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50 Iranian Tanker Logjam Unfolds As US Naval Blockade Starves Tehran Of Oil Revenue

Bloomberg cites a new report from United Against Nuclear Iran that claims the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has created a parking lot of more than 50 Iranian tankers that dare not cross the critical waterway.

The nonprofit think tank, which focuses on combating threats posed by Iran, said the number of laden tankers was broadly unchanged from two months earlier. The tankers were mostly carrying crude, along with some petroleum products and LNG.

UANI also noted that empty tankers were waiting at anchorages across the Indo-Pacific region rather than returning to Iranian ports, adding that at least 20 Iran-flagged ships were positioned off Sri Lanka and another was off Oman.

UANI's report comes days after Bloomberg said Iran's crude loadings fell to zero in September.

Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined Mike Allen on "The Axios Show" and confirmed: "For the first time in history, they [Iran], since they started pumping oil, they will have no oil on the water this week. They will have no revenue."

Separately, last week, Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Alexandra Paulus, and Daan Struyven told clients that a "divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers" was underway.

The Goldman energy experts estimated that "dark exports" have helped boost Persian Gulf oil exports to 23.3 million barrels a day late last month, back to prewar levels.

All indications so far point to the Trump administration's "Operation Economic Outcast" working as planned, with allied Gulf exports continuing to flow while Iran is starved of oil revenue amid the blockade. The question is whether this plan should've been implemented on day one of the conflict.

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SpaceX "Looks Unusually Cheap" On The Forward: Morgan Stanley

SpaceX shares rose more than 5% in mid-morning trading in New York, breaking above the trading range that had contained the stock since mid-August. Shares climbed past the $160 level to $167.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote that SpaceX shares at these levels offer an inexpensive way to gain exposure to the space and artificial intelligence economy when adjusted for projected earnings growth.

"We expect developments over the next few months will help investors better appreciate the role of SPCX in addressing the critical bottlenecks of power and chip making, potentially unlocking earnings growth and multiple expansion for the stock," Jonas wrote in a note to clients.

Jonas pointed out that, at $159 per share when the note was written, Elon Musk's company looks expensive. But when adjusted for year-over-year growth, "SpaceX trades at just ~0.3x 2028e EV/EBIT/Growth, ~40% below the ~0.5x mega cap median."

He said that ahead of the next Starship launch, traders can take advantage of the "unique opportunity" to gain exposure to shares that, while "expensive on any trailing metric, look unusually cheap on the forward."

Jonas believes that the combination of AI chatbot releases, Starship test launches toward commercialization and high-priced neocloud deals could push the stock closer to $300.

Shares are up more than 5% on Monday morning but remain well below the $225 high reached following a blockbuster IPO in mid-June. At $167, shares are well above the $135 IPO price.

"View Starship test flight 14 as a success, marking the transition from design/test to production-grade & scale. See accelerating pace of Starship deployment, with 2-3 addt'l launches by YE26, reusability of booster in NTM & Ship catch by early '28," Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski wrote in a note.

According to Bloomberg data, 36 analysts have a "Bull" rating on the stock, while seven have "Neutral" ratings and four have "Sell" ratings. The average 12-month price target among the analysts is around $217.

When can locked-up shareholders sell?

Here's the schedule:

Looking ahead, SpaceX is targeting the Starship Flight 15 test for no earlier than October 19, or about two weeks from now.

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US Treasury Grants Sanctions Waiver For Some Iranian Flights To Iraq

Via The Cradle

The office of Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced on Friday that Baghdad has secured a narrow exemption from US sanctions on Iran’s aviation sector, allowing Iranian airlines to resume up to 40 daily flights to Najaf International Airport.

The deal excludes Mahan Air, the statement said, welcoming US “cooperation in granting the necessary exemption.” It added that the move would ease travel for pilgrims, patients, and tourists affected by the sanctions. 

Wiki Commons

“Air travel does not merely represent transportation between two airports, but rather a bridge of communication between peoples,” it added.

Najaf is the chief hub for Iranian flights into Iraq, serving Iraqi Shia pilgrims bound for Iran’s holy cities and Iranians visiting shrines in Iraq. Iraq’s announcement came a day after Tehran called for the restrictions to be lifted. 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned Washington’s “illegal and inhumane” enforcement of sanctions beyond US borders, saying they targeted Iranian trade and aviation as part of Washington's campaign to isolate Iran economically.

Prior to the ban, roughly 25 Iranian flights a day landed in Najaf and about 15 in Baghdad, according to Iran’s ambassador to Baghdad, Mohammad Kazem al-Sadegh.

“Around 12,000 to 13,000 people travel between Iran and Iraq and vice versa on Iranian airlines, which is not a small number,” he told ISNA.

A source told Reuters that keeping the ban in place risked uniting Shia followers of Iran’s supreme leader and of Iraq’s Ali al-Sistani against Baghdad, undermining US efforts to curb Iranian influence in Iraq. Najaf airport had held out until September 25, when it too halted Iranian flights in line with US sanctions.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that, starting September 23, any company that fueled or serviced Iranian aircraft, or sold tickets for them, would be cut off from the dollar system.

Iran vowed to keep its international flights running in defiance of the US blockade, with Civil Aviation Organization spokesperson Majid Akhavan telling ISNA on 22 September that no flights had been canceled.

The pledge came as cancellations spread amid US pressure. Middle East Eye reported that Turkish Airlines, Pegasus, and AJet would halt all flights to and from Iran starting September 21.

The US Treasury sanctioned 36 entities linked to Iran’s aviation sector on 8 September as part of its so-called “Operation Economic Outcast” and withdrew the clearances that allowed non-US airlines to fly US-built or US-controlled commercial jets into Iran.

Washington’s measures applied to any foreign company doing business with Iranian airlines and to firms handling aircraft at Iraqi airports. Fearing US penalties, those firms stopped serving Iranian planes.

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Judge Freezes Border Wall In Big Bend, A Sector Covering A Quarter Of The Border But Just 1-3% Of Apprehensions

A federal judge in El Paso on Friday halted border wall construction across Texas's Big Bend region, a stretch of the frontier that accounts for only a sliver of illegal crossings.

US District Judge Kathleen Cardone read her order from the bench, issuing a preliminary injunction against "ground-disturbing activities" that stays in place while the case plays out, the Texas Tribune reports. She found the plaintiffs' constitutional claims likely to succeed.

The suit was brought by the Center for Biological Diversity on behalf of the Friends of the Ruidosa Church and a local river guide and landowner. It targets the federal waivers that let construction proceed "without following the National Environmental Policy Act, the Archaeological and Historic Preservation Act and many other laws," per Inside Climate News.

The work in question includes vehicle barriers and access roads inside Big Bend's state and national parks, plus a 30-foot steel wall on private land outside them. According to the Tribune, there are five contracted wall projects in the region. In May, Customs and Border Protection awarded a $1.7 billion contract for border wall in Big Bend, KWTX reported.

The Big Bend sector covers about a quarter of the length of the US-Mexico border but accounts for only 1% to 3% of Customs and Border Protection's migrant apprehensions each year, according to the Tribune.

Inside Climate News reports DOJ lawyers "presented few counterarguments and did not present any witnesses." CBP said it remains "confident in our legal authorities to secure the border."

At the hearing, Adam Isacson, an analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, presented data showing Big Bend in "distant last place" in unauthorized crossings among the nine sectors that make up the US border with Mexico, Inside Climate News reports.

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Siberian Plague-Lab Death Draws FSB Escort For Ambulances

A possible plague case in Siberia has triggered a major containment effort after the death of a 28-year-old employee of an anti-plague laboratory. A hospital wing is under quarantine, nearly 200 people are reportedly under observation, and Russia's chief sanitary official has flown in. Local outlets say FSB units have been escorting ambulances carrying the woman's contacts for examination.

The authorities are clearly taking the threat seriously - but getting a straight answer out of the feds is another matter. Irkutsk Governor Igor Kobzev is still calling it a "particularly dangerous infection," while assuring residents that every identified contact is symptom-free and testing negative.

The dead lab worker has been identified as Daria Shipilova, a laboratory assistant at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East, according to Lyudi Baikala and REN TV. She was admitted to hospital in Shelekhov with severe pneumonia, placed on a ventilator, and died. Reports differ slightly on the timeline: The Moscow Times gives a September 29 admission and a Thursday death (48 hours), while Lyudi Baikala says she spent three days in hospital. 

According to The Moscow Times, Shipilova told medical staff she had accidentally broken a tube containing live bacteria while collecting samples. Lyudi Baikala, citing journalist Pavel Stepanov and the Telegram channel Mash, placed the alleged accident on September 25 and linked it to plague bacteria. Those reports describe the illness as pneumonic plague, although neither that diagnosis nor the laboratory accident has been publicly confirmed by investigators. IRK.ru reported that doctors initially suspected severe COVID and sent her to the hospital's COVID center.

By the evening of October 1, security and administrative officials were meeting in Irkutsk. Lyudi Baikala, citing a source close to law enforcement, reported that FSB units began accompanying ambulances transporting Shipilova's contacts for examination that day. The Insider carried the same account, while residents reported seeing people in protective suits on the streets. The FSB has not confirmed the escorts.

Shelekhov district head Maxim Modin confirmed that the hospital's inpatient department was under quarantine; the outpatient clinic remained open. Kobzev said the sanitary-epidemiological commission had convened on October 2 over a suspected "particularly dangerous infection." Anna Popova, who heads Rospotrebnadzor, the federal agency that runs Russia's disease surveillance and owns the anti-plague institutes, traveled to attend. The governor told TASS it was premature to identify the disease and made no mention of a death. Irkutsk also postponed a city cleanup day scheduled for October 3.

The reported contact numbers suggest how widely authorities are casting the net. REN TV and Izvestia put the total at roughly 197, with 189 hospitalized for observation: 114 in one facility, 63 in another, and 12 at the anti-plague institute. Eight remained outside hospital, and some accounts said the list was still growing. No secondary infection has been confirmed. Kobzev's October 2 statement said the contacts had no symptoms and negative tests, although some media reports claimed several people under observation had developed symptoms.

First Official Use Of 'Plague' 

The leader of Buryatia (the next region over from the lab), Alexey Tsydenov, wrote that the woman who died of plague in Irkutsk region had not visited his republic. Citing Rospotrebnadzor and his government, he also said Buryatia had no plague foci, including along the Mongolian border. But even that acknowledgment became less definite: Meduza reported that he later edited the post to say she "may have died of plague." He did not identify the pneumonic form.

Meanwhile, competing accounts sent Shipilova to Thailand or Buryatia before she fell ill. Tsydenov denied the Buryatia visit. Gennady Onishchenko, who ran Rospotrebnadzor until 2013, questioned whether plague was involved at all, pointing to dormant rodents and fleas and snow already falling in Buryatia. That argument addresses a possible wildlife exposure; it does not resolve the allegation that she broke a tube of bacteria at work.

Izvestia and the Telegram channel Ostorozhno Novosti both report that investigators have opened a criminal case under Article 236, which covers sanitary violations that cause death by negligence. Nobody has confirmed it on the record. That charge only makes sense if somebody broke a rule at work.

By Saturday, some of the public information was disappearing. Baikalsk's administration posted a notice urging residents to limit travel to Shelekhov and nearby settlements, citing "unofficial information" about a plague case. Roughly two hours later, the notice was gone. REN TV also deleted five Telegram posts about the Shelekhov hospitalization figures.

Kobzev's Saturday post concerned an inspection by Roszdravnadzor, the healthcare-quality regulator rather than the epidemiological service, and did not address the infection. Comments asking why there was still no official statement went unanswered. Meanwhile, Lyudi Baikala reported that pharmacies in Irkutsk and Shelekhov had sold out of antibiotics.

The institute where Shipilova worked was founded in 1934 to fight plague and still leads plague surveillance for the region, alongside cholera, anthrax and tularemia. It is one of five such institutes nationally and the only one covering Siberia and the Far East. Natural plague foci remain in parts of southern Siberia, including Tuva, Altai and Transbaikal. Russia's last widely reported human case involved a child in the Altai Republic in 2016 and was linked to marmots.

The negative tests are welcome news, and the reports so far do not establish a spreading outbreak. But a young laboratory worker is dead, a hospital wing is quarantined, and almost 200 contacts have reportedly been identified. "Particularly dangerous infection" is a description of the stakes. It still isn't an explanation of what happened.

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