CNN Sees Metric That Looks 'Darn Good' For Republicans Before The Midterms

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten reported Wednesday that voter registration data in four swing states favors Republicans heading into the November midterms. This measure runs counter to polling showing Democrats ahead.

Enten told anchor John Berman that Republicans have improved their party registration margin relative to Democrats by 4 to 8 points in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania since the midpoint of President Donald Trump's first term. The comparison covers the eight years between the 2018 midterms and the current cycle and draws on state registration records, which count voters who have signed up with each party. Polls, by contrast, estimate how a sample of respondents say they plan to vote, and pollsters weight those results using their own assumptions about who will turn out.

"When you take a look at how people are actually registering — this is not polling data — compared to where we were eight years ago, Republicans are doing considerably better [than the Dems] in what are the swing states," Enten said on CNN.

Berman then asked whether the picture changes over a shorter window. He noted that the baseline for the comparison was 2018 and that polling over the past two years has moved toward Democrats.

Enten said the registration numbers do not show a matching shift in either Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, or Arizona. "There may be some tiny late gains that are going on right now, right, that I think over the last month maybe Democrats are gaining. But when you take the longer term view versus the 2024 election in which Republicans won all of these states, Democrats are, in fact, not actually gaining ground."

Berman said viewers have seen some upward movement for Democrats in the past couple of months. Enten agreed that the recent movement exists, but the problem for the Democratic Party is that it does not approach the size of the Republican gains.

"There's been some ticks up, but they, in no way, blows away the Republican gains," he said.

Asked to place the numbers in historical context, Enten said the four states share a common result. According to his analysis, the GOP holds its best party registration position relative to Democrats in a midterm year in at least 20 years in each of those swing states.

"The bottom line is this, Republicans, right now, are in a much stronger position than they have been, not just compared to eight years ago, but over the long term as well, the relative health of the Republican Party, at least in terms of party registration, is pretty gosh darn good relative to the Democrats," Enten said.

Florida makes a great case study for this trend. Up until the Trump era, Florida was considered a key swing state, but thanks to Republican registration gains in recent years, it is roughly as Republican as Texas. Trump won both states by double digits in 2024.

"I remember when Florida was a swing state," Enten said. "The bottom line is that Florida has had major gains for Republicans in party registration, and it's reflected in the races in which people are running."

Should note the GOP is in its best position on party registration (i.e. not polls) going into a midterm in 20+ years. In total, the Dems have not gained ground since 2024 in key swing states (AZ, NV, NC, or PA). The GOP has gained big ground since Trump's 1st midterm in all 4. https://t.co/KXK7zc5dFY

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 7, 2026

All four states in Enten's comparison went to Trump in 2024, and each has competitive races on the ballot this year. Enten did not say how much of the Republican registration advantage he expects to carry over into turnout. Still, if even a fraction of those new Republican voters show up on Election Day, pollsters may find themselves explaining another miss.

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CNN Sees Metric That Looks 'Darn Good' For Republicans Before The Midterms

Obama & The 'Sinister Shadowland' Behind Our Politics?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via kunstler.com,

The Ripening

"Everybody's restless and they got no place to go / Someone's always trying to tell them something they already know / So their anger and resentment flow."

- Warren Zevon, Mohammed's Radio

In the stark October light, events and personalities skulk in the shadows like scavengers in an orchard of poison fruit. The dread builds as the dooryards get populated with the motorized effigies of blood-beasts, werewolves, phantoms, and ghouls. Halloween and Election Day have become the conflated celebration of a national death trip. How has it come down to our country, in a crucial election, seriously entertaining the antics of jihadis and Jacobin riffraff?

Some somebodies are orchestrating this frightful show from the sinister shadowland behind our politics. My guess would be Barack Obama and John Brennan, with a whole lot of help from a supporting cast of entrenched Deep State racketeers enlisted in their service, with their status and livelihoods at stake. Mr. Obama acts as if he is untouchable, probably due to being the personification of Liberalism's "Best Camper" trophy it gave itself to validate the Civil Rights struggle session of the century gone by. We are good people, we really are, and President Obama is proof positive of our goodness!

The truth is, we know next to nothing about his real origins and his journey to power. His family on his mother's side was pure CIA-connected, and his actual father is rumored to be Frank Marshall Davis (1905-1987), a Black American poet, journalist, and labor activist who was a member of the Communist Party USA - not the Kenyan Barack Hussein Obama, Sr. He went from nonentity to myth with no intervening storyline that makes any sense, just a set of rapid promotions with missing events between them: Occidental College in LA to Columbia U to Harvard Law to Chicago politics to Illinois State Senate, straight to the US Senate, and then, bang, into the White House only four years into his first Senate term.

At every stage along the way he was somebody's chore boy. But whose? My guess would be US Central Intelligence. . . that he was groomed to be the untouchable front man looking out for the agency's interests in dicey times. His quick political rise coincided with the rise of John Brennan through the ranks of the CIA. Early on, Brennan was drawn to Arabic culture, sojourned in Egypt as a student, and later served as the CIA's station chief in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He speaks Arabic fluently and is rumored to have converted to Islam (from Catholicism), though it has never been proven. At a 2010 New York University forum, he praised "the goodness and beauty of Islam."

The CIA, I would suppose, is composed of two great clans: one is made of the employees actually carrying out real intel-gathering and analysis. The other is of employees (current and former) looking out for the CIA's own black op activities and the immense fortunes connected with it - with plenty of overlap between the two clans. I'd guess that John Brennan, who was CIA Director between 2013 and 2017 (under President Obama), still runs a large rogue contingent of the CIA clan that does the black ops, sits on a large fortune, and acts like a sovereign organism outside the control of the elected US government.

That would explain why no one has been held accountable for the ten-year-long coup against Donald Trump. Brennan, and the forces he represents, appear to be outside the control of the regular government, including the DOJ and FBI, and to some extent able to control people throughout government by subterfuge, intimidation, and blackmail. All that nearly came apart during Donald Trump's first term with the bungled RussiaGate caper followed by the bungled Impeachment No. 1 operation. But Brennan's dark CIA clan triumphed with the 2020 election "victory" of non compos mentis "Joe Biden," followed by the successful Jan 6, 2021, fake "insurrection" at the US Capitol.

They stumbled badly again with the patently ridiculous court cases against former President Trump in 2023 and 2024. And now here we are in the middle of Mr. Trump's second term, with a titanic struggle going on, largely out of public view, for the soul of the nation. John Brennan is still at large, but a month ago he was served with a subpoena to appear before a federal grand jury in the Southern District of Florida. It looks like he will finally have to do some 'splainin' about events he's been involved with. You can be sure that President Trump means to see that it happens - whatever was signified by the departure of Joe diGenova last month.

It's also my guess that former President Obama has become John Brennan's hostage. He was probably assigned to run "Joe Biden's" fake presidency using Susan Rice and other party functionaries to carry out orders. Brennan surely has a dossier on Barack Obama that fills in the blanks in his sketchy biography, including Mr. Obama's secret sexual activities on the Chicago scene back in the day. Meanwhile, the former president has his electioneering duties to attend to, to try to flip the House and Senate so as to have one last go at defenestrating the man in the White House who threatens to put Brennan, Obama & Company out of business.

So, there's a war on backstage. The war itself has been mythologized by those actually paying attention to it, sometimes as the contest between "Globalists" and "Sovereigntists" or "Black Hats" versus "White Hats" or the Legions of Satan versus the God-loving followers of Jesus. . . Jihad v. Western Civ. However you characterize it, everyone feels the tension as though the current phase of this Fourth Turning is an unbearable space between the life and death of the nation. Hence, all the ghouls in the dooryards, reminding us to stay. . . very. . . scared.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

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Wells Fargo Faces Federal Probe Over $60 Billion Commitment To Black Homeownership

Wells Fargo is facing a federal investigation over mortgage programs designed to increase homeownership among Black Americans, as the Trump administration expands its campaign against corporate policies that make distinctions based on race, according to the Wall Street Journal.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the Department of Housing and Urban Development is examining whether the bank's lending practices gave certain borrowers advantages because of their racial backgrounds, potentially running afoul of federal housing discrimination laws.

The controversy stems from a series of commitments Wells Fargo made beginning in 2017, including a plan to provide $60 billion in financing aimed at helping 250,000 additional Black Americans purchase homes over the following decade. The bank later introduced refinancing assistance targeting minority households, partly in response to criticism of its mortgage approval record.

The WSJ writes that by the end of 2023, Wells Fargo had delivered roughly 40% of the financing it originally promised. Its refinancing initiative had also reached approximately 5,100 borrowers, reducing their monthly payments by an average of $100. The bank has since largely stopped promoting these programs publicly.

HUD Secretary Scott Turner argued that the bank's approach raises serious questions about whether Americans were being treated differently because of their race, regardless of the programs' stated intentions.

“Even if Wells Fargo did not violate the law, its practice of dividing Americans based on race is immoral, unethical and un-American,” Turner said.

The investigation comes as Washington takes a more aggressive approach toward diversity-related corporate policies that became widespread following the racial justice protests of 2020. Other major companies, including IBM and Deloitte, have already reached multimillion-dollar settlements involving allegations tied to diversity considerations in employment decisions.

Federal housing officials are reportedly looking into comparable lending initiatives at other banks as well, suggesting Wells Fargo may be only the beginning of a much wider examination of race-conscious financial programs.

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Survey: Young Democratic Women Far More Likely To Blame Men For Their Problems

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

A recent survey shows that a majority of young, Democratic women believe that "the challenges that women face in American society" are due in great part to the behaviors or actions of men.

Breitbart reports that data from the Survey Center on American Life offers a glimpse into the perceptions of young Democrat women, and suggests that third-wave feminism still has a significant grip on the younger generation.

26% of young Republican men blame their problems on women.

66% of young Democratic women blame their problems on men.

🔗 https://t.co/MpYz11xIb1 https://t.co/ceex5DwjZa pic.twitter.com/0BhA40XzrG

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 28, 2026

The survey reveals that 66 percent of Democrat women from the ages of 18 to 29 believe that the challenges women face in American society are "due in great part to the behavior or actions of men."

By comparison, only 18 percent of Republican women in the same age range blame men for those problems.

Survey Center pollsters also found that 54 percent of Democrat women between the ages of 30 and 49 believe that the challenges women face in American society are "due to the behavior or actions of men" as well, while just 23 percent of Republican women in that age range agree.

Those disparities generally shrank as women grew older, with fewer Democrats blaming men and more Republicans blaming them.

The survey reported:

Do men see things the same way? When men were asked whether women were to blame for the troubles men faced, only 16 percent agreed. Republican young men are more likely than Democratic young men to blame women for the challenges that men face, but only 26 percent do.

Political scientists and analysts report that these statistics reflect an escalating partisan polarization among Gen Z and millennial demographics.

The gender-political alignment has grown more rigid, with 2026 data indicating that 66 percent of all young women identify as or lean Democratic, while young men have progressively shifted toward the Republican Party.

Researchers tracking these trends have expressed concern that the ideological divide could increasingly impact modern relationships and family formation.

Breitbart reports that the survey coincides with an August Economist/YouGov survey examining cultural norms, which found that American women in general are split on whether they would rather pursue a career or care for their family at home, if given the choice.

In that survey, most Democrat women, 52 percent, said they would choose a career outside the home over staying home to care for their family.

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FBI Accuses Washington Man Of Coaching Canada's Tumbler Ridge School Shooter, Agreeing To Livestream The Attack

Federal prosecutors have charged a Bellingham man with helping another person commit murder in a foreign country - alleging he coached an 18-year-old who killed eight people in Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia, in February and agreed to livestream the attack.

At the federal courthouse in Seattle, law enforcement officials on Oct. 6, 2026, announce the arrest of a Bellingham resident accused of aiding in a deadly school shooting in British Columbia. Officials include assistant commissioner Elija Rain of the BC RCMP, left, FBI special agent in charge Mike Herrington, and acting U.S. attorney Neil Floyd. (KUOW Photo/Amy Radil). KUOW's caption spells the RCMP officer's name Elijah. 

James Cody Bryant, 30, was arrested Tuesday, officials said at the federal courthouse in Seattle. The charge carries a possible life sentence, KUOW reported. Bryant is accused, not convicted. A preliminary hearing is set for Oct. 20.

NEWS RELEASE from @FBISeattle: Bellingham resident charged with conspiring to commit murder in connection with school shooting in Tumbler Ridge, B.C.

Read more on how this #FBI is pursuing justice for victims of violence. justice.gov/usao-wdwa/pr/…

— FBI (@FBI) October 7, 2026

On February 10, Jesse Van Rootselaar, 18, killed his mother and 11-year-old stepbrother at home, then five students and a school staff member at Tumbler Ridge Secondary School, before dying by suicide. Canadian officials said police had been to the home several times over mental health concerns. RCMP assistant commissioner Elija Rain said Canadian authorities contacted the U.S. Department of Homeland Security soon after, based on information from a platform the attacker had used.

Bryant and Van Rootselaar communicated on Discord, officials said, and Discord contacted law enforcement after the shooting. FBI Seattle special agent in charge Mike Herrington said the two discussed the attack in detail. Bryant allegedly sent money through PayPal so Van Rootselaar could buy shoes to wear that day and a lighter to ignite an explosive device.

"In addition to providing money, technical advice, and particular items to be used in the shooting, Bryant agreed to record a livestream feed of the attack and broadcast it in a way that would maximize notoriety for the shooter," Herrington said. Other messages suggest Bryant advised Van Rootselaar when the car would not start on the way to the school, after the killings at home, he added. Acting U.S. Attorney Neil Floyd said the planned broadcast was on Twitch. Officials said the feed shut down after about 20 seconds.

Charging documents show an exchange in which Van Rootselaar said, "I really hope you wouldn't ever snitch." Bryant replied, "I don't want to honestly. I know I can like, save lives I guess but idk." The government's press release also said there were conversations in which Bryant "tried to talk Van Rootselaar out of doing the attack." Officials said Bryant never contacted law enforcement, and agreed to handle the livestream just minutes before the attack.

United States v. James Cody Bryant complaint document is now public. Contains more information re the Tumbler Ridge mass shooting than 🇨🇦 has released from the start.

— Eric Schild (@EricSchild2) October 7, 2026

Officials said the two met about three years ago on Omegle, a now-defunct video chat service that randomly matched strangers, and that there is no indication they ever met in person or had ties to any other group. Both were born male and identified as female, officials said. The criminal complaint uses female pronouns for Van Rootselaar and no gendered pronouns for Bryant.

Herrington said distance does not shield a defendant. "If you think you are safe from prosecution because you did not pull the trigger or were not physically present at the scene of the crime, think again," he said. The Canadian investigation remains active, but Floyd said the case is being brought in the United States for now. "All the activity involved in this was committed here in the state of Washington," Floyd said.

Separately, victims' families and British Columbia, which sued in September, have taken OpenAI to court over Van Rootselaar's use of ChatGPT. The province's suit says the company flagged the chats but did not report them to police. Mother Jones reports ChatGPT helped the attacker get around its safeguards by framing questions as fictional or hypothetical.

DOJ release: Bellingham resident charged with conspiring to commit murder in connection with school shooting.

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FBI Accuses Washington Man Of Coaching Canada's Tumbler Ridge School Shooter, Agreeing To Livestream The Attack