Japan Prepares To End Quantitative Tightening Amid Bond Market Turmoil

With Japanese bond yields recently hitting record highs and bond market volatility soaring, overnight Reuters floated a trial balloon that Japan's central bank may pause the unwinding of its massive debt holdings next fiscal ​year, which would give Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi some relief amid growing investor concerns about her growing spending plans.

A pause would mark a turning point in the Bank ‌of Japan's quantitative tightening plan - started in 2024 as part of Governor Kazuo Ueda's efforts to unwind a decade-long, massive stimulus which everyone said would result in failure. Well, there it is. The next step, of course, is more QE.

According to Reuters, which is well known for being the mouthpiece of BOJ insiders, at its June 15-16 meeting, the Japanese central bank will review its bond taper plan running through March next year and lay out a new plan for fiscal 2027. With no change expected to the existing taper plan, markets are focusing on whether the BOJ would keep reducing its monthly bond purchases in fiscal 2027 or maintain the current pace.

While ​there is no consensus yet within the BOJ on the final decision, a pause in taper is increasingly seen as the preferred option with uncertainty over the Iran war keeping ​bond markets jittery, said two sources familiar with the deliberations.

"Markets remain volatile, so there's no need to rush," one of them said on the BOJ's ⁠taper, adding that many market players appeared to favor maintaining the current pace of buying. Ironically, the market volatility is precisely the reason to rush. 

Political considerations may also push the BOJ to pause as rising bond yields threaten to confine Takaichi's spending plans. "What the ​administration wants to avoid most is rises in bond yields," said one of the sources. Of course, if the intention is to avoid bond yields from surging, it's far too late.

Japan's 20Y bond yield rises as high as 3.511%, highest since 1996 as global interest rates go vertical pic.twitter.com/Rc1gKjfGyo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2026

Confirming the end of the QT is effectively a done deal, some investors are now calling on the BOJ to pause its bond taper plan, a central bank survey ​earlier this month showed, highlighting the challenge it faces in reducing its massive Japanese government bonds (JGB) holdings. 

Even before the Reuters report, there had already been some indications the BOJ might consider slowing its taper plan amid market uncertainty. A clearer signal on the BOJ's taper plan will come next week, when the central bank releases minutes of its meeting with bond market participants held on May 21-22.

"We've seen a pretty fast rise in bond yields, which makes it hard for investors to buy ​bonds. The finance ministry may be getting worried too," said former BOJ official Nobuyasu Atago. "Given the political headwinds, I see no reason for the BOJ to keep tapering next fiscal year," he said.

Concerns ​over Japan's worsening finances and rising inflation pushed up the 10-year JGB yield to a 30-year high of 2.8% last week, nearing the 3% estimate the finance ministry set in compiling its fiscal 2026 budget. A rise ‌above 3% ⁠would boost debt servicing costs and reduce scope for other spending.

The BOJ's rate-hike decision may also affect its taper plan with an increase in short-term rates to 1% from 0.75% seen as a strong possibility at the June meeting. While the central bank has said its taper program has no monetary policy implications, the case for slowing QT becomes stronger if it pushes through a hike, something it has been woefully unable to do so far despite a collapsing yen. 

"With the bond market so unstable, it would be natural for the BOJ to play it safe and avoid causing undue market turbulence," said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities, who projects a taper pause ​in fiscal 2027.

"A combination of a taper pause ​and rate hike would be a good ⁠one," as the former will ease upward pressure on yields, while the latter would alleviate concern the BOJ is behind the curve in addressing inflationary risks, she said.

It's not just Japan: rising debt and volatile yields have heightened challenges for central banks unwinding their balance sheets that ballooned from years of heavy asset ​purchases to reflate their economies. In the US, analysts doubt whether new Fed chief Kevin Warsh can push through his calls for a smaller balance ​sheet as U.S. Treasuries lose ⁠their luster.

The BOJ has also been cautious in its QT program which started in 2024, and under which the central bank gradually reduced purchases and currently trims monthly buying by 200 billion yen each quarter. 

Political hurdles for the BOJ's QT have heightened under Takaichi, who has vowed to cut tax and boost spending by issuing even more debt in the world's most indebted economy. 

Taper or not, a reduction in the BOJ's holdings, currently at around 500 trillion yen, will proceed steadily due ⁠to the runoff ​of maturing JGBs that already shaved 20% off its balance sheet from a peak in late 2023.

That's all the more ​reason for the BOJ to maintain the current pace of buying, said former BOJ executive Akira Otani, currently at Goldman Sachs Japan.

"When inflationary risks from the Middle East conflict and the government's proactive fiscal policy are putting upward pressure ​on bond yields, proceeding with further tapering could cause political friction by pushing up yields," he said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 17:20
https://ift.tt/H65vI0R
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/H65vI0R
via IFTTT

Japan Prepares To End Quantitative Tightening Amid Bond Market Turmoil

One In Three American Men No Longer Working

Via American Greatness,

The number of American men participating in the workforce has fallen to one of its lowest levels in nearly two decades, according to new federal labor statistics.

Just 66 percent of men age 20 and older were employed or actively seeking work as of April, according to data released earlier this month by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. That figure has dropped sharply from 73 percent in 2006 and now sits near levels last seen during the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis.

The numbers mean roughly one in three American men are no longer in the workforce.

The only modern period with lower participation rates came during the economic devastation caused by the 2020 pandemic, when male workforce participation collapsed to 59 percent.

While employment rates gradually recovered during the years following the Great Recession, those gains were wiped out during the pandemic downturn. Participation rebounded somewhat within two years before beginning another steady decline that has continued into 2026.

The downward trend appears ongoing. Male workforce participation fell another full percentage point in April compared with the same period in 2025, according to Labor Department data.

Several economic shifts are contributing to the decline.

Industries that have traditionally employed large numbers of men including transportation, manufacturing and other labor-intensive sectors, have shed jobs over the past year, according to the Washington Post.

At the same time, growing numbers of retirees and male students have reduced the share of men participating in the labor market.

The labor picture for women has followed a different trajectory.

Female workforce participation also declined during the past two decades, though the swings have been less dramatic. Women saw only a 2-point decline during the 2008 recession, compared with a 5-point drop for men.

Women’s labor force participation has also remained more stable since the pandemic recovery, never falling below 56 percent since 2022.

The economy increasingly appears to favor sectors dominated by female workers. Healthcare and education jobs have grown over the past year, helping women capture nearly all recent job gains.

Of the 369,000 jobs added to the US economy since 2025, 96 perent went to women while just 4 percent went to men, according to the Washington Post.

Despite the shrinking share of men participating in the labor force, male unemployment has remained relatively low, hovering between 3 percent and 4 percent since 2021.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/29/2026 - 16:20
https://ift.tt/KZnNuq8
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/KZnNuq8
via IFTTT

One In Three American Men No Longer Working

Stellar 7 Year Auction Sees 3rd Highest Foreign Award On Record

In the week's final coupon auction, the US Treasury sold $44 billion in 7 Year notes to stellar demand. 

Extending on the strength yesterday's solid (if tailing) 5 Year auction, today's 7 Year sale printed at a high yield of 4.290%, up from 4.175% and the highest since Jan 2025. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.291% by 0.1bps, the first stop through since December 2025.

The bid to cover was 2.518, up from 2.513 and the highest since July 2025; it was obviously higher than the six-auction average of 2.478.

The internals were stellar, with Indirects surging from April's los 58.35% to a stunning 78.39%, the 3rd highest indirect award on record!

Naturally, for Indirects to soar this much, one of the other two categories had to drop, and sure enough Directs plunged from 30.01% to 11.19%, the lowest since December 2024. Dealers were left largely unchanged at 10.42%, down from 11.64%.

Overall, this was a fitting close to a solid week for Treasury auctions, as today's 7Y auction was an absolutely blockbuster, with all metrics stronger but it was the surge in foreign demand that was the showstopper. It appears that EMs are no longer dumping US paper - which they did in record mounts in March and April - to fund oil purchases and to prevent their currencies from crashing. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/28/2026 - 13:22
https://ift.tt/r0GfN4O
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/r0GfN4O
via IFTTT

Stellar 7 Year Auction Sees 3rd Highest Foreign Award On Record

Biden DHS Released Nearly 90% Of Border Migrants Through Parole Program

Via American Greatness,

A new report from the Government Accountability Office found that the Biden administration released nearly 90 percent of migrants encountered at the southern border through parole authority at the height of its catch-and-release policies.

The report details how the Department of Homeland Security under former President Joe Biden and then-DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas dramatically expanded the use of “humanitarian parole” between early 2021 and Jan. 20, 2025.

According to the GAO, parole authority had previously been used sparingly by presidential administrations before Biden took office.

“Specifically, our analysis showed that OFO and Border Patrol granted relatively few paroles during fiscal years 2019 and 2020,” the report stated.

The watchdog agency found that during 2019 and 2020, parole was granted in roughly 3 percent to 28 percent of southwest border encounters. That changed sharply beginning in the summer of 2021.

“The number of paroles granted increased beginning in the summer of 2021 and peaked in December 2022, when 89 percent of encounters resulted in parole,” the report stated.

“Paroles granted declined substantially after December 2022 and again after January 2025.”

The report also raised concerns that the Biden administration’s mass parole program overwhelmed federal immigration enforcement systems and left authorities struggling to track migrants released into the country.

“… without readily accessible information about noncitizens’ parole status, ICE does not have the information it needs to identify and monitor these noncitizens, or to take enforcement action, as appropriate,” the report stated.

Conservatives have argued throughout Biden’s presidency that the administration effectively dismantled immigration enforcement at the southern border by relying heavily on parole authority to release migrants into the interior of the United States.

Some architects of those immigration policies are now pushing Democrats to restore similar programs if the party regains power in Washington.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 15:40
https://ift.tt/VrcUS42
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/VrcUS42
via IFTTT

Biden DHS Released Nearly 90% Of Border Migrants Through Parole Program

Iraq's Oil Collapse Sparks Race For New Export Routes

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

• Iraq's oil production has collapsed to just 1.39 million bpd after the Strait of Hormuz blockade stranded exports.

• Baghdad is urgently trying to revive northern export routes through Turkey, including the Kirkuk-Ceyhan system and a new Kirkuk-Nineveh pipeline.

• China is re-emerging as a major strategic player in Iraq's energy infrastructure, with Chinese firms heavily involved in Baghdad's new north-south pipeline expansion.

April was indeed the cruellest month for decades for Iraq's crude oil production, with an average of 1.389 million barrels per day (bpd) over the period. This compares to a monthly average of 3.47 million bpd from January 2002 to the end of March this year, and an average of over 4.1 million bpd in the three months leading up to the onset of the U.S./Israel-Iran War on 28 February. The last time oil production fell to the current level in the country was in the early 2000s, during and immediately following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Even for a diversified economy, this would spell bad news, but for Iraq, it is existential, with over 90% of its annual budget historically coming from oil and around 95% of that black gold having to pass through the still-blockaded Strait of Hormuz before it is monetised. The effective closure of that key export route meant that Iraq's domestic oil storage tanks quickly filled to maximum capacity, and because it has extremely limited options to transport its crude elsewhere, it has been forced to shut down production wells entirely. As disastrous as it is now, even worse may be to come soon, as these shutdowns can cause permanent damage to wells through a loss of reservoir pressure, water infiltration, and corrosion, among other factors. In Iraq's case, many of its biggest mature southern fields are highly susceptible to these problems. This is why the race has been on in Baghdad to secure other export options, most notably now, pipeline options in the north, but these bring their own sets of problems with them.

Historically, moving oil from the southern part of Iraq administered by the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) in Baghdad was a largely redundant exercise, with little demand for it from Europe that was not already being filled by oil coming from the country's semi-autonomous northern region, presided over by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Instead, the onus of the FGI's export drive was to the East, especially to China - a route involving the Strait of Hormuz. This was also a pivotal means by which sanctioned Iranian crude oil could be surreptitiously transported to the same destination, rebranded as non-sanctioned Iraqi oil, with all elements involved in this mechanism analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Aside from the ongoing conflicts with Washington that this continued practice brought with it for Baghdad, it also meant that the Federal Government could focus on measures aimed at stopping the KRG's oil exports to Europe via a pipeline running into the Turkish port of Ceyhan, thus pressuring its ability to generate financing independent of Baghdad. This was central to Baghdad's long-term objective to destroy the economic infrastructure of the Kurdistan region before rolling it into the remainder of a unified Iraq as just a regular administrative region. The idea was in line with the geopolitical ambitions of Baghdad's superpower sponsors, China and Russia, as also detailed thoroughly in my latest book. These objectives were outlined some time ago by a very senior member of the Russian administration to a senior source who works closely with Iran's Petroleum Ministry, and then exclusively relayed to OilPrice.com: "By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq, the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West's final demise." On the other hand, the U.S. and its allies wanted to bolster the independence of the Kurdistan region to act as leverage to extend their influence in the rest of Iraq to the south. Their objective was to have the Kurdistan region expel all Chinese, Russian, and Iranian companies from the region, and then to gradually push for the same to happen in the rest of Iraq.

The key lever Baghdad used to effect this plan to subsume the northern Kurdistan region was a deal struck in 2014, in which the FGI pledged to send the KRG money each month from Iraq's central government budget (17% at the time the deal was made) in exchange for the KRG pledging to send oil produced in its region (around 550,000 bpd at the time of the initial deal) to the FGI. The deal has never worked properly, with either Baghdad accusing Erbil of underdelivering oil (and selling it separately outside the terms of the agreement) or Erbil accusing Baghdad of underpaying from the budget - or both simultaneously. This, though, has caused a big problem for Baghdad since the outbreak of U.S./Israel-Iran War, in that the KRG had the only workable pipeline solution that would enable Baghdad to move its oil anywhere for monetisation through exports. Moreover, the supply/demand dynamics shifted so that European refiners grew desperate to secure any replacement barrels to compensate for those that had come through the Strait. To capitalise on this - but with no fully working pipeline itself, and disagreements with the KRG still simmering away - Baghdad has resorted in recent weeks to transporting oil to Turkey as and when it can through trucks overland.

Something is better than nothing, of course, but these volumes pale into insignificance when compared to those that could be achieved through a working pipeline, and it is this that Baghdad is aiming to get up and running as soon as possible. Not that long ago, the FGI had an oil pipeline that ran from the disputed, federally-controlled Kirkuk province adjacent to Iraq's Kurdistan region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It ran northwest from the Kirkuk K1 field through federal territory (the Salahaddin and Nineveh provinces, near Mosul) up to the border town of Fishkhabur. This "original" Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline or Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) consisted of two pipes, which theoretically had a nameplate capacity of 1.6 million bpd combined and was split into 1.1 million bpd for the 46-inch (1,168-mm) diameter pipe and 500,000 bpd for the 40-inch (1,016-mm) line. This FGI-controlled pipeline's export capacity reached between 250,000 and 400,000 bpd when running normally, but even before the Islamic State entered the picture in 2014, the pipeline was subject to repeated and ongoing attacks by various Sunni militant groups operating in the region. Given its unreliability as an export option, the KRG constructed its own single side-track pipeline, from the Taq Taq field through Khurmala, which joins the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in the border town of Fishkhabur. This had a nameplate capacity of 700,000 bpd, which was then increased to 1 million bpd, although it has so far reached only 900,000 bpd.

With or without a peace deal between Iran and the U.S./Israel alliance, Baghdad is now pushing ahead with the Kirkuk-Nineveh pipeline as part of the Iraq-Turkey crude oil pipeline extending to Ceyhan Port on the Mediterranean Sea, which is independent of the KRG. The Kirkuk-to-Nineveh line is not a standalone project, but rather is the vital northern leg of the rehabilitated federal network, proving the physical pipe required to carry oil around the KRG's territory and deliver it directly to the Fishkhabur border terminal. The 350,000-bpd design capacity of this Kirkuk-to-Nineveh segment reflects the Oil Ministry's cautious, phased approach, as they cannot safely test the entire 1.6 million bpd nameplate capacity of the old system at once. Opening this 350,000-bpd pipeline allows Baghdad to easily handle the initial trial target of 150,000 to 250,000 bpd of Kirkuk crude next month. Moreover, once the southern Basra-to-Haditha corridor is built, it will plug into this newly opened Kirkuk-Nineveh-Fishkhabur line, creating a seamless, high-volume flow from the Persian Gulf to Turkey - at least, that is the idea.

However, just when the West thought that Iraq might be moving back into its own sphere of influence and away from China's, Beijing's hand has appeared again in this grand pipeline project. To obviate any future problems that might come in transporting oil from its massive southern fields out into the world, Baghdad is working to connect these directly to the northern network, and to achieve this, it has agreed to partner heavily with Chinese engineering firms. This will be part of the US$1.5 billion emergency infrastructure budget approved by former Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani that ties into the 2019 "Oil-for-Projects" agreement between Baghdad and Beijing, fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Suffice it to say here that under this framework, Iraq sets aside 150,000 barrels of oil per day in an escrow account to serve as collateral for such work undertaken by Chinese entities. Indeed, Baghdad bypassed traditional open public bidding to directly invite specialised Chinese state companies to fast-track construction of the US$5 billion Basra-to-Haditha pipeline - the 700-kilometre mega-corridor designed to pump 2.5 million bpd from the south up toward the northern networks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 17:00
https://ift.tt/4m6gJ72
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/4m6gJ72
via IFTTT

Iraq's Oil Collapse Sparks Race For New Export Routes