Fed's Seasonal Shenanigans Continue As 'Adjusted' Domestic Bank Deposit Outflows Grow
Amid endless 'fuckery' by The Fed (a technical term used to describe the seasonal vs non-seasonal deposit flows, and their large adjustments over the last weeks), we look forward to seeing what Powell and his pals have for us.
As a reminder, the prior week saw bank deposits tumbled by $79.2BN (SA), biggest drop since March 22 as deposit flight returned...
Unadjusted, deposit drop was even bigger: $86.6BN
Which brings us to the latest week - which we would expect to see significant NSA outflows ahead of Corporate Tax day.
Instead - of course - we see inflows (on an SA and NSA basis).
Seasonally-adjusted, total deposits rose $17.6 billion in the week ending6/14
Source: Bloomberg
Non-seasonally-adjusted, Bank deposits rose $44.6 billion...
Source: Bloomberg
The figures are a little misleading since, on an SA basis, there was a large foreign bank inflow ($32.2 bn) while large domestic banks saw $17 billion in outflows (offset b a small $2.3 billion inflow to small banks)...
On an NSA basis, all cohorts saw inflows:
-
large domestic +$24.2BN
-
small domestic +$$9.8BN
-
foreign banks +$10.5BN
Which means overall, domestic banks saw OUTFLOWS of $14.6 billion (SA) and INFLOWS of $34 billion (NSA)
Source: Bloomberg
The most notable thing then is the largest foreign bank deposit inflows since July 2021...
Though, on a non-adjusted basis, things are a lot more 'normal'...
On the other side of the balance sheet, after a big decline last week in large bank loans, both small and large bank loans grew by around $8 billion each...
As a reminder, amid this deposit flight, banks are borrowing a record $102.7 billion at The Fed's emergency Bank Term Funding Program facility.
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