Record Oil, Empty Tanks: The UAE's Miracle Recovery

Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com

Good news, everyone. The war is over, at least in the United Arab Emirates. That is the only conclusion you could draw from this month’s headlines. On October 14, Bloomberg reported the International Energy Agency’s estimate that UAE oil supply hit a record 5.3 million barrels a day in September. Fujairah, the port the Emirates built so they would never have to worry about the Strait of Hormuz, loaded a record 2.62 million barrels a day. The giant Ruwais refinery was declared back at full capacity at the end of August. Pop the (non-alcoholic) champagne.

Then Karl Miller sent me his October 22 assessment of the UAE’s oil and gas system, and spoiled the party. The Emirates have indeed recovered their crude exports. What they have not recovered is everything else. The gas business is still limping, the petrochemical plants are starving for feedstock, and the fuel reserves that are supposed to carry the country through the next attack have been drained to about a third of their prewar level. The UAE is setting production records with its gas light on.

The safe haven that wasn't

For years the UAE sold itself as the Switzerland of the Gulf: stable, diversified, insulated from the region’s chaos, a place where hedge funds and oil majors could sleep soundly. Then came 2026. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, UAE crude and condensate production fell from about 4.0 million barrels a day at the start of the year to an average of 2.4 million in March through May. A 40 percent collapse. Switzerland, it turns out, is within drone range of Iran.

The damage list reads like a sightseeing tour of Emirati industry. The Ruwais refining complex caught fire on March 10 and shut down. The Shah sour-gas plant, built to process 1.28 billion cubic feet a day, burned on March 16. The Habshan gas complex, the beating heart of the UAE’s gas system, was hit on April 3 and, in case anyone missed it, again on April 8. Borouge’s petrochemical plant was damaged on April 5. The Emirates Global Aluminium smelter went dark on March 28. And on May 17, a drone hit an electrical installation supporting the Barakah nuclear power plant, which is the sort of sentence nobody in Abu Dhabi ever wanted to read in a Security Council transcript.

Then there is Fujairah, the bypass port, the whole point of which was to keep UAE oil flowing no matter what happened at Hormuz. Reuters counts at least 19 attacks on it since the war began. In the week of March 16, loadings fell to 440,000 barrels a day. After a strike on May 4, refined-product exports essentially stopped for a month, with exactly one product tanker leaving between then and June 1. One. The insurance policy turned out to need insurance.

Available, just not working

Crude came back. Gas did not. ADNOC Gas’s second-quarter numbers compared with a year earlier: domestic gas production down 32.5 percent, export liquids such as LPG and naphtha down 54.5 percent, the company’s share of LNG down 63 percent. Export liquids sales fell from 252 to 117 trillion British thermal units. LNG sales fell about 71 percent. Revenue fell 39 percent, EBITDA 47 percent, net income 52 percent. That is $2.3 billion of revenue that evaporated in one quarter, at one company.

But my favorite statistic in Miller’s entire deck is this one. ADNOC Gas proudly reported that its assets were 99.9 percent available in the second quarter, better than the year before. Its actual asset utilization, meanwhile, fell from 80 percent to 54 percent. The plants were ready, willing and able. They just could not run, because the feedstock, the storage and the export routes they depend on had been knocked out. It is the corporate equivalent of announcing that your car is in perfect condition while it sits on blocks without wheels.

The recovery since then has been real but partial. Habshan’s gas supply was 85 percent restored as of August 10. Borouge had fixed its plant by the end of June, then discovered it had nothing to feed it, and ran at 60 percent utilization. The aluminium smelter had restarted a quarter of its pots by late August and now expects to finish the job sometime in early 2027. Repairs, as it happens, are faster than recoveries.

Running on fumes

Here is the number that should ruin a European energy minister’s weekend. On October 19, Fujairah held 7.25 million barrels of refined products. Before the war it held about 20.7 million. That is a 65 percent drop. Gasoline and naphtha stocks are down 87 percent. Fuel oil is down 53 percent. Diesel and jet fuel are down 23 percent, and fell 18 percent in a single week this month, just in time for winter.

Fujairah is not a corner gas station. It is one of the world’s great bunkering and product-trading hubs, the place where ships refuel and traders park cargoes between Asia and Europe. With a third of its normal stocks, it has about a third of its normal ability to absorb a shock. Miller’s arithmetic is unforgiving: lose a million barrels a day of export outlets with 10 million barrels of usable storage to fill, and you have roughly ten days before the oil fields have to shut in. Ten days. That is not a strategic reserve. That is a long weekend.

A bypass for a third of the traffic

The UAE’s answer to a closed Strait of Hormuz is the ADCOP pipeline from Habshan to Fujairah. It is designed to carry 1.5 million barrels a day, maybe 1.8 on a good day. ADNOC claims 4.85 million barrels a day of production capacity. So the escape hatch fits about a third of the passengers. A second pipeline is planned, for 2027, which will be a great comfort to anyone planning to hold this war in 2028.

And that record September? Some of it reflects genuine repairs. Some of it reflects the UAE’s exit from OPEC, which conveniently ended its production quotas in May. And some of it, by the IEA’s own account, came from drawing down inventories that were already at a record low. Selling your savings is a fine way to post record income for a month. It is not a business model. Meanwhile, across the region, refined-product shipments in September were 1.9 million barrels a day against 4.7 million before the war, and LPG shipments were 670,000 barrels a day against 1.5 million. The recovery is real for crude tankers. For everything else, it is a press release.

One more round, anyone?

To be fair, and Miller insists on being fair, nobody can prove that 30 to 40 percent of the UAE’s energy system is still destroyed. There is no complete public register of damage and repairs, and he gives full credit to the recoveries at Ruwais and in crude output. But the shape of the problem is plain. The UAE has rebuilt its ability to ship crude. Its gas business, its petrochemical feedstock and above all its fuel reserves remain badly depleted.

Which brings us to Washington’s latest bright idea: another round of strikes on Iran. Iran has already demonstrated, at least 19 times at Fujairah alone, that it can reach the UAE’s export system. The last time the Emirates absorbed a blow, they had 20 million barrels of products in Fujairah to soften it. Next time they will have about seven. Record output and empty tanks is not resilience. It is a country standing on the edge of a cliff and posting about the view.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/24/2026 - 17:30
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Record Oil, Empty Tanks: The UAE's Miracle Recovery

JetBlue Creditors Call In Restructuring Advisers As Stock, Bonds Crater

A federal judge blocked JetBlue Airways' $3.8 billion takeover of Spirit Airlines during the Biden administration to protect consumers. That supposedly brilliant decision is now looking increasingly disastrous for both airlines and the passengers it was meant to protect.

First, Spirit Aviation shuttered all operations earlier this year, stunning travelers with the abrupt move after 34 years of offering some of the most deeply discounted fares. Now, JetBlue could be on a similar trajectory, as the carrier's shares and junk bonds have cratered over the last several months.

Bloomberg News reported late Friday that JetBlue's creditors are organizing with restructuring advisers as the budget airline grapples with cash burn and high jet fuel prices.

The report centers on a group of creditors, including holders of $2 billion in bonds due in 2031 and a $742 million first-lien loan, who are working with PJT Partners and Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld.

JetBlue's 9.875% 2031 bonds traded near 80 cents on the dollar at the start of October but, just three weeks into the month, had fallen to distressed levels around 44 cents by Friday's close.

The stock has followed a similar trajectory, falling from $4.50 to $2.62 over the same period.

JetBlue reported about $2 billion in cash and $6 billion in unencumbered assets in the second quarter, as well as $8.5 billion in total debt. S&P stated that the budget airline had sufficient liquidity and borrowing capacity but warned about mounting debt-service costs.

Creditors of junk-rated airlines were worried this past week as larger airlines slashed guidance and warned of margin erosion from soaring jet fuel costs.

Latest guidance updates from airlines:

Southwest Airlines

Southwest lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.60-$2.85, down from a prior range of $3.25-$4.25. For Q4, it now expects adjusted EPS of $0.55-$0.80, below the $0.81 analyst consensus. The cuts came despite better-than-expected Q3 results and continued strong demand.

American Airlines

American cut its full-year outlook to an adjusted loss of $1.00-$1.60 per share, a significant deterioration from prior guidance of a $0.65 loss to $0.65 in earnings. For Q4, it guided to an adjusted loss of $0.50-$1.10 per share vs. the $0.49 consensus loss. CEO Robert Isom said fuel prices are expected to remain "higher, longer."

United Airlines

United guided Q4 adjusted EPS to $0.50-$1.50, well below the $1.88 analyst consensus, after fuel expenses surged 61.6% to $4.84 billion in Q3. Shares fell ~2% in after-hours trading on October 20.

For context, the Biden administration's DoJ sued to block JetBlue's $3.8 billion takeover of Spirit in March 2023, claiming the deal would reduce competition and raise fares. Then, in early 2024, U.S. District Judge William Young sided with the Biden administration. Notably, Young was appointed by Ronald Reagan in 1985.

A reasonable argument can be made that government intervention backfired and is now hurting the very consumers it sought to protect, as Spirit's shutdown has reduced competition in the budget airline market. Now the odds are increasing that JetBlue could face a similar fate. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/24/2026 - 16:00
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JetBlue Creditors Call In Restructuring Advisers As Stock, Bonds Crater

Here's One October Surprise, Anyway...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

"The Left has always preferred the ashes of its own making to the inheritance of better men." - Celina101 on X

By now, everybody and his uncle interested in public matters has probably read that a claque of current-and-former agency officials, ex-USAID busybodies, military officers, activist academics, Democratic Party paladins, and freelance communist jihadis has been exposed plotting the overthrow of the US government. The plot was reported by the diligent "X" blogger Jennica Pounds under her nom-de-plume "Data Republican," who lately received an enormous document-and-recording dump courtesy of careless color revolutionaries who recorded themselves and saved doc files against orders, the dumb bunnies.

Erica Chenoweth of Harvard (They / Them?) Master Color Revolutionary

Ms. Pounds, an experienced software engineer turned political detective, came to public attention early in 2025 when she assisted Elon Musk's DOGE operation in building a database of NGO money trails emanating from the colossal USAID grant matrix - after which her identity was "doxed" by Rolling Stone and she underwent a harassment campaign.

Of course, USAID was abolished early in the Trump 2.0 admin, and a lot of the "activists" defenestrated from it moved into scores of NGOs, with their salaries switched from taxpayer funding to the bank accounts of George Soros-connected orgs and sundry other shady characters like Shanghai-based Neville Roy Singham. These are the NGOs forever puling about "our democracy," meaning their drive to punish, persecute, and push around Americans who demur from a communist future. Data Republican says her reporting so far is "only the beginning" of much more detailed and alarming disclosures.

Coincidentally this week, their cover was also blown by Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI and former CIA analyst), who told an audience at the U. of Chicago that the Democrats intend to go after and wreck any young person who might think about working in the current administration. Ms. Slotkin, you might recall, was in that video put out a year ago - with five other US lawmakers - telling military officers they should-and-must refuse "illegal" orders. Sedition-lite, it looked like at the time.

Before we get into the meat of their playbook for us, and what might happen in response, let's just dox a few of the characters involved. You should know who they are (and maybe the DOJ should, too). They are not necessarily the usual suspects you've read about before like the omnipresent lawfare ninjas, Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, Mary McCord, et al., so busy filing frivolous lawsuits in the federal courts.

For instance (as reported by one Eric Schwalm on "X"), there's Erica Chenoweth, the transvestite professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of government who acts as chief strategist and hub for the "color revolution" planned by the United Democracy Alliance cabal she is associated with. Ms. (or Mr.?) Chenoweth's big contribution to Jacobin thought is "the 3.5 rule" which says that if you can get that percentage of people out on the streets making a ruckus, you can successfully overthrow a government.

Then there's Danielle Reiff, former USAID, now co-founder of the Democracy Renewal Group, Renew American Democracy, and Renew to Thrive orgs. . . very verbal on video laying out the exact procedures for the US color revolution. And there's Rear Admiral Michael E. Smith (Ret.) who runs a network of over a thousand retired military officers called National Security Leaders for America. He's in charge of "role-playing" exercises in preparation for post-election hijinks. Then there's Julia Roig, founder of the Horizons Project who is responsible for "building relational infrastructure so that disparate groups can act in concert without a single hierarchical command." Then there's Maria Stephan, co-author, with Erica Chenoweth, of the sedition tract Why Civil Resistance Works. Then there's Brenden Halloran, former USAID, now with the Renew to Thrive org, responsible for "accountability ecosystems, overcoming fragmentation among groups, and long-term sequencing of reforms." Then there's Walt Roberts, also on the Renew to Thrive team, plus the Mediators Foundation and the Inter-Movement Impact Project. Then there's Laura Adams, also former USAID, now in Renew to Thrive and PACT, whose mission is to turn strategy papers into operational plans. Then there's Zoe Marks, also in Harvard's Kennedy School, a "scenario-planner" for Horizons and United Democracy Alliance. Then there's "cohesion" strategist Paul Zeitz, co-founder of UnifyUSA, partner with Danielle Reiff on Renew to Thrive, and active in NGOs Renew to Thrive and National Security Leaders for America. There's the bunch. Now you know.

Top row: Reiff, Smith, Roig; Center row: Roberts, Halloran, Adams; Bottom Row: Stephan, Slotkin, Chenoweth

As to the coup playbook, here goes: The idea is to turn out massive street actions (protests and riots) in the blue cities, based on rumors that President Trump has somehow "interfered" in the election, and create enough chaos so that Mr. Trump would be tempted to invoke the Insurrection Act or some-such national emergency measure. The coupsters mentioned above, and their cohorts and underlings, have been quietly confabbing with blue state attorneys general and governors. These officials would unite to declare that Mr. Trump's actions make him illegitimate, and would set in-motion procedures for said governors to declare the president a tyrant and an outlaw and themselves as the "new governing authority." They would move from that to a new constitutional convention and bring about all the heralded revolutionary changes chattered about for months such as abolishing the electoral college and Senate, changing-up the Supreme Court, etc. Voila! Trump and his government are out! The Democratic Party (and their new DSA commissars) would take over and the punishments would begin. . . .

But. . . what if President Trump doesn't play along? What if he insists that the blue state governors must ask (or beg) for federal troops to be sent in to control the street violence in their cities before he commits to anything? Then the onus would be theirs, wouldn't it? They will have asked for help? Mr. Trump will have obliged. How does that make him a tyrant? (It doesn't, of course.) Or. . . the blue state governors might not ask for federal help and Mr. Trump could just watch their cities burn down. That would kind of be on the blue governors, too, wouldn't it - hey, they didn't ask for federal troops and their own feckless police couldn't get the job done because: previous "de-funding" and all that nonsense.

Then, how about Mr. Trump moves to arrest said blue state governors for sedition and treason (especially if they entertained any collusion with foreign operators, such as CCP-connected Neville Roy Singham's NGO network or any of Soros's overseas outfits)? And how about arresting and likewise charging many of those aforementioned NGO strategists, along with the governors? (And while you're at it, throw in the lawfare ninjas who have assisted in all this mischief.) And how about after accomplishing that, the president then and only then declares the Insurrection Act, sends in federal troops to quell the street chaos, and moves to indict and try said seditionists and traitors in the military tribunal apparatus? There it is! Just some suggestions. . . .

* * *

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/23/2026 - 16:20
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Here's One October Surprise, Anyway...

Republicans Face Losing Senate Seat They've Held for 107 Years, And It All Comes Down To One Thing

Republicans are confronting an increasingly concerning political situation in Kansas, where a Senate seat the party has held for more than a century has become unexpectedly competitive.

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton debated in Kansas City, discussing the Iran war, fuel prices, and campaign attack ads as Election Day approaches. SOURCE: Associated Press

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in a reelection contest that recent polling suggests is within single digits, despite the Sunflower State not having elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932.

During an appearance on Fox Business Network's Big Money, Marshall was pressed about why the race remains so close.

"Well, no, I think it's the price of gasoline," Marshall declared. "It's that simple, and I'm not sure it's as close as what the national polls are showing. Six years ago, I was an open seat. The poll showed the same thing, and we won by 11 points. Now, I don't think we're going to win by 11 points right now."

Marshall also blamed negative media coverage of President Donald Trump for shaping perceptions of the economy.

"The national media, the legacy media has just beat the heck out of President Trump now for, what, 10 years, and despite what's really a pretty strong economy here in Kansas, the legacy media is just telling you the sky is falling," the senator said.

The national polling shows why the senator's worried.

An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey found that 71% of Americans consider gasoline unaffordable, compared with 28% in February. Additionally, a Pew Research Center survey found that 74% of Americans are very concerned about gasoline and energy prices, up from 43% in January.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/22/2026 - 15:45
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Republicans Face Losing Senate Seat They've Held for 107 Years, And It All Comes Down To One Thing

"Polished But Rough": First Major Review Casts Doubt On Foldable iPhone Duo's Mass Adoption

Tech YouTuber Marques Brownlee, who has more than 21 million subscribers, offered a mixed first take on Apple's foldable iPhone Duo ahead of its Friday release, describing the device as "very polished around the edges, but kind of rough in the middle."

Brownlee's review of Apple's first foldable iPhone may present a hurdle to adoption. At more than $2,000, the Duo's first-generation shortcomings could make buyers reluctant to pay the hefty premium, prompting some to wait for a second generation.

"It's $2,000 to get an iPad mini that can fit in your pocket. 120 Hz iPad Mini OLED fits in your pocket. Have you ever wanted that? They made it. They did it. Great. This is the first generation. It's made for you. But also, yeah, it is it is polished but rough," Brownlee noted.

The Duo is slightly thicker and heavier than the latest Samsung Galaxy Z Fold, a difference Brownlee said "makes a big difference in daily use."

After testing the Duo for a week, he said, "you would be happy if it were 20% lighter."

Brownlee pointed out that the battery capacity is about 4,900 mAh, split across the two halves. With typical mixed use (roughly 75% closed and 25% open), Brownlee called it a "very efficient phone" and "an all-day phone and then some," regularly finishing the day with more than 30% battery remaining.

The dual rear cameras (48 MP main and ultra-wide) are "right on par with the rest of the foldables" and "solid" most of the time, though the smaller main sensor gets noisier in weaker light and there is no optical zoom, he explained.

He continued, "The app situation on the iPhone Duo is its biggest downside right now."

"I think after the learning curve and getting used to not having Face ID, this is a really fun phone to use," he added.

Brownlee's verdict is mixed:

If you are the iPhone filmmaker who wants the absolute best cameras to go shoot their next thing, no. Uh if you're the type of person who breaks your phone every like nine months cuz you drop it all the time, yep, probably no. But if the $2,000 or the difference between 35 and 55 bucks a month doesn't mean much to you and you just kind of like the idea and want to jump in, I think after the learning curve and and getting used to not having Face ID, this is a really fun phone to use.

And it's really just cuz that polish, that polish around the edges goes a long way towards the fun factor. So, the awesome animations, the incredible hinge, the wonderful inside display, like all of that is just really nice and it hides a little bit of the rough core. Like, it will feel a little heavy sometimes and not all your favorite apps will be updated right out the box, but it is fun.

Apple can't completely engineer their way around the compromises of this form factor, like the slightly worse battery and the slightly worse speakers and the slightly worse cameras. Like, that's just physics. But what they have done is an admirable job with their first generation. Now, I'm just going to have to cross my fingers that second generation actually listens to some of that core feedback cuz that could be an amazing phone.

Watch The Duo Review Here Before Buying

Last Friday, when preorders for the Duo opened, we pointed out the incredible initial demand as delivery estimates slipped further and further beyond this Friday by the minute.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Duo's estimated delivery date is January 22.

The question remains whether the Duo, at a base price of $2,000, can achieve mass adoption, given that Tim Cook's $3,400 Vision Pro was a total disaster. Now it's John Ternus' turn to prove to investors that Apple still has demand for its premium products.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/21/2026 - 14:45
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"Polished But Rough": First Major Review Casts Doubt On Foldable iPhone Duo's Mass Adoption