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Mayor Adams Announces End Of NYC's Controversial Vaccine Passport Rule

At long last, New Yorkers and tourists visiting the Big Apple will soon be able to enter stores, restaurants, bars and other venues without needing to show proof of vaccination status.

That's right: Mayor Eric Adams is finally lifting his city's requirement for patrons to be vaccinated, one of the most restrictive such laws in the country. It was first implemented by his predecessor, Bill de Blasio, last year. However, he clarified Monday that there are no plans to remove requirements that workers be vaccinated.

Mayor Adams clarified that the requirement would be lifted on March 7 so long as COVID cases continue to trend downward.

NYC's indoor mask requirement for all public schools will be lifted on the same day (again, provided no unexpected spikes in infections arise).

Adams noted that more than a million students would return to public schools Monday after their February break. According to the mayor, if students can intermix this week without creating any "unforeseen spikes" in infections, then that would essentially confirm that the mask mandates are no longer necessary.

"New York City’s numbers continue to go down day after day, so, as long as COVID indicators show a low level of risk and we see no surprises this week, on Monday, March 7 we will also lift Key2NYC requirements," Adams announced. "This will give business owners the time to adapt and will allow us to ensure we are making the best public health decisions for the people of New York."

Circling back the vaccine passport rule, which was first adopted in the late summer of 2021, it's worth noting that it hasn't always been enforced. But it does still technically apply to restaurants, bars, nightclubs, coffee shops, fast food eateries, indoor fitness locations, movie theaters, music and concert venues, museums, sports arenas and stadiums, theaters and billiard halls, among other places.

Adams, who is seen as far more business-friendly than his predecessor, Mayor de Blasio, had hinted that he was eagerly awaiting the end of the vaccine passport rule during an economic development press briefing on Wednesday. Adams said at the time that he meets daily with health experts, who have provided structure and benchmarks the city should meet before it returns to pre-pandemic normalcy.

"We can't close down again, and I'm not going to do something at my anticipation to get back that's going to jeopardize closing down the city again," Adams said. "Our economy can't handle it. We don't have another $11 billion to put back in the economy. We must do it the smart way."

Adams decision follows a move by Gov. Kathy Hochul to ditch the Empire State's mask mandate (for everywhere but schools), although Hochul said over the weekend that the statewide mandate for schools would be ending on Wednesday.

The city fired more than 1,400 municipal workers over their refusal to abide by the vaccine mandate, which was extremely controversial in parts of the city like South Brooklyn and Staten Island.

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Watch: Dem Rep. Suggests Kicking Out Every Russian Student In The US

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Californian Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell suggested last week that the government should consider kicking out every Russian student currently in the United States as a response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Appearing on CNN, obviously, Swalwell declared “Frankly, I think closing their embassy in the United States, kicking every Russian student out of the United States, those should all be on the table.”

“Vladimir Putin needs to know every day that he is in Ukraine, there are more severe options that could come,” Swalwell said, attempting to justify the comments.

Watch:

Firstly, that’s a bit xenophobic, no? It’s ok when Democrats do it though, right?

Secondly, you can just imagine Putin receiving the news ‘Oh no, the students might be sent home’ call off the war machine.

Meanwhile, Republican Senator Tom Cotton noted Sunday that Biden’s sanctions are “riddled with loopholes.”

“It’s time for the president to quit pussy-footing around,” Cotton said, adding “We need to rush those weapons that were announced for delivery yesterday to the front. Anti-tank, anti-aircraft missiles, sniper rifles, ammunition. It should have been done weeks ago.”

Cotton quoted White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki saying “we made the mistake of seeing Vladimir Putin of seeing the world through global norms.”

“I never made that mistake,” Cotton proclaimed, adding “I’ve seen [Putin] as a ruthless dictator. He took the ambitions he’s always had and went for the jugular. Thankfully brave Ukrainian people are fighting back and every day they hold out they continue to stiffen the spines of leaders in the west. We need to urge them on and continue providing them the weapons they need to fight back.”

Watch:

Cotton’s comments came as Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces to go on the highest alert:

*  *  *

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Jamie Dimon Warns SWIFT Sanctions May Bring Unintended Consequences, Can Be Circumvented

Just hours after western leaders slapped Russia with unprecedented sanctions the likes of which the world has never seen, including a targeted SWIFT expulsion of key Russia banks as well as an asset and transaction freeze of the Russia central bank, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon explained not only why this harsh escalation may be futile but why it could backfire spectacularly in the years to come.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, the CEO of the world's largest bank said that "there are a lot of workarounds for SWIFT, so there are different tools we use for different reasons" adding that “the banks are talking with the government so everyone understands the issues, not because they’re for or against any particular thing."

While SWIFT sanctions mean companies can’t use the messaging system to do business with the Russian entities affected, they can still do business with them, Dimon said. In fact it's as simple as sending an email with payment instructions, because what SWIFT really is, is a messaging remnant from a bygone era, before emails, even before the fax machine.  

Dimon also said that disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system may bring “unintended consequences” that include third parties finding ways around the penalty.

“What countries do you hurt? What people are going to do workarounds?” Dimon said, referring to "bad players" and others finding workarounds, not his own firm, according to a company spokesperson. Dimon said sanctions, by contrast, are “very targeted, very specific, very clean.”

As Bloomberg reported on Friday, JPMorgan was among Wall Street firms that had counseled Washington against kicking Russia off SWIFT, arguing that it could have far-reaching fallout that could hurt the global economy and undermine the purpose of the penalties.

Dimon's full interview is below...

... and unlike his brutally wrong bitcoin predictions, Dimon will be right about SWIFT.  In a rhetorical Q&A about the consequences of Russian SWIFT expulsions, Goldman asked whether there is concern this this would undermine the reserve currency status of the Dollar (and Euro) and responded:

The US is in a unique position of having the global reserve currency, which underpins a substantial portion of international trade and foreign exchange transactions, while also granting the Executive fairly broad discretion through IEEPA to restrict US capital flows by invoking security concerns. The widespread use of the Dollar in international markets, for instance, allows the United States to affect foreign policy goals through financial market channels (hard power) and may also confer certain reputational benefits (soft power). However, overuse of these powers could compel other actors to try to replace Dollar transactions, as Russia already did to some extent following earlier sanctions.

In this regard, the coordination across the G-7 is particularly important. Already, global reserve managers had relatively limited options for shifting reserves out of Dollars given limited supply of strong investment grade assets in the Euro area and limited capital market depth elsewhere. This is especially true for the large reserve managers, like China. But there are also implications for smaller central banks, many of which have used the BIS to facilitate new FX reserves in Chinese securities given the capital constraints, which supports our view that those investments are primarily aimed at diversifying and improving returns. Overall, while these actions could ultimately compel a change in reserve accumulation behavior, and support additional inflows to CNY, there is not really a viable alternative available at the moment for large reserve holders, especially when Europe is also participating in the sanctions.

An even more accurate take comes from the Bloomberg editors who wrote an article this morning explaining why "Wielding SWIFT Against Russian Banks Is a Big Risk" and in which they wrote:

Aside from the immediate collateral damage, excluding Russian banks from SWIFT risks longer-term consequences for international finance. As with any network (think Facebook), the value of SWIFT depends on the number of banks that use it. To that end, the cooperative seeks to encourage the broadest possible participation by maintaining neutrality. Only Iran, which was already isolated financially, has ever been cut off. The example of Russia could prompt others — such as China — to turn to alternatives, fragmenting the payments system and potentially even undermining the U.S. dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency. One could even imagine a future in which rival nations turned similar financial weapons against the U.S.

* * *

Western leaders should be wary of going further and ejecting Russia from SWIFT completely. The effect would be utterly indiscriminate: Supplies of Russian oil, gas and other commodities could collapse, foreign creditors would suffer heavy losses, and even Russians who scorned Putin’s actions and sought to emigrate would have to resort to laundering techniques to get their money out of the country. Putin might well interpret such a cutoff as an act of war and respond accordingly.

As the conflict continues, the international community should work together to coordinate more traditional sanctions aimed at an increasing number of Russian banks, which would impose similarly harsh punishment without such dire unintended consequences — and on measures (such as those already announced) aimed at limiting the Russian central bank’s ability to support targeted institutions. Western nations’ desire to do something big and bold is correct, but they — and the U.S. especially — should be wary of taking actions that they’ll regret.

Whether Putin will interpret the Western expulsion from SWIFT as an acto of war remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: on Monday morning, stocks linked to China's version of SWIFT - the Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System (CIPS) - exploded limit up.

The reason: at least some in the market are betting that the glory days of SWIFT are coming to an end thanks to the West's own actions, and its replacement is an acronym that very few have heard... for now.

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The 'Adults In Charge' Have Bumbled Us Into A New Cold War

Authored by Jim Daws via American Thinker (emphasis ours),

During Thursday's speech announcing ever greater sanctions on Russia, Joe Biden claimed, "The Russian military has begun a brutal assault on the people of Ukraine, without provocation, without justification, without necessity."  This was a Western chauvinist point of view that does not take into account Russia's security concerns and historic grievances since the Soviet Union's defeat in the Cold War.

There is another reading of history — one from a Russian chauvinist point of view — that Western governments and media turn a blind eye to, and that has inevitably led to the current conflict and the specter of a much wider one. 

Putin recounted an event during his extensive pre-invasion speech on February 21.  In 2000, when he first became president of Russia, he had proposed to then–U.S. president Bill Clinton that Russia join NATO and be integrated into Europe.  Russia was an economic basket case after decades of ruinous communist rule and its military a shell of its former greatness.  It was an opportunity for America to seize on its Cold War victory, similar to how we had capitalized on our victories over Germany and Japan after World War II.  

We can speculate as to why this opportunity was squandered, but I suspect that Europe's leaders feared competing economically with a newly liberated Russia and that America's defense industry was reluctant to lose a geostrategic foe that had justified decades of huge military budgets.

What is not in question is that the U.S., Great Britain, Germany, and France had, in 1991, promised Russia that NATO would not encroach on Russia if Russia withdrew its troops from Eastern Europe.  That promise was broken just eight years later, when Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic were granted NATO membership.  Five years after that, seven more countries in Eastern Europe were allowed to join and four more since then, including that military powerhouse, North Macedonia. 

In 1999, NATO engaged in an air war against Serbia, a Slavic nation, like Russia, that had been part of the USSR under Yugoslavia.  This was widely seen as a grand gesture by then-president Bill Clinton and secretary of state Madeleine Albright to show how NATO was even willing to bomb Christians in order to protect Muslims.  Today, many of the same Democrats and neocons you see decrying the violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity were vocal cheerleaders for the partition of Kosovo, over bitter Serbian and Russian objections. 

The ethnically Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army then proceeded to ethnically cleanse Serbian Christians from their ancestral homeland, while NATO stood idly by.

The roots of this current conflict go back, most recently, to 2014, when Barack Obama's State Department sponsored a coup that toppled a duly elected Russia-friendly government in Kyiv and installed one that opposed Russia.  Obama funded that so-called color revolution to the tune of $6 billion, and the notoriously corrupt nation became a feeding frenzy for the families and cronies of U.S. politicians, including the Biden family.  Joe Biden was in charge of Ukraine policy at the time, and his crack-addled son was dispatched as the Biden family bag man.

Later that same year, assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland, who had managed the coup in Ukraine, testified before a congressional committee that Obama and his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, had also spent $20 billion on a similar effort at regime change inside Russia itself. 

So Vladimir Putin might be forgiven for believing that the Western powers, in their refusal to forswear NATO expansion into Ukraine — the historic approach for invasions — don't have Russia's best interest at heart.

The bitter harvest of this history is the current invasion of Ukraine and an emerging second Cold War in which the U.S. and Europe may hold far fewer advantages than the first one.

On the eve of this winter's "Genocide" Olympics in Beijing, Putin and China's Xi Jinping signed an alliance pledging to cooperate economically and militarily, stating that in this new global era, "Friendship between their states has no limits." 

In China, Russia now has an ally with an unlimited appetite for its fossil fuel and agricultural products.  In Russia, China now has a growing market for its cheap labor manufacturing output.  Alone, each nation has more degreed engineers than the U.S. and will be positioned to share advanced military, space, and industrial technology — much of it stolen from the U.S.  This relationship will be largely beyond the reach of the Western sanctions Biden announced.

As in the previous Cold War, we can expect satellite client states to be deployed to destabilize, threaten, and terrorize the Western nations and our allies.  Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, and others will bleed our military, resources, and attention.

By pushing Russia into the arms of an ascendant communist China, the West, and the so-called "adults" who are back in charge, have made a geostrategic blunder of historic proportions. 

The truly tragic part is, it did not have to be this way. 

*  *  *

Jim Daws is a recovering talk radio host at jim@jimdaws.com.

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California Drops School Mask Mandate, Will Allow Unvaccinated To Unmask Indoors

After allowing virtually everyone except the least at-risk demographic to participate in society without masks, California will no longer require masks in schools starting March 12, according to the Sacramento Bee.

The move comes as Covid-19 cases and deaths have plummeted precipitously to pre-Omicron levels, as the far-less deadly strain continues to make up virtually all current cases.

Earlier this month, the Golden State showered its residents with news that masks would no longer be required indoors for the unvaccinated - repealing a mandate that had been in place since December's Omicron spike. Starting March 1, however, masks will only be recommended and not required for unvaccinated individuals indoors.

We're guessing that keeping kids masked while letting adults galavant around the state bare-faced was just too much absurdity for even California. Yet...

That said, masks will still be required for people in 'high transmission' settings such as public transit, emergency shelters, jails and prisons, healthcare facilities, homeless shelters and long-term care facilities, according to the Bee.

"California continues to adjust our policies based on the latest data and science, applying what we’ve learned over the past two years to guide our response to the pandemic," said Gov. Gavin Newsom in a statement. "Masks are an effective tool to minimize spread of the virus and future variants, especially when transmission rates are high. We cannot predict the future of the virus, but we are better prepared for it and will continue to take measures rooted in science to keep California moving forward."

The Golden State is updating its masking policies at the same time as Oregon and Washington state, though the changes are not identical.

Oregon will stop requiring masks in indoor public spaces in schools on March 12 as well. Washington will also lift its indoor mask mandate at that time, but will stick with its original plan to lift the school mask mandate on March 21.

“As has been made clear time and again over the last two years, COVID-19 does not stop at state borders or county lines,” said Oregon Gov. Kate Brown in a statement “On the West Coast, our communities and economies are linked. Together, as we continue to recover from the Omicron surge, we will build resiliency and prepare for the next variant and the next pandemic.”

California, Oregon and Washington are among only 13 states that still have mask mandates in place for classrooms, drawing ire from conservatives and some parent groups. Frustrated with state leaders, some California school districts have opted to forego the state law and allow students to choose if they want to wear masks. -Sac Bee

On Friday, Newsom announced plans to lift several other statewide orders issued during the pandemic.

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Daily Briefing: Volatility Reigns as Sanctions Regime Takes Shape

Bond yields retreated and U.S. equity indexes swung from red to green and back again, as the global community continues to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. UK-based BP dumped its 19% stake in Russian oil and gas producer Rosneft, while Switzerland stepped forward from centuries of neutrality to freeze Russian assets held by its banks. And Singapore has imposed its own sanctions on Russia, a rare move by the southeast Asian country. Officials elsewhere have taken steps to cut off Russia’s access to its estimated $630 billion of foreign reserves. The Russian ruble has collapsed, while Russia’s central bank more than doubled its benchmark interest rate to 20% and closed the country’s stock market on Monday. Russian bonds tumbled, and investors braced for the possibility that Western sanctions could push Russia to default for the first time since 1998. Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to assess the geopolitical situation. And Harry Melandri, Advisor at MI2 Partners, is here to appraise markets’ reaction in today’s edition of the Daily Briefing. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3poBBa6

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Why So Few See The Last Chance To Exit

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

When the crash can no longer be denied, the drop is widely recognized as having been obvious and inevitable...

The last chance to exit is well-known in stock trading circles, but the concept can be applied much more broadly. The basic dynamic at work is a mismatch between the fundamentals (i.e. the real world) which are deteriorating due to structural changes and the psychology of participants which continues to be confident and upbeat.

A wide spectrum of emotions and human traits are in play, but the core dynamic is our desire to discount signs of trouble rather than deal with a long-term change in the tides. The long uptrend supports confidence that the uptrend will continue moving higher more or less permanently, and the desire to keep minting money by staying fully invested in the uptrend encourages cherry-picking data to support the idea that the fundamentals are still solid.

Selection bias, denial, complacency and greed all play parts in this continuation of the psychology of an uptrend even as the S-Curve has shifted from growth to stagnation as the fundamentals have deteriorated beneath the surface.

This asymmetry between the fundamentals of valuation and the psychology of valuation cloaks the change in trend so few recognize it as the last chance to exit. Participants, so well trained by years of profits to "buy the dip" and anticipate future gains, see the initial dip as an opportunity to buy rather than as a warning sign.

This complacency is reinforced by the prompt reversal of any dip and a new high in valuations. Again, this dynamic is not limited to stocks; the ascent of housing valuations feeds the same complacency and selection bias: housing can't go down because...the litany of supportive narratives is always long and illustrious.

The last chance to exit is also present in states, cities, industries, jobs, institutions, groups and neighborhoods. The decay is ignored as everything seems to remain glued together and the rot is papered over by various pronouncements and policies.

There is typically a period of consolidation that further supports a complacent confidence that the present is immutable: the uptrend is permanent. But this consolidation is misleading: it's not a continuation of the uptrend, it's the result of first-movers selling to True Believers in the immutability of the present and getting out of Dodge.

When the S-Curve rolls over, the rapidity of the descent surprises True Believers, who assure themselves that the rebound will start any day. They find reasons to ignore the acceleration down as those who had hesitated to sell suddenly hit the sell button, list the house for sale, etc.

When the crash can no longer be denied, the drop is widely recognized as having been obvious and inevitable. Hindsight is 20/20, but the damage done to those who didn't sell at the the last chance to exit cannot be repaired; the losses are too deep.

*  *  *

My new book is now available at a 10% discount this month: Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States (Kindle $8.95, print $20). If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

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Russian Propaganda Playbook Extends To 'Dirty Bomb' Threats

While we earlier highlighted an article by The Conservative Treehouse exposing Western propaganda in this fourth-generation warfare between Russia and the rest of the world; they are not the only side 'playing this game'. As Claudia Rosett reports at PJMedia.com, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been giving the world a crash course in Kremlin techniques of propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, and misdirection...

*  *  *

AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been giving the world a crash course in Kremlin techniques of propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, and misdirection — for anyone not already well aware. We have heard plenty about this in recent weeks, not least from the Biden administration, which has been declassifying and releasing to the press information on what they’ve called Russia’s playbook.

A big feature of this playbook is projection: in this case the process of displacing onto someone or something else what Russia itself is actually planning, or doing. We saw this in spades during Putin’s runup to the invasion of Ukraine, as he mustered his strike force along Ukraine’s land borders and coastline. Russia accused Ukraine and NATO of threatening its security, broadcasting a narrative that at the extreme suggested Russia was in danger of an invasion from Ukraine, or NATO. The opposite was true: It was Russia threatening and preparing to invade Ukraine, threatening NATO, and staging provocations.

Russia’s narrative was patently ridiculous, but for Putin such things have their uses — for domestic propaganda, for muddying the waters, for distracting the debate from the realities, and for laying the groundwork for Russia’s staged provocations. In this case, Russia stirs up trouble and blames it on Ukraine, as Russia has been doing for years in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

In that vein, there’s an item that caught my attention last Friday, near the end of a United Nations Security Council emergency meeting on Ukraine. I mention it here not because I have any further information on this score. I stress that this is solely a heads up, in light of Russia’s record of projection and staged provocations.

The setting was the UN Security Council chamber, Friday evening, Feb. 25 — two days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has the rotating presidency of the Security Council for the month of February, and Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, was presiding. He described Russia’s invasion as a justified humanitarian intervention, saying Russia was not bombing cities or targeting civilians.

Ukraine does not currently hold one of the 10 rotating seats on the council, but Ukraine’s ambassador to the UN,  Sergiy Kyslytsya, was present to make a statement. Kyslytsya tore into Russia and Nebenzia, telling Russia’s ambassador “Your words have less value than the hole in a New York pretzel,” deploring Russia’s attack on Ukraine, citing some of the horrors, and mentioning among other things a concern about Russia’s capture of the Chernobyl nuclear plant — site of the huge nuclear accident under the USSR in 1986, and still a dangerous repository of radioactive material.

Russia’s ambassador, Nebenzia, then dropped into his closing remarks that Russian paratroopers had taken Chernobyl because Russia “does not want Ukraine to generate a dirty bomb.”

In view of Russia’s record of provocations and projection, that left me wondering if we should all be alert to what I hope would be an unthinkable Russian provocation. Russia right now is looking dreadful on the world stage; a brutal power ruled by a dictator with an army now killing people in a neighboring country, in service of his messianic claims. Ukraine, by contrast, is making a heroic defense. The Kremlin must be looking for ways to try to flip that picture.

Which leads me to a dread question. Is it possible that Russia might have its own dirty bomb, with plans to use it somewhere and blame it on Ukrainians?

I hope not. I stress that I have no further information on this score, except the patterns of Russia’s playbook, and the implication by Russia’s ambassador that we should be worried about a dirty bomb. This is not an accusation, certainly not some sensational revelation. But it is worth tucking away, as one more thing to keep in mind.

Here’s the relevant excerpt from the UN wrapup of the meeting (the boldface is mine):

Mr. NEBENZIA (Russian Federation), Council President for February, re-taking the floor in his national capacity, while noting that there is much on which to comment following the statement by the representative of Ukraine, said he would “leave the boorishness” on the latter’s conscience.  He also pointed out that units of a Russian paratrooper division took control of the area surrounding the Chernobyl power plant on 24 February.  The Russian Federation “does not want Ukraine to generate a dirty bomb”, he said, and personnel are monitoring the radioactive situation.  He went on to recall that the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that the level of radiation at the power plant is low and does not pose a threat to the population.

*  *  *

Claudia Rosett is widely recognized as a ground-breaking reporter on corruption at the United Nations.

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Barr Trashes Trump, Says GOP Needs To Move On

Former Attorney General William Barr says that Donald Trump is unfit for office, and that the GOP should move on from the former President (the same president who criticized German reliance on Russian energy while a sanctioned Putin didn't lift a finger against Ukraine for four years, but we digress).

According to a new book, Barr says, Trump has "shown he has neither the temperament nor persuasive powers to provide the kind of positive leadership that is needed," and that Republicans should instead focus on rising leaders in the party (DeSantis?) who share Trump's agenda but not his "erratic personal behavior."

As the Wall Street Journal notes;

The release of the former attorney general’s 600-page book, “One Damn Thing After Another,” is coming as Mr. Trump, who remains the GOP’s dominant figure, contemplates another presidential run. Mr. Barr writes that he was convinced that Mr. Trump could have won re-election in 2020 if he had “just exercised a modicum of self-restraint, moderating even a little of his pettiness.”

"The election was not ‘stolen," writes Barr, who says "Trump lost it."

Barr's barbs are unsurprising given the acrimonious relationship between he and Trump - who just last year called his former AG a "disappointment in every sense of the word."

Barr returned to his Bush-era role as head the DOJ in February 2019 after Trump fired former Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), where critics say he sheltered the former president during the DOJ's investigations into Russian interference by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

Prior to the Mueller report, Barr issued his own summary which essentially chalked it up to a nothingburger - enraging Democrats. Barr also presided over the decision to drop the federal case against Trump's former National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn - a move Barr maintains was done to correct what he saw as prosecutorial overreach.

"Predictably our motion to dismiss the charges led to an election-year media onslaught, flogging the old theme that I was doing this as a favor to Trump," writes Barr. "But I concluded the handling of the Flynn matter by the FBI had been an abuse of power that no responsible AG could let stand."

Barr also details a Dec. 1, 2020 meeting in the Oval Office in which he says Trump became enraged after he said there was no evidence of widespread voter fraud that could reverse Joe Biden's victory, contradicting Trump's claims.

"This is killing me—killing me. This is pulling the rug right out from under me," Trump reportedly shouted, before saying "He stopped for a moment and then said, ‘You must hate Trump. You would only do this if you hate Trump.’"

Barr says he reminded Trump that he sacrificed a certain level of personal credibility to "help you when I thought you were being wronged," but that the DOJ (which spent several years plotting against or investigating Trump) simply couldn't find evidence of election fraud.

Trump also slammed Barr for appointing a 'slow' federal prosecutor to look into the origins of the Russia probe, and for not firing former FBI Director James Comey after he was rebuked by the Inspector General's office for leaking memos to the press.

The former AG says that after the election, Trump "lost his grip" and that his constant claims of voter fraud underpinned the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

"The absurd lengths to which he took his ‘stolen election’ claim led to the rioting on Capitol Hill," wrote Barr.

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Morgan Stanley Warns "Tactical Rally" In Stocks Ending In March As "Ice" Narrative Kicks In

By Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US equity strategist

Investing capital can be an exhilarating and humiliating experience. Anyone who has chosen this as a career has experienced both, sometimes in the same week, like the one just past. While the investment landscape is always filled with uncertainties, today’s backdrop seems dotted with more than normal. When faced with such an environment, it’s often helpful to lay out the big factors affecting asset prices and then try to determine what you think you know or can analyze, and what remains hard to determine so it can be properly handicapped – i.e., priced.

For this exercise one can use the Johari window, a tool originally developed by psychologists to help people better understand how they are perceived by others relative to how they perceive themselves. If done openly, it can facilitate better interactions, and communication in particular becomes more effective. This tool was later used by military strategists and became famous after former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s famous speech about known unknowns.

Adapting the known/unknown framework may be useful for investing in the current environment. Last September, we introduced our 'fire and ice' narrative to address some risks we felt were either known unknowns or unknown knowns at the time. The fire narrative was meant to highlight that inflation was unlikely to be transitory and the Fed would have to respond to it in a way that markets were not pricing. The tipoff for us was the Jackson Hole summit in August, which was then confirmed at the September FOMC. From our perspective, this was a known unknown – something we thought we knew but the consensus did not – in contrast to an unknown known, when the consensus knows something and we fail to see it. An example of this last fall was the consensus view that still strong liquidity would offset the Fed pivot. That turned out to be true, at least for the S&P 500, and therefore we were wrong.

At this stage, we would argue the 'fire' (higher inflation = Fed tightening) is now a known known even if it’s not fully priced, in our view. While we do think it may be more fully priced into the bond market, we believe when the Fed actually tightens it will weigh further on equity multiples. In S&P 500 terms that’s still 7% lower for forward P/Es (18x versus the current 19.3x). However, it’s fair to say we’ve made a lot of progress from 21-22x back in mid-November when we published our 2022 outlook.

At the end of January, we turned our attention to the next known unknown – our belief that earnings growth would decelerate more than expected – i.e., the 'ice' in our narrative. Based on our conversations with many investors, this greater deceleration in growth has received even more pushback than our view on the Fed and valuations last fall. Of course that doesn’t mean we are right. To the contrary, we have to ask ourselves whether this is another known unknown (we are right) or an unknown known (the consensus is right).

Obviously, we think our view is correct or else we wouldn’t be propagating it; however, we are always looking for evidence that either supports or refutes it. In fact, we backed off the ice portion of our call last October when we saw little evidence that earnings momentum was slowing. As a result, we pushed the timing of ice out to 1Q. Evidence is now building that earnings forecasts are increasingly at risk. First, the negative-to-positive guidance ratio during 4Q earnings has spiked to 3.6x – the highest since 1Q16, when we were mired in a global manufacturing recession.

At no time during the Covid recession did we see a ratio this high. Earnings revision breadth is also falling fast and approaching negative territory, which leads next-12-months EPS forecasts. Bottom line, we see evidence building that we are right and the consensus is wrong, but it’s fair to say we can’t yet put this in the known unknown box – which also means it’s not yet priced if we’re right.

Finally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine fits into the unknown unknown box, along with most geopolitics. While there are many people who know quite a bit about such matters, geopolitics are very difficult to analyze and therefore very difficult to price. Instead, this invasion simply adds another risk to the mix that’s unlikely to disappear quickly. In a world where valuations remain elevated and earnings risk is rising, last week’s tactical rally in equities will likely run out of momentum in March as the Fed begins to tighten in earnest and the earnings picture deteriorates.

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Russia Central Bank Bans Selling Of Russian Securities By Foreigners

As the west piles sanctions upon sanctions seeking to crush the Russian economy, moments ago Reuters reported that Russia has made sure that at least those foreigners who have invested in Russian capital markets will have to stay for the ride.

According to Reuters, the Russian central bank - which the US and EU decided will be sanctioned and as a result all transactions will be banned - has ordered market players to reject foreign clients' bids to sell Russian securities from 0400 GMT on Monday, according to a central bank document seen by Reuters.

Expect more retaliatory steps by Russia, including the weaponization of its energy exports as the tit-for-tat escalates to an unprecedented degree. And while Russia's actions may be limited in scope in terms of how much damage they can inflict on the west, former NY Fed staffer Zoltan Pozsar has warned that even without direct action from Russia the markets may be facing an unprecedented crisis which approaches the Lehman weekend in scope, or as Bloomberg's Nikos Chrysoloras puts it "We seem to be tailspinning into chaos. I have covered crises before, but nothing comes even close."

 

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Belarus' Lukashenko Says West Is Pushing Russia Into "Third World War"

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko responded to the drastically ratcheting sanctions being slapped on Moscow as the West is increasingly unified behind the move to block Russia's SWIFT access and taking measures against its central bank. He warned Sunday that NATO countries are pushing Russia into a "third world war"

The alarming words came just as Putin placed his nuclear force posture on "high alert" Sunday over what he called “aggressive statements” by NATO top officials. A statement from the United Nations then called the possibility of nuclear conflict "inconceivable".

Via BELTA/Reuters

Lukashenko said in his latest Sunday comments as quoted and translated in regional media: "Now there is a lot of talk against the banking sector. Gas, oil, SWIFT. It's worse than war. This is pushing Russia into a third world war."

He specified that if the West didn't start backing off from these extreme measures, the ending could lead to nuclear conflict. He called for "restraint" in this regard, even though in the past two months of tensions leading up to the war in Ukraine he issued an invitation for Putin to host Russian nukes on Belarusian soil.

"We need to be restrained here so as not to get into trouble. Because nuclear war is the end of everything."

"We have experience. We discussed this theme with Putin more than once. We’ll survive. It is impossible to starve us to death," Lukashenko said.

He vowed that both Belarus and Russia were readying retaliatory measures that he described as being "very tangible" but said Minsk and Moscow would be thinking them over "very carefully". 

But he warned that should the West or NATO countries ever move nuclear weapons into bordering states with Russia, that Moscow will respond in kind - especially by moving nukes into Belarus. Currently, Ukraine and Russia are expected to begin initial talks "without preconditions" near the Belarusian border.

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'The 55 Day Rule' Expires Tomorrow

OptionStrategist.com's Lawrence G. McMillan makes an interesting observation...

Most people don’t realize that the Crash of 1929 and the Crash of 1987 both occurred exactly 55 calendar days after the stock market had topped.

All prices in this article are closing prices on the day being referenced.

1929: the peak in the Dow was reached on September 3rd, when it closed at 381.17.

55 calendar days after September 3rd was (Monday) October 28th. That was the exact date of the Crash of 1929, with the Dow down 40.58 points, or 13.5%.

1987: the Dow topped out at 2722.42 on August 25th.

55 calendar days later was (Monday) October 19th when the Dow collapsed 507.99 points, or 22.6% in one day!

This year, the Dow topped out on January 4th, and...

55 days later is Monday (!) February 28th.

In both 1929 and 1987, there was a sharp market decline in the week preceding the Crash, so that is something else to watch for.

These Crashes just didn’t appear out of thin air.

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UN Reports 368,000 Ukrainian Refugees Have Fled War-Torn Country

The United Nations estimates 368,000 Ukrainian refugees have crossed into neighboring countries, with the bulk ending up in Poland, and others have sought safety in Hungary, Moldova, Romania due to the Russian invasion, and that number appears to be increasing by the day. 

"The number of refugees from Ukraine who have crossed to Poland, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and other countries is escalating and is now 368,000. The governments and people of those countries are welcoming refugees," UN refugee chief Filippo Grandi tweeted on Sunday.

Since Russian forces began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Thursday to "demilitarize" the country, a mass exodus of Ukrainians is underway to escape cities and towns, clogging up highways and railways as people moved westward towards Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. 

The scale of the mass exodus could be the largest seen in years. The UN forecasts with cash, food, and fuel dwindling in Ukraine, as many as 5 million people could flee the country for neighboring ones. It may soon supersede Europe's humanitarian emergency in 2015 when more than a million Syrian, Iraqi, and Afghan refugees entered the continent. 

For now, Central Europe is welcoming Ukrainian refugees with open arms, and Poland is expected to accommodate up to a million new ones. Videos and pictures are circulating on Twitter showing the exodus at multiple border checkpoints between Ukraine and other countries. 

Poland, which has seen the largest influx, pledged their support to refugees. The US Army's 82nd Airborne Division is helping Poland with the inflow of refugees. As the conflict in Ukraine drags on, Europe's welcome mat remains open. 

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White House Asks Congress For $6.4 Billion For Ukraine Crisis

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, 

On Friday, the White House asked Congress for $6.4 billion for military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine and to help US allies in Europe to bolster their security in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

According to Bloomberg, $2.9 billion will go towards security and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, the Baltics, Poland, and other regional countries. The remaining $3.5 billion will go to the Pentagon “to respond to the crisis.”

Getty Images

“In a recent conversation with lawmakers, the administration identified the need for additional US humanitarian, security, and economic assistance to Ukraine and Central European partners due to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion,” a White House Office of Management and Budget official said, according to Reuters.

The total amount could change as the White House and Congress work it out. Some members of Congress think more money needs to be spent. Sen. Chris Coon (D-DE) said the US might need to spend around $10 billion to respond to Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

Over the past year, the US has given Ukraine over $650 million in military aid and $52 million in humanitarian assistance. The Pentagon said Friday it wants to send more weapons to Ukraine and is working out ways to do so.

Ukraine’s defense minister is asking for Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

“We’re continuing to look for ways to support Ukraine to defend themselves,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said. “And we’re very actively engaged in those efforts to help them better defend themselves through both lethal and non-lethal assistance.”

US military aid to Ukraine used to arrive by plane, but the country’s airspace is no longer safe. “The airspace over Ukraine is contested, the Russians don’t have superiority of it, it’s contested,” Kirby said. 

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Musk's Starlink Service Now Active In Ukraine After Russia Invasion Causes Internet Disruptions

Update (1700ET): It appears Elon Musk heard the request and has responded:

We wonder if this will get him an invitation to The White House.

*  *  *

Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, asked SpaceX billionaire Elon Musk for Starlink stations and access to satellite internet as Russia continues its third day of incursions

"@elonmusk, while you try to colonize Mars — Russia try to occupy Ukraine! While your rockets successfully land from space — Russian rockets attack Ukrainian civil people! We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations and to address sane Russians to stand," Fedorov tweeted on Saturday. 

The request for next-generation satellite internet comes as Ukraine's primary internet provider, GigaTrans, reported a widespread outrage on Friday, according to internet blockage observatory NetBlocks.

"We currently observe national connectivity at 87% of ordinary levels, a figure that reflects service disruptions as well as population flight and the shuttering of homes and businesses since the morning of the 24th.

"While there is no nation-scale blackout, little is being heard from the worst affected regions, and for others there's an ever-present fear that connectivity could worsen at any moment, cutting off friends and family," Alp Toker, director of NetBlocks, told Reuters

What's remarkable is to see a top Ukrainian official asking the world's richest man for internet access on Twitter. Musk has yet to respond to the tweet but could be willing to help as he recently sent a team of SpaceX engineers to the tiny Pacific island nation of Tonga to restore internet connectivity after a nearby eruption of a massive volcano severed undersea communications cables.

Twitter users called on the billionaire to support Ukraine and help restore the country's internet. However, it remains to be seen if Musk would get directly involved in picking sides. 

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"Doesn't Really Add Up": Canadian MPs Grill Public Safety Minister On Use Of Emergencies Act

Authored by Noé Chartier via The Epoch Times,

MPs grilled Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino on Feb. 25 at a House committee hearing to examine the public order emergency declared by the government, with some focusing on whether the threshold had been met to call a national emergency, and others looking to find out why the Ottawa occupation lasted so long.

Addressing whether the threshold was met to invoke the Emergencies Act on Feb. 14, Conservative MP and public safety critic Raquel Dancho asked Mendicino if “our safety was in jeopardy with the protests in Ottawa?”

“Well certainly the size, scope, and scale of the illegal blockades at a number of borders and ports of entry, as well as the illegal occupation in Ottawa, met the threshold under the Emergencies Act,” replied Mendicino as he testified before the House of Commons public safety committee.

Large-scale protests in Ottawa, dubbed the “Freedom Convoy,” along with Canada-U.S. border blockades had occurred across the country in recent weeks to demand the lifting of COVID-19 mandates and restrictions. Most of the blockades were cleared before the government invoked the act, and the one in Emerson, Manitoba, dispersed on its own on Feb. 16, so Dancho focused on the Ottawa protest.

“I walked to West Block for two weeks past these protests. If there was such a threat to public safety, how could you have allowed members of Parliament to walk by that protest every day?,” asked Dancho.

Families join the Freedom Convoy protest in downtown Ottawa after police distributed arrest notices to truckers and their supporters occupying Wellington St. and the Parliament Hill area on Feb. 16, 2022. (Richard Moore/The Epoch Times)

‘Insinuations’

Dancho also said Mendicino had previously “insinuated” there were links between the protest organizers in Ottawa and several protesters arrested at the Coutts, Alberta, border who have been charged with conspiracy to commit murder.

“So again, do you believe that there was a threat to public safety in Ottawa?” asked Dancho.

Without directly addressing his own allegation about the links, Mendicino responded that “those aren’t just my insinuations. Hundreds of charges and arrests have been carried out by law enforcement throughout the course of the illegal blockades—not only in Ottawa, but as well as in Alberta and British Columbia.”

Pressed again about the evidence of links, Mendicino said those comments related to “a number of public reports.”

Mendicino said organizers and leaders of the movement have publicly made statements calling for the overthrow of the government with violence and “through the use of bullets.”

The minister was likely referring to Pat King, who in a video posted online and supposedly dated Dec. 16, 2021, said “the only way this is going to be solved is with bullets.” It’s unclear what “this” refers to in the video.

The main organizers of the Freedom Convoy had distanced themselves from King and said their movement is peaceful.

King, who was active in the Ottawa protest, was arrested on Feb. 18 and charged with mischief, counselling to commit mischief, counselling to commit the offence of disobeying a court order, and counselling to obstruct police. He was denied bail on Feb. 25.

“I just don’t understand how you could be saying, on one hand, there’s all these strong ties and this is a national emergency for public safety, and I walked every day by these protests. It just doesn’t really add up at all,” repeated Dancho.

While King has expressed extreme views, the Ottawa protest was peaceful throughout, with multiple dance parties and a children’s area with bouncy castles. But Ottawa residents have also complained about noise due to constant honking and also of harassment.

Crowds of protesters demonstrate against COVID-19 mandates and restrictions in downtown Ottawa on Feb. 12, 2022. (Jonathan Ren/The Epoch Times)

Existing Powers, Additional Powers

Liberal MP Taleeb Noormohamed asked Mendicino why it took so long for the federal government to intervene, and Mendicino defended his government’s efforts by saying it had sent three batches of RMCP reinforcements.

Noormohamed also asked RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki why her organization did not “go in there and clear everything out on the first day in Ottawa.”

Lucki responded that the Ottawa Police Service is responsible for the jurisdiction and that if it needs assistance, then under Ontario’s Police Services Act the first request should go to the Ontario Provincial Police.

NDP MP Alistair MacGregor pressed Mendicino on whether Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson or Ontario Premier Doug Ford had expressly requested that the federal government invoke the Emergencies Act, with both leaders having themselves declared emergencies a few days apart in their respective jurisdictions.

As Mendicino continued to avoid answering directly, MacGregor told him, “With respect, Minister, I just need a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ please.”

Mendicino never provided an answer in the end, only saying that Ottawa and Ontario had expressed challenges dealing with the existing authorities on the issue.

Police confront demonstrators protesting against COVID-19 mandates and restrictions in downtown Ottawa on Feb. 18, 2022. (Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images)

Dancho also questioned department officials on whether the existing powers would have been sufficient to handle the issue without resorting to declaration of a public order emergency.

Samantha Maislin Dickson, assistant deputy minister at Justice Canada, said the question is not whether existing laws are available but whether they are effective.

“And so the determination as I understand that was made, was that the effectiveness of any statute that may have been on the books to potentially deal with it was not available at the time the declaration was issued,” said Dickson.

Talal Dakalbab, assistant deputy minister at Public Safety Canada, said “law enforcement was very satisfied with the additional powers” granted by the act.

These included making it illegal for people to participate in a designated assembly, being able to compel the provision of services (in this case this power was used to force reluctant towing companies to remove the trucks), as well as imposing financial measures, which were used to freeze bank accounts without a court order.

The next steps in reviewing the use of the Emergencies Act will include forming a dedicated parliamentary committee and launching an inquiry into the act’s declaration and the events leading up to its use.

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