Open Sesame

Submitted By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

This week’s market behavior had a mythical, almost magical tone to it.

In Arabian Nights, Ali Baba was able to open a cave of riches by uttering the phrase “Open Sesame.” Markets responded to any and every sort of connotation of “The Strait is Open” by rewarding participants with riches. We started this week bright and early, kicking off Bloomberg TV, and then moving on to Bloomberg Radio, and Tom Keene’s Best Ideas.

At the time we were all trying to understand what “Blockade” meant. How and what was the U.S. going to do in terms of a blockade? Markets were jittery, but somehow, from almost the get go, markets seemed to take the combination of U.S. and Iranian snippets to mean the Strait was Open.

I am not sure how accurate this data set on Bloomberg is (TRHBTKCD index) given all the conflicting stories of what has transited or not, what is running without transponders, etc. But traffic remains subdued.

We have argued that a ceasefire benefited the U.S. more than Iran and that there were some very strong possible outcomes from U.S. efforts in the region. I underestimated how quickly and how big those good outcomes would be reflected in the market.

While “any option” still seemed viable, markets had moved on to not only is a deal close, but it will also be the best possible deal. A deal where Iran not only stops pursuing a nuclear weapon, but they would also provide the U.S. with all of their enhanced uranium.

As the weekend progresses, it is unclear how realistic this type of deal is. There are once again competing narratives about the Strait.

Weirdly, unless you are trading futures, you can skip the “green dot” Sunday night, as time and again, the Sunday night price action has done little to predict how markets would behave once the U.S. opens.

Just How Magical Was “Open Sesame”?

Last weekend, we went with More Than Just Iran. Academy had delivered so much content on Iran, that we wanted to highlight some of the other issues (and opportunities) facing the market.

Software.

Software conclusion – Problem Solved.

IGV (software ETF) rose 14% on the week. ARKK which I use as a “proxy” for disruption, also rallied by 15%. INTC (one of the few individual tickers I’ve been vocal about in reports and the media) said “hold my beer” as it rallied 35% in less than 2 weeks! QTUM (quantum ETF) was up 25% and didn’t sell off as much in the first place – which makes some sense as investment into this area is only increasing.

Private Credit.

While the rebound hasn’t been as strong in private credit (and private credit-related companies) it started to rebound earlier. We liked it “for a trade” as it had seemed to be oversold and was trading “ok” even when bad news hit the tape.

We use BIZD to reflect BDCs more broadly. It has risen “only” 9% since April 1st and despite the rally is still below its post-Liberation Day lows.

GPZ (which has seen AUM pop from just over $100 million when we first mentioned it, to over $250 million, predominantly through inflows) is an ETF that I use to highlight the performance of “alternative asset managers” which includes companies with heavy exposure to private credit. It hit the low back on March 12th, and is up almost 20% since then.

OWL, which has arguably been at the epicenter of the Private Credit discussion, rose 20% in just a week as it put its low in just last Friday.

Private Credit. While not “solved,” this market has been stabilizing for some time. Yes it was propelled higher last week, along with almost everything else, but that seemed to be only “part of the story.”

Rare Earths, Critical Minerals, and Uranium.

This one “confuses” me a little bit more than some of the others. Presumably, the war was going to lead to some sort of slowdown and would decrease the need for rare earths (REMX) and Uranium-related companies (URA). Maybe, but war, and more importantly, the replenishment of arsenals, probably isn’t that bad for rare earths and critical minerals.

On uranium, I guess the case could have been made about slowing global demand, but I’m really not sure why an oil shortage was bad for nuclear. One seemingly logical conclusion is that oil, once again highlighting geopolitical risk associated with it, would spur investment into nuclear. It didn’t seem to do that. I’m not sure why Iran handing over enriched uranium and possibly creating a lower risk environment in the Middle East is so good for uranium? I’m long, but can’t really say I understood the price action for the past few weeks.

Rare Earths, Critical Minerals, and Uranium. I guess the “problem” was “solved” but not sure why there was a problem in the first place?

Treasuries

The Treasury market started performing better a few weeks ago and that has continued. We argued that while the initial response to the war would be higher yields, that had become overdone. Now the 10-year has hit our “target” of 4.25%. Our target is for 4.25% on 10s to be the midpoint of the range. If anything, that range might need to be moved lower.

The market is pricing in slightly better than a 50/50 chance of 1 cut this year. While the affordability issue (the way most non-economists now see inflation) will make it difficult to cut, I think the market will have to start pricing in at least one cut ahead of the midterms.

Treasuries. A problem, which was overdone, no longer seems to be a problem, which makes sense.

Bottom Line

Dog-years represent roughly what a dog’s age would be if it was human. 

Market participants need to define Trump-years. There has been no slowing of news flow. I see no reason why that would change. In fact, if Iran starts taking up less of the administration’s time, look for the pace of headlines impacting other sectors, relationships, countries, trade, production, jobs, etc. to increase. It seems that I should be able to weave in One Thousand and One Nights into this section, as it fits the Ali Baba and the 40 Thieves theme, but I couldn’t figure out a clever way to do it. It has been a long week! A long month! And even a long year! (Is that the Friend’s theme song?)

Look for lower yields (that seems slightly contrarian here, I think).

I continue to be “pound the table” loud in favor of being heavily overweight the ProSec themes.

I was nowhere near as optimistic on the broad stock market rally as I should have been. Even today, with the benefit of hindsight, it still seems a bit “magical” (or “mechanical”) how well markets behaved in light of the actual headlines. Not the perception of headlines, but the actual headlines. The “Open Sesame” magic that “solved all problems” makes some sense, but positioning may have played a much larger role than we’d like to admit. The faux liquidity of the current trading environment seems to amplify moves.

Let’s hope markets are right and we are near the end. (The exact phrase we used in last weekend’s report).

Things almost seem “too good to be true” but as of now the ceasefire remains intact and other headwinds are being addressed/resolved/ignored which supports the market.

My biggest fears for the economy and risk markets remain affordability, jobs, and the “working poor.” That fear is why I continue to think yields drift lower.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/19/2026 - 17:30
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Open Sesame

Catching Print? New Feminist Trend Proves They Have Smooth Brains

For decades insecure women have used feminism as a vehicle to crusade against "body shaming" and male objectification - Which is essentially a war on men who dare to have beauty preferences. 

Nearly every feminist movement has roots in female physical insecurity, from the "fat positivity" movement, to the "slut walk" protests, to diversity requirements that are eliminating attractive women from popular media, to the "inversion" movement in which average women deliberately make themselves uglier "in rebellion" against the men who were never interested in them in the first place. 

It's no secret that female insecurity rules almost everything women do politically.  One could say that feminism is essentially the weaponization of female insecurity as a means to gain power over society.

The latest trend to spew from the bowels of feminist activism is called "Catching Print" - Activists claim men are objectifying and shaming women, so women should objectify and shame men...by staring at and rating men's junk.  The problem is, these people don't seem to understand that the vast majority of men simply don't care.

    

The trend is, of course, going viral on cesspool sites like TikTok, and it is being popularized by leftist media sites like Cosmopolitan.  But, it does offer a perfect opportunity to peer into the mentality of the lowest common denominator and understand why marginalizing them is necessary.   

The idea that men are worried about what grotesque feminists think of them is a desperate fantasy.  However, these dumpy ladies have that problem covered; they simply pretend as if men are up in arms about the trend and scrambling to hide the bulge in their pants from prying eyes.  As always, feminists build a strawman on social media and then tear him down.  It's sad, but this makes them feel powerful.  

Men sit with their legs spread for a reason - They're never worried about who is looking.  If anything it would appear that activist women are jealous of modern men's ability to remain indifferent to women's judgements.  And, to be clear, the idea of women trying to shame men into conformity is not new. 

Narcissistic females have been using shaming as a manipulation tactic since the dawn of time.  Almost every man in the world has been accused of having a "small unit" by a woman who was trying to distract from the fact that she is wrong.  Women invented body shaming, mostly to undermine other women out of jealousy.  Men's brains do not operate in the same manner. 

What feminists call "body shaming" is often nothing more than men have standards and preferences in who they date.  In the liberal west, women are applauded and rewarded for having extreme and often absurd preferences (6 feet, 6 figure income, 6 pack abs).  Men are demonized merely for not dating fat chicks.

As for the idea of creepy men staring at women, all men know that this is subject to circumstance.  If she finds the man attractive, it's not creepy for him to leer.  If she doesn't find the man attractive, well, she should probably get over it or avoid going out in public.  We have seen endless examples of what feminists consider "creepy", which includes men doing nothing more than glancing in their general direction. 

It's time for the ladies to understand and accept the fact that they don't get to dictate who looks at them in public.  By extension, men really don't care if women stare at them or the bulge in their pants.      

A key element of the feminist agenda requires women to pretend as if they are constant victims, crying about oppression that simply doesn't exist.  They then mobilize their smooth-brained movements to attack men for this fake oppression and "flip it".  In other words, feminists falsely claim bad behavior by men as an excuse to justify their own bad behavior.  It's a classic Marxist maneuver. 

However, this old tactic is not working anymore.  The methodologies of feminists have been exposed in recent years and men are wise to the game.  Female shaming techniques hold no power and men are shrugging off the attacks.  Today, men are more likely to whip out their "print" and slap a feminist in the face with it than actually care about her opinion.    

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/19/2026 - 15:45
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Catching Print? New Feminist Trend Proves They Have Smooth Brains

Trump Says First Releases Of UFO Documents Will Begin 'Very, Very Soon'

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump announced April 17 that he expects his administration to begin releasing documents “very soon” related to extraterrestrial life and unexplained phenomena.

President Donald Trump walks toward reporters before answering questions prior to boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Md., on April 10, 2026. Win McNamee/Getty Images

“As you remember, I recently directed the Secretary of War … to begin releasing government files relating to UFOs and unexplained aerial phenomena,” Trump told an audience in Phoenix, Arizona. “I’m pleased to report today … that this process is well underway and we’ve found many very interesting documents, I must say. And, the first releases will begin very, very soon.”

Trump made the remarks at an event with Turning Point Action, an affiliate of Turning Point USA.

The president ordered government agencies to release information about UFOs and related phenomena in a Feb. 19 Truth Social post. Tremendous interest in the files prompted Trump to issue the directive to release files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, he said.

The U.S. government holds thousands of documents related to historical reports about the subjects of unidentified flying objects and alien phenomenon, including more than 12,600 reports from Project Blue Book, which took place from 1947 to 1969. The public can already access some of the public records, photos, and sounds at the National Archives.

The buzz over revealing more evidence comes days after Artemis II made its historic voyage around the moon, stirring the public’s interest in space discovery.

Trump’s announcement, however, fell flat with UFO investigator Donald Schmitt, who said he had “very little hope” the documents would prove anything more than what has already been released to the public.

“They’re just documents,” Schmitt told The Epoch Times. “They don’t prove anything. We need to stop dancing around the idea that we want to see the files or documents. … I want to hold a piece of the hardware. I want to see a tissue sample. Take me to where you’re preserving the bodies after all these years.”

“That’s what this should come down to,” Schmitt said. “Otherwise this is just song and dance.”

Schmitt, a seven-time best-selling author whose first book was made into the made-for-TV movie “Roswell,” serves as lead investigator for the International UFO Museum in Roswell, New Mexico. He has spent decades researching the alleged crash of a UFO about 75 miles north of the rural southeastern town in 1947.

At the peak of the independent investigations into the Roswell incident, Schmitt said they had 150 eyewitnesses for government officials to interview, but no one was interested in talking with them, he said.

“We have 30 deathbed confessions. They’re not interested,” Schmitt said about the government investigators.

The International UFO Museum in Roswell, New Mexico, tells the story about the 1947 UFO crash that eyewitnesses say happened 75 miles away from the southeastern city. Jill McLaughlin/The Epoch Times

He said he hoped he was wrong about the upcoming release of information, but it seemed to be generating a lot of confusion.

“I’m always cautious of people who speak as though they have any answers or they refer to themselves as experts, especially on this topic,” he added. “I can’t emphasize enough, there is no such thing as an expert on UFOs.

“The mystery continues.”

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told reporters Feb. 23 he was already working on getting the documents in order.

Gen. John "Jay" Raymond (L), Commander of U.S. Space Command, and Chief Master Sgt. Roger Towberman (C) hold the Space Force Flag as President Donald Trump gestures to it during the presentation in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on May 15, 2020. AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File

“We’ve got our people working on it right now,” Hegseth said. “We’re digging in. We’re going to be in full compliance to be able to provide that for the president.”

Hegseth didn’t have a time frame for when he would be able to provide the documents. He didn’t say whether he believed aliens existed, but Vice President JD Vance weighed in on his thoughts about the unknown beings in an interview with conservative political commentator Benny Johnson on March 27.

“When I came in, I was obsessed with the UFO files,” Vance said. “I have not been able to spend enough time on this to fully understand it. I’m going to get to the bottom of it.”

Vance elaborated on his beliefs about extraterrestrial beings.

“I don’t think they’re aliens,” Vance said. “I think they’re demons anyway, but that’s a long discussion.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 17:30
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Trump Says First Releases Of UFO Documents Will Begin 'Very, Very Soon'

White House Working With FBI To Probe Cases Of Missing Scientists

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration confirmed on April 17 that it was working with the FBI to investigate the mysterious deaths and disappearances of ten U.S. scientists and government employees who had access to nuclear or aerospace material.

“In light of the recent and legitimate questions about these troubling cases, and President [Donald] Trump’s commitment to the truth, the White House is actively working with all relevant agencies and the FBI to holistically review all of the cases together and identify any potential commonalities that may exist,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote in a post on X Friday afternoon.

The scientists and employees who worked on highly classified projects started vanishing or dying in recent years.

“No stone will be unturned in this effort, and the White House will provide updates when we have them,” Leavitt said.

The confirmation from Leavitt happened one day after Trump said the White House would look into whether the cases are connected.

“I hope it’s random, but we’re going to know in the next week and a half,” Trump told reporters on April 16, adding “I just left a meeting on that subject.”

One of the missing people included retired Air Force Maj. Gen. William “Neil” McCasland, who vanished on Feb. 27, according to the Bernalillo County Sheriff’s Office in New Mexico.

The 68-year-old previously served as the head of research at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, which conspiracy theories allege was tied to Roswell’s UFO incident in 1947.

He also worked at the Pentagon as the director, space acquisition in the Office of the Secretary of the Air Force and then as director of special programs, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics.

McCasland’s wife reported that she saw him interacting with a repairman around 10:00 a.m., she went to a medical appointment at 11:10, and he was gone when she returned just after noon.

The Albuquerque-area resident did not take his phone, prescription glasses, and wearable devices, but investigators did discover that the household was missing his hiking boots, wallet, and a .38 caliber revolver with a leather holster.

Another missing person included Monica Reza Jacinto, a rocket scientist who had worked with McCasland.

Jacinto was last seen hiking on June 22, 2025, in the Angeles National Forest.

Another one of the cases that is being questioned was the shooting of California Institute of Technology astrophysicist Carl Grillmair.

The astrophysicist, who worked on missions related to the Hubble and Spitzer space telescopes, was shot and killed outside of his home on Feb. 16, 2026.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/18/2026 - 16:20
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White House Working With FBI To Probe Cases Of Missing Scientists

Former Congressman Blows The Whistle On Blackmail And Honeypots In Congress

In a candid interview with Human Events editor Jack Posobiec, former Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) alleged that blackmail and sexual honeypot operations are far more prevalent than the American public is aware of.

Cawthorn, who was elected to represent North Carolina's 11th congressional district at just 25 years old in 2020, described the typical path these lurrid situations take. It often begins at donor dinners or late-night votes, when members unwind with drinks or head back toward Capitol Hill. While many lawmakers prefer socializing with fellow congressmen to avoid complications with staffers or outside interests, invitations can quickly turn strangely personal.

"Normally, the way I found that these things start getting off the ground is that it starts out—you’re maybe at a donor dinner or getting dinner after a late night of votes,” Cawthorn said. "Then, you know, everyone has friends inside of Congress, so you start hanging out with friends. Maybe you’re grabbing drinks, or on the way back to Capitol Hill, heading back to your homes."

"Then you start building these relationships, and most congressmen like to hang out with other congressmen, just because there are so many problems when you hang out with staffers or people with different angles in other parts of the Beltway, the former lawmaker continued. "I will tell you, normally, the way I came across this is that people start inviting me and saying, “Hey, why don’t you come back? My wife would love to hang out with you, and we can see what could be going on here. I think we’d have a really good time if we all got together in this way.”

"Then you start piecing it together and say, “Wait a minute, what kind of invitation is this? This sounds really weird. What do you mean leave my phone at the house?” That doesn’t make any sense—these random things they’re saying. It becomes very clear what they’re looking for. That’s the big one—“check your phone at the door,” that kind of thing,” he added.

WATCH: Madison Cawthorn explains how honeytrapping operations work in US Congress

"Once they have you on video they own you"pic.twitter.com/OVGCx4a7s9

— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) April 15, 2026

Cawthorn told Posobiec that he made it clear he had zero interest in such activities.

"I’ve got a phenomenal life. I was only 25 years old when I was in Congress, so that didn’t interest me whatsoever. I thought the majority of people in the United States were very cognizant of that. So I came out and talked about it, and they tried to destroy me for it,” Cawthorn said.

Cawthorn lost his bid for reelection in the 2022 North Carolina Republican primary, falling to state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R), who later went on to win the general election.

"I’ll tell you, there were 16 people that I really hold responsible - the architects of trying to take down my political career,” Cawthorn explained. "I want you to ask yourselves: out of all the people who came out against me or sent funds to make sure I was pushed out of Congress, where are those people now?”

"I’m very happy that I was able to take the majority of them down, or that the majority of them are now out of office or have terrible personal lives at this point. But I will tell you, there are so many people inside Washington, D.C., that have much worse on them than what’s going on inside of this video,” he concluded.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 16:40
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Former Congressman Blows The Whistle On Blackmail And Honeypots In Congress