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Here's One October Surprise, Anyway...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

"The Left has always preferred the ashes of its own making to the inheritance of better men." - Celina101 on X

By now, everybody and his uncle interested in public matters has probably read that a claque of current-and-former agency officials, ex-USAID busybodies, military officers, activist academics, Democratic Party paladins, and freelance communist jihadis has been exposed plotting the overthrow of the US government. The plot was reported by the diligent "X" blogger Jennica Pounds under her nom-de-plume "Data Republican," who lately received an enormous document-and-recording dump courtesy of careless color revolutionaries who recorded themselves and saved doc files against orders, the dumb bunnies.

Erica Chenoweth of Harvard (They / Them?) Master Color Revolutionary

Ms. Pounds, an experienced software engineer turned political detective, came to public attention early in 2025 when she assisted Elon Musk's DOGE operation in building a database of NGO money trails emanating from the colossal USAID grant matrix - after which her identity was "doxed" by Rolling Stone and she underwent a harassment campaign.

Of course, USAID was abolished early in the Trump 2.0 admin, and a lot of the "activists" defenestrated from it moved into scores of NGOs, with their salaries switched from taxpayer funding to the bank accounts of George Soros-connected orgs and sundry other shady characters like Shanghai-based Neville Roy Singham. These are the NGOs forever puling about "our democracy," meaning their drive to punish, persecute, and push around Americans who demur from a communist future. Data Republican says her reporting so far is "only the beginning" of much more detailed and alarming disclosures.

Coincidentally this week, their cover was also blown by Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-MI and former CIA analyst), who told an audience at the U. of Chicago that the Democrats intend to go after and wreck any young person who might think about working in the current administration. Ms. Slotkin, you might recall, was in that video put out a year ago - with five other US lawmakers - telling military officers they should-and-must refuse "illegal" orders. Sedition-lite, it looked like at the time.

Before we get into the meat of their playbook for us, and what might happen in response, let's just dox a few of the characters involved. You should know who they are (and maybe the DOJ should, too). They are not necessarily the usual suspects you've read about before like the omnipresent lawfare ninjas, Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, Mary McCord, et al., so busy filing frivolous lawsuits in the federal courts.

For instance (as reported by one Eric Schwalm on "X"), there's Erica Chenoweth, the transvestite professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of government who acts as chief strategist and hub for the "color revolution" planned by the United Democracy Alliance cabal she is associated with. Ms. (or Mr.?) Chenoweth's big contribution to Jacobin thought is "the 3.5 rule" which says that if you can get that percentage of people out on the streets making a ruckus, you can successfully overthrow a government.

Then there's Danielle Reiff, former USAID, now co-founder of the Democracy Renewal Group, Renew American Democracy, and Renew to Thrive orgs. . . very verbal on video laying out the exact procedures for the US color revolution. And there's Rear Admiral Michael E. Smith (Ret.) who runs a network of over a thousand retired military officers called National Security Leaders for America. He's in charge of "role-playing" exercises in preparation for post-election hijinks. Then there's Julia Roig, founder of the Horizons Project who is responsible for "building relational infrastructure so that disparate groups can act in concert without a single hierarchical command." Then there's Maria Stephan, co-author, with Erica Chenoweth, of the sedition tract Why Civil Resistance Works. Then there's Brenden Halloran, former USAID, now with the Renew to Thrive org, responsible for "accountability ecosystems, overcoming fragmentation among groups, and long-term sequencing of reforms." Then there's Walt Roberts, also on the Renew to Thrive team, plus the Mediators Foundation and the Inter-Movement Impact Project. Then there's Laura Adams, also former USAID, now in Renew to Thrive and PACT, whose mission is to turn strategy papers into operational plans. Then there's Zoe Marks, also in Harvard's Kennedy School, a "scenario-planner" for Horizons and United Democracy Alliance. Then there's "cohesion" strategist Paul Zeitz, co-founder of UnifyUSA, partner with Danielle Reiff on Renew to Thrive, and active in NGOs Renew to Thrive and National Security Leaders for America. There's the bunch. Now you know.

Top row: Reiff, Smith, Roig; Center row: Roberts, Halloran, Adams; Bottom Row: Stephan, Slotkin, Chenoweth

As to the coup playbook, here goes: The idea is to turn out massive street actions (protests and riots) in the blue cities, based on rumors that President Trump has somehow "interfered" in the election, and create enough chaos so that Mr. Trump would be tempted to invoke the Insurrection Act or some-such national emergency measure. The coupsters mentioned above, and their cohorts and underlings, have been quietly confabbing with blue state attorneys general and governors. These officials would unite to declare that Mr. Trump's actions make him illegitimate, and would set in-motion procedures for said governors to declare the president a tyrant and an outlaw and themselves as the "new governing authority." They would move from that to a new constitutional convention and bring about all the heralded revolutionary changes chattered about for months such as abolishing the electoral college and Senate, changing-up the Supreme Court, etc. Voila! Trump and his government are out! The Democratic Party (and their new DSA commissars) would take over and the punishments would begin. . . .

But. . . what if President Trump doesn't play along? What if he insists that the blue state governors must ask (or beg) for federal troops to be sent in to control the street violence in their cities before he commits to anything? Then the onus would be theirs, wouldn't it? They will have asked for help? Mr. Trump will have obliged. How does that make him a tyrant? (It doesn't, of course.) Or. . . the blue state governors might not ask for federal help and Mr. Trump could just watch their cities burn down. That would kind of be on the blue governors, too, wouldn't it - hey, they didn't ask for federal troops and their own feckless police couldn't get the job done because: previous "de-funding" and all that nonsense.

Then, how about Mr. Trump moves to arrest said blue state governors for sedition and treason (especially if they entertained any collusion with foreign operators, such as CCP-connected Neville Roy Singham's NGO network or any of Soros's overseas outfits)? And how about arresting and likewise charging many of those aforementioned NGO strategists, along with the governors? (And while you're at it, throw in the lawfare ninjas who have assisted in all this mischief.) And how about after accomplishing that, the president then and only then declares the Insurrection Act, sends in federal troops to quell the street chaos, and moves to indict and try said seditionists and traitors in the military tribunal apparatus? There it is! Just some suggestions. . . .

* * *

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/23/2026 - 16:20
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Republicans Face Losing Senate Seat They've Held for 107 Years, And It All Comes Down To One Thing

Republicans are confronting an increasingly concerning political situation in Kansas, where a Senate seat the party has held for more than a century has become unexpectedly competitive.

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton debated in Kansas City, discussing the Iran war, fuel prices, and campaign attack ads as Election Day approaches. SOURCE: Associated Press

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in a reelection contest that recent polling suggests is within single digits, despite the Sunflower State not having elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932.

During an appearance on Fox Business Network's Big Money, Marshall was pressed about why the race remains so close.

"Well, no, I think it's the price of gasoline," Marshall declared. "It's that simple, and I'm not sure it's as close as what the national polls are showing. Six years ago, I was an open seat. The poll showed the same thing, and we won by 11 points. Now, I don't think we're going to win by 11 points right now."

Marshall also blamed negative media coverage of President Donald Trump for shaping perceptions of the economy.

"The national media, the legacy media has just beat the heck out of President Trump now for, what, 10 years, and despite what's really a pretty strong economy here in Kansas, the legacy media is just telling you the sky is falling," the senator said.

The national polling shows why the senator's worried.

An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey found that 71% of Americans consider gasoline unaffordable, compared with 28% in February. Additionally, a Pew Research Center survey found that 74% of Americans are very concerned about gasoline and energy prices, up from 43% in January.

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"Polished But Rough": First Major Review Casts Doubt On Foldable iPhone Duo's Mass Adoption

Tech YouTuber Marques Brownlee, who has more than 21 million subscribers, offered a mixed first take on Apple's foldable iPhone Duo ahead of its Friday release, describing the device as "very polished around the edges, but kind of rough in the middle."

Brownlee's review of Apple's first foldable iPhone may present a hurdle to adoption. At more than $2,000, the Duo's first-generation shortcomings could make buyers reluctant to pay the hefty premium, prompting some to wait for a second generation.

"It's $2,000 to get an iPad mini that can fit in your pocket. 120 Hz iPad Mini OLED fits in your pocket. Have you ever wanted that? They made it. They did it. Great. This is the first generation. It's made for you. But also, yeah, it is it is polished but rough," Brownlee noted.

The Duo is slightly thicker and heavier than the latest Samsung Galaxy Z Fold, a difference Brownlee said "makes a big difference in daily use."

After testing the Duo for a week, he said, "you would be happy if it were 20% lighter."

Brownlee pointed out that the battery capacity is about 4,900 mAh, split across the two halves. With typical mixed use (roughly 75% closed and 25% open), Brownlee called it a "very efficient phone" and "an all-day phone and then some," regularly finishing the day with more than 30% battery remaining.

The dual rear cameras (48 MP main and ultra-wide) are "right on par with the rest of the foldables" and "solid" most of the time, though the smaller main sensor gets noisier in weaker light and there is no optical zoom, he explained.

He continued, "The app situation on the iPhone Duo is its biggest downside right now."

"I think after the learning curve and getting used to not having Face ID, this is a really fun phone to use," he added.

Brownlee's verdict is mixed:

If you are the iPhone filmmaker who wants the absolute best cameras to go shoot their next thing, no. Uh if you're the type of person who breaks your phone every like nine months cuz you drop it all the time, yep, probably no. But if the $2,000 or the difference between 35 and 55 bucks a month doesn't mean much to you and you just kind of like the idea and want to jump in, I think after the learning curve and and getting used to not having Face ID, this is a really fun phone to use.

And it's really just cuz that polish, that polish around the edges goes a long way towards the fun factor. So, the awesome animations, the incredible hinge, the wonderful inside display, like all of that is just really nice and it hides a little bit of the rough core. Like, it will feel a little heavy sometimes and not all your favorite apps will be updated right out the box, but it is fun.

Apple can't completely engineer their way around the compromises of this form factor, like the slightly worse battery and the slightly worse speakers and the slightly worse cameras. Like, that's just physics. But what they have done is an admirable job with their first generation. Now, I'm just going to have to cross my fingers that second generation actually listens to some of that core feedback cuz that could be an amazing phone.

Watch The Duo Review Here Before Buying

Last Friday, when preorders for the Duo opened, we pointed out the incredible initial demand as delivery estimates slipped further and further beyond this Friday by the minute.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Duo's estimated delivery date is January 22.

The question remains whether the Duo, at a base price of $2,000, can achieve mass adoption, given that Tim Cook's $3,400 Vision Pro was a total disaster. Now it's John Ternus' turn to prove to investors that Apple still has demand for its premium products.

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1% Of Companies Account For 80% Of OpenAI And Anthropic Spending - And It Just Stalled

Just 1% of companies account for 80% of all business spending on OpenAI and Anthropic, according to corporate card giant Ramp, which tracks payments across more than 70,000 U.S. businesses. Ramp lead economist Ara Kharazian, who flagged the figure in early September, noted that spending on the two AI labs is more concentrated than in any other software category the firm tracks.

Per capita, the biggest spenders are overwhelmingly venture-backed. According to Ramp's summer report, the median VC-backed startup spent $76 per employee per month on AI - more than ten times the $7 spent at private equity-backed firms.

That top-heavy dynamic mirrors what YipitData uncovered at Anthropic specifically: the lab's top 1% of customers generated 46% of its revenue in August, nearly doubling from 25% a year earlier. How many of those whale customers, we asked at the time, are funded by the very same VCs backing Anthropic?

Anthropic's IPO prospectus - the updated version of which we dissected yesterday - confirms the concentration at the very top: just two unnamed customers generated nearly a quarter of its 2025 revenue, according to Reuters. Their identities aren't hard to guess. Last year, two AI coding tools - Cursor and Microsoft's GitHub Copilot - drove roughly $1.2 billion of Anthropic's $5 billion annualized revenue run-rate, as VentureBeat reported.

Follow the money. Cursor's parent company, Anysphere, raised $2.3 billion at a $29.3 billion valuation last November in a round co-led by Accel and Coatue, alongside Thrive Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Nvidia, and Google. Three months later, Coatue and Singapore's GIC led Anthropic's massive $30 billion Series G, with Nvidia again participating. Coatue's cash flows into Cursor, Cursor spends it on Claude tokens, those tokens book as Anthropic revenue, and that revenue underwrites the markups on Coatue's Anthropic stake.

Even the scorekeeper is inside the loop. Ramp itself raised $1.85 billion at a $60 billion valuation last week in a round led by Dragoneer, Thrive, Founders Fund, Sands Capital, and Avenir Growth. Its cap table also features Coatue, D1, ICONIQ, GIC, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, General Catalyst, and Lightspeed - every single one of which, alongside Dragoneer and Founders Fund, backed Anthropic's Series G.

Volumes Up, Dollars Flat

Yet it is Ramp's own economist who is documenting the cracks in the facade. In his October AI Index - pointedly titled "Cracks in the AI Thesis Part 3" - Kharazian reported that the top 1% of AI-spending firms shelled out $9,568 per employee in September. While that was up 11.7% from August, it remained 3.1% below July's peak of $9,873.

Across the broader cohort, the stall is even starker. In August and September, Ramp recorded "two straight months of virtually no growth in token spend," even as raw token volumes continued to climb.

Total dollar spend did eke out a new high in early October, but cleared its previous August peak by a paltry 1.5%.

Source: Ramp Rate

The culprit, according to Kharazian, is deflation: "the main driver is price declines at the frontier, in addition to efficiency and quality improvements for models across intelligence levels, that are driving the blended price per million tokens down."

Source: Ramp Rate

Nor have the AI labs been able to lock in their biggest customers. Asked whether OpenAI and Anthropic are using enterprise contracts to guarantee revenue, Kharazian noted that buyers hold all the leverage. Enterprise deals are rarely signed on the assumption of higher-than-normal spend, and when they are, "the labs are willing to provide concessions in the form of discounts on models from the sticker price." His takeaway: "These contracts could contribute to price cuts without driving additional volume."

The customer base isn't widening much, either. Paid AI adoption across Ramp's corporate network nudged up just 0.62 percentage points to 55.9% in September. "It feels like we're at the top of the S-curve," Kharazian wrote, "where the growth in the market will have to come from more intense adoption rather than more customers."

Source: Ramp Rate

Anthropic Joins The Price War

Meanwhile, Anthropic's realized token price has been cut in half in just a month. The Ornn Anthropic Token Price Index - which measures the actual dollars customers pay per token consumed - has cratered to $0.83 per million tokens from over $1.70 in mid-September, marking a record low since the benchmark launched in June.

Even after that plunge, Anthropic remains pricier than OpenAI, whose index sits at $0.45. OpenAI's realized pricing collapsed in late July after it slashed rates on its GPT-5.6 Luna and Terra models by up to 80% - just three days after Chinese lab Moonshot released the open weights for Kimi K3, the model blamed for sending chip stocks into a bear market earlier that month. OpenAI has since reportedly leaned toward delaying its IPO until 2027.

Jevons Isn't Riding To The Rescue

The bulls' reflex answer to relentless price cuts is Jevons paradox: make tokens cheap enough, and usage will explode so fast that total revenue rises anyway. The data isn't cooperating. In a Sept. 25 note, Goldman Sachs warned that "token demand growth will need to outpace declining token prices to support continued growth in investment spending," noting that while "frontier models are currently a key source of demand for hyperscaler compute," cheap open-source rivals are rapidly gaining ground. By Goldman's estimate - built on Anera and OpenRouter data - total token demand has surged roughly 18-fold since December, but demand for high-margin frontier models has grown only half as fast.

That margin squeeze is now flowing directly upstream to the companies building the data centers. Goldman calculates that realized return on invested capital (ROIC) across Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle has fallen from 40% to 25% - the lowest reading in its dataset going back to 2016.

On Tuesday - the same day Citadel's Ken Griffin told Bloomberg that markets are "almost certainly" in an AI bubble - Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok diagnosed the underlying demand problem. "Silicon Valley operates on the premise that compute demand is unlimited, yet the recent slowdown in token spending growth suggests that this appetite may exist only when compute is effectively free," Slok wrote, citing Ramp's figures. Instead of inelastic hunger, compute faces "a flat, highly price-sensitive demand curve, where even modest changes in token prices can drive buyers to throttle usage or substitute cheap open-source alternatives."

"Ultimately, the number-one variable governing the viability of data center construction models is not physical capacity or power; it is the actual price users are willing to pay for the compute being built," Slok concluded. Corporate buyers will only pay a premium if they can translate tokens into "higher top-line growth, bigger profit margins or substantial cost savings, little of which is showing up at scale yet. Maybe that will come in the future. Maybe not."

Back in June, Ramp product director Adam Sommer boasted to a New York panel that "our largest AI spenders at Ramp are seeing their spend double month-over-month for the last several months." Three months later, the top 1% were spending less per employee than they had in July.

 

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Pollster Cited By NY Times, Other Outlets Admits It's Fake

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A purported company whose polls were listed by a slew of outlets, including The New York Times, has said that all but one of its surveys were not real.

Wedgewood Polling said in a statement on Oct. 20 that it was developed by people who previously worked in the poll sector and wondered how easy it would be for a fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and "expose how little scrutinization exists in media and public commentary."

The entity said that its surveys often did not have any real data behind them, but they were nonetheless included in poll averages by the NY Times and some other outlets.

"Our fabricated numbers were given instant credibility across national media platforms - including being cited on air and in reporting by outlets such as MS Now," Wedgewood Polling said. "The ease with which unverified figures were absorbed into mainstream political narratives highlights a systemic breakdown in media vetting and data aggregation."

The surveys largely favored Democrats, including having Democrat candidate Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican candidate Mike Rogers in the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan.

Wedgewood Polling conducted a single legitimate poll, in Nebraska, that served as a baseline to compare against fake data.

Wedgewood Polling said it did not intend to mislead the public or sway an election, and that the purpose was to spark changes in the polling and media industries.

Decision Desk HQ said on X on Wednesday that it removed 17 polls from Wedgewood Polling in light of the company's admission.

"As polling and averages are a component of our forecast model, we have rerun the model and all of our forecasts now reflect the removal of the fraudulent data," Decision Desk said. "The removal of these polls has not changed the projected seat totals or chamber control probabilities in the Senate or House."

Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, another poll aggregator, said on X on Tuesday that he contacted Wedgewood Polling's head pollster after the company first appeared, and that the individual said he was a college student who had experience in the polling space. The conversation led to VoteHub including polls from the company on its website.

"A few years ago, I was a college student following politics as a hobby myself, so I try to give people in that position the benefit of the doubt," Donnini said. "It's disappointing to see how this has unfolded, because it's going to be a ... lot harder for the next college kid who's actually well-intentioned and super into politics to break into the space after this."

FiftyPlusOne, which had also included Wedgewood Polling surveys, said on Tuesday that it had sent questions about the polls to the company prior to the admission that most of its polls were fake. It said the questions prompted the disclosure.

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