Americans know Kamala Harris as a hee-hawing ninny with a predilection for hapless Marxist fantasies. I’m not persuaded that she is at all comfortable in her sudden role as the party’s avatar. She is rumored to hit the bottle in moments of stress.

The Party of Chaos will supposedly run a “virtual roll call” of delegates August 1st in order to meet the requirements to get on the ballot in several states. But then comes the actual convention with live bodies in murmuration on the floor of the arena, and in the back rooms and hallways, and there are more than three weeks between now and then for Kamala Harris to remind the world what a cackling lightweight she is. A lot can happen between now and then.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/26/2024 - 16:20
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Saving Our Democracy...