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Should Democrats Fear A Supreme Court October Surprise That Could Save The Senate For The GOP?

There has been a lot of speculation about potential Supreme Court vacancies this year, mostly centered on Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas. Even President Donald Trump seems anxious about the possibility. In a recent interview with Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo, Trump revealed that he has a shortlist of potential Supreme Court nominees ready in the event of a vacancy and signaled he’s prepared to fill multiple seats if the opportunity arises. 

"In theory, it's two - you just read the statistics - it could be two, could be three, could be one," Trump said. "I don't know. I'm prepared to do it. But when you mention Alito, he is a great justice."

However, for now, the door appears closed. Sources close to both Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas told CBS News that neither man plans to retire in 2026, effectively throwing cold water on the speculation that has been building for months within Republican circles.

But Senate Republicans aren't exactly ready to write it off yet. They're treating the possibility of a fall vacancy as hot enough to plan around, even while keeping their mouths carefully shut in public.

The calculus is straightforward. Republicans currently hold a 53-seat Senate majority, but party strategists privately acknowledge that margin is vulnerable. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently shifted four Senate races — Ohio, North Carolina, Nebraska, and Georgia — toward Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump's job approval has slipped into the low 30s. Democrats have a credible path to flipping the upper chamber if they can make inroads in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, or Iowa.

What Senate Republicans are hoping for is a potential October surprise. 

GOP strategist and former Senate aide Brian Darling argues that a vacancy and confirmation battle hitting in October would "have the whole agenda change," pulling Senate races away from economic grievances and back toward the Court. It would "shift" the focus of contested races and "may motivate MAGA voters to get reengaged and show up to vote." As Darling put it, "An October surprise is when some issue comes up that people aren't expecting that completely changes the debate," adding that such a development "clearly is something that would be welcomed by the Trump administration going into the midterms."

It sounds like a risky strategy that could backfire, as such events could easily motivate both sides. However, Republicans have a recent data point to anchor that theory.

In 2018, Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation fight landed so close to Election Day that it likely helped Republicans flip a few Senate seats despite losing 42 House seats and majority control of the lower chamber. The Senate outcome diverged sharply from the national wave, and vulnerable Democrats in red-leaning states paid the price. Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana both held polling leads heading into the Kavanaugh vote. Both lost. McCaskill later acknowledged on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" that, before the confirmation battle, there had been “a double-digit difference in enthusiasm” favoring Democrats, but that Supreme Court fight changed the dynamics completely.

The 2016 Scalia precedent is also part of the institutional memory here. After Scalia died in February of that year, then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell held the seat open through the presidential election, effectively turning the race into a referendum on the Court's direction. Justice Neil Gorsuch was confirmed in April 2017. Republicans believe that the gambit helped deliver the White House.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) believes a Supreme Court vacancy “would be a galvanizing issue for Republicans,” but was careful to note that justices make their own decisions. "I don't give Supreme Court justices advice," Cornyn said, praising Alito's record by saying simply, "Alito's been great."

There certainly is reason for Republicans to be careful. Barack Obama infamously failed to convince Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg to retire while he was president. She stubbornly stayed on the court, despite her advanced age and poor health, and passed in 2020, giving a third Court pick.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) was equally careful about nudging Alito, 76, or Thomas, 77, about retiring. He said he has "seen the articles" speculating about Alito’s retirement and acknowledged that "the rumor started somewhere." On whether either justice might step down, Kennedy said it "depends on their health," then added, "I don't know where this rumor came from; it may well be true."

Senate Majority Leader John Thune pointed to Republicans' demonstrated ability to confirm quickly, referencing both 2018 and the confirmation of Justice Amy Coney Barrett in 2020 — completed less than two months after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death, just before a presidential election.

"It seems like it could happen,” one senior Republican aide said. “We'll get somebody confirmed. The fight will be interesting."

The question isn't whether Republicans want a Supreme Court vacancy before November — it's whether they'll get one. And if they do, history suggests the political fallout could be severe for Democrats defending seats in territory that was never really theirs to begin with.

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'Spies Inside The Holy See': Report Reveals US Espionage Campaign Targeting Pope Leo

Via The Cradle

The administration of US President Donald Trump has been "spying" on Pope Leo XIV as part of a years-long intelligence campaign by Washington against the Vatican, US investigative journalist Ken Klippenstein said in a report released Friday. 

Klippenstein – an independent, Washington-based investigative journalist who formerly wrote for The Intercept – cited sources as saying that Trump's recent comments on the new Pope were taken by the intelligence community as "a directive to prioritize spying on the Vatican."

via Reuters

Trump had said earlier this month that Pope Leo was "terrible on foreign policy" and "weak on crime." According to Klippenstein’s sources, Washington has "for years" been spying on the Vatican. 

"The CIA has human spies working inside the Holy See bureaucracy. The NSA and CIA seek to intercept telecommunications, emails, and texts. The FBI investigates crimes committed against and by the Vatican. The State Department closely follows the ins and outs of Papal diplomacy and politics. All of these agencies liaise with the Vatican’s own foreign policy, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies," the report stated. 

Klippenstein pointed to a "longstanding – and quietly extensive – relationship between the US national security apparatus and the Vatican" involving diplomatic, law enforcement, and cybersecurity cooperation.

Much of it is "genuine" but also serves as a "convenient cover for collecting intelligence."

"The first Trump administration sought to beef up its coordination with Italian intelligence agencies and Vatican officials on things like cybersecurity, white collar crime, human trafficking, art theft, and other issues. One particular project was to help the Vatican actively thwart cyber intrusions into its networks. The FBI also regularly provides threat intelligence to the Pope during his travels," Klippenstein cited FBI documents as saying. 

"The State Department, meanwhile, maintains a daily Vatican-centric news digest circulated to diplomats worldwide… The department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research has analysts dedicated to producing classified assessments on Vatican affairs," he added, referring to other documents he obtained.

"Even the US military has a Vatican-specific language code on its books as a distinct linguistic capability. ‘QLE’ designates Ecclesiastical Latin – the Vatican’s preferred liturgical register – as distinct from classical Latin."

The report follows recent tensions between Trump and the Holy See. Trump said earlier this month:

"Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear weapon. I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the US … And I don’t want a Pope who criticizes the President of the US."

Prior to that, the pope had condemned what he called the “delusion of omnipotence,” fueling the US-Israeli war against Iran. 

“Enough of the idolatry of self and money! Enough of the display of power! Enough of war!” he said. The pope also recently said that a “handful of tyrants” were ruling the world, before later clarifying that his comments were not meant as a jab at Trump and were written before the US president criticized him. 

Additionally, the papacy referred to Trump’s threat to wipe out the Iranian civilization as unacceptable.

Pope Leo’s remarks came weeks after dozens of US lawmakers demanded a probe due to hundreds of complaints from service members saying that military commanders portrayed the war on Iran as “divinely ordained” and linked to biblical prophecy, including claims that Trump had been “anointed by Jesus.”

Well over 2,000 people have been killed by the US-Israeli war on Iran, and the country’s infrastructure has been ravaged. 

Only about one-third of the infrastructure destroyed in Iran’s capital during the US-Israeli war was military-linked, Bloomberg revealed on 21 April in an analysis of the damage caused by Washington and Tel Aviv.

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18 Shocking Facts That Prove The US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than Most People Realize

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The economy has been the number one issue for U.S. voters for several years in a row, and it isn’t because things are good.

Consumer confidence is at an all-time low, inflation is starting to accelerate once again, mass layoffs are being conducted all over the nation, and delinquencies and foreclosures are soaring. Nobody can dispute any of the facts that I am about to share with you. We have an enormous economic mess on our hands, and now the crisis in the Middle East threatens to plunge the entire global economic system into chaos in the months ahead. In other words, conditions are not good now and the outlook for the future is not promising at all.

The following are 18 shocking facts that prove that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than most people realize…

#1 Consumer confidence in the United States has fallen to an all-time record low

Consumer confidence plunged to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy prices and the broader impact of the Iran war, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

The university’s headline index of consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6, down 10.7% from the March survey to its lowest on record. Current conditions and expectations indexes also saw double-digit monthly declines.

#2 Student loan delinquencies have exploded to a level that we have never seen before

Student loan delinquency has climbed to roughly 25 percent of borrowers with payments due during the first year of the current Trump administration, according to new analysis.

Researchers from The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers said the sharp rise in missed payments, nearly triple the pre-coronavirus pandemic rate, has pushed millions into default risk and lowered credit scores, warning of broader financial fallout for households and colleges facing higher nonpayment rates.

#3 The monthly cost of owning a home has risen to absurd heights

All in, the median monthly housing payment for an owner — including mortgage principal and interest, taxes, homeowners insurance, and estimated maintenance expenses — has ballooned to more than $2,800, a staggering 72% jump from $1,635 six years earlier.

#4 Foreclosure filings were way up in 2025, and so far in 2026 we are 26 percent above last year’s pace…

A fresh wave of foreclosures is sweeping across the United States, with more than 118,000 homes caught up in the crisis in just the first three months of 2026.

It is a grim omen – with echoes of the run up to the 2008 Great Recession – that financial pressure is mounting for thousands of families.

New Attom data shows 118,727 properties were hit with a foreclosure filing in the first quarter – up 26 percent on the same period last year.

#5 The number of Americans that cannot pay their credit card bills in full each month has reached another record high

More than 111 million people could not pay off their monthly credit-card bills in full at the end of last year, marking a new record, according to new estimates from consumer advocates. That’s roughly 2 million more people unable to pay in full compared to the end of 2024, they noted.

These card holders now owe banks more than $1 trillion — and most are inching closer to maxing out their credit lines, according to researchers at the Century Foundation, a progressive think tank, and Protect Borrowers, a nonprofit group that advocates for borrowers.

#6 As the cost of living soars, people are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at a record rate in a desperate attempt to make ends meet…

More Americans are digging into their retirement savings because of financial emergencies.

Last year, a record 6% of workers in 401(k) plans administered by Vanguard Group took a hardship withdrawal. That is up from 4.8% in 2024 and a prepandemic average of about 2%, according to Vanguard.

#7 Food prices continue to escalate, and the price of coffee has more than doubled since 2019…

A 16-item basket of groceries made up of staples like eggs, bread, and meat — no truffle cheese in our cart — rang in nearly 43% higher in March compared to the same month in 2019.

A few key categories are behind the rise: Coffee prices have more than doubled since the pandemic, while beef prices have soared more recently.

#8 For the first time ever, the price of a pound of ground beef is now higher than the federal minimum wage in many parts of the country…

The cost of a pound of ground beef has hit a major threshold. Depending on where you shop, the grocery staple likely costs more than the federal minimum wage.

Money analyzed ground beef prices at seven of the most popular grocery chains across the U.S., finding that 1 pound of the typical 20% fat ground beef costs between $6.49 and $8.96. Organic, grass-fed and leaner varieties tend to cost much more.

On the other hand, the federal minimum wage sits at $7.25 per hour.

#9 The Federal Reserve is telling us that 42.5 percent of recent college graduates were underemployed at the end of 2025…

Historically, college graduates have tended to find jobs faster and experience lower unemployment than workers without a degree. But recent data suggests it’s now harder to find a job that fits your skill set once you graduate.

According to the Federal Reserve of New York, 42.5% of recent college graduates (aged 22 to 27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher) are underemployed as of December 2025 — the highest rate since October 2020. Underemployment refers to working in a role that underutilizes your skills, usually at a lower wage or in a part-time position.

#10 We continue to see retailers close locations all over the nation at a staggering rate. For example, Grocery Outlet has announced that they will be permanently closing 36 stores

Grocery Outlet – the California-based retailer famous for selling products at steep discounts – says it will close 36 stores nationwide as part of a sweeping restructuring plan designed to improve profitability.

The company revealed the move while reporting its latest financial results, saying it had conducted a ‘strategic, financial and operational analysis’ of its entire store network.

#11 Not to be outdone, Papa John’s has announced that they will be closing approximately 300 restaurants

Pizza chain Papa John’s said it plans to close hundreds of underperforming restaurants in North America by the end of next year.

“We have identified approximately 300 underperforming restaurants across North America that are not meeting brand expectations or lack a clear path to sustainable financial improvement, as well as locations where we can effectively transfer sales to a nearby restaurant,” Papa John’s Chief Financial Officer Ravi Thanawala said last week during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

#12 One of our “too big to fail” banks has decided that now is the time to cut about 2,500 jobs

Morgan Stanley is slashing about 3% of its global workforce — roughly 2,500 jobs — across its key divisions, as the Wall Street giant realigns priorities amid a banner year for profits, sources familiar with the matter have told The Post.

The cuts hit the Ted Pick-led lender’s investment banking, trading, and wealth management units, the people close to the situation said.

#13 EBay will be conducting yet another round of layoffs. This time around approximately 800 workers will get the axe…

EBay said Thursday it is cutting about 800 roles, or 6% of its workforce, in the latest round of layoffs at the e-commerce company.

“We are taking steps to reinvest across our business and align our structure with our strategic priorities, which will affect certain roles across our workforce,” an eBay spokesperson said in a statement. “We are grateful for the contributions of the employees impacted and are committed to supporting them with care and respect.”

#14 At one time Wendy’s was doing great, but in 2026 it will be permanently shuttering hundreds of locations

Fast-food chain Wendy’s will shutter 5% to 6% of its stores nationwide in the first half of 2026 as part of an ongoing downsizing plan.

Interim CEO Ken Cook first told investors in a Nov. 7 quarterly earnings call that the company would be closing a “mid single-digit percentage” of its nearly 6,000 locations nationwide.

#15 Meta, the parent company of Facebook, apparently intends to let nearly 8,000 employees go in the very near future…

Meta is preparing to cut thousands of jobs as early as next month, with deeper layoffs expected later this year, according to a report.

The tech giant intends to slash roughly 10% of its global workforce — or nearly 8,000 employees — in an initial round of cuts on May 20, sources told Reuters.

The company is also planning additional layoffs in the second half of the year, though details including timing and scope remain unclear, the outlet reported.

#16 From coast to coast, thousands of supply chain workers have been told to hit the bricks in recent weeks…

A wave of layoffs across U.S. supply chains — from EV battery plants and auto parts factories to warehouses and rail terminals — has affected nearly 4,000 workers in recent weeks, according to company announcements and WARN filings across multiple states.

Recent WARN filings and company announcements show job cuts across at least a dozen companies in states including California, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alabama.

The largest layoffs in the recent wave are coming from the automotive and industrial supply chain. SK Battery America said it laid off 958 workers — about 37% of its workforce — at its electric vehicle battery plant in Commerce, Georgia, citing shifting EV demand as automakers reassess production plans.

#17 According to Newsweek, the following list of companies have all announced layoffs during the month of April…

  • Blue Shield of California
  • Zenith Logistics
  • Perdue Foods
  • ERN Services
  • Boston Electrometallurgical Corporation
  • First Brands Group
  • GEODIS
  • MicroVision
  • IPIC Theaters
  • Goulet Trucking
  • CJ Logistics
  • L3Harris
  • Supernal
  • Heritage Bank of Commerce
  • Angel City Brewery
  • VCA Bay Area Veterinary Specialists
  • Monroe Operations
  • Meteor Creative
  • Viskon-Aire Corporation
  • C3.ai
  • Safari West
  • Main Street Sports Group Cincinnati
  • Raley’s
  • Koppers
  • Wells Fargo
  • Lucid Group
  • Hornblower Cruises and Events
  • Charles River Laboratories
  • Wescom Financial
  • Bluum USA
  • CHS Northwest
  • Catalent
  • Liberty Dental Plan
  • GXO Logistics

#18 The total unfunded obligations of the U.S. government have now reached a staggering total of 130.12 trillion dollars

On March 17, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury quietly released the federal government’s fiscal year 2025 financial report. Buried in its tables is a number that should dominate our national conversation – but doesn’t: Total federal obligations now stand at $130.12 trillion.

That figure is not a rounding error or a political talking point. It is derived from the government’s own accounting – combining the reported negative net position (driven largely by bonded debt) with the present value of projected shortfalls in major social insurance programs. Yet public debate continues to revolve almost exclusively around the much smaller figure of Treasury securities outstanding.

There is no way that anyone can spin the facts that I have just shared with you to make them look good.

So if conditions are already this bad, what will things be like six months from now if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed?

We really are in unprecedented territory, and the truth is the economic conditions could easily get a lot worse during the months ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

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TerraPower Commences Construction of Utility-Scale Advanced Reactor

TerraPower has officially broken ground on Kemmerer Unit 1 in Wyoming, set to become America’s first utility-scale advanced nuclear power plant.

The April 23 announcement marks the start of full construction on the Natrium reactor, a 345-megawatt sodium-cooled fast reactor paired with a molten salt-based energy storage system that can ramp output to 500 megawatts for over five hours to handle peak demand.

The project sits near a retiring coal plant in Kemmerer, making it Wyoming’s first commercial nuclear generating station. Non-nuclear site preparation began in June 2024 after years of engineering and regulatory hurdles. 

The DOE’s Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program provided public-private backing, with Bechtel handling engineering, procurement and construction, and GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy contributing reactor technology. 

With commercial operations targeted around 2030, The U.S. may finally get on the board for having a utility scale reactor under construction…

As we reported when the NRC granted the construction permit in March, this step represents the start of actual nuclear facility construction. Up until now, all the work at the site has been for the non-nuclear systems. We also covered TerraPower’s agreement with Meta for up to eight Natrium plants by 2035 to support data center power needs.

TerraPower President and CEO Chris Levesque described the moment as one the industry has been working towards for a generation. “We’re not just breaking new ground on a first-of-a-kind nuclear plant in Wyoming; we’re building the next generation of America’s energy infrastructure.”

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Why Did China Reserve A Vast Offshore Airspace For 40 Days Without Explanation?

Authored by via The Epoch Times,

China has imposed a 40-day offshore airspace restriction larger than Taiwan without explanation, signaling a potential shift toward sustained military readiness near Japan and U.S. allies.

China filed Notices to Air Missions (NOTAMs) reserving offshore airspace in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea from March 27 to May 6, a 40-day window, without announcing any military exercises or offering a public explanation. The reserved zones cover an area larger than Taiwan’s main island, spanning from the Yellow Sea facing South Korea to the East China Sea facing Japan, including airspace north and south of Shanghai.

The restrictions carry no vertical ceiling, designated SFC-UNL, meaning surface to unlimited altitude. Civil aviation remains unaffected. Commercial flights are still permitted to pass through these areas, but must coordinate carefully with Chinese air traffic control authorities.

NOTAMs of this type have previously been used to signal Chinese military exercises, which typically last a few days. China has issued comparable restrictions along the same coastline at least four times in the past 18 months, but those lasted only three days and were openly linked to announced exercises, missile launches, or live-fire training events.

This time, Beijing provided no warning, no declared exercise, and no explanation. China’s Ministry of Defense and civil aviation authorities issued no statements and did not respond to requests for comment.

The November and December 2024 precedent is directly relevant. In November 2024, Shanghai air traffic control issued a NOTAM restricting seven large sections of airspace off China’s coast for periods spanning three days. Those zones overlapped with airspace subsequently used during large-scale military exercises in December 2024.

China provided no reason for the November restrictions, and they passed relatively unnoticed by the international media. Analysts assessed that they may have served as a rehearsal for the more significant airspace reservations that accompanied the December exercises.

Ray Powell, director of Stanford University’s SeaLight project, which tracks Chinese maritime activity, told The Wall Street Journal that the combination of SFC-UNL designation and a 40-day duration with no announced exercise suggests “a sustained operational readiness posture—and one that China apparently doesn’t feel the need to explain.”

Christopher Sharman, director of the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute, said the zones could provide China an opportunity to practice air combat maneuvers relevant to a Taiwan contingency.

Ben Lewis of PLATracker, an organization that analyzes the Chinese military and regional security development, assessed that the longer window likely gives China’s military scheduling flexibility for spring training and said he does not anticipate major exercises given the Kuomintang chair’s visit to Beijing and the planned Trump–Xi summit in mid-May.

The restricted zones lie hundreds of miles north of Taiwan but sit directly along approaches facing Japan and South Korea. A senior Taiwanese security official told the Journal the reservation is “clearly aimed at Japan,” reflecting Chinese efforts to deter U.S. allies and erode American military influence in the Indo-Pacific while U.S. attention remains on the Middle East conflict.

Past Chinese drills have focused on controlling air routes the U.S. military would use in a Taiwan contingency, and the pause in daily PLA flights near Taiwan that preceded these NOTAMs also remains unexplained.

The restrictions carry implications for the United States, Japan, and Taiwan. The United States recently moved long-range missile assets from the Pacific to the Middle East, and the restricted zones cover approaches directly relevant to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command force projection. Japan faces the most direct exposure, as the East China Sea portion of the restricted airspace faces Japan’s southwestern island chain, where Japan has deployed long-range missiles capable of reaching parts of mainland China.

By using a routine aviation mechanism without stating a military purpose, China imposes costs, heightened readiness, intelligence resources, and diplomatic caution on all three parties simultaneously, without triggering the international backlash that an announced large-scale exercise would generate.

No public U.S. government response to the restrictions has been reported. The U.S. military nonetheless continues operations in the region. USS John Finn conducted a Taiwan Strait transit on March 10, with the U.S. 7th Fleet stating the mission “demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific” and that American forces “will continue to fly, sail, and operate anywhere international law allows.”

On March 28, one day after China’s airspace restrictions took effect, Japanese fighter jets scrambled to intercept a new variant of China’s Y-9FQ anti-submarine warfare aircraft over the East China Sea, approximately 160 miles northeast of Okinawa. Japan’s Ministry of Defense, in releasing details of the intercept, stated that it “will continue to collect information and conduct surveillance on military movements around Japan 24 hours a day and will take all necessary measures against airspace violations.”

Japan has also increased defense spending to 2 percent of GDP ahead of schedule and is working with the United States to expand the joint military presence in Japan’s southwestern region.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

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