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Highly Pathogenic Avian Flu Detected In Five More US States

An outbreak of the deadly strain of bird flu is quickly spreading across the U.S. The risk to humans is low, but bird flu could wreak havoc in the nation's poultry industry ahead of Easter. 

The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced on Wednesday that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was detected in five new states.

  • A non-commercial, mixed-species backyard flock (non-poultry) in Berkshire County, Massachusetts;

  • A non-commercial, mixed-species backyard flock (non-poultry) in Johnson County, Wyoming;

  • commercial poultry flock in Johnston County, North Carolina;

  • A non-commercial, backyard chicken flock (non-poultry) in Franklin County, Ohio;

  • And a backyard chicken flock (poultry) in Kidder County, North Dakota.

According to Bloomberg, USDA data shows the bird flu has been found in 23 states in flocks totaling about 17 million birds up and down Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and across the Midwest. 

On Mar. 21, the official figure for culled chickens and turkeys stood around 12 million. Infected flocks have been culled to mitigate spreading, and USDA has implemented an A.I. surveillance program to look for the disease in commercial poultry operations. 

Since the HPAI spread is recent, there's no telling when it will abate. The last outbreak, in 2015, resulted in the culling of 50 million laying hens across 15 states, pushing the prices of chicken and eggs higher

Ahead of Easter, a dozen of Grade A Eggs are priced around the $2 mark and set to move higher. 

Retail prices are at the highest in five years for springtime. 

Chicken breast prices are at new highs, averaging around $3.81 per pound at U.S. supermarkets.

 Bloomberg reports top foreign buyers of US poultry could soon balk at purchases. 

"Top buyers such as Mexico, China and Cuba could bring in less poultry following the discovery in North Carolina, a major producer of chicken and turkeys," said Jim Sumner, president of the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council in Tucker, Georgia.

The most significant concern is the continued spread of HPAI at commercial poultry farms as wild flocks migrate across the country. This could continue pressuring poultry prices higher that would feed into record-high food inflation.  

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"No Way We Have Enough Agents" - CBP Source Fears "Emergency" At The Border When Biden Admin Ends Title 42

Update (1700ET): Fox News correspondent Hillary Vaughan confirmed, via a brief Twitter thread, that the Biden administration is preparing for the surge in migrants citing a source within CBP who has worked in law enforcement for 20+ years -  who is familiar with the process - who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity - who told her that DHS is bracing for as many as 500,000 migrants in the six weeks following Title 42 being lifted.

Her thread continues:

The CBP source telling me “If half a million people come in one month - that’s an emergency. There is no way we have enough federal agents and NGO’s and NGA’s. There’s not enough people going around. It’s literally going to be a revolving door. Getting people in - getting people out.”

CBP source says DHS is trying to figure out how to get enough medical personnel to provide the COVID vaccines the Biden administration promised migrants - as well as staff to handle any medical issues many migrants will have.

One idea being floated: pulling medical personnel from Veterans Affairs to assist “We’re going to take medical services away from people that really deserve that. Who went to combat…to give free medical attention to illegal migrants” CBP source tell me.

This CBP source tells me that due to the wave of migrants they are expecting after Title 42 lifts - Biden Admin is looking at doing NTA’s (notices to appear) with “minimal biometric data and vetting” to expedite processing.

This CBP source tells me that could mean skipping critical paperwork and vetting that would confirm they have the right name and date of birth for the person entering.

A CBP source tells me the Biden Admin is also looking at deploying a smart app for migrants to use to submit to pre-screening. There is talk of expanding the “CBP1 App” for migrants so they can submit pre-screening prior to approaching a point-of-entry.

This source telling me the “CBP1 app was originally devised to make it easier for known travelers to enter and go across the border…it’s now being thought of to use as an easy way for folks to get in”

CBP source tells me the Biden administration is preparing for double the number of migrants that came in 2021 - in the year after Title 42 lifts - “I would say its conservative to say double what came in last year”

Does anyone else think this sounds like yet another opportunity for the Biden administration to shoot itself in the foot ahead of the Midterms?

*  *  *

As The Epoch Times' Mimi Nguyen Ly detailed earlier,  The White House was asked on Wednesday to comment on a report that said the Biden administration is expected to end a Trump-era immigration policy, known as Title 42.

The Title 42 policy implemented under the Trump administration in March 2020 enabled border agents to expel illegal immigrants back to Mexico immediately if they potentially pose a health risk amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

On Thursday, the Associated Press reported, citing anonymous sources, that the Biden administration, which has continued the policy, is expected to end it by May 23.

White House director of communications Kate Bedingfield was asked by a reporter whether the administration is “prepared to deal with the aftermath of ending Title 42 and the expected influx of migrants.”

Bedingfield did not confirm the AP report. She responded that the decision as to whether the administration would end Title 42 is “not an immigration or migration enforcement measure” but a “public health directive.”

“So the decision on when to lift Title 42 we defer to the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)],” she said.

The CDC is currently weighing up whether or not it will end Title 42 policy, and has until March 30 to complete its review.

Border Patrol agents apprehend a group of Cubans and Venezuelans that just waded across the Rio Grande from Mexico into Eagle Pass, Texas, on Jan. 25, 2022. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

‘Influx of People to the Border’

She continued, “That being said, of course we are planning for multiple contingencies, and we have every expectation that when the CDC ultimately decides it’s appropriate to lift Title 42, there will be an influx of people to the border.”

Bedingfield said the administration is “doing a lot of work to plan for the contingency.” She noted that on Tuesday the Department of Homeland Security held a briefing to review the plans it has to prepare for a potential spike in illegal immigrants at the border.

“So you heard from them yesterday on some of the planning that they’re doing more broadly—now, not specifically tied to Title 42 or an ultimate decision to lift it, but just more broadly to the work that they’re doing to continue to build up our migration system and ensure that we are restoring order at the border.”

DHS officials told reporters on Tuesday of contingency plans which include a scenario in which up to 18,000 border crossings could be seen per day. Currently, Border Patrol is seeing about 7,100 illegal immigrants a day.

“We need to be prepared for what we’re considering a potential contingency, which is that the lifting of Title 42 could increase flows,” a senior DHS official told reporters during the background briefing, multiple outlets reported.

The DHS on Wednesday released a fact sheet titled “DHS Preparations for a Potential Increase in Migration.” Without citing Title 42, the department noted “unprecedented levels of migration” to the border and that it is “implementing a comprehensive strategy to address a potential increase in the number of border encounters.”

Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz said on March 29 that the United States is on track to hit a million illegal alien encounters at the U.S.–Mexico border in the fiscal year 2022. The United States logged over 2 million illegal immigrant arrests in 2021.

Previously, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) led a group of Republican senators in issuing a letter (pdf) to DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on March 24, urging the department to prepare in case Title 42 is lifted by the CDC. They said Title 42 is an “effective deterrent to illegal border crossings” and that lifting it would threaten to overwhelm the “already strained immigration system” and will exacerbate the situation at the border.

Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) also expressed concerns, writing in a March 24 letter (pdf) to President Joe Biden that the administration should, before making changes to Title 42, coordinate a “comprehensive plan that ensures a secure, orderly, and humane process at the border.”

The two Arizona senators on Wednesday discussed with Mayorkas about the prospect of ending Title 42 and the effects on local communities in the state if there is no plan to handle the influx of illegal immigrants. Sinema called for DHS to coordinate communications between federal, state, local, and non-governmental partners to strengthen cooperation, a strategy Mayorkas agreed to.

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"[We All] Hope Clarence Thomas Dies": UCLA Faces New Free Speech Controversy Over Social Media Posting

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

UCLA is facing a new free speech controversy after its Director of Race and Equity, Jonathan Perkins, tweeted that he (like many) hoped Justice Clarence Thomas would die rather than recover from his recent illness. UCLA recently disciplined a student for controversial statements, but has stood by the right of Perkins to express such hateful viewpoints. Ironically, Perkins’ office has long posted anti-free speech positions to justify censorship and speech codes.

Perkins is a lawyer (with a J.D. from the University of Virginia) and previously worked in the General Counsel’s office of Harvard University.

When news spread of the hospitalization of Thomas, Perkins declared “No one wants to openly admit [we all] hope Clarence Thomas dies. Whatever you need to tell yourselves.” He further referred to objections to wishing death upon others as “silly” while adding a racist attack: “Uncle Thomas is a sexist token who’s committed himself to making us all share in he and his treasonous wife’s misery,”

Anna Spain Bradley, Vice Chancellor for Equity, Diversity and Inclusion at UCLA, publicly stated that “this tweet does not reflect my or UCLA EDI’s views.”

It was a mild statement to be sure but I still support the right of Perkins and other faculty and students in being able to speak freely on social media. This was a personal viewpoint expressed outside of the school.

However, that was not the approach taken by UCLA in other controversies. Last year, UCLA athlete Chris Weiland was dismissed from the cross country and track & field team after video of him making racist, sexist and homophobic comments appeared on social media. The comments were overheard as Weiland spoke with his mother. 

Avery Anderson, UCLA’s Director of Track and Field and Cross Country reinstated Weiland after a suspension, but then protests led to his dismissal.

UCLA’s Black Student-Athletes Alliance issued a statement that:

“UCLA knew about an incident of blatant racism, homophobia and sexism and did very minimal actions about it. … We do not feel safe with this person on campus, and we demand UCLA athletics take action immediately and remove this student from the team.”

Anderson responded to this and other objections by reversing her decision:

“It became clear that his continued involvement with the team is incompatible with the culture of mutual support and respect we’re fostering. I now realize that the decision to reinstate him was not the right decision, and that the action today is best for the well-being of our team.”

UCLA professors have also been subject to investigations and protests over their private speech or class policies that were denounced as racist. One professor is currently suing UCLA.

There are no such protests or actions taken over the hateful and racist comments of Perkins.

Notably, Perkins’ office espouses distinctly anti-free speech sentiments and calls classic defenses of free speech “myths.”

Myth Busting

Many hold such views of the “myths of free speech” but this is a public university declaring that such views are myths. The official UCLA view that “free speech is [not] everything” and “censorship is [not] a One-Way Street” would not be supported by many citizens, particularly free speech advocates.

When it comes to Perkins, however, free speech will (correctly) protect him.

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GME Soars 20% After Announcing Stock Split

After first Amazon, then Tesla saw their stock prices surge in recent weeks following stock split announcements - which incidentally do absolutely nothing for the intrinsic value of the actual company and merely demonstrate just how broken the market is  - moments ago the original meme stonk, Gamestop, decided to squeeze shorts for the second time in the past two weeks...

... the first time coming right around the time novelty chairman Ryan Cohen bought 100,000 shares a week ago...

... when the retailer (whose core business is more or less worthless) announced it plans to implement a stock split through a dividend, a brilliant ruse by the management team which is far more focused on financial engineering and how to create stock squeezes than actually running the mostly worthless company.

Specifically, GME said it looks to boost the number of authorized shares to 1 billion from 300 million, and since that means that the average price per share will drop by 3.333 - which will somehow make the stock cheaper or more appetizing to the apes - GME stock is up about 20% after hours...

... and adding to the idiocy, its meme stock comp, AMC, is also up about 10% after hours because this is clearly the dumbest of all timelines.

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Deutsche Bank Execs Fired For Expensing Strip Club Trip Lost Millions In Deferred Compensation

The senior Deutsche Bank executives who were unceremoniously fired earlier this year after management learned that they had tried to expense a roughly $1,000 receipt from a trip to a NYC strip club will lose out on a combined $6 million in deferred compensation, according to the New York Post.

According to the Post, the bankers partied at Sapphire New York, a strip club on the Upper East Side that also operates a steakhouse (which offers a $25 "body sushi" menu item where patrons can eat raw fish off a stripper's torso). While the three senior bankers who were ultimately canned over the episode insisted that the check was from the steakhouse, not the strip club, one unnamed junior banker who had been along for the ride ultimately confessed to management - and was spared the axe for his honesty.

Sources inside the bank told the Post that the bank's decision to keep the junior employee who spilled the beans was intended to emphasize the fact that it wasn't the crime, but the cover up.

"It really was about the coverup and the deception," the source said. "The coverup was worse than the crime."

One DB spokesman said in a statement that "Deutsche Bank thoroughly investigates allegations of possible misconduct comprehensively and without bias. We do not condone violations of our Code of Conduct or Company Policy and take remedial action as appropriate based on the severity of circumstances. The Bank declines to comment further on the circumstances of this particular matter."

As for the millions of dollars in compensation that the employees lost, at DB (and indeed at most investment banks), bonuses for top employees (typically a mix of stock and cash) are typically deferred for several years while they vest. The point of this practice is to tie top employees to the long-term performance of the firm by withholding at least some of their annual bonus compensation. When a worker is fired for cause, he loses all the deferred compensation he has accrued.

For two of the fired bankers (head of equity capital markets Ben Darsney and the managing director Ravi Raghunathan, responsible for running the bank's SPAC business) These figures were substantial.

But there's one silver lining: the loss of their bonuses means the men might have an easier time finding a new job on the Street, since their comparative compensation figures will be lower. The word on the street is that they will all find a new home by the summer.

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Daily Briefing: Will Crude Oil Constraints Continue To Drive Inflation?

President Joe Biden announced a plan to release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next six months as part of the federal government’s effort to fight inflation. Releasing 180 million barrels from the SPR is an unprecedented step. But it’s unclear whether it will have a meaningful impact on oil prices. Earlier Thursday, OPEC+ ratified a 432,000 barrel per day production increase as of May, but that increase is in line with the cartel’s plan; it is not responding to oil consumers’ calls for significant output boosts. Oil investors everywhere seem to be holding the line for only gradual production increases, despite the ongoing crisis in Eastern Europe. Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy at TD Securities, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss the global crude oil market, current constraints on production and supply, and inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IV7RbE

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Xi's "Maradona Theory" Of Policy Making Needs Tweak

By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

Five weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European stocks have fully recouped their losses and their U.S. counterparts have done even better. In contrast, benchmarks in mainland China and Hong Kong are sitting on the bottom of the performance-ranking table along with Russia, Sri Lanka and Latvia.

Soothing words from Chinese policy makers have stopped the panic. But it will require decisive actions for markets to dig themselves out of the hole. Simply following the “Maradona Theory” of policy making to manage expectations isn’t enough.

Oil tumbled, equities rallied and inflation expectations ebbed Tuesday as the latest round of Russia-Ukraine talks sparked optimism that there’s a path toward peace. It’s far from certain that a cease-fire is within reach or that sanctions will be rolled back. Still, it seems that risk premium stemming from the war has been fading across markets.

Except, of course, for Chinese equities. The CSI 300 Index remains down about 11% down since the war started. The fear that sanctions against Russia may somehow embroil China may be exaggerated, but rolling lockdowns due to Covid outbreaks also are taking a toll on the economy.

Almost all high-frequency activity data tracked by Nomura point to a worsening slowdown in recent weeks. For instance, the average movie box-office revenue in the week through March 26 was 63% below the year-ago levels. The weekly shipment-to-output ratio for cement was down 54% from a year ago, and weekly new-home sales across 30 cities have halved.

Since Vice Premier Liu He and his colleagues at the Financial Stability and Development Committee vowed to stabilize capital markets two weeks ago, actions to counter the slowdown have been conspicuously missing. It’s as if Beijing is a loyal follower of the “Maradona Theory.”

That theory stems from a speech in 2005, when then-Bank of England Governor Mervyn King cited a spectacular solo goal scored by Diego Maradona at the 1986 World Cup to show how a central bank can reach its goal by simply guiding expectations, without actually moving interest rates. The Argentinian legend dumbfounded five English players to score despite running in a straight line. King’s point was that England’s defense expected Maradona to swerve, so he didn’t have to. Likewise, if investors expect the central bank to adjust policies, markets will react accordingly, and the bank doesn’t have to act.

The crucial element backing the theory is policy makers’ credibility. Managing expectations is part of modern finance. But at this point, the Chinese economy needs Beijing to throw its weight behind its words, including accelerating infrastructure spending and credit growth, easing borrowing costs, and supporting small business affected by lockdowns.

The longer it waits, the more likely Beijing scores an “own goal” instead.

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"Cannibal" Coronal Mass Ejection Detected By NASA, Will Hit Earth Tonight

Powerful geomagnetic storms are set to hit Earth's magnetic field Wednesday night into early Thursday after the sun ejected nearly 20 solar flares from an Earth-facing single sunspot in recent days. 

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), a division of NOAA, said a strong geomagnetic storm (rated 3 out of 5) is expected to peak in the early morning hours of Thursday. 

The eruptions on the sun originated Monday from a superactive sunspot called AR2975, expelling as many as 17 flares. SpaceWeather warns "at least two, possibly three, coronal mass ejections (CMEs)" are headed to Earth. 

When one CME slams into Earth's magnetic field and another one follows, that's known as a "cannibal CME" and can result in "tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that can spark strong geomagnetic storms" according to SpaceWeather, meaning that the dazzling northern lights will be seen closer to the equator than usual.

"Because these two have merged together or are merging together, that's often an indication that the CME will be a bit stronger. It's more stuff coming.

"Also, it means that there's a better chance that the magnetic field will disturb the Earth's magnetic field," said Alex Young, a solar astrophysicist at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Young said this CME activity was also accompanied by a "solar tsunami" (also known as an EIT wave, so named for its discovery using the EUV Imaging Telescope), a shock wave that typically indicates an energetic CME. Satellite data show the shock wave propagating across the sun. -WaPo

Northern light sightings are possible for Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, and Massachusetts. 

SWPC has warned of a "shortwave radio blackout over the Americas." They pointed to a blackout map that engulfed much of the Western Hemisphere. 

None of this should be surprising as Sunspot Cycle 25 has already begun and is expected to be an active one could be terrible news for the digital economy as disruptions sparked by geomagnetic storms create economic damage. Because it's a "cannibal CME," more potential energy could spark a rather powerful geomagnetic storm. 

Last month, Elon Musk's satellite internet service Starlink lost 40 satellites after a geomagnetic storm knocked them out of orbit. The question for Starlink customers is if they can still maintain a downlink during tonight's storm. 

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The Global Rush To Own Gold Has Only Just Begun

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Judging by the action in gold over the last two days, one might assume that rate hikes have been implemented (and worked) and that Russia and Ukraine have declared a cease-fire.

Neither of those things have happened and so (it’ll come as zero surprise to my readers) that I found the nearly $70 peak-to-trough sell off in gold over the last two days to be misguided.

I added exposure to gold with some GLD calls yesterday (yes, I know it is paper gold and a claim to physical that may not exist, I just wanted speculative options exposure) with the equity trading at about $177.75.

The slams lower in gold are as predictable as they are irrational.


Following a melt up/short squeeze in the equity markets over the last two days, ostensibly due to positive sounding cease-fire talks that I am still skeptical of and wrote about this week and last (here and here), gold sold off by about $70 within the course of less than two trading sessions.

The combination of the Fed finally embracing rate hikes and the Russia/Ukraine conflict potentially slowing down has the market thinking that safe havens may not be necessary going forward.

This perception that gold is trading on is far from the reality of the situation. As we just learned this morning, Russia has said “nothing very promising” has taken place in peace talks so far, and the Fed hasn’t even begun to approach the problem of inflation yet.

Regardless of whether or not there is eventually a cease-fire or Russia decides to back off the gas in Ukraine, it doesn’t mean that the economic sanctions that have been put in place against the country are going to be withdrawn. These sanctions have forced Russia and China to cross the Rubicon, in my opinion, where it appears to me that Russia and China may challenge the U.S. dollar and that Russia is trying to back the ruble with gold.

This isn’t going to change anytime soon, regardless of whether or not the physical conflict in Ukraine continues.

And there was a lot of bluster yesterday from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who said that he was “open to the idea of more aggressive rate hikes” and that the “U.S. can avoid a recession”. It was the usual line of bullshit from someone at the Fed: lots of confident-sounding lip on how to quell inflation, but little action.

The truth is we have only seen one 25 bps hike (which should have been a 50 bps hike). Real rates are still drifting between -6% and -8%. This is about as bullish of a scenario for gold as you can possibly get, and it isn’t going away anytime soon. Real rates are going to remain negative for the foreseeable future. If they don’t, it means that the Fed has raised rates so high that we’re going to have a massive debt crisis, which will then eventually become systemic, forcing people back into gold as a sovereign debt crisis safe haven, after they first sell it in a rush to deleverage.


The truth is that I think the gold rush has only just begun. 

Watching one major selloff like we saw on Monday was fine with me – I chalked it up to regular market gyrations. But once gold made a $70 dive in the course of less than two trading sessions, I had to pull the trigger on some speculation.

I’m not sure what the gold market is perceiving when it comes to the world of macro, but whatever it is, it certainly stands at odds with my analysis that both key outstanding risks - Russia and inflation - lead back to gold moving higher.

In the case of Russia, I expect permanent changes to the way the country conducts business globally (i.e. sells oil and natural gas) that will be bullish for gold.

With regard to inflation, I think the Fed will hike until the market crashes at some point this year. It’ll then be forced to retake a dovish stance on monetary policy, while hoping that CPI starts to turn slightly lower so that they can claim victory in the face of perversely negative real rates. A situation like this, in my opinion, isn’t just the likeliest outcome for how the inflation problem will be dealt with, it is also the most bullish scenario for gold.

No matter what, it feels to me like a new, bifurcated global economy waits in the wings and that it is only a matter of time before gold once again gets the starting nod to do what it does best: preserve wealth, store value and help act as sound money.

If you enjoyed today’s piece and have the means to support Fringe Finance, I’d be honored to have you as a subscriber: Subscribe now


Disclaimer: I am long gold and miners seven ways from Sunday. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities. I own or will own all names I mentioned or linked to in this piece. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I get shit wrong a lot.

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UN Establishes War Crimes Tribunal To Probe Russian Actions In Ukraine

Starting two weeks ago Joe Biden began using the label "war crimes" to describe Putin's actions and that of this military, a charge the US president repeated this past weekend while visiting Ukrainian refugees and American troops in Poland. Of course, this has also been echoed among some European allies as well, particularly the United Kingdom, which has established its own legal probe.

On Wednesday the United Nations formally established a war crimes investigative tribunal, naming three human rights experts to initiate a probe into Russia's military actions in Ukraine, amid allegations of "indiscriminate" bombardment of civilians and other acts of aggression toward non-combatants. 

What's been dubbed an "independent" panel is to be led by  Erik Mose of Norway, and tasked with looking into human rights abuses "in the context of the aggression against Ukraine by the Russian Federation," according to a statement.

It's expected to issue a report of initial findings in September. Reuters profiles lead investigator Mose as "a former judge of the European Court of Human Rights and former president of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda who also served as a judge on Norway's Supreme Court."

The southern port of Mariupol in particular has been devastated after falling to Russian forces, but enduring weeks of a siege without access to electricity and water, and in some instances food as well. It's expected to be high on the list of places where Russian military operations will be examined. 

It was on March 16 that President Biden first said, "I think he is a war criminal," which followed a speech at the White House. According to CNN at the time

    The shift from the administration's previous stance came after an emotional address to Congress from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who aired a video showing Ukrainians suffering amid Russia's onslaught. Zelensky asked American lawmakers and Biden for more help defending itself, including a no-fly zone and fighter jets.

    Biden has since upped the rhetoric even more, in the last days using words like "butcher" and "murderous dictator" and "thug" - to which Russia has responded by warning it's on the brink of severing all formal diplomatic relations. The Kremlin also appears reluctant to respond in kind, seeing in the personal attack on Putin the potential for unnecessary tit-for-tat leading to a dangerous confrontation.

    The Kremlin has meanwhile complained that the West has by and large completely overlooked crimes against pro-Russian civilians in the Donbas region going back to 2014. Russia has also alleged during the current military "special operation" that Ukrainian civilians deemed "Russia sympathizers" have in some instances been tortured and even killed, especially by groups like the neo-Nazi Azov battalion. 

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    Daily Briefing: What's Wrong With the Yen, and Why Is It Important?

    The Japanese yen, long a safe haven, is not reacting to crisis this time around the way it has in the past. In fact, the yen just broke through a key long-term level of technical support and is trading at six-year lows versus the U.S. dollar. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to defend the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, in place to sustain accommodative monetary policy, despite broader risks to the domestic situation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake to assess the global implications of the country’s continuing efforts to stimulate growth in the world’s third-largest economy. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the impact of tighter policy on the housing market, and the employment situation in the U.S. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36Zk3uw

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    Matt Gaetz Enters Hunter Biden Laptop Data Into Congressional Record

    Authored by Ken Silva via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    “I seek unanimous consent to enter into the record on this committee the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop, which I am in possession of.”

    Hunter Biden walks to Marine One on the Ellipse outside the White House in Washington on May 22, 2021. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

    This request from Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) briefly brought the House Judiciary Committee to a standstill March 29, before chairman Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) relented and allowed the laptop data to become congressional record—archiving the business deals, pornographic images, and illicit data said to be on the infamous hard drive.

    Gaetz’s surprise move followed a heated exchange with Bryan Vorndran, the assistant director of the FBI’s cyber division. The Florida representative asked numerous questions about the Hunter Biden laptop, only to have Vorndran profess ignorance to each one.

    “In December 2019, they turned over the laptop to the FBI. And now you’re telling me as FBI’s assistant director of cyber, you don’t know where this is after it was turned over to you three years ago?” Gaetz asked.

    “Yes sir, that’s an accurate statement,” Vorndran responded.

    Gaetz said he found Vorndran’s response shocking. The FBI official argued that investigations into the laptop are not his responsibility.

    Gaetz then asked whether anyone within the FBI’s cyber division has assessed whether Hunter Biden’s laptop has created a security vulnerability for the country.

    “We can do this back and forth for the next couple of minutes. I don’t have any information about the Hunter Biden laptop,” Vorndran said.

    Gaetz pressed further: “But should you? You’re the assistant director of the FBI’s cyber division,”

    Vorndran said that, according to FBI HR flowcharts, no he should not have any information. But he also declined to say who within the FBI would.

    Gaetz asked if the FBI would brief Congress on the laptop. Vorndran said he’d relay the request, but was non-committal as to whether a briefing will happen.

    “Is Congress worthy of such a briefing?” Gaetz asked, referring to Vorndran as the Chris Webber of the FBI—a reference to a basketball player who made a mistake that cost his team the NCAA championship.

    “So you don’t have it, you don’t know who has it, you don’t know where it is. Earlier this hearing, you were talking about whether you were the Grant Hill or Christian Laetner of the FBI,” Gaetz said. “It sounds like you’re the Chris Webber, trying to call time outs when you don’t have any.

    Vorndran appeared to be short of temper by the end of the interchange.

    “I’m not going to answer that question!” the FBI official said in response to Gaetz’s repeated requests for a briefing. “The invitation says, ‘oversight of the FBI’s cyber division.’”

    Gaetz then silenced the chamber when he asked to enter the laptop’s contents into the congressional record. Only murmurs could be heard as chairman Nadler consulted with a staffer.

    “We will object, pending further investigation,” Nadler said.

    “What’s the basis for objection?” Gaetz asked.
    “It’s a unanimous consent request, and I object,” Nadler responded. “It may very well be entered into the record after we look into it further.”

    About 10 minutes later, after another representative questioned Vorndran, Gaetz again motioned to enter the laptop contents into the record.

    “After consultation with majority staff, I seek unanimous consent to enter into this committee content from, files from, and copies from Hunter Biden’s laptop,” he said.

    This time, no one objected. Gaetz was also allowed to enter the receipt Hunter Biden allegedly signed at the Mac store.

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    Chris Rock Gets Last Laugh As Tickets For Next Stand-Up Performance Jump 10x

    On Sunday, Will Smith made the Oscars incredibly uncomfortable after he smacked the living daylights out of Chris Rock on stage for making a joke about the lack of hair his wife has.

    "Jada, I love you," Rock said before joking, "G.I. Jane 2, can't wait to see it!"

    Rock might be getting the last laugh as ticket prices for his upcoming shows have gone parabolic, according to ticketing site, TickPick. 

    On Monday, TickPick tweeted, "We sold more tickets to see Chris Rock overnight than we did in the past month combined."

    TickPick's public relations representative Kyle Zorn tweeted that Rock's upcoming performance at Boston's Wilbur Theater on Wednesday saw ticket prices for the cheapest seats jump from $46 to $411, nearly a 10x increase since the slapping incident.

    Commenting on Zorn's tweet, many folks said: "drama sells." 

    "This was a ploy by Big Comedy to drive up ticket prices. Wake up Sheeple," one person said

    Another person said, "Black men helping other black men make money." 

    All press is good press, and Rock is standing to make a killing from the greatest slap television has ever seen (so far). 

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    Illinois Governor Invested In Company With $2.6 Billion In State Contracts

    Authored by Adam Andrzejewski via RealClear Policy,

    Amid the national debate over whether members of Congress should be able to trade stock, the governor of Illinois is demonstrating how prevalent conflicts of interest are for elected officials who own securities.

    In 2020, Gov. JB Pritzker’s trust bought stock in the health insurance company Centene Corp. That same year, Illinois gave $2.6 billion worth of Medicaid contracts to Centene Corp.

    An investigation by the Better Government Association, a nonprofit Illinois watchdog, uncovered these interesting investments. Even though Pritzker’s investments are in a blind trust, which means that Pritzker is not privy to investment decisions, they demonstrate why blind trusts can’t prevent conflicts of interest.

    Each year, Pritzker receives a copy of his current investments from his fund managers, which have the potential to influence the state contracting process.

    Pritzker, a member of the family that owns the Hyatt Hotel dynasty, has a net worth of $3.6 billion, according to Forbes.

    During his 2018 campaign, he pledged to purge his investment portfolio of companies that held state contracts, according to the report.

    However, in 2020, his portfolio managers invested in Centene Corp., one of Illinois’ largest Medicaid contractors, according to the association’s report. While not illegal, the association’s experts say Pritzker could have instructed his trust managers not to invest in state contractors to eliminate the potential for a conflict of interest.

    Pritzker and his trust managers refuse to disclose how much the investments are worth nor when the investments were made. All that has been disclosed so far is that his stake in Centene Corp is worth over $5,000, according to his Statement of Economic Interest form filed with the state.

    These investments should serve as a wake-up call for investment reform for public officials. Public servants should be transparent when it comes to investing.

    The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com.

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    Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Has Officially "Retired" From Activist Short-Selling

    As the SEC under Gary Gensler looks to crack down on activist investors (using the bizarre argument that high-profile activists operate with an unfair advantage to the rest of the market because they have advance knowledge of their own campaigns), one of America's most visible activist investors, Bill Ackman, announced Tuesday that his firm Pershing Square had officially "retired" from activist short-selling.

    Ackman wrote in the firm's annual report, released Tuesday, that in recent years, Pershing Square has bolstered its returns by focusing on "quieter" investment strategies, like its winning bet on Chipotle Mexican Grill, instead of the "noisy" bets against companies like Pershing Square's infamous losing bet against Herbalife, which involved a significant amount of conflict and publicity (including the now-infamous confrontation between Ackman and Herbalife bull Carl Icahn).

    In reality, years have passed since Pershing Square has gone on the activist offensive against a given target. Ackman said in the letter that Pershing has pursued this approach only a couple of times - with disastrous results in each instance.

    More recently, Pershing Square has focused on "quiet" and "constructive" long bets on companies like CMG, RBI and Starbucks - bets that bolstered the firm's reputation as a "constructive, long-term, and helpful owner."

    Ackman said this approach is an integral part of "Pershing Square 3.0".

    When we consider our history of corporate engagement, we have previously described two Pershing Square eras: (1) the initial period from our inception as Pershing Square 1.0 or “transactional activism,” where we invested in undervalued companies in which we were able to create substantial shareholder value by catalyzing corporate events like spinoffs, strategic asset or corporate transactions, and/or changes in tax or corporate structure, and (2) Pershing Square 2.0, beginning with our investment in General Growth Properties, where we joined the board of directors and helped to create shareholder value from the perspective and influence of an insider.

    In the last year or so, some of our investors have asked whether our approach has changed again as they perceive us to be a “quieter” investor. They note that it has been about five years since our last proxy contest, and we have had only positive, constructive engagements with our portfolio companies in as many years.

    Following a punishing three-year stretch of losses between 2015 and 2017 driven by the firm's disastrous bet on Valeant Pharmaceuticals and its failed short against Herbalie, Pershing Square has turned things around, becoming one of the industry's best-performing hedge funds (particularly in the wake of the COVID pandemic, which saw Ackman and his firm reap billions of dollars in profits off some well-timed bets against the credit market that earned the firm a cool $70 billion payday).

    In 2019, Pershing Square saw a nearly 60% return, roughly doubling that of the S&P 500. In 2020, Pershing Square generated a 70% return thanks to its bets against the market, which generated proceeds that Ackman used to buy the dip. And last year, the firm continued with its spate of stellar gains, booking returns of 26.9%.

    Pershing has continued to hedge its long bets on equities, allowing it to outperform the S&P 500; so far, it's down just 2.2% on the year, handily outperforming the S&P 500. 

    The firm broke down its bets in the table below (which doesn't factor in the performance fees).

    As far as new positions go, Pershing bought the dip in Netflix, a company that Ackman says the firm has "long admired". While sell-side analysts question Netflix's scope for growth, Ackman posited that current subscribers amount to less than 25% of today’s estimated total addressable market of 800 million to 900 million households that have either fixed broadband access or subscribe to Pay TV.

    The note also included a 'greatest hits' review of Pershing's biggest bets since inception.

    Ackman's belated "retirement" announcement elicited some snarky comments on Twitter, as users remembered Ackman's 'hell is coming' proclamation that presaged the market ructions in March 2020.

    Readers can find the full annual report below:

    Pershing Square Annual Report by Joseph Adinolfi on Scribd

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    Adam Schiff Says "Kremlin" A Lot

    Authored by Matt Taibbi and Matt Orfalea via TK News Substack,

    As additions to last week’s piece, “The Media Campaign to Protect Joe Biden Passes the Point of Absurdity,” TK’s Matt Orfalea spliced together two more montages.

    A California congressman discovers a new favorite word, while the CIA's former Chief of Staff auditions to become MSNBC's next super-anchor

    The first, “Adam Schiff Says ‘Kremlin’ a Lot,” is self-explanatory, but no less damning.

    The California congressman came out of the womb spouting Cold War bromides, and since the beginning of the Trump presidency surpassed even all Russians as the most Russia-focused person on earth. Usually, public figures are taught in Basic Media Training to push out three planned messages per TV appearance irrespective of questions asked. The House Intelligence Chair during the laptop fiasco whittled his message down to an impressive single word: “Kremlin!”

    [ZH: As this post was published, we came across this tweet that is worth the price of admission...]

    *  *  *

    The second video, “Russia Russia Russia,” shows former CIA Chief of Staff Jeremy Bash hammering the message about the laptop looking like a “classic Russian playbook disinformation campaign.”

    Bash, a signatory to the original “group letter” denouncing the laptop story as having the “classic earmarks of a Russian information operation,” joins the likes of John Brennan, James Clapper, Chuck Rosenberg, Michael Hayden, Frank Figliuzzi, Fran Townsend, Stephen Hall, Samantha Vinograd, Andrew McCabe, Josh Campbell, Asha Rangappa, Phil Mudd, James Gagliano, Jeremy Bash, Susan Hennessey, Ned Price, Rick Francona, Michael Morell, John McLaughlin, John Sipher, Thomas Bossert, Clint Watts, James Baker, Mike Baker, Daniel Hoffman, Susan Rice, Ben Rhodes, David Preiss, and Evelyn Farkas as former intelligence or counterintelligence officials who’ve gotten paid on-air contributor jobs, in case you were worried the CIA and FBI were not able to get their message across to the public. Here’s Matt’s (as usual) on-target rip on MSNBC:

    *  *  *

    Subscribe to TK News by Matt Taibbi

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    WTI Extends Rebnound Above $105 After Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

    Oil ended lower on the day at settlement, but staged a big comeback intraday from the plunge triggered by reports of Putin's peace talks optimism (according to the top Russian negotiator, the talks were "constructive" but they still ended with no agreement whatsoever). U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinkin expressed skepticism about Russia’s promise to de-escalate its military activities around Kyiv.

    “There is what Russia says and there is what Russia does,” he told reporters.

    Fears over Shanghai's lockdown and the knock-on effects on demand (could lower oil demand by as much as 200,000 barrels a day for the duration of the restrictions) also weighed on oil prices as WTI tumbled back below $100 briefly intraday before ripping back up to $105 by the close.

    “We are still in a $100 environment, no question,” said Paul Sankey of Sankey Research on Bloomberg Television. China’s continuing lockdowns are also relieving some pressure, but markets remain volatile, he said. “China is taking heat out of the market, but if the heat comes back, that adds $10” a barrel.

    For now, all eyes on Cushing stocks (rebuilding) and if any demand concerns show up in the inventory data...

    API

    • Crude -3.00mm (-1.588mm exp)

    • Cushing -1.061mm

    • Gasoline -1.357mm

    • Distillates -215k

    Cushing stood out as it flipped back to a draw after two weekly builds in a row, but Crude (bigger than expected) and products all saw inventory draws too...

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI hovered around $105 ahead of the API data and lifted modestly after.,.,.

    “Fundamental traders and investors have taken their chips off the table in crude due to extremely high volatility, leaving the primary players in the market to be traders looking to hedge geopolitical risks,” said Rebecca Babin,senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. 

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    One Bank Spots Powerful Selloff Trigger Hidden Within Historic Market Divergence

    Remember when Zoltan Pozsar said one month ago that Powell has to crash the market in order to spark the recession he so desperately needs to finally contain inflation? He may not have long to wait according to the latest note from Bank of America's derivatives team...

    Bear markets produce the most vicious rallies - recall the relentless facerippers of Oct/Nov 2008 or March 2020 - and indeed, over the last two weeks, the S&P has produced one of its sharpest rallies in history. As shown below, the recent 10-day ramp ranks in the 98th %ile of bear market rallies and in the 99.5th %ile of non-bear market rallies

    The recent rally has also surpassed the largest 10-day returns in 7 of the S&P’s 11 bear markets since 1927 and was actually larger than any of those bear market rallies when controlling for the size of the prevailing max drawdown.

    This historic bear market rally is "Not explained by fundamentals" according to BofA, and is taking place despite what the bank's derivatives strategists note is clearly weaker macro fundamentals (more hikes, higher inflation, and curve inversion) and the Fed leaning against equity market strength to hike faster (i.e., the birth of the short "Fed call", the opposite of the bullish Fed put).

    Some numbers: the rally has sent the S&P 6.7% above where it stood before Russia first moved into Ukraine on 24-Feb, bringing the bank's measure of cross- asset stress down in tandem.

    During the same time:

    • The Fed funds rate priced in for Dec-2022 is up from 1.57% (6 hikes) to 2.10% (8 hikes)
    • US 10yr inflation breakevens have risen from 2.58% to 2.96%
    • The 2s/10s Treasury curve just inverted (and certainly by far more than it ever did pre-GFC)
    • Investors thinking we are “late in the cycle” up from 48% to 60% in our March. Fund Manager Survey, and “global recession” jumped to 2nd biggest tail risk.

    Instead, markets have been dragged higher on the back of yet another epic short squeeze, and an even more furious gamma squeeze as Nomura's Charlie McElligott explained earlier.

    As one of Goldman's top traders noted over the weekend in a surprisingly bearish note, the light positioning and inflated earnings are not enough to sustain gains: Indeed, as BofA notes, some blame the rally on light equity positioning and a positive effect of inflation through higher earnings. On the latter, the experience of the 1970s suggests otherwise (S&P returned 1.6% ann. during the decade). At the same time, Bank of America's strategists note that the lack of equity positioning (evident in the bank's Bull & Bear signal enter a “Buy” territory and lack of vol convexity in the selloff), even if it helped this bounce, seems unlikely to sustain it against this challenging macro backdrop.

    While stocks are whistling past the graveyard, rates markets a lot more stressed, and are pricing in a lot more risk than equities. As shown in the chart below, the spread between the S&P gain and Treasury selloff over the last 10 days is the 5th biggest since the GFC.

    Even more stunning, the increase in rates vol (MOVE Index) relative to falling equity vol (VIX) has been the largest since 2009 and one of the largest ever.

    What tends to follow? In the 2009 episode, the S&P fell 7% in the next 6 weeks in what was its first sizeable dip since the GFC low.

    But wait there's more, because now that the “Fed put” has transitioned into a “Fed call”, any market upside is at best questionable: According to BofA, "investors should have by now stopped counting on the “Fed put” to come to the rescue. In fact, we think the Fed put has been for now replaced with a (short) “Fed call”.

    What do we mean by this? The Fed is seeking tighter financial conditions to aid their fight against inflation, and in practice this means lower risk assets. Hence, they may hike faster on equity rallies, limiting the upside in stocks. Case in point: various financial  conditions measures (and our GFSI index) have actually loosened since the Mar FOMC and triggered an avalanche of “50bp” comments from Fed speakers (see Global Rates Weekly)

    As a counter to its bearish view, BofA notes that softer inflation is the only true, but unlikely upside risk: The arrival of the short “Fed call” suggests the key catalysts for sustained upside in US equities is one that, without harming growth, lowers the Fed’s need to quickly raise rates back to neutral. The most visible upside risk, therefore, is inflation softening on its own from here. And yet most economists see risks of inflation worsening on its own. Other upside catalysts that may only work in the short term are:

    • Retail buying returns or earnings shine: but with the inflation backdrop unchanged, this allows the Fed to tighten further (and options data suggests extreme retail buying has not returned)
    • Russia-Ukraine ceasefire: most positive near-term, falling commodities may be positive for equities (Exhibit 16), but lower geopolitical risk allows the Fed to hike faster (recall they pushed back against 50bps in March due to the conflict)

    • Fixed income markets break before equities notice: the Fed is most sensitive to credit spreads and in theory could be forced to rescue credit before equities wake up to reality; however, this has never happened before, and it would only kick the can down the road if inflation doesn’t abate

    How to trade this? In summary, for a moderate grind higher towards all-time highs, the bank likes buying S&P call ratios (buy 1, sell 2) in May, selling elevated implied vol and offering up to a 4.7-to-1 payout. To hedge downside risks, consider buying S&P June put spread collars, which cheapen the cost of the hedge by also selling away upside (this time above all-time highs) and offer close to a 10-to-1 max payout.

    • To rent upside: with positioning still arguably light, the pain trade remains a grind higher. To participate in a continued grind higher for a low upfront cost and with limited downside risk, BofA likes buying call ratio overlays in SPX, benefitting from elevated implied vol. For instance, one can buy SPX May 4650/4800 1x2 call ratios (buy one & sell two calls) for 0.70% (4.7x max payout, ref. 4575.52). The short calls are struck at all-time highs.
    • To hedge: the earlier points reinforce our preference for put spread collars as cheap protection, particularly when initiated on a rally as sharp as the S&P has just delivered. For instance, consider buying SPX Jun 4900/4400/3900 put spread collars for 1.1% (9.9x max payout, ref. 4575.52). The short call is struck 2% above all-time highs.
    • Risks: beyond the upfront premium, the risk to both trades is a rally beyond the short call strike.

    Much more in the full BofA note available to pro subs in the usual place.

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