US Bank Deposits Suffer Biggest Weekly Decline Since 9/11 As Tax Man Cometh
It's that time of year again and US bank deposits sure showed it...
While money-market funds' total assets fell over $100BN,on a non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) basis, total bank deposits crashed by a stunning $258BN as Tax-Day cometh. That is considerably more than the $152BN decline last year but less than the $336BN plunge in 2022...
Source: Bloomberg
This makes some sense though as the Treasury Cash Balance rose by around the same amount as taxpayers did their duty and paid their 'fair share'...
Source: Bloomberg
However, on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis (i.e. adjusted by the PhDs for the fact that we get large deposit outflows at this time of year to pay taxes), total deposits dropped $133BN - the biggest weekly plunge (SA) since 9/11!
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding foreign deposits, domestic bank deposits plunged on both an SA (-$119BN: Large banks -$99BN, Small banks -$21BN) and NSA (-$241BN: Large banks -$188BN, Small banks -$53BN) basis...
Source: Bloomberg
For context, that is the largest weekly drop in SA deposits since 9/11 and the largest NSA deposit drop since April 2022 (Tax Day).
Interestingly, despite the deposit dump, loan volumes increased last week with large banks adding $5.8BN and small banks adding $2.5BN...
Source: Bloomberg
All of which pushed the un-bailed-out 'Small banks' back into 'crisis mode' (red line below constraint absent the $126BN still in the BTFP pot at The Fed which is slowly being unwound)...
Source: Bloomberg
And so, with rate-cuts off the table - and tapering QT very much back on - we wonder just how much jockeying between Janet (Yellen) and Jerome (Powell) is going on ahead of next week's QRA and FOMC news...
As the U.S. Justice Department decides whether to pursue a criminal case against Boeing, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is investigating dozens of airplane incidents since January, including one in which a Swiss Air jet almost collided with four other planes on the runway at JFK International Airport in New York City.
The FAA has more than 100 aviation accidents and incidents since the beginning of 2024. These include airplane and helicopter crashes, equipment and mechanical malfunctions, and communication breakdowns with air traffic controllers that almost caused runway collisions at several major U.S. airports.
These incidents come as public scrutiny of Boeing increases after multiple issues have been reported with their jets. After an Alaskan Airways flight experienced a mid-air blowout of a door plug on Jan. 5, the Justice Department is considering revoking a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement with the company and pursuing a criminal case.
There is also growing criticism of Air Traffic Control (ATC) and the FAA’s hiring practices after multiple near-collisions were reported, including at JFK Airport and Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia.
The JFK incident occurred on April 17. Pilots on a Swiss Air flight headed to Zurich, Switzerland, were forced to hit the brakes after the plane was cleared for takeoff because air traffic controllers simultaneously opened the runway for four other planes.
The next day, a similar incident played out at Reagan Washington National Airport, which services the Washington area. ATC cleared a JetBlue flight for takeoff as a Southwest Airlines flight was told to taxi across the same runway in front of it, according to ATC audio.
A runway controller cleared the JetBlue flight, while a taxiing controller cleared the Southwest Airlines flight. The two planes came within 400 feet of a collision before each controller ordered the planes to stop.
“JetBlue 1554 stop! 1554 stop!” said the tower controller, as the ground controller said “2937 stop!” to the Southwest Airlines plane.
Two airplanes—JetBlue and Southwest—nearly collided at DC’s Reagan National Airport on Thursday, avoiding each other by only 400 feet.
Air traffic control recordings show the moment controllers yelled at the JetBlue flight to “stop!” its takeoff.pic.twitter.com/Td1VTimVD0
Since sudden runway stops can overheat airplane brakes, the JetBlue flight was inspected before it safely departed the airport.
The agency said it is investigating both incidents.
Juan Browne, a Boeing 777 first officer pilot for a major U.S. airline company, told The Epoch Times that while the number of airplane accidents has remained steady, ATC incidents are “on the rise.”
He said the “primary driver” of this phenomenon is the “huge turnover” in the industry, as controllers retired during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many retired early, creating a “big shortage of people, pilots, and air traffic controllers,” and some, including pilots and others, retired due to vaccine mandates.
However, other factors leading to ATC communication breakdowns include diversity-focused hiring practices, a bottleneck in controller training, distractions, and pilot error.
Diversity Hiring Practices
Many, including aviation expert Kyle Bailey, have called out the FAA for prioritizing “diversity” in its hiring practices, alleging that hiring pilots or controllers based on their skin instead of their merit, can lead to safety issues.
“Diversity really has nothing to do with safe travel,” Mr. Bailey told Fox News Digital in January.
The aviation agency’s “Diversity and Inclusion webpage, last updated on March 23, 2022, says, ”Diversity is integral to achieving the FAA’s mission of ensuring safe and efficient travel across our nation and beyond.”
In its "Aviation Safety Workforce Plan, the agency explains this policy further.
“[Diversity] practices facilitate the organization in attracting and hiring talented applicants from diverse backgrounds and to meet future needs. A commitment to diversity and inclusion supports [aviation safety’s] strategic initiative to create a workforce with the leadership, technical, and functional skills necessary to ensure the U.S. has the world’s safest and most productive aviation sector.”
Later, the agency discusses how this can impact operations.
“The projected growth in demand and diversity from conventional customers, as well as new entrants in non-traditional areas will challenge the FAA’s ability to provide responsive and consistent service to our stakeholders, the report reads.
“It seems that the FAA has placed ‘diversity bean counting over safety and expertise, and we worry that such misordered priorities could be catastrophic for American travelers, Mr. Kobach wrote in the letter.
“Millions of Americans place their lives and the lives of their loved ones in the hands of your agency ... Unfortunately, the Biden FAA, under your administration, appears to prioritize virtue-signaling ‘diversity efforts over aviation expertise. And this calls into question the agency’s commitment to safety, he added.
The letter accused the Obama administration of seeking out applicants with “severe intellectual” and “psychiatric” disabilities, noting that the FAA’s “Diversity and Inclusion” webpage currently has the same language on it.
Mr. Browne, who has been a commercial pilot for 25 years, told The Epoch Times that there is a big drive towards on-the-job diversity in all U.S. industries, and aviation is no different.
“I can’t speak specifically to what those requirements are at the FAA ATC program, but we definitely need to ask ourselves: Are we hiring and training the correct people for the jobs?” he asked.
“How are we getting the most qualified applicants out there to fill these jobs?”
Retirements and Training ‘Bottleneck’
Another factor leading to issues with ATC is the sheer volume of retirements in the aviation industry during the pandemic, Mr. Browne said.
He explained that some pilots and air traffic controllers were close to retirement age when the pandemic started, with many deciding to retire early. This created a shortage of applicants and now a shortage of active workers, as both the FAA and ATC struggled to keep up when a waning pandemic caused airline travel demand to increase.
“So we got a lot of new folks out there on the job right now, a lot of on-the-job training going on right now. And a lot of mistakes being made up there as well,” he said.
Some also retired early because they declined to take the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine when it was briefly mandated by the FAA, Mr. Browne added.
With these early retirements came limited training opportunities and a “shortage of qualified controllers.”
“There was a big bottleneck in training throughout the aviation industry, whether it was for pilots or for air traffic controllers who have trained up in Oklahoma City, the home of the FAA,” Mr. Browne said.
“And so, now, the FAA is trying to do more with less.”
He explained that the agency is working its current and new controllers “much harder and longer hours than they have in the past” to “backfill” the demand after airlines quickly and unexpectedly recovered from the pandemic. This “exacerbated the shortage of both pilots and air traffic controllers,” Mr. Browne said.
In a statement to The Epoch Times, the FAA disputed the claim that there were “excessive controller retirements during the pandemic.”
Distractions, Infrastructure, Budget Issues
As a Boeing 777 pilot, Mr. Browne mostly flies overseas. When he flies into cities like London or Sydney, he says the radio channels through ATC are “a lot less chaotic” and more “organized” compared to the United States.
“Here in the States, we’re pushing so much material, so many aircraft through such a tight system and dealing with weather constantly,” he explained.
“And yet, there seems to be a lot of miscommunications between different members of the staff, for example, ground controllers versus tower controllers.”
It was a miscommunication between ground and tower controllers that resulted in the near-collision at Reagan Washington National Airport on April 18.
Mr. Browne said he often hears a lot of background noise coming over the radio from within the control towers. Pilots are instructed to maintain a “sterile cockpit” whenever they’re below 10,000 feet, he explained. That means pilots must refrain from any conversation outside plane operations until they reach that altitude to “avoid distractions.”
“Is that not the case with the ATC?” Mr. Browne asked.
He explained that working in ATC can be a boring job, so it’s “human nature to get distracted, to do something else to break the monotony,” even if it’s critical to avoid this to prevent putting passengers’ lives at risk.
However, it’s not just distractions leading to issues with coordinating plane routes on runways. The infrastructure throughout the aviation industry struggles to keep pace with the growing demand for air travel.
Mr. Browne explained that ATC, airports, runways, plane parking access, and the number of gates were all designed for “a lot less traffic.”
“But in general, where we are, the demand is outstripping the capacity of the system. And that leads to, in the case of the FAA controllers, a lot of overtime and a lot of tired controllers on the job,” he added.
There are also budget concerns for ATC. Mr. Browne wonders if Congress is allocating enough funds to keep pace with air travel demands but said that question is up to congressional leaders to consider.
Lastly, pilots are sometimes at fault as well for aviation incidents, he explained.
Mr. Browne said there are multiple factors worth considering in addressing these problems. Not only could Congress increase the FAA’s budget, but ATC can be more transparent when there are incidents like the ones on April 17 and 18.
When pilots make significant mistakes, a full investigation commences immediately. But for air traffic controllers, it’s not always the same approach, Mr. Browne said.
However, the most significant factor is getting the best applicants for pilot and air traffic controller positions.
“Make sure we’re hiring the right people for the job, regardless of who they are or what they are. Make sure you’re hiring the most qualified people for these very demanding jobs,” Mr. Browne added.
“If we continue to perform at this level, [these incidents] will eventually lead to a disaster.”
The FAA told The Epoch Times that it is working to address some of these issues, but did not specifically comment on the “diversity hiring” allegations.
“Hiring highly qualified air traffic controllers is a top priority at the FAA. Every FAA-certified air traffic controller has gone through months of screening and training at the FAA Academy, and that is before another 18-24 months of training to learn specific regions and airspace.
“There is a well-known national shortage of air traffic controllers and the FAA has ramped up outreach to ensure no talent is left on the table. We are accelerating the pace of recruiting, training, and hiring to meet demand while maintaining the highest qualification standards,” the agency said in a statement.
... and left, leaving traders stunned and speechless at the sheer idiocy of the world's most clownish central bank, which has decided to invite currency collapse the same abandon as Zimbabwe, if it means pushing up domestic stonks a little bit more even as hyperinflation is unleashed among Japanese society. And now that the collapse in the yen is making banana republics like Turkey blush, and is making FX managers and traders who are still long the Japanese DongLira Yen to the imploding "developed" insolvent, everyone wants to know what happens next?
Below we share to views, one from Deutsche Bank's Geroge Saravelos, and one from SocGen's Kit Juckes.
We start with the DB FX strategist who frames the BOJ's wilful incompetence merely as "benign neglect", to wit:
On the collapse
The yen has again collapsed today to fresh record lows following the Bank of Japan meeting. We think this is warranted and that this finally marks the day where the market realizes that Japan is following a policy of benign neglect for the yen. We have long argued that FX intervention is not credible and the toning down of verbal jawboning from the finance minister overnight is on balance a positive from a credibility perspective. The possibility of intervention can't be ruled out if the market turns disorderly, but it is also notable that Governor Ueda played down the importance of the yen in his press conference today as well as signalling no urgency to hike rates. We would frame the ongoing yen collapse around the following points.
Yen weakness is simply not that bad for Japan. The tourism sector is booming, profit margins on the Nikkei are soaring and exporter competitiveness is increasing. True, the cost of imported items is going up. But growth is fine, the government is helping offset some of the cost via subsidies and core inflation is not accelerating. Most importantly, the Japanese are huge foreign asset owners via Japan's positive net international investment position. Yen weakness therefore leads to huge capital gains on foreign bonds and equities, most easily summarized in the observation that the government pension fund (GPIF) has roughly made more profits over the last two years than the last twenty years combined.
There simply isn't an inflation problem. Japan's core CPI is around 2% and has been decelerating in recent months. The Tokyo CPI overnight was 1.7% excluding one-off effects. To be sure, inflation may well accelerate again helped by FX weakness and high wage growth. But the starting point of inflation is entirely different to the post-COVID hiking cycles of the Fed and ECB. By extension, the inflation pain is far less and the urgency to hike far less too. No where is this more obvious than the fact that Japanese consumer confidence are close to their cycle highs.
Negative real rates are great. There is a huge attraction to running negative real rates for the consolidated government balance sheet. As we demonstrated last year, it creates fiscal space via a $20 trillion carry trade while also generating asset gains for Japan's wealthy voting base. This encourages the persistent domestic capital outflows we have been highlighting as a key driver of yen weakness over the last year and that have pushed Japan's broad basic balance to being one of the weakest in the world. It is not speculators that are weakening the yen but the Japanese themselves.
The bottom line is that for the JPY to turn stronger the Japanese need to unwind their carry trade. But for this to make sense the Bank of Japan needs to engineer an expedited hiking cycle similar to the post-COVID experiences of other central banks. Time will tell if the BoJ is moving too slow and generating a policy mistake. A shift in BoJ inflation forecasts to well above 2% over their forecast horizon would be the clearest signal of a shift in reaction function. But this isn't happening now. The Japanese are enjoying the ride
And next, here is the somewhat more actionable view from SocGen's FX strategist Kit Juckes:
The yen's decline is becoming disorderly, which points to a final, potentially sharp, decline before it finds a floor
The Bank of Japan, as was universally expected, made no changes to interest rates at today’s policy-setting meeting, though they did edge inflation forecasts higher. Forecasts for the 2025/26 fiscal year look for core inflation (ex-food and energy) at 2.1% and real GDP growth of 1%. In Japan, as in most countries, yields have tended to average more than nominal GDP growth over time, and on that basis the US/Japanese yield differential is set to narrow significantly in the coming quarters. However, for now US yields are rising and Japanese ones are still anchored by very low short-term rates. Those short-term rates give short yen trades their positive carry and have kept the leveraged trading community happy for months.
The chart shows the US-Japanese yield differential and USD/JPY over the last 20 years, with the yield chart extended using the OECD’s forecasts for yields. These are just forecasts but they frame the issue quiet well, particularly bearing in mind how undervalued the yen is now, on any fundamental long-term valuation. If PPP for USD/JPY is now in the mid-90s, fair value adjusted for US exceptionalism and Japanification is still around 110. As long as yield differentials are large and growing, upward pressure on USD/JPY persists and while eventual return to much lower levels is inevitable, the danger here is that unless Japan’s policymakers are much more aggressive (with intervention and monetary policy), this move higher in USD/JPY will end in a final excessive spike higher.
As protests escalate across college and university campuses in the United States, a New York Police Department (NYPD) official vowed that a “Seattle-style” occupation zone will not be tolerated on the streets of New York City.
Two New York Police Department (NYPD) officials spoke with Fox News’ “The Story” anchor Trace Gallagher on April 25. The conversation focused on growing concerns that the anti-Israel protests spreading across America’s college campuses might devolve into further violence.
NYPD Deputy Commissioner of Operations Kaz Daughtry addressed growing speculation that the student anti-Israel encampments could evolve into something similar to the “autonomous zone” established in Seattle, in Washington state, in response to the death of George Floyd in May 2020, suggesting they might “linger and last all summer long and become bigger and more dangerous.”
It was a possibility immediately shut down by Chief of Patrol John Chell.
“We will not have any Seattle-type encampments on the streets of New York City. I can guarantee you that — that would end rather quickly,” he asserted.
The Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone, also known by its acronym CHAZ and later CHOP (Capitol Hill Organized Protest), became a scene of widespread vandalism and violence that spanned more than six blocks in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Seattle.
A shooting on June 20, 2020, claimed the life of a 19-year-old man and injured a 33-year-old man, as reported by The New York Times on July 1, 2020. The next day, a 17-year-old man was injured in another shooting. A third shooting took the life of a 16-year-old and left a 14-year-old seriously injured.
“The fine line here is the street, the public property, which we'll deal with, and the college is the private property,” Mr. Chell explained.
“That’s why we got to strike this balance. Let me repeat, there will never be encampments on the streets of New York City while we’re in power, never going to happen.”
After the NYPD deployed counterterrorism units to the Columbia University campus, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) took to social media platform X to condemn the move as a “horrific” decision, adding that NYPD officers had “some of the most violent reputations on the force.”
Mr. Chell responded the next day, defending the “units” and informing her that he was with them when they were deployed to the university.
“These ‘units’ removed students with great care and professionalism, not a single incident was reported,” he said.
“Maybe you should walk around Columbia and NYU and listen to their remarks of pure hatred,” he added. “I will ensure those ‘units’ will protect you as they do for all NYers 24/7/365.”
Mr. Daugherty added his thoughts saying, “There is nothing ‘horrific’ about protecting the safety of Columbia’s young students who are just trying to go to school.”
He also defended NYPD officers, describing them as “the best and most highly trained law enforcement professionals in the world.”
Mr. Daugherty invited Ms. Ocasio-Cortez to “visit Columbia” for a walk-through, promising to protect her and take a report if she feels threatened.
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) speaks to a crowd gathered for a march to defund the Minneapolis Police Department in Minneapolis, Minn., on June 6, 2020. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Request for Help
The presence of the NYPD at Columbia was by request.
Columbia University’s president, Minouche Shafik, had personally reached out to the NYPD in a letter, requesting their assistance in clearing the encampment set up by more than 100 students on the south lawn of Columbia’s Morningside Heights campus on April 17.
Students had been repeatedly warned, both verbally and in writing, that they were in violation of university rules and policies and would have to disperse. Students staying in the encampment were also informed that they had been suspended.
“I have determined that the encampment and related disruptions pose a clear and present danger to the substantial functioning of the University,” she wrote,“ adding that it was ”With great regret, we request the NYPD’s help to remove these individuals.”
Among them was Isra Hirsi, a student from Barnard, Columbia’s sister college. Ms. Hirsi is the daughter of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), a frequent critic of Israel.
Following her daughter’s arrest, Rep. Omar praised her daughter on social media.
At an April 18 press conference, New York City Mayor Eric Adams explained that the arrests were made because the protesters had been camped out on Columbia’s south lawn for more than 30 hours, in violation of the university’s rules.
He confirmed that the NYPD was dispatched to the campus only after students received “numerous warnings” to disband and after Ms. Shafik reached out to the NYPD “in writing,” requesting support.
He stressed that “no violence or injuries” occurred during the incident.
While acknowledging that Columbia’s students have a right to free speech, he said they “do not have the right to violate university policies and disrupt learning on campus.”
Ms. Shafik issued a statement on April 22, expressing sadness over what is taking place on Columbia’s campus. She said the activities of the protesting students have “severely tested” community bonds and imposed a state of fear among students “across an array of communities.”
On April 21, Columbia’s chief operating officer, Cas Holloway, outlined the enhanced safety measures being imposed on the Morningside Heights campus, where the protesters were “causing considerable disruption and distress.”
The increased security measures include additional security personnel, enhanced security around the perimeter of the Morningside Heights campus, additional security at the Kraft Center, and increased identification checks to make sure that only Columbia University students are on campus.
Republicans Condemn Hatred
Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC), chair of the House Education Committee, sent a letter to university leaders on April 21, warning them of consequences if they do not gain control of “the encampment and related activities” which “have created a severe and pervasive hostile environment for Jewish students at Columbia.”
A total of 10 Republican members of Congress sent a letter to Ms. Shafik on April 22, urging her to resign immediately.
House Speaker Mike Johnson held a press conference on the steps of the university’s Low library near the student’s “Liberty Zone” encampment on April 24, and called for her resignation if she could not gain control of her campus.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) holds a press conference at the Columbia campus to call for the resignation of university president Minouche Shafik, in New York City, on April 24, 2024. (Alex Kent/Getty Images)
“We just can’t allow this kind of hatred and anti-Semitism to flourish on our campuses, and it must be stopped in its tracks,” he said.
“Those who are perpetuating this violence should be arrested.”
His visit to the campus, which took place shortly after the university extended a deadline by 48 hours (until April 26) to reach an agreement on the removal of the encampment, was to show support for Jewish students, who have been intimidated, threatened, and assaulted by anti-Israeli protesters.
His presence was immediately met by boos and his comments were frequently interrupted with chants of, “We can’t hear you,” and “Free Palestine.”
The University of Southern California was forced to close its campus after campus police were overwhelmed during an effort to shut down an encampment. To clear the area, they had to enlist the help of the Los Angeles Police Department. As students surrendered peacefully, they were arrested.
Student protesters have also set up an encampment at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, the Detroit Free Press reported on April 23.
Nine people were reportedly arrested by University of Minnesota police after pro-Palestinian students set up an encampment on the Northrop Mall. Ms. Omar made an appearance, telling the students through a loudspeaker that she was “moved” by their “courage and bravery” in taking a stand “to end the genocide,” Star Tribune reported.
More than 20 tents, festooned with pro-Palestinian signage and flags, have been erected in front of a chapel on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, as reported by CNN.
Dozens of student protesters were arrested at the University of Southern California on April 24 and the campus of California State Polytechnic, in Humboldt, was shut down as students barricaded themselves inside a building for a third day, the Associated Press reported on April 25.
At the University of Texas, 57 students were arrested by campus police during a protest organized by the Palestine Solidarity Committee when students tried to “occupy” the South Lawn, Austin television station KXAN reported.
Last week, the European Commission set out its ambitions to strike a deal with Lebanon, to stop asylum-seekers reaching the EU from there. Giorgia Meloni [Italy’s Pime Minister] now spends so much time in Tunisia, where the EU signed another agreement to limit migration, that she should consider buying a time-share in Bizerte.
Fabio Panetta, the Banca d’Italia’s governor, recently made a welcome intervention on this. He made a point which you do not hear very often: that without more immigration, the EU will sink demographically. That will mean both its economic and fiscal situation becoming unsustainable. According to Panetta, a common EU-level policy is necessary. Migrants, legally or not, come into the EU as a whole. Even if they are legally restricted to one member state, practically speaking there is often little to stop them moving across borders in a border-free Schengen area.
In Panetta’s own home country, the situation is especially bad. Italy’s total fertility rate is now 1.25 as of 2021. This is far below the so-called replacement level of 2.1, which is necessary to keep a country’s population stable. The only thing stopping its population from cratering is the immigration it receives already. Even if the government could stumble on a way to increase the total fertility rate to replacement level, something virtually no developed country has managed, there would still be inertia.
This basic demographic reality is acute in Italy, but not unique to it. The only countries mitigating it so far are those that accept high numbers of immigrants and integrate them into the workforce, like the UK, Spain, and Portugal. Yet it is something politicians skirt around, for fear that their voters are not prepared to hear the truth.
What you end up with is a worst-of-both-worlds situation. Politicians, especially if they act on their own and not on the EU level, cannot get a handle on irregular migration and asylum-seekers, despite repeatedly promising to. All they accomplish is raising the issue’s salience, while driving disillusioned voters to the far-right.
But on the other hand, they dodge the other side of the coin, the need to accept and properly integrate migrants to keep demographic, and fiscal, balances stable. Until governments are prepared to acknowledge these trade-offs, we should be wary of the feasibility of any commitments they make to consolidate public finances in the long term.
In the US, the birth rate has been falling since the Great Recession, dropping almost 23 percent between 2007 and 2022. Today, the average American woman has about 1.6 children, down from three in 1950, and significantly below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 children needed to sustain a stable population. In Italy, 12 people now die for every seven babies born. In South Korea, the birth rate is down to 0.81 children per woman. In China, after decades of a strictly enforced one-child policy, the population is shrinking for the first time since the 1960s. In Taiwan, the birth rate stands at 0.87.
The US numbers from VOX are a bit low. The lead chart is more current but I like the VOX discussion. Were it not for immigration, the US population would be in decline.
Is that necessarily a bad thing? At what point does increasing population become a Ponzi scheme due to the energy and food needs?
There are a lot of questions and the only thing everyone seems to agree on is that uncontrolled migration is bad. Even Biden admits that, but he is unwilling to do anything about it.
Progressive Irony
Progressives want open borders but they also want guaranteed living wages, clean energy, slave reparations, a right to shelter, a right to free health care, and net zero carbon. The goals are incompatible.
In the next 5 years employment in age groups 60+ will drop by ~12.5 million
Due to age demographics, I expect employment in age groups 60 and over to decline by about 12.5 million. Let’s go over the math to see how I arrived at that number.
Government + Social Assistance Accounted for Nearly 60% of Job Growth in 2023
The welfare state is booming along with social assistance for illegal immigrants.
Family Formation
Taking a step back from immigration policy, why is it that family formation is so low? The unfortunate answer is Fed policy and fiscal policy is so inflationary, that young adults have come to expect they will be worse off than their parents.
If so, and that seems accurate, this will be the first time in US history.
Importantly, houses are too expensive. Zoomers and younger millennials are angry over housing costs. And millions of illegal immigrants need a home and services.
The Fed is largely responsible for the housing mess and Biden/Congress is responsible for the rest.
Yet Biden refuses to do anything lest he upset the Progressives who want open borders, guaranteed living wages, clean energy, a right to shelter, a right to free health care, and net zero carbon.
US Steps Up Monitoring As FDA Warns Bird Flu Found In Pasteurized Milk From Grocery Stores
Dairy cattle moving between states must be tested for the bird flu virus, U.S. agriculture officials said Wednesday as they try to track and control the growing outbreak.
AP reports that the federal order was announced a day after health officials said they had detected inactivated remnants of the virus, known as Type A H5N1, in samples taken from milk during processing and after retail sale. They stressed that such remnants pose no known risk to people or the milk supply.
“The risk to humans remains low,” said Dawn O'Connell of the federal Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response.
The new order requires every lactating cow to be tested and post a negative result before moving to a new state. It will help the agency understand how the virus is spreading, said Michael Watson, an administrator with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.
“We believe we can do tens of thousands of tests a day,” he told reporters.
Until now, testing had been done voluntarily and only in cows with symptoms.
As The Epoch Times' Zachary Steiber reported earlier, commercially available milk from grocery stores has tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on April 23.
The FDA said in a statement it has been testing milk from cattle that have been sickened with the influenza, commonly known as the bird flu or H5N1, as well as milk “in the processing system, and on the shelves.”
“Based on available information, pasteurization is likely to inactivate the virus, however, the process is not expected to remove the presence of viral particles. Therefore, some of the samples collected have indicated the presence of HPAI using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) testing,” the agency said.
While samples tested positive, that does not mean they contain an intact pathogen, according to the FDA.
“Additional testing is required to determine whether intact pathogen is still present and if it remains infectious, which determines whether there is any risk of illness associated with consuming the product,” the FDA said.
The agency is injecting samples into fertilized chicken eggs to see whether any active virus replicates, among other experiments. It is also completing testing on samples taken from pasteurized milk from across the nation.
“To date, we have seen nothing that would change our assessment that the commercial milk supply is safe. Results from multiple studies will be made available in the next few days to weeks,” the FDA said.
The agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment for more details, including how many samples tested positive and which stores the milk that tested positive came from.
Bird flu has been confirmed in 33 herds of cattle in eight states after spreading to ruminants for the first time in the United States earlier this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. One person, a farm worker in Texas, has also tested positive for the influenza.
U.S. authorities previously said that milk from diaries with sickened animals was “being diverted or destroyed so that it does not enter the food supply” and that “pasteurization has continually proven to inactivate bacteria and viruses, like influenza, in milk,” but critics noted the authorities produced no evidence of testing to back up their position.
“There could be viruses in the milk on grocery shelves right now,” Gail Hansen, a veterinary expert who was formerly the state public health veterinarian for the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, and Andrew deCoriolis, executive director of the group Farm Forward, wrote in a recent op-ed.
Ms. Hansen said on the social media platform X that the FDA finding virus particles was “a little bit better than finding whole virus” but was “still not good.”
Rick Bright, the former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, noted the shifting language from the government. The FDA now says that pasteurization “is very likely to effectively inactivate heat-sensitive viruses like H5N1 in milk from cows and other species.”
It also acknowledged that “no studies on the effects of pasteurization on HPAI viruses (such as H5N1) in bovine milk have previously been completed,” although it pointed to previousstudies on effective pasteurization.
Yaneer Bar-Yam, president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, said the findings mean “milk from sick cows is being used” in the commercial supply. While pasteurization likely makes the milk safe, that safety is “not guaranteed,” he added.
Some experts emphasized that, at present, there were no indications that the positive tests meant the virus detected was infectious.
“There is no evidence to date that this is [an] infectious virus and the FDA is following up on that,” Lee-Ann Jaykus, an emeritus food microbiologist and virologist at North Carolina State University, told the Associated Press.
But Angela Rasmussen, a virologist, said on X that the positive samples “suggests there are undetected herds shedding virus into the milk supply” because they show intact virus “was once present.”
“It’s hard to say more as no raw data was shared, so we just have to take their word for it,” she added.
The Next Global Hegemon Has To Be Even Larger Than The US
By Michael Every of Rabobank
"Where it will end is very much up for grabs."
Yesterday’s manufacturing PMIs shouted “stagflation”, even if some heard “rate cuts”. German manufacturing was 42.2, French 44.9, and Eurozone 45.6, as services were 53.3, 50.5, and 52.9 - but Europe must now factor in logjams appearing at key ports due to unsold Chinese EVs and the knock-on effects of the Houthi’s blockage of Suez; the UK prints were 48.7 and 54.9; and the US both 50.9 - but its fine print said: “Manufacturing has now registered the steeper rate of price increases in three of the past four months, with factory cost pressures intensifying in April amid higher raw material and fuel prices, contrasting with the wage-related services-led price pressures seen throughout much of 2023.”
Yesterday’s bigger picture was as big as it gets. No, not the UK “putting its economy on a war footing” in raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030. It’s already at 2.32% despite UK armed forces being nowhere near ready for war. (Of more interest was that a tax cut might be dropped to fund this incremental spending: a ‘guns or butter’ decision we will see lots more of.)
Rather, the ECB’s Panetta gave a speech echoing Mario Draghi’s call for “radical change. He stated for the EU to thrive it needs a de facto national-security focused POLITCAL economy centered round: reducing dependence on foreign demand (i.e., fewer net exports – sorry, Germany/Netherlands!); enhancing energy security (green protectionism); advancing production of technology (industrial policy); rethinking participation in global value chains (tariffs/subsidies); governing migration flows (so higher labour costs); enhancing external security (huge funds for defence); and joint investments in European public goods (viaEurobonds… to be bought by ECB QE for a ‘strategic bond portfolio’?) Oddly, the people who spend their time transcribing every syllable of what the ECB says when it points to a slight shift in the timing of a 25bp rate move were quiet about a speech which promised to transform the entire EU economic and market architecture!
However, this is what we said Europe would do to try to achieve strategic autonomy. It’s also what I argued Western economies would do in 2016’s pre-Brexit, pre-Trump ‘Thin Ice’, which underlined that once you remove any leg of the free market ‘table’, the whole thing topples over. So, it’s now modern-day Hamiltonian economics – unless it’s “Build Back Better” all over again.
This is a global, fundamental issue. In 2025, we get either Bidenomics 2.0 or Trump 2.0: in either case we are going to see more huge fiscal deficits, protectionism, and industrial policy, but in the latter case, perhaps on steroids. At the same time, China is going to keep being mercantilist on its own steroids. Likewise, Japan and even Australia(!) are heading in that direction. Clearly, we need some understanding of what this all means beyond monthly PMI up- or down-ticks.
Narrowly, Trump 2.0 could mean a USD and US asset meltdown, or a further USD and US asset spike and anemerging marketmeltdown. It depends on how it’s implemented and how the world responds.
More broadly, the global system is close tomassivestructural change.As the Financial Times op-eds today, the US and EU can’t embrace national-security “infant industry” arguments, seize key value chains to narrow inequality, and break the fiscal and monetary ‘rules’, while also using the IMF and World Bank --and the economics profession-- to preach free-market best practice to EM ex-China. And China can’t expect others not to copy what it does. As the FT concludes, “The shift to a new economic paradigm has begun. Where it will end if very much up for grabs.”
And “up for grabs” is the key point. As far back as 1820, Hegel argued that bourgeois society was incapable of internally solving its problems of social inequality and instability arising from its tendency to over-accumulate wealth at one pole and deprivation at the other, and a "mature" civil society was thus driven to seek external solutions through foreign trade, colonial, or imperial practices. In 2024, Europe just made the point for him – but what was their alternative?
In 2020, I warned we needed a new ideological “-ism” to guide our *political* economy out of the mess it was in: Hamiltonianism is it, as predicted. However, we each want it only for ourselves, not for others. There appears no likelihood of a Global New Deal to distribute value chains and green technology so everybody gets a fair share. Yet without it, we are back to a world of all vs. all, as warned in ’Thin Ice’ – and now openly with violence. That was why we dreamed the post-WW2, post-Cold War neoliberal one-world dream: it wasn’t just so the rich could feast on the poor; it also held up a simple, illusory ideology the world could buy into to end all conflicts.
Such arguments sound silly to PMI-monomaniacs, but they matter deeply for policy. For example, in the UK there was a public St. George’s Day debate over whether it was free-market capitalism or its empire that led to the UK becoming global hegemon. Free marketeers say it was all markets, so more markets please; Hamasniks on campuses say it was all the latter, so more “decolonisation”, please. The implications are enormous.
The awkward historical fact is that it was capitalismandempire that enriched the UK. Free markets and the rule of law were essential; but so was empire – in particular India. As Arrighi (2007), notes: “India's huge demographic resources buttressed British world power both commercially and militarily. Commercially, Indian workers were forcibly transformed from major competitors of European textile industries into major producers of cheap food and raw materials for Europe. Militarily…Indian manpower was organized in a European-style colonial army, funded entirely by the Indian taxpayer, and used throughout the nineteenth century in the endless series of wars through which Britain opened up Asia and Africa to Western trade and investment. As for the financial aspect, the devaluation of the Indian currency, the imposition of the infamous Home Charges through which India was made to pay for the privilege of being pillaged and exploited by Britain, and the Bank of England's control over India's foreign-exchange reserves, jointly turned India into the "pivot" of Britain's world-financial and commercial supremacy.”
In short, free marketsand forcing othersnot to be freehas worked very well: denying that won’t help. Addressing what a global structure looks like that keeps the former but doesn’t do the latter, and which doesn’t produce inequality and destabilisation, is the issue. Or, given that may be a utopia, we at least need to predict what the all vs. all world looks like. (Which is what we did in predicting Europe would embrace the “radical” policy changes now floated even at the ECB.)
On all vs. all, the global capitalist hegemon has shifted over time to a successively larger polity/geography (Italian city states > Dutch United Provinces > England/the UK > the US) through economic or real war, with the complexity of the expanding global system requiring ever greater resources to sit at its centre. However, the US alone can no longer carry the world on its shoulders. The Triffin Paradox looms over the global role of the dollar --and any would-be successor; and the US will not be the net importer for everyone, the net provider of financial assets to all savers, nor the world policeman for all who require it. Indeed, the latter three stand in fundamental contradiction to each other.
This implies the next global hegemon has to be even larger than the US (or we fragment):
Maybe the US will fail at a Hamiltonian relaunch and China is the next hegemon: but that implies geopolitical chaos ahead given the US won’t go home quietly.
Maybe the US will succeed at Hamiltonianism, and the world/markets will shift accordingly.
Maybe the scale needed for US hegemony involves it ‘bolting’ on Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Australia, and perhaps the UK and a ‘new look’ EU. But that implies a bifurcated world, with lots of bumps before we set up any buffers.
Maybe the US will prefer what Kautsky called Ultra-Imperialism: making a global deal with China and Russia to carve out spheres of influence, and setting oligopolistic rules that benefit all three. Where does ‘old look’ Europe sit if so? Very uncomfortably, in all likelihood.
Those illusory good times, for some, take the market’s eyes off the prize: it’s no wonder few want to read Hamilton rather than a headline about rate cuts, and few seriously engage with what strategic decoupling and reindustrialisation might look like even when we are already seeing it via tariffs, the CHIPS Act, and the IRA.Not even when Trump may do far more, and the ECB says the EU should do it too!
Tesla Soars: Misses Across The Board, But Is "Accelerating" Rollout Of "More Affordable Models"
As previewed earlier, today's TSLA print is likely to be ugly: the company is the only Mag7 member expected to reported negative earnings growth...
... as a result of anemic Q1 sales, where the (growing) delta between production and deliveries was 46,000+ cars. Since then, CEO Elon Musk has doubled down on his robotaxi vision and vowed to unveil said robotaxi on August 8th. He also laid off more than 10% of the workforce and lost two key executives, while over the weekend, Tesla slashed prices across its lineup yet again and also reduced the cost of Full Self-Driving, or FSD -- which despite the name requires attentive drivers to keep their hands on the wheel.
For those who missed it, this is what Wall Street is looking for, starting with the first quarter:
Q1 Revenue estimate $22.3 billion
Q1 Adjusted EPS estimate 52c
Automotive gross margin estimate 17.6%
Free cash flow estimate $651.7 million
Gross margin estimate 16.5%
Capital expenditure estimate $2.4 billion
Cash and cash equivalents estimate $23.24 billion
Turning to the next quarter:
Q2 Automotive gross margin estimate 17.9%
And the full year
Deliveries estimate 1.94 million
Automotive gross margin estimate 17.9%
Capital expenditure estimate $9.91 billion
Goldman cautions that while there is clearly skepticism on both TSLA and the EV market as a whole, with deliveries already announced for 1Q (stock was down 5% on this and another -14% additionally since), much of this has been priced in with short interest is at 3-year highs. Goldman thinks the key focus for investors will be
Can they grow volumes in 2024? Goldman thinks investors were at +10-15% y/y to start the year and are now in the 1-2% range, and
What are gross margins and how low do they need to go? Consensus looks to be 15.8% (ex-credits) and bogey seems to be below 15% for the quarter.
The one thing that everyone -- from the Wall Street giant to the retail investor -- wants from this earnings print and call, is simple: Clarity. Each group historically assigns different importance to different things and never before has the dichotomy of a robotaxi thesis vs. the pursuit of an affordable EV been so important. So Elon better give the people (investors) what they want, unless he wants to see what is already a record-matching stretch of stock price declines extend further.
Musk has also given us plenty of hints on his focus (spoiler: it’s Robotaxi). And sure enough, the call with Musk will be more important than the print itself. As Bloomberg notes, do we get an expansive, optimistic Musk who sells investors on the robotaxi? Or is he testy and curt with Wall Street analysts?
While Tesla shares closed up 1.8% ahead of the results, snapping a seven day losing streak, and joining the other mega-cap names that also rose, Tesla earnings haven’t been a happy event for investors for a long time now: shares of the company have dropped at least 9% the day after its results in each of the past four quarters. Tuesday’s announcement can also lead to a volatile reaction, with options trading implying that investors are pricing in an 8.3% move in either direction.
Meanwhile, technical strategists, who analyze moves in share prices to predict their future path, are also warning that the stock currently has little support and there’s risk that any disappointment in Tuesday’s report or Musk’s conference call could snowball into a much larger decline.
* * *
With all that in mind, here is what the company reported for the first quarter:
Q1 Revenue $21.3BN, down 9% YoY, and missing estimates of $22.3BN
Q1 Adj EPS 45c, down 47% YoY, and missing estimates of 52x
Q1 Operating income $1.17BN, down 56% YoY and missing estimates of $1.53BN
Q1 Free Cash Flow -$2.53BN, vs +$441MM YoY and missing estimates of +653.6MM
In short: a hot mess as summarized below:
Some more details on the results, starting with revenue which declined 9% YoY in Q1 to $21.3B. YoY. revenue was impacted by the following items:
- reduced vehicle average selling price (ASP) YoY (excl. FX impact), including unfavorable impact of mix
- decline in vehicle deliveries, partially due to the Model 3 update in the Fremont factory and Giga Berlin production disruptions
- negative FX impact of $0.2B1
+ growth in other parts of the business
+ higher FSD revenue recognition YoY due to release of Autopark feature in North America
Turning to operating income, that decreased YoY to $1.2B in Q1, resulting in a 5.5% operating margin. YoY, operating income was primarily impacted by the following items:
- reduced vehicle ASP due to pricing and mix- increase in operating expenses partly driven by AI, cell advancements and other R&D projects
- cost of Cybertruck production ramp
- decline in vehicle deliveries, partially due to the Model 3 update in the Fremont factory and Giga Berlin production disruptions
+ lower cost per vehicle, including lower raw material costs, freight and duties
+ gross profit growth in Energy Generation and Storage including IRA credit benefit
+ higher FSD revenue recognition YoY due to release of Autopark feature in North America
The company's cash at quarter-end was $26.9B, a sequential decrease of $2.2B which was the result of negative free cash flow of $2.5B, driven by an inventory increase of $2.7B and AI infrastructure capex of $1.0B in Q1.
While we already knew the operating summary, here it is again:
Charted, the results are anything but pretty:
And while the disappointing results would likely have been enough to hammer the stock even more after hours, TSLA is soaring due to these four paragraphs in the company's "product outlook" section, which promise what everyone has been hoping for: cheaper cars are coming and sooner than expected, meaning Reuters indeed lied (it also mentions the robotaxi whose August 8 unveil Musk hinted at recently):
We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.
These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.
This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.
Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy.
An earlier launch of cheaper EVs would be a reversal of the Reuters news around a cheaper Tesla model being pushed back, which musk already pushed back on. Arguably Tesla does not need to just release a model to compete with a Toyota Camry to see further growth. BYD, for example, has dozens of models out there for consumers to choose from. Tesla, meanwhile, has opted for less model variety and that has contributed to some of the challenges they’ve faced.
Here are some other highlights from the company's Outlook section:
Volume: Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next generation vehicle and other products. In 2024, the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in our Energy Generation and Storage business should outpace the Automotive business.
Cash: We have sufficient liquidity to fund our product roadmap, long-term capacity expansion plans and other expenses. Furthermore, we will manage the business such that we maintain a strong balance sheet during this uncertain period.
Profit: While we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations, over time, we expect our hardware-related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software and fleet-based profits.
Some more details from the presentation:
Tesla notes (on page 7) that it produced 1,000 Cybertrucks in a single week in April. Positive ramping signs, although the Cybertrucks were recently recalled due to issues with its pedal.
Working capital remains a big issue: global vehicle inventory rose to 28 days, a huge jump from the 15 days at the end of the last quarter.
Tesla said that production at Gigafactory Shanghai was down sequentially due to seasonality and planned shutdowns around Chinese New Year in Q1. It also notes that demand typically improves throughout the year, and as it enters new markets, "such as Chile, many of them will be supplied from Gigafactory Shanghai.”
There was the following interesting acknowledgmenet: “Global EV sales continue to be under pressure as many carmakers prioritize hybrids over EVs. While positive for our regulatory credits business, we prefer the industry to continue pushing EV adoption, which is in-line with our mission.”
Turning to the company's battery division, Tesla deployed a record amount of energy storage for the quarter – 4,053 megawatt-hours – topping its prior record by 2%. Tesla has become a dominant force in the storage business, vying with competitors such as Fluence Energy and Sungrow Power Supply to deploy big batteries that can back up solar plants or prevent blackouts on the electric grid. That market is growing at breakneck speed, with US deployments in the fourth quarter jumping 358% compared to the same period of 2022, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Still, as Bloomberg notes, probably for the first time since it bought SolarCity, Tesla didn’t disclose its quarterly deployments of solar, instead noting the following: "In its Energy Generation and Storage business: “Revenues were up 7% YoY and gross profit was up 140% YoY, driven by increased Megapack deployments, partially offset by a decrease in solar deployments." In Q4, the company deployed 41 megawatts.
Another notable highlight: the company has previewed what ride-hailing will look like using the TSLA app. Watch out Waymo and Uber, TSLA is coming for you:
And so, with the stock having cratered in the past week, sliding for a record-matching 7 consecutive days, the market is finally happy with what Musk revealed and the stock is sharply higher after hours, surging some 6% and erasing the 4 most recent days of losses...
... although much will depend on Musk's tone during the earnings call, where TSLA's overtime fate will be decided.
Bonds & Stocks Bid As 'Bad News'-Buyers Trump CTA-Sellers
'Bad news' was certainly good news today as 'soft' survey data showed the US Manufacturing sector dropping back into contraction (<50) and Services sliding too (with pries rising), sending US MAcro Surprise dats slumping..
Source: Bloomberg
That gave 2024 rate-cut odds a small lift...
Source: Bloomberg
..which seemed all the markets wanted to be able to extend yesterday's big squeeze as stocks soared from the open... The Dow was the laggard on the day with Small Caps the biggest gainer, but all the majors ended green...
0-DTE traders faded the opening ramp aggressively but were force to cover as the afternoon wore on. Notably the positive delta flow from 0-DTE did nothing to boost stocks suggesting there were 'fundamental' sellers offsetting that flow...
Yesterday's 'short squeeze' was dwarfed by today's extending the gains from yesterday's lows in the 'most shorted' basket to today's highs to over 6%... - the biggest two-day squeeze since late-Feb. We do note that in context, this is not so impressive, but every trend starts as a reversal...
Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks rallied again, but were unable to get back to even on the week and started to run out of steam into close ahead of TSLA's earnings...
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing the trend of the last two days, Goldman's trading desk noted that hedgies were buying and long-only's were selling:
Our floor is skewed 6% better to buy overall with HFs driving most of our flows. The HF demand is a function of Info Tech Buying (again... mix of LC Tech, semis, select SW), Discretionary demand (mostly e-commerce), Industrials, Comms Svcs, Energy, and Staples... Hcare is the only Sector being sold by HFs. Short Ratios are moderate to low today
LOs are selling Info Tech (pockets of SW), Energy selling, Comm Svcs, Fins.
Additionally, they highlighted the following chart showing the number of Nasdaq components below their 50DMA was at the same levels as the October 2023 swing lows as we rip here...
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, Goldman's 'Vol Panic' Index is off the highs... but not by much (ahead of thee big event risk this week)...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed by the close (with 30Y +1bps, 2Y -5bps), but all well off their overnight (pre-bad-news) high yields of the day...
Source: Bloomberg
Once again, 5.00% was too much for the 2Y yield to handle...
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve steepened dramatically, off pre-CPI levels from last week...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dived on the (dovish) bad news, back to Thursday's lows...
Source: Bloomberg
USDJPY just couldn't get it together. Twice they tried to rally the JPY against the USD and twice they failed (just look at last Friday too)... Jawboning is just not doing it guys...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended the day basically unchanged having recovered from yesterday evening's puke...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin also ended the day unchanged, around $67,000...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices traded a perfect 'V' today, dumping overnight *WTI testing an $80 handle) before finding support and ramping up above $83...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, tonight brings us TSLA earnings... 0-DTE traders were buying into the close...
