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Multiple Polls Show Warning Signs For Democrats In Upcoming Midterms

Democrats have spent months telling anyone who will listen that the midterms are theirs to lose. With President Donald Trump's approval rating in the basement and conditions supposedly ripe for a blue wave, the party is feeling confident it can win both the House and the Senate in November. Polls do seem to suggest they have momentum, but a closer look at the numbers tells a very different story, and the wave that Democrats are banking on may not be coming after all.

The latest NBC News poll does show Democrats with a lead in the national congressional race. On the surface, that sounds like good news for the party. But CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten put that lead in context, and the context is the problem.

"Democrats have an edge, but compared to what we see historically, it's really not that big of a lead," Enten said.

The NBC poll puts Democrats up by five points in the national congressional vote. Five points may sound meaningful until you stack them against what those numbers looked like in actual wave years. In 2018, when Democrats flipped the House, they led by ten points at this stage. In 2006, another Democrat wave year, the lead sat at 11 points.

"It's this type of lead where you say, you know what, Democrats are ahead, but don't count your chickens just quite yet," Enten said.

And this is not a one-poll problem. Enten pointed to a pattern emerging across multiple pollsters, including NBC, Marquette University Law School, and Ipsos. All three tracked the Democrat lead from January and February into May and June, and none of them shows momentum building. NBC dropped a point. Marquette University Law School dropped three points. Ipsos held roughly flat.

"There is this group of pollsters that are out there that are just not showing the wave you might expect, given where the president's approval rating is," Enten said. "The Democrats hold these leads. But again, you have this group of pollsters that are out there where this lead, simply put, is not matching what you might expect if you were expecting a Democratic wave."

The redistricting wars did not help Democrats at all. Republicans are locked in structural advantages through the redistricting process, which means a five-point national lead may not translate into actually flipping the House.

"Democrats need between a three and four point advantage in the national vote," he said. "You average those polls together. It's right on the border. It is no guarantee. It is far from a guarantee at this point if you believe these pollsters."

That is not exactly the kind of language that inspires confidence in a Democrat war room. And then there are the prediction markets. The Kalshi prediction market gives Democrats a 78% chance of winning the House. That sounds strong, but it also means Republicans have a better-than-one-in-five shot at holding on. In the Senate, the GOP still holds the edge.

"Democrats probably take back the House, but it's far from a guarantee," Enten said. "We are not going to get caught, like in past years. We ignore those polls that had those warning signs."

Political analysts burned themselves in past cycles by dismissing data that did not fit the expected narrative. The warning signs were there, and they got ignored. Enten is clearly trying not to repeat that mistake, and the data he is looking at right now says the same thing it has been saying for months: this is not shaping up to be the blowout Democrats want... or need.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 16:40
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US Company Gets Approval To Build The World's First Fusion Power Plant In Washington

Authored by Ameya Paleja via Interesting Engineering,

US-based fusion energy company Helion has received the regulatory clearances to build the world's first fusion energy power plant. The company has received a Radioactive Materials License (RML) and a Radioactive Air Emissions License (RAEL) from the Washington Department of Health (DOH), clearing the way to begin construction of the generator building at the power plant site.

Helion's Orion reactor is set to be the world's first fusion power plant.Helion Energy

As the world looks for newer ways to meet it energy demands without emitting carbon, fusion energy seems to be the most likely option. Using the chemical reaction that occurs on the Sun, fusion energy can potentially generate large amounts of energy from simpler atoms like hydrogen and its isotopes.

Unlike its counterpart, nuclear fission, fusion energy does not produce large amounts of radioactive waste that need to be stored safely. Moreover, unlike renewables like wind and solar, fusion energy plants can work on demand, meeting energy requirements as they arise, without the investments required in energy storage too.

Commercializing Nuclear Fusion

For all its benefits, nuclear fusion is still not a commercially available technology because the fusion reactors have not been able to generate more energy than they consume. Washington-state-based Helion Energy, though, is confident that it can achieve this fairly soon.

While it has not yet published any peer-reviewed papers demonstrating how its fusion reactor works, the company is proceeding to build a fusion reactor that it will deploy commercially. It also has an agreement in place with Microsoft to supply 50 MW of power to a data center from its fusion reactor by 2028.

The facility dubbed Orion is under construction in Malaga, Washington state and recently became the first such facility in the world to secure regulatory licenses to construct the nuclear plant. So far, the assembly and office building of the plant were completed but the recent grant of licenses from the DOH allows Helion to begin constructing the reactor as well.

Why Is NRC Not Involved?

As a nuclear energy company, Helion should ideally be seeking approval from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). However, the NRC regulates nuclear fusion under the byproduct material framework, putting it in the same category for approvals as particle accelerators and hospitals, instead of nuclear reactors.

This is not just a distinction made by the NRC but one also ratified by the US Congress in the ADVANCE Act of 2024, and it shows that nuclear fusion has a very different safety profile from fission and hence its path to deployment is also different.

The issuance of the RML and RAEL licenses by the Washington DOH is a major milestone for Helion as it confirms that it has facilities, personnel, and safety programs that meet the safety standards for a fusion facility at the Malaga site.

"We are extremely proud to be granted these licenses from the Washington DOH, making us the first company in the world with the regulatory approvals in place for fusion power plant operations," said David Kirtley, CEO of Helion Energy, in a press release shared with Interesting Engineering.

"We have a long history of working with the DOH to license our previous fusion activities. Today's announcement represents the rigor of that work and opens the door for practical, commercial, safe fusion power."

In addition to the approvals needed to build its reactor, Helion has also secured a transmission interconnection agreement with Chelan County Public Utility District that will enable energy generated from its fusion power plant to be supplied to the grid, a global first as well.

The question now is whether Helion will be able to meet its deadline to power Microsoft's data center by 2028 from its fusion power plant.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/18/2026 - 15:25
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Of The Elite, By The Elite, For The Elite

Authored by John C. Eastman via The American Mind,

For generations, Democrats have portrayed themselves as the party of ordinary Americans - factory workers, waitresses, truck drivers, police officers, construction workers, and middle-class families trying to get ahead. Yet one of the most striking features of modern American politics is how often Democrat leaders, activists, and media allies seem genuinely baffled by the very people they claim to represent.

The latest example comes from Washington Post columnist Monica Hesse, whose reaction to President Trump’s appearance at a packed UFC event on the White House lawn last weekend revealed a familiar pattern among America’s cultural elites. To tens of millions of Americans, UFC is simply entertainment. It is competitive, exciting, patriotic, and increasingly mainstream.

To Hesse and myriad other journalists and political commentators, however, its popularity seems to require explanation - as though they are studying the customs of a distant tribe.

That reaction says far more about elite America than it does about UFC fans, and few institutions better embody elite opinion than the modern Democrat Party.

The inability to understand ordinary Americans has become a recurring problem for Democrats. Consider one of the most famous campaign images in modern history. In 1988, Democrat presidential nominee Michael Dukakis climbed into a tank in an effort to project foreign policy credibility. Though the campaign intended the image to demonstrate Dukakis’s strength and command in order to reassure wary voters, the photograph instead became a political disaster.

To many Americans, Dukakis did not look like a commander-in-chief - he looked like Alfred E. Neuman from MAD magazine, wearing an oversized helmet and generally appearing out of his element. The embarrassing image became iconic because it captured something larger than a single campaign mistake: a cohort of American elites - consultants, strategists, and media professionals - who apparently thought the photo was a good idea.

The same kind of blindness occasionally appears among establishment Republicans as well. George H.W. Bush’s comments upon seeing a new and improved grocery store scanner became a symbol - fairly or unfairly - of a politician disconnected from everyday life. But while both parties have produced elite figures detached from ordinary concerns, the problem is far more pronounced today on the Left.

Indeed, many of the institutions that now shape Democrat politics are populated almost exclusively by people who live, work, and socialize within a remarkably narrow slice of America. They attend the same universities, read the same publications, and live in the same metropolitan areas. They follow the same social-media accounts. Their children attend the same schools, and their friends share the same political and cultural assumptions.

And increasingly, they seem unable to comprehend how other Americans think.

When Hillary Clinton dismissed millions of voters as a “basket of deplorables,” many Americans viewed the comment not as a gaffe but as a rare moment of honesty. It reflected a prevailing attitude among Democrats, and elites more broadly, that disagreement could be explained only by ignorance, prejudice, or moral deficiency.

President Biden repeatedly displayed a similar tendency. During the 2024 campaign (before he was ousted), he and his allies often portrayed concerns about illegal immigration, inflation, crime, and cultural change as either exaggerated or illegitimate, even as polling showed those issues dominating voters’ concerns. Time and again, Democrat leaders appeared surprised that Americans cared more about grocery prices and border security than about the priorities emphasized by elite institutions.

Vice President Kamala Harris often suffered from the same disconnect. Her public appearances frequently projected the impression that she was speaking to an audience of policy experts rather than to working Americans -when she was not donning fake accents, that is. Her campaign’s struggles were not merely ideological; they were cultural. Many voters simply concluded that she did not understand their lives.

The pattern extends well beyond politicians.

Millions of Americans attend NASCAR races, pack country music concerts, and watch UFC fights. Elite commentators scoff and express bewilderment in response. Millions more display American flags, fill church pews, and worry about rising crime and open borders. Too often, the response from elite circles is not curiosity but contempt.

The Democrat Party once excelled at connecting with ordinary Americans precisely because it better understood their views. Franklin Roosevelt, known as a “traitor to his class,” spoke the language of workers because he wanted them to be part of the Democrats’ coalition for generations. Harry Truman connected with voters because he shared many of their instincts. Even Bill Clinton possessed an intuitive feel for middle-class anxieties and aspirations.

Today’s Democrat coalition increasingly draws its leadership from elite universities, media organizations, nonprofits, foundations, government bureaucracies, and professional-class enclaves. These institutions exercise enormous cultural influence, but they are not representative of America as a whole.

As a result, Democrats increasingly mistake the views traded in faculty lounges, newsroom editorial meetings, and Washington policy conferences for the views held around kitchen tables. That confusion helps explain their shock at one political surprise after another, especially Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024.

Democrat strategists express astonishment after yet another batch of election results defies their expectations. Panels of “experts” search for explanations, and reports are circulated that blame political circumstances or voters’ various “isms.” But the possibility that the Democrats have lost touch with ordinary Americans is rarely, if ever, considered.

A political movement cannot represent people it does not understand. And it cannot understand the views of many Americans, whom it increasingly views with a mixture of confusion, suspicion, and disdain. For a party that still considers itself the party of the people, that is a major problem it has yet to reckon with.

And it is also a problem for America as a whole. A healthy republic depends on officeholders who can understand - and respect - the culture and traditions of their fellow citizens, even when they do not share them. When America’s governing and cultural elites lose the ability to see the nation as it actually is, they make poorer decisions, deepen political divisions, and erode the mutual trust on which self-government depends.

A republic cannot long endure if those who wield influence come to view ordinary Americans not as fellow citizens to be understood but as strangers to be belittled and ignored.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 16:20
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"By Any Means Necessary": Candidate Struck From Alaska Ballot Over Alleged Democratic Dirty Trick

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There is an interesting controversy in Alaska where an election official just disqualified a candidate over his name. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is in what is considered a close race with Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola. The seat is viewed as critical to the Democrats' retaking power. The race was thrown into disarray when a retired teacher named Dan Sullivan, who had no connection to the GOP but did have connections to Democratic operatives, got on the ballot.

The alleged dirty trick by Democratic and Peltola supporters would have split Sullivan's vote through sheer confusion. Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher disqualified Dan J. Sullivan, putting an end to it this week.

The suspected dirty trick comes at a time when Democratic candidates and pundits are calling for winning back power "by any means necessary."

It could create an interesting appeal if teacher Sullivan claims that this is just a colossal coincidence or that he has a right to be a vehicle for electoral confusion.

This is an old trick employed by other Democratic candidates in history, including J.F. Kennedy. In Kennedy's first run for Congress in 1946 in Boston, he was up against Boston City Councilor Joe Russo in the primary. The district was heavily Irish and Italian. Kennedy's father, Joe, allegedly paid another Joseph Russo, a custodian, to run to divide the Italian vote through confusion.

In 2000, Republicans faced similar allegations when the House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt found himself running against Richard A. Gebhardt.

Beecher concluded that Dan J. Sullivan and the Democrats were engaged in the same dirty trick to try to seize the seat. In a letter this week, she concluded that the teacher's candidacy was "filed with a purpose to confuse or mislead and to thereby compromise the ballot's fairness or neutrality," in a letter published Monday.

Under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, Dan J. Sullivan could have advanced to the general election among the top four vote-getters - rigging the result for Peltola.

Beecher noted several indicators that teacher Sullivan and the Democrats were engaged in a dishonest campaign of confusion. She noted that he voted under the name Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr., but requested to appear on the ballot as Dan Sullivan - making him identical to the incumbent. He even tried to register using the initial "S" once, which would have matched the senator.

She also noted that Dan J. Sullivan had not registered as a Republican before launching his Senate campaign and that he created a new website that used a "color scheme and overall theme" similar to the incumbent's campaign materials.

She also noted his connection to Amber Lee, an Alaska Democratic consultant and past supporter of Peltola.

If true, it is a disgraceful role played by this retired teacher and Democratic operatives. While claiming to be defending democracy, Democratic activists and leaders often use the most anti-democratic measures of ballot cleansing or, in this case, ballot confusion.

The question is the role of Peltola, the DNC, and the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee in encouraging this dirty trick in Alaska. That would require an inquisitive, independent national media.

Once again, from Alaska to Maine, Democrats may have to ask, "Are we the baddies?"

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 17:00
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Is California Reaching Critical Mass?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

By any measure, California is a failed state—and a national embarrassment.

  • Taxes? It has the highest income and gas taxes in the nation.

  • Roads? A Reason Foundation survey ranks it 49th among the states.

  • Mass flight? Between 250,000 and 350,000 more Californians leave the state than move in each year. Housing, gas, insurance, and electricity prices? The highest in the continental U.S.

  • Illegal aliens, the poor, the homeless, the foreign-born, and welfare recipients? The largest numbers in the U.S.

  • Public K–12 schools? Test scores in the bottom quartile.

  • Poverty? Twenty percent live below the poverty line.

So, what happened to the nation’s most richly naturally endowed—and once best governed—state?

The Left took total control—after millions of the embattled middle class fled.

Millions more impoverished immigrants, legal and illegal, took their place.

Left-wing Silicon Valley spawned some of the wealthiest elite liberal enclaves in the world.

The result was a neo-feudal society that was hardly democratic.

Millions of subsidized poor compose the bottom.

A beleaguered middle continues to shrink.

An ultra-rich apparat of left-wing coastal professionals and investors rules from the top.

As upper-bracket taxpayers fled, taxes rose on those who remained to fund expanding entitlements for newly arrived poor would-be residents. In turn, even more of the middle class left.

The remaining pyramidal economic structure ensured a Democratic monopoly—further entrenched by changing balloting laws, gerrymandering voting districts, vote harvesting, fueling public employee unions, and ignoring or undermining popular referenda.

In 2014, Californians voted for Proposition 1, a $7.5 billion water bond designed to solve the state’s chronic water storage deficit.

Included was $2.7 billion specifically designated for new reservoirs, as the last major reservoir had been built in 1980, when California had roughly half its current population.

Despite the people’s vote, bureaucracies, elected officials, and green activists blocked all new reservoir construction.

Adding insult to injury, Governor Gavin Newsom instead used $250 million from the Proposition 1 fund to blow up four dams on the Klamath River. They had once provided storage, electrical generation, recreation, and flood control.

Californians have twice voted in referenda (for Proposition 209 and against Proposition 16) to bar the use of racial preferences for contracting, admissions, and promotion in public institutions.

Most public universities simply ignored the law. They continued their “diversity” quotas under new names, relying on left-wing elected officials and judges to ignore again the will of the people.

Preferential admissions, along with racially segregated dorms and graduation ceremonies, continued under euphemisms and denials. “Theme” houses, “affinity” graduations, and “safe spaces” practice “affirmative” discrimination.

California voters in 2008 passed Proposition 11 to stop political gerrymandering by creating a supposedly nonpartisan state redistricting commission of five Democrats, five Republicans, and four Independents. Two years later, the commission took over redrawing congressional districts as well.

But Democratic lobbyists and lawyers sabotaged the goal of disinterested redistricting according to population and geography. Instead, racial preferences and the interests of the Democratic majority of incumbents prevailed to warp the intent of the voters.

Although Republicans usually achieved nearly 40 percent of the California vote in national elections, two decades later there were only seven Republicans in the 52-person congressional delegation, or a mere 13 percent of the state’s representatives.

But even that tiny contingent was considered too generous by the Left. Thus, in 2026, it will likely be further redistricted down to four or five seats.

The balloting mess in the recent Los Angeles mayoral race further reminds the nation and the world just how dysfunctional and anti-democratic California has become.

Democrats warp elections without the need for the old Chicago way of outright ballot theft or destruction. Instead, they do so in a “legal” manner by passing insane laws that ensure fraud and Democratic victories.

The winners in the strange jungle primaries—usually both Democrats—were not announced until a week after the polls closed. One of the eventual winners in mayoral race, the socialist Nithya Raman, had already given her teary concession speech after coming in well back at third on election night.

The Republican Spencer Pratt was comfortably ahead of her in second place on Election Day—only to lose, as expected, when large numbers of late ballots that broke roughly 90 percent Democratic were counted.

Remember, every registered voter is sent a mail-in ballot. If it is postmarked on election day, it can arrive at vote centers up to seven days after the election.

No one really knows whether the ballots are mailed to the dead, to former or nonexistent addresses, or to legally eligible voters—by design. In 2024, when losing presidential candidate Kamala Harris won the state by 20 points, only 0.09 percent of all ballots cast were rejected.

Anyone can register and receive a provisional ballot on the same day.

Ballot harvesting and ballot curing are legal.

Campaign operatives can round up voters, gather their ballots, and deliver them en masse to a voting center.

They can register anyone to vote, provide a ballot, and then deposit it immediately afterwards.

There is no requirement to provide proof of U.S. citizenship to get a driver’s license. Yet a license is not even needed to register.

Any credit card without a picture suffices.

And it gets worse still.

If the potential voter has no license, no Social Security number, no proof of U.S. citizenship, and no credit cards, he still will be registered—once harvesters provide him with a “unique identifier” number.

He can then vote that very day without any ID at all.

If, in California, you claim you are illiterate and cannot write your name—no problem.

You simply make a mark—anything from an X to a happy face. No one asks whether an illiterate can read the names on the ballot.

Then your handler serves as a “witness” and signs his name. Such witnesses are almost always vote harvesters, and they can sign as many ballots as they wish.

If all that doesn’t work, ballot “curers” can be called in help remedy rejected partisan ballots post facto.

Democrats now rely on the system to ensure supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, no statewide Republican officeholders, a tiny vestigial Republican congressional contingent, and almost exclusively Democratic-appointed liberal judges.

The more Democrats control the state, the more socialist, anti-democratic—and autocratic—California becomes.

Their gift to the nation is a third-world failed state, now in danger of societal collapse.

  • Fires rage—given ideologically driven prohibitions on brush and forest management, cuts in fire departments, and sheer bureaucratic incompetence.

  • Multibillion-dollar boondoggle rail projects rust.

  • Billions of welfare dollars are stolen with impunity. Illegal aliens who cannot speak or read English are given passes to obtain commercial trucking licenses—as if California’s critical road signs are written in some language other than English.

  • A quarter of residents can’t pay their sky-high power bills on time—and correctly assume that the state and the utility companies will mostly foot their delinquent bills.

  • Since 2020, over 100,000 criminals have been released early from state prisons—and most have little fear that their present and future crimes will earn them another prison sentence.

  • Half the state’s births are paid for through state-supplied welfare coverage.

  • And now the homeless without addresses or IDs can determine elections.

In sum, import poverty; romanticize illegal immigration; demonize the middle class; drive out private-sector capital; and exempt elites from the consequences of their own ideology—and you’re left with a state where democracy dies, along with everything else.

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