If Trump Wins, Guess Who Will Be In Charge Of Certifying The Election?

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Do you know who will be in charge of certifying this election?  In January 2021, it was Vice-President Mike Pence, and we all remember how that turned out.  Well, an even more interesting scenario is shaping up this time around.  In January 2025, Vice-President Kamala Harris will be in charge of certifying the election.  In other words, if Donald Trump wins the person that he was running against will be in charge of certifying his victory.  This is a major defect in our system, and it could potentially set the stage for widespread chaos if things do not go smoothly.

With each passing day, a Trump victory is looking even more likely.

For example, a brand new Gallup survey has found that the percentage of Americans that identify as Republicans has jumped by four points since late September…

With just 20 days left until Election Day, a new Gallup poll has revealed a concerning trend for Democrats.

According to the poll, more Americans are identifying as Republicans or independents, with fewer calling themselves Democrats. Conducted from October 1-12, the poll shows a significant shift in political affiliations since mid-September, causing potential challenges for Democrats ahead of the crucial vote.

The data shows that 31% of respondents now identify as Republicans, marking a 4-point increase from the previous poll conducted in late September. Meanwhile, only 28% of Americans consider themselves Democrats, a 3-point drop over the same period. The number of independents, while still holding a significant share at 41%, dropped by 1%.

Another new survey shows that national support for Trump has risen dramatically since early August…

The presidential race is swinging in former President Donald Trump’s direction, according to a national poll released by Marquette.

The latest survey shows both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tied with 50 percent support each in a two-way race with leaners included. This reflects a four-point swing in Trump’s direction, as the last poll — released August 1 — showed Harris up by four points, garnering 52 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent support.

The survey also took a look at the results with a “full field” and found Harris up by a single percentage point — 48 percent to Trump’s 47 percent support. Another four percent said “other.” For greater perspective, the last survey showed Harris up by eight points in the full field, with 50 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.

Right now we are seeing so much enthusiasm for Trump, and the same cannot be said for Harris.

When MSNBC visited one early voting location in Arizona, they could not find a single person that voted for Harris…

MSNBC visits an early voting location in Arizona.

Trump voters are everywhere — ‘We did not find a single person who would tell us they voted for Kamala Harris.’

Things are not looking very good for the Harris campaign at this stage.

If she loses, she will literally be tasked with certifying the election that she has just lost…

The vice president oversees the counting of Electoral College votes and announces the results. They can still do this if they are a presidential candidate and it’s happened multiple times throughout history.

Both the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and federal law say the president of the Senate, which is a role that’s filled by the vice president, oversees the count of electoral votes.

According to Politico, Harris has promised that “she won’t interfere” with a peaceful transition of power…

On Jan. 6, 2025, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to preside over Congress and count the electoral votes that will make either her — or Donald Trump — the 47th president of the United States.

And like her predecessor Mike Pence, who resisted enormous pressure from Trump to upend the 2020 election results, Harris says she won’t interfere.

Hopefully that is true.

But would she really just stand aside and hand the presidency to a man that she has described as a “threat to democracy”?

Just consider what Harris said about Trump earlier this week…

“A second Trump term is a huge risk for America. He is increasingly unstable and unhinged. And he is out for unchecked power and control over your lives”

If she truly believes that Trump is going to end democracy in the United States, wouldn’t she feel compelled to take action?

That is a question that a lot of people will be asking.

Already, many on the left are suggesting that the 14th Amendment could be used to block Trump from taking office.

The following is what Section 3 of the 14th Amendment says…

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

I really hope that Democrats do not consider such a course of action if Trump wins the election.

And I really hope that we see a very peaceful transfer of power no matter who wins.

Unfortunately, many of our leaders continue to make statements that are not helpful at all.

For example, Joe Biden just said that he is very much looking forward to seeing Donald Trump get sentenced and put away…

Joe Biden said the quiet part out loud and admitted that his DOJ is working to jail Trump after the election.

“The same guy who has three other major cases waiting for him when he loses,” Biden said referring to Jack Smith’s federal cases against Trump.

“And by the way, 34 felonies,” Biden said after he sent his DOJ hatchetman Matthew Colangelo to New York to get Trump.

“He got the sentence kicked back, but I want to watch that sentence,” Biden gleefully said hoping Trump is jailed.

If Donald Trump loses this election, he is going to go to prison for the rest of his life.

So the truth is that this election means everything to Trump.

Of course this election also means everything to tens of millions of Americans on both sides of the political spectrum.

No matter what the outcome is, I fear that there will be unprecedented chaos in our streets.

Hopefully I am wrong about that.

Hopefully cooler heads will prevail.

But in our current political environment, I am certainly not optimistic about what is ahead.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/17/2024 - 15:05
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If Trump Wins, Guess Who Will Be In Charge Of Certifying The Election?

Beware Of War Hawks In "America First" Clothing

Authored by Connor O'Keefe via The Mises Institute,

For the past eight years, the two major political parties have been gripped by a messy and ongoing realignment. It began with the election of Donald Trump in 2016, which was a major repudiation of the neoconservative-establishment coalition that had dominated the Republican Party since the presidency of George W. Bush.

Trump’s condemnation of the war in Iraq—which he correctly said was sold on lies—and his skepticism of continuing to fund radical Islamists in a misguided attempt to overthrow the government in Syria drove some of the staunchest Bush-era neoconservatives to leave the Republican Party and do everything they could to keep Trump out of power. It didn’t work.

Trump’s four years in office only accelerated the realignment.

By the time the 2020 election rolled around, the political establishment had awakened and thrown its entire weight behind Joe Biden.

Of course, Donald Trump stuck around after leaving office and is now, for the third time, the Republican nominee for President.

This election cycle has seen the same establishment support for Trump’s opponents that we’ve seen previously, along with “defections” from former high-level Republicans like W. Bush’s own Vice President Dick Cheney.

Whether we’re seeing a permanent change in the Republican Party or a temporary coalition against one candidate will rest on what happens on and after election day next month.

But it’s clear that, at least for the time being, the neoconservative domination of the American Right has dissipated.

Given how damaging the neoconservatives were to the well-being and security of the American people, this is a very positive development. But critics of Washington’s hyper-aggressive foreign policy need to understand that the flight of many of the worst war hawks from the Republican Party does not mean the GOP has returned to its non-interventionist roots. In fact, as many interventionists have fled, others have remained. And those interventionist elements are working hard to bring back the same old neoconservative foreign policy under the guise of a new “America First” doctrine.

Over the summer, former national security advisor Robert O’Brien penned a lengthy feature in Foreign Affairs that aimed to do just that. O’Brien was a representative to the UN during the George W. Bush presidency, and he worked at the State Department under both Bush and Barack Obama before leaving to work as an advisor on Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign. He’s an establishment creature if there ever was one. Still, he was appointed as Trump’s National Security Advisor in 2019 and is now seen as a contender for a cabinet position if Trump wins again.

O’Brien presents his article as “making the case for Trump’s foreign policy.” But despite being dressed up in some new language, the agenda he presents is largely the same old establishment interventionism.

In O’Brien’s view, Iran, China, and Russia are the three great enemies that can only be dealt with through a more aggressive stance from Washington. American taxpayers need to be forced to pay more for sharp increases in military hardware, especially for the Navy, to put pressure on Iran and China. Heavy sanctions and crackdowns on trade are prescribed to isolate and denigrate the regimes in Tehran and Beijing. O’Brien also calls for the US to more aggressively support foreign dissident movements that threaten these rival governments.

Even the war in Ukraine, on which Trump has been relatively good, is framed as having only happened because the US was not intervening enough in Eastern Europe in recent years. O’Brien does quickly mention that Trump wants a negotiated end to the war, but quickly moves on to celebrate all the lethal aid that’ll be sent to Ukraine and all the American military units that will be moved closer to Russia.

And O’Brien isn’t alone. Many right-wing commentators and influencers have tried to capitalize on all the populist energy driving the Trump movement to bolster their careers while sneaking in a standard establishment foreign policy. That could be seen at the so-called National Conservatism conference back in July, where a number of these figures got together and framed Iran and China as the chief threats facing the American public.

For decades, the American people have been forced to pay an enormous amount of money and to divert a tremendous amount of resources to counter a superpower that collapsed because communism cannot work, build a country from the top down in Afghanistan, overthrow the government of Iraq, and to try to topple several other countries to correct for the destabilizing effects of overthrowing that government in Iraq, all while militarizing the countries around Iran, Russia, and China in a vain attempt to get those governments to calm down.

These ventures have made the political establishment very wealthy, but all at the expense of the economic well-being and general safety of the rest of us. In recent years, many Americans on the right have finally begun to wake up to all this. The same old establishment lies cannot be allowed to lull them back to sleep.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/16/2024 - 16:20
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Beware Of War Hawks In "America First" Clothing

Stagflation Odds Jump In Latest NY Fed Survey As Inflation Expectations Rise, Delinquency Fears Hit 4 Year High

In recent weeks, we have discussed on multiple occasions (here, here and here) how in his desire to get Kamala Harris re-elected by rushing out a jumbo cut before November 5, Fed president Jerome Powell may have triggered the second coming of the Arthur Burns "galloping inflation" Fed, and sure enough recent inflationary prints have certainly raised the threat that the Fed is now aggressively easing even as inflation has not only not been defeated, but is once again rising.

Then overnight, it was Deutsche Bank's chief credit strategist Jim Reid who observed that US 5yr inflation swaps have seen their "largest 5-week climb since just before SVB's collapse in March 2023, an event that shifted the narrative away from around 4 more hikes to imminent cuts for a period of time."

To be fair, it's not just the 50bps Fed easing in itself that has changed the inflation and rates outlook over the last few weeks. We’ve also seen 1) expectations that the ECB will move more aggressively; 2) renewed geopolitical risk and a potentially large China stimulus turn the Oil price (and other commodities) higher after a late summer slump; 3) a bumper payrolls report; and 4) still generally firm US data, including an upside surprise in the CPI last week.

Then again, these are all dynamics that the Fed should have considered before it launched an aggressive easing cycle at a time when stock prices are at all time highs, when wage inflation ~5%...

... and when home prices are still rising at a mindblowing 6%!

It is therefore not surprising that the latest monthly survey of consumer expectations from the NY Fed found that inflation expectations rose at both the three-year horizon (from 2.5% to 2.7%) and the five-year horizon (from 2.8% to 2.9%), and remained unchanged at the one-year horizon (where they are driven primarily by recent moves in gas prices).

And the reason why the short-term inflation expectations were unchanged - if at the Fed's raised inflation target of 3% - is because the median respondent saw gasoline up "only" 3.4% over the next 12 months, the least in two years. Expected food inflation ticked higher after falling in August to the lowest level since pre-pandemic, while expectations for rental inflation moderated to 6.3%. Median home price growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%. Some other year-ahead commodity price expectations: an increase of 0.1% for food to 4.5%, college prices remained unchanged at 5.9%; medical care cost expectations dropped by 1.4% to 6.6% (the lowest reading since February 2020).

And while inflation expectations rose, sentiment about the broader economy deteriorated as perceptions among households that they might become delinquent on debts increased last month to the highest levels since April 2020.  The anticipated probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose to 14.2% in September, marking the fourth straight month of increases; the increase was most pronounced for respondents between ages 40 and 60 and those with annual household incomes above $100k.

The latest data confirms the view that the US economy is becoming increasingly split as some households do well while others are getting crushed by rising prices, slower growth and higher unemployment. In other words, stagflation. 

While the orchestrated surge in the stock market - and one has the Fed's recent rate cut to thank for that - has helped propel overall household net worth to a record over the past few months, tens of millions of Americans do not own any equities and have instead been accumulating debt in recent years amid elevated interest rates.

The increased odds of delinquency were mirrored in a broader deterioration of perceptions about households’ current financial situations, with fewer consumers reporting being better off and more reporting being worse off than a year ago, according to the survey.

Sticking with the stagflation theme, year-ahead household income and spending growth expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively.

There was slightly more cheer in consumers' labor market expectations, where the probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next twelve months increased to 20.4% from 19.1%, and the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the event of job loss increased to 52.7% from 52.3% in August.

Hilariously, median year-ahead expected growth in government debt declined by 1.1 percentage points to 8.0%, reaching the measure’s lowest level since February 2020. Spoiler alert: it will be much, much higher.

And confirming that many of the respondents are absolutely clueless, the mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 25.1%. Yes, about 25% of households have no idea that the Fed is now cutting rates and rates on savings accounts will be much lower in 12 months... unless of course we get hyperinflation in the next 3-9 months and the Fed panics into a hiking frenzy

Last but not least, the mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.0 percentage point to 40.3%. It was unclear how many bulls also expected lower rates in the coming year.

Overall, an ugly, stagflationary survey, and hardly what the Fed may have expected to see several weeks into the first easing cycle since the global economy was shut down by a genetically engineered flu virus in 2020.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/15/2024 - 15:00
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Stagflation Odds Jump In Latest NY Fed Survey As Inflation Expectations Rise, Delinquency Fears Hit 4 Year High

Google Agrees To Buy Nuclear Power From Small Modular Reactors To Be Built By Kairos Power

First it was Amazon, then Microsoft, now Google telegraphs why the "next AI trade" will generate obnoxious amounts of alpha in the coming years by sending the same message: i) it's all about how all those data centers will be powered, and ii) in the future a growing number of data centers will be powered by small modular nuclear reactors.

On Monday, Google - picking up on what we discussed last week in "Google Turns To Nuclear To Power Its Data Centers" - announced plans to buy power from Kairos Power’s small modular reactors (SMRs) as part of a growing industry shift toward nuclear energy to meet rising data center demands. By purchasing energy from multiple SMRs, Google aims to send a strong market signal while supporting long-term commercialization.

According to CNBC, senior director for energy and climate at Google, Michael Terrell, said on a call with reporters that "we believe that nuclear energy has a critical role to play in supporting our clean growth and helping to deliver on the progress of AI."

"The grid needs these kinds of clean, reliable sources of energy that can support the build out of these technologies. … We feel like nuclear can play an important role in helping to meet our demand, and helping meet our demand cleanly, in a way that's more around the clock."

Only three SMRs are operational worldwide currently, none in the U.S.... but that's going to change.

SMRs offer a cheaper, faster alternative to traditional reactors. Kairos Power, backed by the Department of Energy, is building a demonstration reactor in Tennessee. Google expects the first reactor online by 2030, adding 500 megawatts by 2035.

"It is an incredibly promising bet, and one that, you know, if we can get these projects to scale and then scale globally, will deliver enormous benefits to communities and power grids around the world," Terrell said of backing nuclear power companies. 

The news came just hours after we pointed out the short interest in one of our favorite SMR names, Sam Altman-backed Oklo, on the rise. Oklo has targeted its first SMRs to be online by 2027, three years ahead of Kairos' proposed timeline.  

OKLO shorts decided to double down and push short interest to new all time high https://t.co/NkPjAtCrVj pic.twitter.com/1uJpbhfHjI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2024

Today's news should not come as a surprise: less than a week ago we quoted Amanda Peterson Corio, global head of data center energy at Google, who said that “in the US, in highly regulated markets where we don’t have the opportunity to directly purchase power, we are working with our utility partners and the generators to come together to figure out how we can bring these new technologies — nuclear may be one of them — to the grid."

Separately, we ALSO wrote at the beginning of this month that the U.S. had closed on a $1.5 billion loan to resurrect Holtec's Palisades Nuclear Plant. The report at the time said that the Biden administration aims to triple U.S. nuclear power capacity as demand rises and climate concerns grow.

Meanwhile, we recently wrote that Oklo announced it had finalized an agreement with the Department of Energy to advance the next phase of sitting at the Idaho National Lab. 

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has also been urging for Three Mile Island to reopen as quickly as possible. Following Microsoft's agreement to purchase power from the dormant nuclear plant, Shapiro urged regulators to prioritize the reactor's connection to the electrical grid, according to Barron’s.

The latest news out of Google provides substantial tail wind for our "Next AI Trade" which we laid out in April as our favorite long-term trade, and where we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, playing out.

The stellar returns of the trade in 2024 so far are just the start: as more capital is allocated to "those who provide the electricity to those who sell the picks and shovels for the next gold rush", the basket will blow away every other segment of the market, and the biggest winners will be not those who bet on the revolutionary technology that is AI, but those who backed something much more primitive: the electricity needed to power it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/14/2024 - 15:40
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Google Agrees To Buy Nuclear Power From Small Modular Reactors To Be Built By Kairos Power

Donald Trump Says He's Doing The Joe Rogan Podcast

During an interview on the Nelk Boys' Full Send Podcast, Donald Trump said he plans to appear on the Joe Rogan Experience, according to the Washington Examiner. 

When asked by host Kyle Forgeard if he would consider going on Rogan’s podcast, Trump responded last week: “Oh sure, I think I’m doing it actually." He later confirmed, "Yeah, I am."

Rogan has yet to confirm the booking, the Examiner noted. The discussion seemed to start last week after this article noting Rogan was running out of time to interview Trump. Elon Musk sent the discussion to the stratosphere when he said last week: "It will happen". 

Musk made the post responding to our article, "Joe Rogan Has 25 Days To Interview Donald Trump", submitted by Zero Hedge contributor Quoth the Raven, who wrote on Tuesday: "I can't listen to another 4 years of Rogan bitch about how bad things have gotten if he won't talk to Trump."

Rogan has been notoriously uninterested in the interview, which he has been asked about multiple times over the last half decade. Back in June 2023, when asked about the idea, Rogan said to Lex Fridman:

"I have had the opportunity to have him on my show, more than once, and I have said no every time. I don't want to help him, I'm not interested in helping him."

By August 2023, it looked like Rogan might be changing his tune, as he told Valuetainment's Patrick Bet-David:

"I don't know. Maybe. At a certain point in time. Just like, it would be interesting to hear his perspective on a lot of things.”

Since then, Rogan has stated his admiration for RFK, Jr., who is now supporting Trump. He has also given a platform to Tulsi Gabbard, who is campaigning with, and for, Trump. The idea that Rogan wouldn't interview Trump, who has recently done podcasts with Theo Von and Andrew Schultz, to name a few, seems bizarre. 

QTR wrote on his blog last Tuesday night that "If anything, an interview would give Rogan an opportunity to push Trump on the things that he disagrees with him on. Bring him on and give him hell if you want, Joe. Rogan could even extend an invitation to the Harris campaign and invite her on for a separate appearance if she wants."

"I don’t want to pretend to understand what the problem is that Rogan has with Trump, but all I know is that it’s not bigger than the potential consequences of this election," he wrote.

"After listening to Rogan’s podcast for nearly 2,000 episodes, I’m confident in my assessment that he’s a person of integrity and a man of character. The truth is, whether he likes it or not, putting his personal animus aside and getting Trump on the largest media platform in the world can only make an impact for the next month or so."

He concluded: "After the November election, especially if Trump loses, there will be no point — and it’ll be impossible to listen to Rogan crow about the lunatics on the left any further, knowing he didn’t talk to Trump when he had the chance. So let’s get real, Joe: what the hell are you waiting for?"

We may have our answer soon...

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Donald Trump Says He's Doing The Joe Rogan Podcast