Jet-Fuel Price Shock Hits Airlines As Raymond James Cuts Estimate Across Coverage, Warns Of JetBlue Bankruptcy Risk

As we've told readers, and as former Goldman commodities guru Jeff Currie explained last week, the energy crisis is not necessarily in Brent or WTI supplies, but in refined-product markets, given the diesel crack spread's jump above $100 a barrel last week. Early Monday, the spread was trading around $94.

The secondary effects of a global refined-products crisis are beginning to hit airline earnings, according to Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth, who wrote in a note Monday morning that she is cutting estimates across her airline coverage universe as jet-fuel prices surge.

US Gulf Coast jet fuel prices have soared 39% quarter-to-date through Aug. 19, outpacing gains of 26% in Brent and 21% in WTI. The divergence reflects yet another rising cost for airlines already confronting higher labor costs, aircraft shortages, and operational disruptions.

"We are lowering estimates across our airline coverage universe primarily to reflect a higher jet fuel price forecast (2H26E/2027E/2028E increased by ~18%/14%/7%), partly offset at non-U.S. airlines by the somewhat weaker U.S. dollar against local currencies," Syth told clients.

She added, "We are also upgrading ALGT from Outperform to Strong Buy following the greater QTD pullback in shares (Exhibit 11) despite a constructive backdrop (ex-fuel), including Allegiant's idiosyncratic margin recovery levers, flexible capacity model, and now-enhanced scale following the Sun Country acquisition. Our ratings and revised target prices are summarized in Exhibit 1, while select KPIs and estimates are shown in Exhibits 8-10."

Syth's revised third- and fourth-quarter earnings estimates are now below Wall Street consensus for most major carriers. Her 2026 forecasts include a 51-cent loss for American Airlines, a $2.43 loss for JetBlue, and earnings of $5.75 for Delta, all below consensus.

So far, passenger demand remains robust despite higher fares this summer, but the latest data from the Transportation Security Administration shows early signs of weakening in late summer. 

TSA throughput data is down about 2.6% from a year earlier this quarter, compared with a 1.1% decline in scheduled seats.

JetBlue appears to be the weakest airline in her coverage. She maintained an Underperform rating, warning that a Chapter 11 restructuring may be the "more prudent" way to address the carrier's overleveraged balance sheet.

S&P 500 Airlines Index vs. Jet-Fuel Prices

The takeaway is that the refined-products crisis, which has pushed jet-fuel and diesel prices sky-high, will begin to weigh on airlines again just as demand weakens heading into the end of summer.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 12:00
https://ift.tt/X2D1Wik
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/X2D1Wik
via IFTTT

Jet-Fuel Price Shock Hits Airlines As Raymond James Cuts Estimate Across Coverage, Warns Of JetBlue Bankruptcy Risk

Houthis Attack Saudi Oil Tanker In Red Sea, As Bab el-Mandeb Transit Is Up Slightly

Yemen's Houthis on Monday targeted the Saudi oil tanker Amzan in the Red Sea off Yanbu with a ballistic missile and drones, the Iran-aligned militant group announced.

Soon after initial reports emerged, Saudi Arabia confirmed the attack, with Saudi shipping company Bahri stating that its Amzan vessel was involved in a hostile incident in regional waters.

Yahya Saree, the military spokesman for the Houthi rebels in Yemen, described that the attacks were carried out using ballistic missiles and drones and were executed as part of the implementation of the 'siege for siege' operation targeting the Saudis.

The Houthis are also claiming fresh attacks on Saudi military convoys carrying military equipment to Yemeni government forces. This is after pledging to hit Saudi troop concentrations and weapons depots anywhere they are found in the region. Details are as follows:

In another development, the Yemeni Armed Forces, by the grace of Allah, successfully carried out two military operations of which the first targeted a Saudi military convoy, consisting of a large convoy loaded with military equipment, in the Al-Abr and Al-Wadi'ah areas using ballistic missiles and drones, resulting in the burning and destruction of more than ten trucks loaded with weapons that were coming from Saudi territory to target the Yemeni people.

The second operation targeted Saudi enemy forces in the Al-Kanais area with ballistic missiles and drones, which resulted in the death and injury of dozens, including commanders and officers, and the burning and destruction of several weapons depots.

Starting last week, the Houthis laid out three objectives they seek to impose on the Saudis:

• The first was described as “siege for siege,” referring to Ansarallah’s declared naval restrictions against Saudi shipping.
• The second involved “striking Saudi troop buildups wherever they are,” while the third centered on “protecting Yemen’s sovereignty and confronting any enemy incursions.”
• Ansarallah stated that its naval measures had imposed a tight blockade on Saudi interests, asserting that “not a single ship can pass through.”

Already, Aramco facilities have been targeted at least four times over the past weeks, since the Saudi-Houthi conflict erupted again. Iran has of late been much more open in boasting that its Yemeni ally is doing damage on US allies in the region. 

For example, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebbi recently told the semiofficial Mehr News Agency this week that the kingdom cannot defeat the group. 

"How can Saudi Arabia, whose military capability is less than that of the Zionist regime, be able to cope with Ansar Allah and the Yemeni fighters? This is not possible," he said.

Like the Iranians, the Houthis have some natural leverage given the geography of oil transit chokepoints. Al Monitor also observed this month: "Traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, may be on the rebound despite the Houthi blockade... Around 50 ships typically crossed before the recent escalation. 

Chokepoint traffic holds, risks shift#MarineTraffic data show vessel traffic remained active through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb last week, although headline volumes mask significant changes in the underlying mix. Hormuz recorded 121 crossings, up 2.5% from 118. Laden crossings… pic.twitter.com/mNFRBiW4tW

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) August 24, 2026

It noted further, "Saudi Arabia has been rerouting oil exports through the Red Sea in response to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz."

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/24/2026 - 11:20
https://ift.tt/hTYI9SW
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/hTYI9SW
via IFTTT

Houthis Attack Saudi Oil Tanker In Red Sea, As Bab el-Mandeb Transit Is Up Slightly

Elon Musk's Huge Midterm Investment Widens GOP's Money Advantage

Republicans already have a significant financial advantage heading into the 2026 midterm elections, but Elon Musk is preparing to spend up to $200 million to give them an even bigger boost. Wired reports that officials with knowledge of Musk's plans said the range could still change, and that he intends to direct much of that money toward voter-turnout operations in the cycle's most competitive races, with the Texas Senate contest emerging as a likely landing spot.

The Texas Senate race between Republican nominee Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico gives Musk a lopsided fundraising contest, though polling suggests the race is closer than Republicans should be comfortable with. Talarico has raised $68.6 million through June 30, mostly from out of state, more than seven times what Paxton has brought in, and he closed the month with $21.5 million in cash on hand against $1.8 million for Paxton, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

The polling numbers complicate that picture. An Emerson College poll from Aug. 9-10 showed Paxton leading Talarico 47% to 46% among likely voters, and eight nonpartisan public polls since the Republican runoff have shown the race hovering around a dead heat.

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, said Musk's money could help Paxton close some of that financial gap if it goes toward a disciplined get-out-the-vote operation rather than television ads alone. He also flagged competitive Senate races in Georgia, Ohio and Maine as likely destinations for Musk's spending beyond Texas.

"It's a considerable sum that has the potential to shake things up in certain races across the country," Panagopoulos told The New York Post.

Musk's expected 2026 outlay would extend a pattern he set in 2024, when he spent at least $288 million helping Donald Trump and other Republicans win office. Most of that money ran through his super PAC, America PAC, which took in $239 million by early December along with another $11.2 million in in-kind petition-incentive spending, and which paid third-party canvassing firms more than $46 million across the battleground states. Trump carried all six of those states, though his own campaign officials were not convinced the paid canvassing operation deserved credit over Trump's own appeal to voters.

He kept writing checks after the election. Musk gave more than $73 million to Republican causes in 2025, including roughly $45 million to America PAC and three separate $5 million contributions on June 27 to MAGA Inc., the Congressional Leadership Fund and the Senate Leadership Fund. This year he opened with a $10 million contribution in January to Fight for Kentucky, the group that backed GOP Senate candidate Nate Morris before he suspended his campaign in May, and America PAC has attributed at least $1.6 million more to him through March 31.

Panagopoulos expects Democrats to answer Musk's spending in some form. "This is not going to happen in a vacuum," he said. "Democrats will respond, and even if they can't find someone with pockets as deep as this, there are other ways to raise funds to combat what might be happening on the Republican side."

However, money has been the one thing Democrats have struggled with this year. The Republican National Committee entered the stretch run of the midterms with $128 million in the bank. The Democratic National Committee, however, has a roughly $2 million net deficit.

Politico reported in July that the three main GOP party committees and their two caucus-aligned super PACs held a combined $657 million in cash at the end of June, nearly double the $334 million their Democratic counterparts held, and that tally does not include MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC that reported more than $400 million in the bank a few weeks earlier. Democrats have no comparable vehicle. Add Trump's super PAC to the party committees and caucus-aligned groups, Politico found, and Republicans control more than three times the money Democrats have across their equivalent organizations.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee holds $55.9 million to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's $41 million, and the National Republican Congressional Committee holds $92.7 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's $79 million.

Of course, money alone rarely settles an election. In Florida this past week, Democratic socialist Angie Nixon defeated former National Security Council aide Alex Vindman in the Florida Democratic Senate primary, despite Vindman raising $16 million compared to Nixon's $975,000.

But having money helps and can be critical in competitive races. Heading into the final stretch of the 2026 cycle, the GOP is running with a financial structure Democrats do not have, and Musk's expected investment will widen that advantage further.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/23/2026 - 18:05
https://ift.tt/FxjJNeo
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/FxjJNeo
via IFTTT

Elon Musk's Huge Midterm Investment Widens GOP's Money Advantage

Trump Accuses BBC Of Turning Defamation Case Into 'Jan 6' Investigation

Authored by Tom Gantert via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump is asking a federal judge to reject the BBC's attempt to subpoena three members of his family as part of discovery in his defamation lawsuit against the British broadcaster.

Trump's attorneys filed a memorandum Aug. 21 opposing the BBC's request for permission to use alternative methods to serve subpoenas on Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Jared Kushner.

Trump's lawyers accused the BBC of attempting to transform what they described as a narrow defamation case into a broad investigation of the events surrounding Jan. 6, 2021.

The lawsuit concerns a BBC documentary in which the BBC spliced together portions of the president's Jan. 6 speech, delivered nearly 55 minutes apart, while omitting his statement that supporters should march "peacefully and patriotically" to the U.S. Capitol.

The BBC apologized for the editing but said it was an unintentional error and does not meet the legal threshold for defamation.

Trump's filing says the BBC chairman acknowledged that the editing created a "mistaken impression."

According to Trump's attorneys, the BBC sought 126 document requests and approximately 150 requests for admission from Trump, and issued subpoenas to 47 family members, former officials, political associates, and federal agencies.

The court ruled Aug. 6 that the lawsuit did not permit the BBC to "relitigate and discover every aspect" of Jan. 6 or seek discovery from "any and all individuals" with knowledge of the events. The judge directed the parties to conduct a meaningful conference to resolve remaining discovery disputes.

Trump's attorneys argue the BBC filed its latest motion eight days later, without following that process.

They also contend the BBC is seeking authorization to serve subpoenas that have not been presented to the court. The filing says the BBC has not submitted revised document subpoenas or proposed deposition subpoenas detailing what the three family members would be required to provide or testify about.

Trump's attorneys also argued that additional depositions would be redundant because all three were previously interviewed by the House committee investigating Jan. 6. Those interviews totaled 585 pages and addressed subjects the BBC says it wants to explore, according to the filing.

The filing particularly challenges the effort to depose Kushner, saying that he was outside the country during Trump's speech and the subsequent riot at the U.S. Capitol.

Trump's attorneys asked the court to deny the BBC's motion, arguing the broadcaster has failed to justify its proposed ways to deliver the subpoenas and failed to comply with the court's Aug. 6 discovery order.

The BBC declined to comment in response to an email from The Epoch Times seeking comment.

Tyler Durden Sun, 08/23/2026 - 16:20
https://ift.tt/VQG03ba
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/VQG03ba
via IFTTT

Trump Accuses BBC Of Turning Defamation Case Into 'Jan 6' Investigation

Portable 1MW Kaleidos Microreactor Secures Critical Nuclear Fuel Deal Through 2030s

Authored by Aamir Khollam via Interesting Engineering,

Radiant has secured a long-term source of nuclear fuel for its Kaleidos microreactor, removing a potential supply hurdle as the company prepares the system for deployment.

Kaleidos transportable nuclear reactor delivery.Radiant Nuclear

Standard Nuclear will fabricate TRISO fuel for Radiant under an agreement covering planned Kaleidos deployments through the early 2030s. The deal gives the reactor developer a dedicated fuel supplier as its program moves toward full-scale testing and production.

Fuel availability remains a critical challenge for advanced nuclear developers. A reactor cannot reach customers without a reliable source of qualified fuel. Radiant is betting that greater control over its supply chain will help avoid that problem.

Fuel supply secured

Standard Nuclear will produce fuel specifically for the Kaleidos reactor. TRISO fuel consists of uranium particles protected by several layers of ceramic and carbon materials. Advanced reactor developers have adopted the technology for its ability to contain radioactive materials within each fuel particle.

Kaleidos is a 1-megawatt microreactor designed for transport to customer sites. Each unit can operate for up to five years before refueling.

Tori Shivanandan, Radiant's president and COO, said securing fuel represents an important step toward larger-scale deployment. "Securing the fuel supply chain is a strategic advantage to deploying at scale," she said.

Radiant also plans to control the reactor's broader fuel cycle. Customers would not handle fresh or spent fuel at their locations. The company instead plans to manage fueling, refueling, and storage through its own facilities.

Reactor testing advances

Kaleidos is now undergoing full-scale testing at Idaho National Laboratory's DOME facility. The Department of Energy selected Radiant through a competitive process and granted it exclusive access to the facility for one year.

Engineers will test the reactor at full scale and full power during extended runs. The campaign will use the same reactor design and fuel specifications intended for customer deployments.

Full-scale testing could reveal engineering challenges that smaller demonstrations cannot easily expose. Radiant says crews can transport Kaleidos by land, sea, or air. The reactor has a planned operating life of 20 years.

A 300,000-square-foot facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, will support the company's manufacturing and fuel operations. The site will handle reactor production, fueling, and fuel storage as Radiant prepares for larger deployments.

Customers already waiting

Equinix has signed a commercial agreement for 20 Kaleidos units. The deal gives Radiant an early commercial pathway for its microreactor.

The company has also secured a project with the Department of the Air Force and the Defense Innovation Unit. Radiant will develop and operate a microreactor at Buckley Space Force Base under that effort. Those projects give Kaleidos potential applications across commercial infrastructure and U.S. defense facilities.

Radiant still needs to complete testing, establish repeatable manufacturing, and navigate regulatory requirements before widespread deployment can begin. The Standard Nuclear agreement resolves an important piece of that puzzle.

Radiant now has a committed fuel fabrication partner as it works to move Kaleidos from testing into production and eventual operation.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/22/2026 - 15:10
https://ift.tt/RfC0pza
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/RfC0pza
via IFTTT

Portable 1MW Kaleidos Microreactor Secures Critical Nuclear Fuel Deal Through 2030s