"We Are All On Borrowed Time": Here Is ChatGPT's Analysis Of The JOLTs Report
One look at a particularly green subset of tech stocks and it becomes clear that there is a lot of hype surrounding AI. Yet when we look at how ChatGPT can complement - or even overhaul - financial analysis, we are certain that many Wall Street jobs will soon vanish and be replaced with faceless (and much cheaper) AI algos.
As a reminder, three months ago, in our first foray into this arena, we asked ChatGPT to "Write A Taylor Swift Song About The Volatile Macro Market." The result was impressive.
Now, Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky has done something similar, this time evaluating AI's ability to replace Wall Street economists, by asking it to provide an analysis and assessment of yesterday's JOLTS report (something we did here). The results below demonstrate that the one category this subset of Wall Street workers should be very concerned about is the coming spike in the unemployment rate. As the Goldman trader puts it: "we are all on borrowed time."
Here is Privorotsky:
I fed ChatGPT a selection of the Jolts data and asked it whether the Jolt data was consistent with a decelerating or accelerating economy, this is what it came up with…we are all on borrowed time:
“This data is more consistent with a decelerating economy. A decelerating economy is typically characterized by a slowdown in growth, and the data provided indicates several signs of such a slowdown:
Decrease in job openings: Total private job openings decreased by 599,000 from January 2023 to February 2023, suggesting fewer opportunities for job seekers and potentially slower growth.
Decrease in hires: Total private hires decreased by 145,000, indicating that companies might be more cautious about expanding their workforce, which could be a sign of a decelerating economy.
Decrease in layoffs and discharges: A decrease in layoffs and discharges could be a positive sign for the economy, as it might indicate lower unemployment. However, when combined with the decrease in job openings and hires, it could also suggest that companies are more hesitant to let employees go due to the uncertainty of finding new hires in a potentially slowing economy.”
me: there anything obvious here about small business compared to large companies?
Yes, there are some differences between small businesses and large companies in the data provided:
Job Openings: Small businesses with 1-9 employees saw a significant decrease in job openings from January 2023 to February 2023 (-198,000), with the job openings rate declining by 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, larger companies (1,000-4,999 employees) experienced a slight increase in the job openings rate (0.1 percentage points) during the same period.
Hires: Small businesses (1-9 employees) had a slight increase in hires (+17,000) from January 2023 to February 2023. On the other hand, larger companies (50-249 employees and 250-999 employees) experienced a decrease in hires during the same period (-174,000 and -94,000, respectively).
Layoffs and Discharges: Small businesses (1-9 employees) experienced a significant decrease in layoffs and discharges (-110,000) from January 2023 to February 2023. Larger companies (50-249 employees) also saw a decrease in layoffs and discharges (-103,000), but the change wasn't as drastic as in small businesses.
These differences suggest that small businesses might be facing more significant challenges compared to larger companies. The larger decrease in job openings and the significant decline in layoffs and discharges in small businesses may indicate a higher level of uncertainty and potentially more vulnerability in the face of a decelerating economy. However, it's important to consider other factors and data points to have a comprehensive understanding of the overall business environment for both small and large companies."
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