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Egypt's Sisi Declares His Presidency Will End In 2030

Via Middle East Eye

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has declared that his presidential term will end in 2030 and that the question of his departure from office is now "settled and will not be discussed".

Sisi, 71, said on Saturday during a graduation ceremony at the Egyptian Military Academy that "the Egyptian constitution would not be touched". He is currently serving a six-year term.

Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi (source: Russian Information Office)

"The year 2030 will mark the end of my presidential term. This matter is completely settled," Sisi said.

"I will not leave the Egyptian state until it is brimming with its own people capable of shouldering responsibility."

The president added that the military academy was creating a new generation of leaders.

Sisi came to power in 2013 after leading a military coup that deposed Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi.

Rights groups estimate that over 60,000 prisoners of conscience are held in Egyptian jails, including more than 1,000 women.

Many prisoners, including former President Morsi and several opposition figures, have died as a result of medical neglect and other inhumane prison conditions, according to rights groups.

Sisi's latest comments come at a turbulent time in the region. Last week, Egypt’s foreign minister reaffirmed the country's support for Saudi Arabia in its conflict with Yemen's Houthis, saying that "Gulf security is integral to Egypt’s national security and our solidarity with Saudi Arabia."

Egypt has also been involved in military conflict with its neighbors. Last week, an Egyptian air strike killed 72 civilian workers at a gold mine on the Sudan-Egypt border.

Egypt backs the Sudanese Armed Forces in its war against the UAE-backed paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Sisi's government is also at loggerheads with Ethiopia, which it sees as a potential naval rival in the Red Sea and with which it has a long-standing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Egypt recently hosted a conference with representatives from Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea to discuss coordinating military and intelligence efforts should conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea escalate.

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"Trans ID In Free Fall": After Decade-Long Surge, Far Fewer Teens Identify As Lesbian, Gay, Or Bisexual

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

The percentage of American high schoolers who say they are homosexual or bisexual has plummeted after years on the rise.

Based on data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, psychologist and researcher Jean Twenge found that "the decline appears to be driven almost entirely by girls."

Girls identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual dropped 5 percentage points, hitting 22 percent last year. Among boys, that percentage fell by 2 percentage points to 7 percent.

"The trends are striking," especially compared to data from a decade ago, Twenge, a professor at San Diego State University, wrote on her blog in late September.

Reasons for the decline in teen in lesbian, gay, or bisexual identification are not readily apparent. "I have to confess: I have no idea," Twenge wrote.

Determining whether the numbers reflect the start of a trend requires further examination, she and other professionals say.

Competing explanations for the shift are emerging amid a larger debate over alternative sexuality in America.

Patterns Emerge

By comparing the CDC's newly released 2025 Youth Risk Behavior Survey with its 2023 figures for grades 9 through 12, Twenge identified a pattern: The younger the grade level, the sharper the decline in lesbian, gay, or bisexual identification.

Ninth graders calling themselves lesbian, gay, or bisexual dropped from 17 to 11 percent.

For 12th-grade students, the number dipped by 2 points, from 18 to 16 percent.

Twenge's analysis excluded responses from students who said they describe their sexual orientation "another way," were unsure, or didn't understand the survey question.

Identifying as transgender - which is a gender identity, rather than a sexual orientation - also was not specifically addressed.

The newly reported drops contrast with data from preceding years.

With 2015 as a baseline, the number of girls identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual ballooned 128 percent in six years; for boys, the number went up 99 percent in eight years, Twenge wrote.

At the same time, the percentage of young adults aged 18 to 24 identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual "is no longer racing upward as it did between 2014 and 2022," Twenge wrote in another blog post.

In 'Free Fall'?

A few studies appear to reflect findings similar to those Twenge described in the CDC data.

Between 2022 and 2025, students identifying as "straight" or heterosexual climbed from 76 percent to 83 percent, the University of Minnesota reported. That study surveyed Minnesota schoolchildren in grades 5, 8, 9, and 11.

And, a year ago, Canadian political science professor Eric Kaufmann pointed to a few studies reporting non-heterosexuality was dropping among high schoolers and college students.

The data showed "trans identification is in free fall among the young," he wrote on X.

Twenge referenced Kaufmann's quote and wrote that while declining lesbian, gay, or bisexual identification is not dramatic in older teens, the data for ninth graders "really does look like a free fall."

That observation about Generation Alpha - young people born in 2010 or later - "could be a harbinger of a coming wave of change, or it could be a blip - it's hard to say," Twenge wrote.

Presidential Politics

Liberals and conservatives alike opined that the pro-traditional-family policies of President Donald Trump appear to be playing a role.

Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, which combats "anti-family extremism," told The Epoch Times that his organization has supported the Trump administration's efforts to "eliminate transgender ideology from school curriculum" and to ban boys from playing in girls' sports.

The administration has done a good job overall with "getting this type of ideology out of our schools, and instead embracing normalcy," he said.

A married father of eight, Schilling said: "It's very clear across all social data that families are incredibly important to someone's fulfillment and happiness and well-being in life."

He has witnessed lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transsexual ideology tearing families apart and distorting what "love" means.

"So many of these young people are getting lost in this seemingly attractive ideology that proposes tolerance and acceptance - when, ultimately, it doesn't provide either of those things," Schilling said. "It's eliminating anyone in their lives that might have concerns or questions about these newfound identities, it's just a totally tragic and sad political ideology that's taking hold."

'Oppression'

Biology professor and blogger PZ Myers, who calls himself a "godless liberal," is skeptical about the CDC data possibly revealing a trend.

"Are teenagers actually becoming straight again? That makes no sense," he wrote in an essay.

Those young people are "in the process of discovering their sexuality; it's not as if ten year olds were biased towards gayness and then 'straightened up' when they were 15," Myers wrote on his blog.

His essay - titled, "Oppression Works!" - implies that the respondents may have been unwilling to admit they are lesbian, gay, or bisexual in the current political climate.

"This is not a good time to honestly express yourself, because the [expletive] crazy Republicans are running roughshod over schools, education, and science," Myers wrote.

The data Twenge compiled shows that a slight drop in lesbian, gay, or bisexual identification began in 2021 for students in ninth and tenth grades. That year, Trump ended his first term in office.

More noticeable declines began around 2024, during Democratic President Joe Biden's tenure, even though his administration advanced pro-LGBT policies.

'Fad' Versus Human Nature

Politics aside, Pennsylvania licensed professional counselor Andrew Rodriguez believes cultural influences and human nature could be driving the decrease, if it holds.

"It's clear there was a social contagion, because of the 'fad' aspect of this," he told The Epoch Times. "And now people are starting to realize, 'Oh, this isn't truly who I am.'"

"Social engineering" - using society-wide influences to steer a culture in a desired direction - helped make identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual socially acceptable or even cool, especially for girls, Rodriguez said.

For some young people, "it just was an idea, and they jumped on it ... there was some social capital they got out of it, and now they're realizing that's not as popular anymore," he said.

Rodriguez, who owns and operates Integrity Christian Counseling, said he believes God instilled people with a drive toward unions with the opposite sex.

He thinks more girls are probably realizing "I really do want to be a wife and mom."

Texas psychologist David Pickup said a recent historic U.S. Supreme Court ruling will help more people face "reality" about sexuality and gender.

In Chiles v. Salazar, the court held that a Colorado law violated therapist Kaley Chiles's constitutional right to fully explore sex and gender issues with some clients.

Pickup leads a group that includes therapists, scholars, and researchers who believe adolescents and their parents "should not be pressured to affirm homosexual identity."

With the ruling, coupled with other societal shifts, "some people are realizing that LGBT issues are not inborn and change is possible," Pickup said.

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Princeton Researchers Find A Lower-Energy Route To Fusion Ignition

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

  • A new Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory model finds that heating plasma first and compressing it second could sharply cut the energy needed to reach fusion ignition.

  • Tungsten at just one part in 10,000 could double the pressure ignition requires, a red flag for the dozen-plus next-gen machines built with tungsten walls.

  • The findings are theoretical, but a liquid lithium coating could keep tungsten out of the plasma as AI-era money keeps pouring into fusion.

A new model for nuclear fusion has potentially discovered a significantly more energy-efficient way to achieve nuclear fusion, and flipped everything we thought we knew about the fusion process. The scientists' modelling also flips the traditional order of operations for managing and sustaining plasma in a controlled fusion experiment. Traditionally, fusion processes start by compressing plasma for higher density, and then heating it to superhot temperatures. However, new modelling from the United States Department of Energy's Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) shows that reversing this order of operations could drastically reduce the energy inputs necessary to achieve ignition.

This is big. Ignition refers to when a fusion experiment creates more energy than it consumes. To date, this has been the biggest and most elusive challenge of achieving fusion - the process which powers our own sun - here on Earth. The first ever successful ignition was achieved in 2022 at California's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. And while this achievement has been repeated and other instances of ignition have occurred, the sector is still a far cry from creating enough net energy to be anywhere close to practical and commercial application.

Unlocking the secret to commercially scalable nuclear fusion would solve much of the world's energy problems essentially overnight. Fusion provides a near-limitless source of clean energy and yields none of the hazardous and radioactive spent nuclear fuel associated with nuclear fission. It's therefore viewed as a 'holy grail' of clean energy. This is why finding more energy-efficient pathways toward ignition is such a big deal, even if they are - at this point - purely theoretical.

But the team at PPPL didn't just discover how to make fusion easier. They also discovered a way to make fusion much, much more difficult - and found that it could be a major stumbling block for many of the nuclear fusion experiments and startups racing to achieve commercial nuclear fusion. The team found that the incorporation of just a tiny amount of the element tungsten in the fusion process - as small as one part of tungsten in 10,000 within the plasma - could cause the pressure needed to achieve ignition to double, creating major issues for efficiency and stability.

This is highly relevant for many next-gen fusion experiments which use tungsten in the design of their reactors. According to reporting from Interesting Engineering, "More than a dozen next-generation fusion machines have selected tungsten for their inner walls because the metal can withstand extremely high temperatures." If the tiniest bit of this tungsten enters the plasma, achieving fusion quickly becomes much more difficult, and could even make the experiment unstable.

Discovering this risk now may avoid a lot of wasted energy and expenditures going forward. And, happily, those tungsten-based reactors don't need to be scrapped; they just need to be coated, such as with liquid lithium, to ensure that the tungsten doesn't contaminate the plasma.

"While more study is needed, we are excited by these results, and they suggest a clear path forward for future research in this area," PPPL physicist Jonathan Menard told Interesting Engineering.

PPPL is far from alone in its enthusiasm for fusion research and its disruptive potential. After a century of slow and painstaking progress from very few players, the field of nuclear fusion is now exploding as investors take note of the accelerated developments in the field, and the AI boom causes VC money to flood into all kinds of alternative energies. As a result, startups are starting to crowd into the sector, creating more competition and leading to increased innovation.

Some of the tech sector's biggest names and deepest pockets are heavily involved in the burgeoning fusion sector. Microsoft's Bill Gates and OpenAI's Sam Altman are vocal advocates for and financial backers of nuclear fusion research as a critical solution to the energy monster their own companies are creating through the hyperscaling of AI data centers. Altman has admitted that the world simply doesn't have enough energy to support the tech sector's growth trajectory in a business-as-usual scenario.

"There's no way to get there without a breakthrough," he said at the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "It motivates us to go invest more in fusion."

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Iran War Has Cost Nearly $2,000 Per US Household: Moody's Top Economist

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimated Oct. 12 that the Iran war has cost the average U.S. household nearly $2,000 since it began, or about $265 billion nationwide. He put roughly $1,100 per household on higher energy and transportation costs, $540 on higher interest rates and $360 on military spending, and said the energy tab is still rising by about $50 per household each week at current fuel prices.

An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter, assigned to Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 50, takes off from the flight deck of the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner on May 4, 2026. US NAVY/AFP via Getty Images

Zandi wrote on X: "Consider that the war's costs taken together have absorbed about half the average American household's income gain over the past eight months. No wonder the war is so unpopular."

White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly answered in a statement: "Mark Zandi is a Democrat donor who is frequently wrong - including predicting multiple recessions that never happened." She added: "President Trump is rightfully ensuring that Iran, a country that for 47 years chanted 'Death to America,' can never have a nuclear weapon." U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began Feb. 28.

Zandi's number is a broad economic estimate, not a federal outlay. Brown University puts consumer costs at $133.3 billion, about $1,018 per household, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has testified to about $37.5 billion in direct military costs, Newsweek reported. ZH has tracked estimates running well above the White House's.

As the Epoch Times notes further, "Higher energy prices are contributing most to the costs," Zandi said. "A gallon of regular goes for $4.37, up from just under $3 before the war. Diesel is above $6, and jet fuel has nearly doubled. As winter approaches, the much higher price of home heating fuel is also adding to the costs."

Zandi said the war's inflation contributed to the Fed's decision last month to raise rates and signal that more rate increases are coming.

"Long-term rates are also up a lot - fixed mortgage rates have climbed from below 6 percent before the war to 7.5 percent. By our reckoning, the higher rates have cost the economy about $540 per household," he said.

In September, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the war cost the U.S. military $38.1 billion through Aug. 1. With fighting expected to continue, the war was estimated to cost between $2 billion and $3 billion each month, depending on its intensity.

On Oct. 5, the Congressional Research Service published a report listing some of the major equipment losses during the war.

The report listed 81 fixed-wing or rotary-wing aircraft, including drones that were lost or damaged during the conflict.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated the cost of equipment losses as of Aug. 1 to be between $1.9 billion and $3.3 billion, depending on the Department of War's plans for replacement.

Democrats have continually pointed to the cost of the war in their criticism of Trump.

In September, 46 Democratic or left-leaning Independent Senators sent a letter to Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth demanding more information on the costs of the war.

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Dowd: "Investment Bubbles Are A Feature Of Capitalism, Not A Bug"

Authored by Ed Dowd via Ed Dowd's Beyond The Narrative Substack,

On Friday October 9th Bloomberg published an article titled "Jeffries' Chris Wood Sees 'Massive Capital Destruction' in AI." His view is that the most likely long-term outcome of the AI boom is massive capital destruction in the US, with market share shifting to cheaper open-source Chinese models. Wood has mostly got it right in my opinion except for two differences. My first difference is that Chinese models are not the only open-source models available and that western open-source models are closing the gap. Secondly, while his view correctly flags the overbuild and the competitive pressure from lower-cost alternatives what it leaves out is the long history of innovative technology infrastructure bubbles and the reliable pattern that follows them which is:

excitement/mania → overinvestment → financial collapse → distressed assets → recapitalized cheap infrastructure fuels the next economic wave.

In regard to the AI bubble, I believe we are currently in the overinvestment phase with cracks emerging. Let us look at some historical examples to illustrate the pattern and see if we can glean what the future of this current bubble might look like.

The US Railroad Bubble

In the decades after the Civil War, railroads became the transformative technology of the era. Capital, much of it European, flooded in. Between the late 1860s and early 1870s, tens of thousands of miles of track were laid, often into sparsely settled or unprofitable territory. Speculative financing, land grants, and the expectation of endless growth created a classic mania. Early projects showed strong returns, which attracted more money into later, riskier lines built far ahead of demand. When financing dried up, highlighted by the failure of Jay Cooke's bank in marketing Northern Pacific bonds, the Panic of 1873 followed. More than 100 railroads went bankrupt in the ensuing years, banks failed, and investors were wiped out. The depression lasted years. Yet the physical tracks remained. The surviving and reorganized network became the backbone of American industrial expansion, enabling efficient movement of goods, people, and capital that powered decades of growth. The overbuilt infrastructure, once distressed and recapitalized, proved far more valuable to the broader economy than the paper losses suggested.

The 1920s Utility Bubble

The 1920s electrification boom followed a similar script. Central-station utilities expanded rapidly, and holding companies consolidated regional systems into large, leveraged empires. Electricity generation and revenues grew dramatically as the technology moved from novelty to infrastructure. Utility stocks soared and became a major part of the market. Holding companies facilitated access to capital and technical expertise, but the structures were opaque, and capacity was built aggressively. The 1929 crash and subsequent Depression exposed the leverage and accounting. Samuel Insull's empire collapsed in spectacular fashion, and the Dow Jones Utilities Average plunged. Reforms including the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935 broke up the largest structures and shifted the industry toward regulated regional monopolies. What remained was a vastly expanded electrical grid and generation capacity. Widespread electrification transformed industry, homes, and productivity for the rest of the century. The bust was painful for equity and debt holders; the long-term economic payoff from cheap, abundant power was enormous.

The Dotcom Bubble

The most recent and directly analogous example is the late 1990s telecom fiber buildout during the Dotcom era. Carriers and infrastructure firms poured hundreds of billions into fiber-optic networks, switches, and related equipment, largely financed with debt and encouraged by forecasts of internet traffic doubling every few months. Capacity vastly exceeded near-term demand. After the bubble burst, market values collapsed, many telecoms went bankrupt, and bandwidth prices fell sharply. A large portion of the newly laid fiber sat "dark" or unlit. Through bankruptcies and recapitalizations, that physical infrastructure was acquired at deep discounts, often pennies on the dollar. The resulting cheap broadband made business models viable that would have been prohibitively expensive otherwise. Google, YouTube, Facebook, Apple's smartphone ecosystem, Netflix, software-as-a-service, and cloud services all scaled on that excess capacity. Without the overbuilding and subsequent distress, Web 2.0 as we know it does not happen at the same speed or cost. The capital destruction was real but the residual infrastructure seeded the next wave of growth.

AI Bubble (Yes it is a bubble!)

I believe we are now in the AI infrastructure equivalent of the overinvestment phase. Massive capital is flowing into data centers, chips, power, and related equipment. The sheer scale of spending is turning advanced AI models into a commodity faster than many equity and debt investors appear to appreciate. Chinese open-source models are already applying downward pricing pressure, consistent with the Jefferies view. Cracks are visible. In my Substack piece "Wall Street's AI Capex Party...It's 2 AM & The Bar Is About to Close!", the signals included stalled private credit funding for the buildout, cracking enterprise demand as promised productivity gains fail to materialize at scale, looming power constraints that are becoming the binding limit rather than chip supply, and open-source pricing pressure that compresses margins.

Additional recent indicators from public commentary reinforce this: circular deals in which AI companies run negative free cash flow and rely on debt investors to keep purchasing chips at elevated prices; recent analyses showing major players cannot cover contracted compute commitments under realistic revenue assumptions; and narrative shifts such as space based data centers that paper over terrestrial grid and power bottlenecks. Growth rates implied by current valuations look vulnerable once the second derivative of funding and utilization slows. It is not a question of not if the bubble bursts but when it bursts.

Credit Markets Always End Infrastructure Buildouts

Debt and credit have been central to every one of these infrastructure buildouts. In the railroad boom, bonds financed the majority of the expansion, often more than three-quarters of the capital. When those markets stopped absorbing new bond issues (e.g. Jay Cooke & Co. could no longer place Northern Pacific bonds) the credit system seized up. Then bank runs followed, the New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days, and within two years roughly a third of outstanding railroad bonds had stopped paying interest. The equity markets lagged in this period...credit markets ended the railroad party abruptly.

The 1920s utility expansion followed the same pattern on a different scale. Samuel Insull's holding company pyramid relied on layers of debt and bank loans secured by the securities of the operating companies themselves (financial engineering). Once revenues softened and the banks refused to roll the notes in 1932, the structure collapsed into receivership. In this period the equity markets led the credit markets first with the 1929 crash then credit followed later.

In the telecom fiber boom, carriers raised hundreds of billions in bonds and used vendor financing and circular deals to keep the buildout going. Credit markets ultimately marked the end of the buildout but equities peaked in March of 2000 before credit. Credit spreads later widened sharply in 2001 and 2002, defaults clustered in the sector for years, and bondholders recovered roughly twenty cents on the dollar in many cases. When lenders stopped funding incremental capacity, the overinvestment phase ended and the financial collapse began.

The same dynamic is now visible in the AI buildout, where private credit has stalled, circular debt structures are proliferating, off balance sheet financing is growing and early signs of stress are appearing in CCC junk credit markets. Whether equity markets lead or lag this cycle remains to be seen but the case could be made that given the tremendous amount of passive equity investing the discounting mechanism of equity could lag and credit leads this time.

Bottom Line

Innovative technology capex cycles repeat themselves because human nature has not changed. Mania and excitement give way to overinvestment, which produces financial collapse and distressed assets. Those assets then become the cheap foundation for the next economic wave. Those who believe in cycles and a constant human nature may want to protect themselves accordingly and reduce exposure in the AI complex where risk-reward no longer makes sense. Then when the bust does arrive watch for the opportunities that emerge from the ashes where durable longer-term value will be created.

Bubbles are a feature of capitalism, not a bug. They destroy capital in the short run and, through the process of overbuilding and recapitalization, often leave behind the physical and technical foundation for longer-term productivity gains. The pattern is consistent throughout history...though the timing and severity may vary. The long-term outcome for the economy is usually more favorable than the peak-to-trough equity charts imply and a net positive over time.

"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun." Ecclesiastes 1:9

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