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'Great Injustice Reversed': Belgian Soccer Furious As FIFA Allows Suspended US Star To Play

Just after 2:00 p.m. (ET) today, President Trump published the following statement on Truth Social:

What is he talking about? What is the "great injustice"?

As Noel S. Williams explains via American Thinker, he's referring to the moment during the U.S. vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina World Cup match when the referee issued a bizarre, unwarranted red card to star striker Folarin Balogun.

Initially, that made him ineligible to play in the crucial last-16 match against Belgium on Monday. Great or not, there was an injustice - I just hope Karma and those mercurial soccer gods agree in the coming days.

It's clear that Balogun didn't deliberately stamp on the B&H defender's ankle.

I just wonder, now that FIFA has bent over backward to re-institute his eligibility to play against Belgium, if that will dull the U.S. team's cutting edge. Sometimes, when a team feels "hard done by," it solidifies their sanctimonious indignation, giving them more power.

Our team is already pulling together, but the "great injustice" added more "all for one, and one for all" spirit.

Given President Trump's post, the spotlight has just intensified on an individual player.

Additionally, the media is piling on, increasing performance expectations upon a person they describe as our best striker (with some creative player repositioning, Christian Pulisic could be deployed as a striker). Plus, there are other options. We have brilliant players all over the field, actually.

In a statement, the US Soccer Federation said:

WE ACCEPT THE DECISION OF THE DISCIPLINARY COMMITTEE AND ARE PLEASED THAT FOLARIN BALOGUN IS ELIGIBLE TO COMPETE TOMORROW.

OUR FULL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE ROUND OF 16 MATCH AGAINST BELGIUM IN SEATTLE, AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO THE CONTINUED SUPPORT OF OUR AMAZING FANS.

Understandably, the Belgian Soccer Federation is furious:

"The Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA) is astonished by FIFA's decision to declare suspended United States player Folarin Balogun eligible to play in the USA–Belgium match on Monday, 6 July at 5:00 p.m. (Seattle time).

FIFA bases its decision on Article 27 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code.

...

❗️In order to safeguard the legitimate rights of all participating teams and to protect the fundamental principles of fair play in our sport, both at this FIFA World Cup and at future editions of the tournament, the RBFA is investigating all potential options."

With the Belgian coach exclaiming: "I did not know that July 4th was April Fools day..."

US odds improved after the suspension was lifted...

Go USA!

But before that, Go England!!

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OPEC+ Approves Another Oil Output Increase As Hormuz Exports Start To Recover

OPEC+ agreed a further increase in output targets from August, the group said in a statement on Sunday, ‌adding to global supply at a time when oil prices are falling due to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. 

The oil-producing cartel, which recently lost the UAE as a core member, agreed during an online meeting to increase quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August, on top of similar increases for June and July. That said, the producers reserved the right to increase, pause, or reverse the phase-out, including the November 2023 cuts already unwound. Furthermore, every country that overproduced since January 2024 still has to fully compensate for it, tracked monthly by the JMMC. 

The seven ​core members of OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have hiked their output quotas from April through July ​by almost 800,000 bpd. Yet the increase has remained largely on paper because of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, ⁠which closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic for some of the most important OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and ​Iraq.

According to Reuters, OPEC+ output fell to 33.13 million bpd in May, according to OPEC data, from 42.77 million bpd in February. It began ​to recover in June thanks to U.S. efforts to help the UAE and other OPEC+ nations export more oil, but is still below pre-war levels.

Despite persisting supply disruptions, oil prices have returned to pre-war levels, pressured by sharply lower Chinese imports, higher exports from non-Middle East producers, and a record global strategic stock release coordinated ​by the International Energy Agency.

"The group of seven kept unwinding their production cuts as widely expected," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "The near-term focus ​will remain on how many tankers will manage to cross the Strait of Hormuz and how quickly demand and Chinese crude imports recover."

A memorandum of understanding ‌between Washington ⁠and Tehran to end the war, which has been breached on several occasions but is still holding, has also helped convince traders that supply will ultimately return to normal levels.

Brent crude prices traded near $72 per barrel on Friday, down from recent peaks of more than $120 per barrel and back to levels traded just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

Besides agreeing production targets, OPEC+ is also facing other challenges after the United Arab Emirates left ​the group and Iraq signaled it wants ​higher quotas.

OPEC+ includes 21 members ⁠including Iran, but in recent years only the seven nations - and the UAE until its departure - have been involved in monthly production management. Those seven producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, are ​boosting output as part of the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut agreed ​in 2023, when ⁠the group still included the UAE.

In a stunning twist, the UAE quit the alliance in late April because it wanted to align its capacity more closely with its production, free of production restraints imposed by the group. From August, taking into account the UAE's exit from May 1, the seven core members will still ⁠have about ​379,000 bpd of the original cut to return to the market, according to ​Reuters calculations.

With the August increase now decided, they will have fully unwound the 2023 cut if they make one more hike of around the same size for September at ​their next meeting on August 2.

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The Biggest Problem With AI Today

By Christopher Penn, of Almost Timely News

What’s the biggest problem in AI today? Is it cost, with token budgets being blown out of the water by agentic AI? Is it sustainability, with AI consuming electricity and fresh water? Is it ethics, with tech companies cramming AI into everything?

I think it’s deeper than that. Those are all symptoms of a much deeper-rooted problem: nobody’s making decisions.

Or more correctly, we’ve abdicated far too much of our executive function to AI. We’ve surrendered our thinking

Let’s dig in.

Part 1: Where This Issue Came From

On Friday afternoon, I was mulling over what I wanted to cover in this week’s issue. It’s a holiday weekend here in the USA, so not as many folks will be reading, and that’s okay. (I appreciate that YOU are) And I’ve covered a ton recently:

So on a whim, I set up a NotebookLM with the last 180 days of conversations from over 40 different subreddits, like r/marketing, r/chatgpt, etc. - everything around marketing, business, and AI. I connected it to Claude Code with the NotebookLM command line tool (the most token—efficient way for Claude to talk to NotebookLM), and then put all of my 2026 newsletters year to date into an input folder.

I asked Claude to compare what I’ve written about thus far this year with what folks are finding their hardest problems are with AI. Claude spit out a list of 10 major things derived from over 800,000 words of foaming at the mouth on Reddit that it thought might be good newsletter topics:

  • AI Visibility challenges
  • Agentic oversight is degrading
  • AI deployment is broken
  • 40-60% of company budget is wasted on the wrong models
  • AI is a rental
  • AI sycophancy is screwing up synthetic focus groups
  • AI detectors don’t work
  • AI is hollowing out corporations and no one’s hiring junior staff
  • People measure AI by tokenmaxxing
  • Marketers are basically unpaid labor for AI companies training data

Claude was REALLY pushing for me to write about how measurement is broken in marketing and AI today, and I might do that at some point, but that’s not what I see when I look at this laundry list. Yes, there are measurement issues in many of them, data issues in many of them, but... measurement being broken is the symptom of what I said earlier - we’ve abdicated executive function.

For those who aren’t analytics nerds, you know that measurement is a trailing indicator. It’s not a leading indicator.

Part 2: Executive Function Recap

As a reminder, I bucket executive function into four categories that I call PODS:

  • Plan: you think about achieving something in the future and make a plan to get there from here
  • Organize: you take what you have and try to make sense of it
  • Decide: you take what you have and make decisions about it
  • Solve: you solve the problems you have

Yes, there is more nuance to executive function than this, but this handy, short list is an easy way to see what our brains are doing. That’s critical thinking, one of the worst-named practices we have.

Why? Because critical thinking isn’t about being critical, per se. It’s about metacognition - the definition of which is thinking about thinking. When you’re thinking about how you think, you open the door to improvements, to growth.

Thinking about thinking means asking questions and reflecting - is this the best way to do something? How could I do this better? How could I derive more enjoyment from this thing I’m doing? It’s not criticizing yourself as much as it is recognizing what you’re doing and whether it’s working or not.

When you’re planning, organizing, deciding, and solving, you’re inherently thinking about thinking. Every time you plan, every time you bring order to chaos, you have to check in with your own brain to see if what you’re doing is moving you closer to the goal posts.

Executive function is one of the things that defines our sentience as living creatures. Every sentient creature from a mouse to us does these tasks. You’ve read or heard stories about crows fashioning tools from wire to solve problems, you’ve watched dogs and cats make decisions and plan. I’ve watched my own cat measure optically whether or not she can make a particular jump.

Properly prompted, today’s AI tools are superb at executive functions as well. Given the right frameworks, harnesses, and data, they can plan, organize, decide, and solve better than we can at most language-based tasks.

And therein lies the actual problem.

Part 3: The Tale of the Tape

Let’s look at each of the 10 topics Claude suggested to see the threads that connect them.

AI Visibility challenges: when you read the verbatims of what people are saying about AI visibility measurement, you can tell they’re pretty much making it up. This is especially true of software vendors that are offering and peddling solutions that have very little grounding in reality - and yet, stakeholders eat this stuff up because they’d rather have certainty about a wrong number than accept uncertainty or no number at all. they are not thinking about their thinking.

Agentic oversight is degrading: the commenters on Reddit focused on the fact that as agents get more sophisticated, it’s harder and harder to follow along to see what they’re doing. So we just hit OK all the time - if we’re even thinking about a human in the loop. We’ve forfeit our authority here. In fact, some AI tools have this built in as a feature. Claude calls it dangerously skip permissions. Qwen calls it YOLO mode.

AI deployment is broken: here, the discussion is about stakeholders telling their stakeholders that the organization has deployed AI without any sense of the impact that it’s had. One poster cited a statistic that 29% of companies see significant ROI from AI, even though individual employees are claiming 5x productivity increases. The math doesn’t math. Here, people don’t want to think and reflect about what deployment even means. Katie’s been writing a lot about this in the Trust Insights newsletter the last few weeks. At its heart, we are confusing using AI with getting results out of AI.

40-60% of budget is wasted: here, folks are talking about how everyone just accepts the default model in AI tools, which is typically the most expensive one. Claude, for example, defaults to Opus 4.8, which is a much more expensive model than Sonnet 5 or Haiku 4.5. We’re not thinking. We’re not making decisions about cost trade-offs versus effectiveness. Another person pointed out that this is by design to create habits. It’s about habit formation for the most expensive models so that when the subsidization of today’s AI ends, we are accustomed to using the most expensive models. This is brain hijacking in a way.

AI is a rental: in this particular topic, the discussion centers around what you actually own in AI, which is very little if you are using today’s closed weights frontier models. Particularly Anthropic’s on-again, off-again rollout of Fable 5, thanks to U.S. export controls, was a wake-up call to the entire industry that you don’t own anything in SaaS, any more than you own music in Spotify or own videos in Netflix - but people think they do.

Sycophancy in focus groups: even though we have good academic research showing that properly prompted AI models can emulate human purchase intent with about 90% accuracy, the level of sycophancy in AI models steers them towards confirmation bias in most situations. This is especially true of synthetic focus groups; when people use AI to simulate consumer intent, what they’re really doing is reinforcing their own biases most of the time. There’s no reflection or questioning the AI output.

AI detectors don’t work: A perpetual favorite topic of mine. This thread of conversation revolved around how companies are using AI detectors to identify the use of AI in situations where it’s not appropriate, without recognizing that the detectors themselves are also broken. In testing I did 3 weeks ago now, AI detectors falsely flagged human outputs 1 out of 7 times. No one is thinking and reflecting enough about who’s watching the watchers.

AI is hollowing out companies: I really liked this quote from the agency owners subreddit:

What’s strange is nobody decided this. There was no meeting where we discussed this. We automated one annoying task, then another, and one day the job had hollowed out from the inside.

This erosion of tasks is all about a lack of cognition, a lack of reflection, a lack of a plan. No one’s making decisions - just leaving it up to the machines, a bit more each day.

Tokenmaxxing: this was reflecting on Meta’s most recent news story in which they were on track to spend several billion dollars in AI tokens because they measured AI productivity based on token spend, the dumbest possible way to measure AI.

Marketers as unpaid trainers: this was a whole bunch of ranting about how marketers are effectively unpaid trainers for AI platforms. The more content we produce, the more AI has to train on while simultaneously competing for the tasks we’re paid to do. Here, the thread was about how the average marketer isn’t thinking or reflecting about their relationship to AI.

And this laundry list of 10 items isn’t everything, not by a long shot. Think about how else people use AI without thinking, without thinking about their thinking. Go on LinkedIn and look at the endless streams of comment-bots all paraphrasing the same template over and over again. Look at the workslop flooding your inbox, read the reports your agencies send you that are clearly copy paste jobs.

When we put aside the direction that Claude wanted to nudge this issue of the newsletter, it becomes pretty apparent that it’s really about how much we think about thinking. How self-aware are we? How well and accurately do we perceive our relationship with AI?

Most of all, do we see the amount of executive function we’ve ceded to AI?

Part 4: The Antidote

“Nobody decided this” is haunting me. When you hand off executive functions to AI, who is making the decisions? No one. There’s no one accountable for a decision because the machine is making it for us. Whether it’s building a PowerPoint deck, assembling a report for a client, creating content for a newsletter, when the machine does it, there’s no accountability and there’s no decision making on our part other than approving it.

And this leads to a bunch of bad outcomes, everything from job loss to dissatisfaction with your own work. You know, when you use AI to offload a task, that you didn’t do the work - and you take no pride in it, any more than you’d take pride in the work that a contractor did on your behalf.

Think about this in the context of parents. Go to any parent’s house and you’ll likely see art that the kids made when they were young. The art is generally, objectively, pretty bad. But the parent values it not because of the quality of the art, but because of the level of effort made by the child. They take pride in their child’s efforts, and the child takes pride in what they did in their efforts. For good or ill, when people use AI, they themselves feel like they haven’t made an effort, and the person on the receiving end also feels like they didn’t make an effort.

Sometimes, you don’t even understand the work if you’ve outsourced it. You present it to your stakeholders, and the first question they ask that isn’t in the prepared materials leads to panic city because you can’t answer it, like buying a cake at the store instead of baking it yourself and then having someone ask if a specific allergen is in it. And you’re left scrambling, looking for the label to see what’s actually in the cake.

So my suggested antidote is this: for every task that matters, always start with someting you lead, and force the machines to educate you.

For example, when I compile monthly reports for Trust Insights clients, I turn on my voice recorder and I review the data myself. I talk out loud what I see, what I think, what makes sense and what doesn’t make sense, and then I have AI transcribe it. After the transcription is complete, I ask AI to review it and show me what I missed. I ask it to ask me questions, to record more information, to fish more information from me.

I also ask it, especially around anything in my subject matter expertise, to find me resources to learn and read about its recommendations. Recently, I was asking it to choose from a catalog I’d prepared of over 1,000 different analytical techniques, and it chose an interesting ensemble of 3 techniques, one of which I didn’t know well. So I had it teach me that, so that instead of me passively accepting its recommendations, I learned something. I got better as a professional. I grew my subject matter expertise.

If you think about it, this is not only rational from the perspective of delivering great quality work, it’s also rational from the perspective of my value. If I’m nothing more than a copy paste drone, a meat-based interface to an LLM, then why does my company need me? Why would my clients pay for me when they could just pay to ask ChatGPT or Claude the exact same things?

What they’re paying for is my expertise, my skills not only at using the technology, but the specific lens I direct it with, and the perspective that only I can bring. And if I’m using AI to constantly improve that expertise, to improve that domain knowledge, then they should keep paying for me.

Outside my subject matter expertise, I start with deep research, using AI tools to gather information and then having them create a synthesis. Once I’ve got that, then I have it create a checklist of what constitutes quality in the domain I’m working in. Finally, I sit down with the creations and I read and learn for myself. I have AI make infographics or podcast summaries to learn the domain so that I can connect it to my expertise.

Agentic AI - tools like Claude Code, OpenCode, etc. - are phenomenal researchers, far better than the web-based deep research tools folks have become accustomed to in the past couple of years. When you use a research agent, it has a lot more latitude to gather up sources, to take the time to write down notes and observations, and to synthesize conclusions from the data it has. If you use something like the Trust Insights CASINO research framework, you’ll get some amazing results from the tools that tend to have fewer hallucinations than their web-based counterparts.

Then with that research data in hand, you use it to become a better professional within your domain. You use it to level yourself up. You use it to add to your insights instead of substitute for your insights.

Part 5: Wrapping Up

The biggest problem in AI today is the delegation of our executive function to machines. Whether it’s accountability (machines have none), deskilling, or dissatisfaction with our work, the moment we forfeit executive function is the moment when AI becomes more problem than solution.

We can boil it all down to a simple set of questions:

  1. Does the use of AI make the output better?

  2. Does the use of AI make me better?

If the answer isn’t yes to BOTH, then you’re not using it well.

Properly used, AI is one of the greatest professional development tools ever created.

Improperly used, it’s one of the most destructive forces your career has ever known, because the moment you offload a task to AI, your own skills at that task get rusty.

And once something becomes rusty enough, it’s cheaper and easier to replace it.

More in the Almost Timely Newsletter

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Japan Bankruptcies Surge To All-Time High As A Result Of Plunging Yen

In recent months one of the more frequent questions in FX trading has been the relentless collapse in the yen, which recently sank below a 40 year low despite rate differentials stubbornly headed in the opposite direction, and is increasingly flirting with levels which on previous occasions always prompted BOJ intervention.

Among the reasons cited for the chronic weakness of the Japanese currency have been the following three:

  1. Real short-term rates in Japan are negative, which is why Ueda has been slow to hike
  2. There is a growing perception that Japan's PM Takaichi doesn't want a higher rates or a stronger yen.  A weak yen certainly helps big JP firms profits (while hurting households) so there is a clear weak yen constituency inside the LDP. Japanese financial institutions are also short the yen generally
  3. JP financial institutions (notably lifer insurers) see the upfront cost of hedging (the nominal ST rate differential) and have made a mint on unhedged fx assets, and they have been reluctant to change their position just because the yen looks exceptionally undervalued.

Effectively a feedback loop has emerged, whereby the weaker yen leads to an even weaker yen, and despite token resistance by the BOJ - the latest long overdue rate hike being an example - the market clearly anticipates further weakness in the currency, and is pushing it to new lows.

However, a limit to the yen's weakness is now emerging, and it goes to the growing damage on the country's households noted in point 2 above.

As Bloomberg reports, Japan’s weak currency caused the most bankruptcies for the first half of a year since 2022, underscoring the growing economic costs of the currency’s slump. 

Forty-five firms failed from January to June for that reason, up more than 30% from a year earlier, according to a report by Tokyo Shoko Research published last Wednesday. The figure was the highest since 2022, when the data firm started counting companies that specifically cite currency weakness in filing for bankruptcy.

The findings suggest the smaller firms that employ most of Japan’s workers are finding it increasingly difficult to withstand the yen’s prolonged weakness, casting a shadow over the nation’s economy, even as large-cap exporters benefit. 

The data also strengthen the case for continued interest-rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. While higher borrowing costs alone would typically push more firms toward insolvency, closing the gap with US rates could help support the yen.

The yen has steadily weakened against the dollar in recent years as US interest rates climbed to combat pandemic-era inflation while Japanese rates were negative to break free of deflation. While the rate differential has since narrowed, a rally in the dollar and high oil prices from the war in Iran are pressuring the yen.  

The yen hit a new 40 year low of 162 per dollar on Thursday, before rising higher amid some speculation that Japan's financial authorities may finally seek to rein it in. While the weaker currency has boosted exporters’ earnings, it has also driven up import costs, squeezing profit margins across a broad range of import-dependent industries, and has also helped sustain the worst inflation in Japan's recent history.  

The conflict in the Middle East has also drastically boosted costs. A price index for raw materials and merchandise purchases among a broad range of smaller firms surged in the second quarter, according to a survey by the Organization for Small & Medium Enterprises and Regional Innovation. The Bank of Japan’s producer price index has also jumped in recent months.

Tokyo Shoko Research’s report showed bankruptcies were particularly concentrated in the wholesale sector. One example was Tokyo-based Merry Time Foods, an importer of crab, shrimp and tuna from other parts of Asia. The company went bankrupt in May, citing deteriorating profitability due to the weak yen and political instability in its supplier countries.

The research firm said in the report that currency-related bankruptcies are likely to remain elevated for some time, particularly among wholesalers, retailers and manufacturers with limited pricing power.

According to Bloomberg, the strain has been acute for small- and mid-sized businesses, who are more affected by higher borrowing costs than their larger counterparts. They’re also contending with mounting wage hike pressures amid persistent labor shortages. Smaller firms often have limited ability to pass higher costs onto customers due to intense competition.

“The weak yen is one contributing factor,” said Yoshihiro Sakata, manager at Tokyo Shoko Research. “Combined with inflation and rising labor costs, it is creating a cumulative burden on businesses.”

Another source of pressure on smaller businesses may be foreign-exchange hedging, including the use of so-called reverse knockout options, according to Yuji Saito, executive adviser at SBI FXTrade. Such products are widely sold by regional banks as structured hedging products, particularly to small and regional importers seeking to minimize upfront option premiums.

Once the exchange rate reaches a preset knockout level, the option expires and the hedge ceases to provide protection. Companies needing dollars must then either purchase them in the spot market, enter into a new hedge - often at less favorable levels - or leave themselves exposed to further currency moves.

“The weaker the yen gets, the more importers roll into increasingly risky option structures,” Saito said. “Once the knockout level is breached, they are forced to buy dollars in the spot market, creating a negative spiral that puts even more downward pressure on the yen."

Analysts estimate that remaining reverse knockout levels are clustered between 163 and 170 yen per dollar, territory that many firms didn’t think the currency would reach as intervention from the central bank would likely be forthcoming due to the adverse economic impact of such unprecedented currency collapse.

“The number of knockouts could increase if the yen weakens further,” said Hiroyuki Machida, director of Japan FX and commodities sales at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The situation is becoming significant for companies that are unable to pass on higher costs.”

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These Are The World's Top Destinations For Wealth Migration

Countries are increasingly competing to attract wealthy individuals alongside businesses and skilled workers. For many governments, internationally mobile wealth represents a source of investment, entrepreneurship, and long-term economic growth.

This graphic, via Visual Cspitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, ranks the world’s most competitive destinations for wealth migration using data from The Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2026, which evaluates countries across 12 factors including tax policy, investor pathways, regulatory quality, and overall business environment.

The Most Competitive Countries for Wealth Migration

Below, countries are measured by their competitiveness for attracting internationally mobile wealth.

Singapore leads globally, ahead of New Zealand and the Cayman Islands. Europe also performs strongly, with the Netherlands, Cyprus, Portugal, Italy, Switzerland, and Greece all appearing in the top 15.

Singapore’s position reflects its combination of low taxes, political stability, and business-friendly policies. Together, these strengths have made it one of the safest countries for investors, and a magnet for wealth across Asia.

Small Countries Stand Out

One of the clearest patterns is the strength of smaller economies. Overall, 11 of the 16 most competitive countries have populations under 10 million.

Many of these countries have spent decades building investor-friendly ecosystems. Singapore offers a globally connected financial hub, Cyprus provides attractive residency pathways, and Switzerland combines political stability with an established private banking industry.

Rather than relying on domestic market size, many of these countries compete by offering predictable regulation, efficient tax systems, strong legal institutions, and straightforward pathways for investors to establish residency or relocate wealth.

The U.S. Falls Behind

Despite having the world’s largest economy, the U.S. faces several structural challenges in attracting wealth.

Citizenship-based taxation, fiscal complexity, longer investor processing times, and political polarization are among the factors weighing on its score. By contrast, many higher-ranked countries offer simpler tax regimes, making them more attractive to internationally mobile wealth.

Unlike most countries, the U.S. taxes its citizens on worldwide income regardless of where they live, a feature that can increase tax burdens for internationally mobile individuals.

Why Countries Are Competing for Wealth

Countries are increasingly competing for more than businesses and skilled workers. They are also competing for private capital.

In 2025 alone, nearly 1 million people globally became millionaires, highlighting the growing pool of internationally mobile wealth.

High-net-worth individuals often relocate with businesses, investment capital, and philanthropic spending. As global wealth continues to grow, attracting even a relatively small number of affluent residents can have an outsized economic impact, particularly for smaller countries.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s most powerful passports.

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Historians Set Record Straight On 5 Events That Shaped America

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

As America celebrates its 250th birthday, it’s prime time for historians such as Jeff Bloodworth to set the record straight.

Bloodworth, a professor at Pennsylvania’s Gannon University, noted that it had become trendy among historians to “demythologize” the Founding Fathers.

“But it has gone too far,” he told The Epoch Times. “The achievements of the Founders and the founding are obscured by the lists of sins.”

Now, he thinks “the pendulum is swinging back” toward a more balanced, nuanced, and accurate view of the Founders—and about other aspects of American history.

Through his role with Heterodox Academy—a bipartisan group advocating for open inquiry on college campuses—Bloodworth said he sees “there’s a real pushback against this stuff.”

Any fair appraisal of the Founders requires “lauding their achievements but also recognizing their omissions and their flaws and their hypocrisies,” he said.

Bloodworth and two other historians who spoke to The Epoch Times shed light on myths, misrepresentations, and misunderstandings about the nation’s foundational period; The Epoch Times also reviewed dozens of historic references for this story.

Without historical knowledge, it’s easy to “get sucked into believing things have never been worse, that there’s never been a time like this—and that just isn’t true,” Bloodworth said.

Jeff Bloodworth, professor of history, holds up a copy of his book

Stanley Schwartz, a professor at Cedarville University in Ohio, echoed many of Bloodworth’s observations.

Stanley Schwartz, assistant professor of history at Cedarville University in Cedarville, Ohio. Courtesy of Cedarville University

When students question how early American history relates to them, he responds that issues the Founders faced remain relevant. Those include “how to govern well,” he said, along with “how to relate to foreign powers.”

Many students who expected to be bored in class end up realizing that history “speaks to a person, helps you find your roots, find your place in the world,” Schwartz said.

Anna Vincenzi, a professor at Hillsdale College in Michigan, said learning about America’s history fulfills “a deeply human need ... to know the truth about where we came from.” That knowledge helps people understand “the good things about the history that has brought us here, and also the origin of the problems.”

The Boston Tea Party and Why It Happened

On Dec. 16, 1773, hundreds of angry colonists—many disguised as Native Americans—dumped 92,000 pounds of tea into Boston Harbor.

The Boston Tea Party thus became one of the most iconic acts of defiance in U.S. history. Yet modern Americans often misconstrue the reasons for the protest and overestimate its aftereffects, historians say.

Yes, the British Parliament’s passage of the Tea Act of 1773 sparked the protest. But contrary to popular modern belief, the act resulted in lower tea prices.

So why did the act anger the colonists so much?

Part of the reason: It reinforced an existing import tax on tea.

Another factor: Drinking tea is so quintessentially British that “taxing tea is ... like making them feel like they’re not quite British,” Vincenzi said. “It was perceived as a statement on their status as British citizens.”

A work of art by Nathaniel Currier depicts the 1773 Boston Tea Party, entitled “The Destruction of Tea at Boston Harbor,” created in 1846. Colonists known as the “Sons of Liberty” dressed as Mohawk American Indians and smashed 342 chests of tea and emptied the contents—valued at nearly $2 million today—on Dec. 16, 1773. Public Domain

The larger issue, however, was that colonists had no representation in the British Parliament. Yet Parliament repeatedly imposed policies “without the consent of the people through their representatives, in a way that they say is violating the rights and liberties of a British citizen,” Vincenzi said.

Those actions conflicted with the British constitution’s traditional limits on the king’s power, dating to the 13th century, she said.

At the time of the tea party, American colonists were drinking about 1.2 million pounds of tea each year. Much of it came from England and was subject to taxes imposed by the Townshend Revenue Act, according to the Boston Tea Party Ships and Museum.

American colonists started smuggling lower-priced tea from the Dutch and other European markets.

In response, Parliament imposed the Tea Act, which helped a private British company, the East India Tea Company, undercut prices of the smuggled tea. If colonists bought that cheaper, British-subsidized tea, they still would be forced to pay the Townshend Act’s import duty.

Thus, many colonists feared that acquiescing would embolden the British government to impose even more taxes.

The Sons of Liberty—some of whom were tea smugglers—began organizing meetings to address “the tea crisis.”

Up to 6,000 people met on Nov. 29, 1773, after the first shipload of unwanted tea docked in Boston Harbor. Attendees reached a consensus: The tea would be sent back to England and no tax would be paid.

An engraving made by John Karst in 1865 depicts John Lamb, a Sons of Liberty leader, reading the British Parliament’s Tea Act of of 1773 at New York City Hall on Dec. 17, 1773. Colonists took issue with the Act as they had no representation in the British Parliament. John Karst/Public Domain

After exhausting all legal remedies to achieve those goals, leaders executed their last-ditch secret plan: trashing the tea.

Protesters donned wool blankets, grabbed tomahawks, and smeared coal dust on their faces—called “Indian dress” then. The disguises weren’t meant to be convincing; they mostly served to conceal identities so protesters could avoid punishment.

Tea partiers smashed 342 chests of tea and emptied the contents—valued at nearly $2 million today.

The protest had an impact—but not in the way many people might think.

“While the Tea Party itself didn’t mobilize Americans en masse, it was Parliament’s reaction to it that did,” according to a History.com article.

In 1774, the British enacted “punitive measures meant to teach the rebellious colonists who was boss,” the article said. The British closed Boston Harbor, replaced Boston’s elected officials with the king’s appointees, and forced private citizens to quarter British troops in their homes.

Those actions inspired colonists to hold the first Continental Congress meeting.

“Revolution was officially in the air,” the article said.

Colonial fife and drum corps play in front of the Old South Meeting House during the Boston Tea Party 250th Anniversary celebration, in Boston in 2023. The Boston Tea Party has became one of the most iconic acts of defiance in American history. Courtesy of Caroline Talbot/December 16.org

Patriot Paul Revere and ‘The British Are Coming!’

Revere was among “many messengers spreading the alarm” across the Massachusetts countryside on April 18 and 19, 1775, according to the National Park Service.

The Revere-as-lone-rider myth arose partly from the celebrated poem “Paul Revere’s Ride” by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow. It omits any mention that other horsemen helped alert townspeople about British soldiers heading toward Concord.

There, the soldiers intended “to arrest patriots and seize colonial militia stockpiles,” the CIA said in an April 2026 article.

Notably, before his famous ride, Revere and others formed “the first Patriot intelligence group on record,” the CIA said in a report about the role intelligence played in the American Revolution.

Called “The Mechanics” or “The Liberty Boys,” the secret group of about 30 men grew out of the old Sons of Liberty organization that opposed British taxes on colonists, the CIA said.

A statue of Paul Revere near Old North Church in Boston on April 8, 2026. Historical records from that era suggest that Revere did not shout “The British are coming!” Instead he warned, “The regulars are coming!” The term, “regulars,” referred to the British professional soldiers. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

Starting in late 1774, the group gathered information to oppose British authority. In 1775, operatives exposed “the cover story the British had devised to mask their march on Lexington and Concord,” the CIA said.

That information laid the foundation for Revere’s ride.

As he rode, Revere never shouted, “The British are coming!”

That phrase “would not have made sense at the time,” because many of Revere’s fellow colonists considered themselves to be British, according to the Paul Revere House website.

Historical records from that era suggest that Revere instead warned, “The regulars are coming!” The term “regulars” referred to the British professional soldiers.

According to the Paul Revere House, the enduring but inaccurate “British are coming” phrase appears to have originated during a dinner party in 1822—nearly a half-century after Revere galloped into history.

(Top) The Marrett and Nathan Munroe House in Lexington, Mass., on March 26, 2025. (Bottom) The Buckman Tavern on the Lexington Battle Green. The Battle of Lexington, which began the American Revolution, took place in this area. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

‘The Shot Heard ’Round the World’ and Its Origin

Historians still disagree over who fired the first shot in the initial clash between British troops and Patriots.

They do agree that the first volleys were fired at Lexington, but the next ones fired at Concord reverberated more loudly in history.

Weeks before those pivotal confrontations, Revere’s secret group had forewarned Patriots about British Gen. Thomas Gage’s plans to send troops to Lexington and Concord.

Late on April 18, 1775, about 800 British regulars started their 20-mile march toward Concord, according to the American Battlefield Trust.

After covering about 12 miles, the soldiers reached Lexington as the sun rose the next morning and confronted about 70 armed colonists on the town green.

Although the rebels began dispersing under their commander’s order, “at some point a shot rang out,” the trust said.

“The nervous British soldiers fired a volley, killing seven and mortally wounding one of the retreating militiamen. The British column moved on towards Concord, leaving the dead, wounded, and dying in their wake.”

An oil painting by William Barnes Wollen created in 1910 depicts the Battle of Lexington on April 19, 1775. About 800 British soldiers reached Lexington as the sun rose on April 19, 1775, and confronted about 70 armed colonists on the town green. Public Domain

In Concord, because of warnings from Revere’s secret group, colonists had hidden or relocated most of their stockpile before the redcoats arrived, the park service notes.

As a result, “the mission to destroy military goods in Concord turned out to be a miserable failure for the British,” the park service said.

The British soldiers also encountered a much larger contingent in Concord.

Within 24 hours, “more than 70 of the King’s finest troops lay dead and many more wounded,” along with 49 militiamen, the park service said. “Following a horrific day of bloodshed, the war General Gage hoped to avoid arrived at his doorstep.”

Many years later, a poem immortalized Concord as the site where a ragtag bunch of farmers, merchants, and blacksmiths stunned the world by overcoming the sophisticated redcoats.

“Concord Hymn” by Ralph Waldo Emerson debuted July 4, 1837, during the dedication of a Battle of Concord monument. The poem’s second line reads, “Here once the embattled farmers stood/ And fired the shot heard ‘round the world.”

Decades later, the 1970s educational cartoon series “Schoolhouse Rock” inspired children across the United States to sing “Shot Heard ’Round the World,” a song that retraces early U.S. history. Today, it still sparks nostalgia among Americans who grew up at that time—and amusement among younger generations.

(Top and Bottom) The Lexington Battle Green, where the Battles of Lexington and Concord started, in Lexington, Mass., on March 26, 2025. In Concord, because of warnings from Revere’s secret group, colonists had hidden or relocated most of their stockpile before the redcoats arrived. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

Why the Revolution Started and How It Evolved

Although the colonists’ war would later be called “the Revolution” and “the war for American independence from Britain,” it was neither revolutionary nor independence-focused at the outset, historians say.

Schwartz said his Cedarville students will sometimes say that the Revolution centered on “destroying things to make everyone equal.”

That’s not so. Harvard University historian Bernard Bailyn pointed out that “things were already a lot more equal in the colonies than they were in Great Britain,” Schwartz said.

“In America, it was a lot easier to have the right to vote, a lot easier to own land ... to participate in society,” Schwartz said.

Colonists saw the British Crown trying to take away those advances.

“So the American Revolution wasn’t about tearing down old structures to get to equality,” he said. “It was about preserving healthy traditions of equality in the community that already existed.”

Vincenzi said her research challenges popular impressions of the nation’s early history.

“I do think Americans think of the American Revolution as more revolutionary ... more of a break from the British political tradition than it actually was,” said the Italian-born professor.

A still taken from video of Bernard Bailyn, Harvard University professor and historian, as he delivers a lecture at Brown University in Providence, R.I., on June 7, 2012. Bailyn pointed out that “things were already a lot more equal in the colonies than they were in Great Britain.” Screenshot via Brown University/CC BY 3.0

“That’s not a bad thing. There is a richness of tradition to be rediscovered there. ... It speaks to the wisdom of the Founders; they knew that starting something on a blank slate is more dangerous than building on a very rich tradition of thought.”

And the “revolutionists” weren’t initially focused on breaking free from England, either.

When the first shots rang out at Lexington and Concord, militiamen still considered themselves “loyal subjects to England’s King George the III,” the park service said. “Independence was the furthest thing from their minds.”

Rather, they “assembled to defend their rights, as they perceived them under English law.”

Vincenzi said she often reminds her Hillsdale students that Revolutionary-era Americans “wanted to be British, and to look British.”

They bought porcelain tea sets that looked “as aristocratic and as British as possible,” Vincenzi said. They also admired and emulated British fashion, portrait styles, and architectural designs.

Calls for independence finally surfaced in 1776.

Until then, “Americans felt British,” Vincenzi said. Yet the British treated the colonists as second-class citizens.

“And that is what eventually ... pushes them to consider independence,” she said.

Had that not been the case, “Americans could still be carrying a British passport,” Vincenzi said, echoing a statement she heard from noted historian Jack Greene.

Lexington Minute Men gather for a battle reenactment of the Battle of Lexington and Concord as part of Patriot's Day celebrations in Lexington, Mass., on April 18, 2026. The following day marks the 251st anniversary of the Battle of Lexington and Concord, the first major military actions between the British Army and the Colonial American militias during the American Revolutionary War. Joseph Prezioso / AFP via Getty Images

The Founding Documents and Whom to Credit for Them

Some people mistakenly believe that Thomas Jefferson penned the entire Declaration of Independence by himself in a single night before Congress ratified the document unanimously on July 4, 1776.

The truth: Jefferson worked with four other committee members. They chose him to write the first draft—a process that took three weeks, followed by 86 edits from committee members and the Continental Congress, the National Park Service said.

“He was especially sorry they removed the part blaming King George III for the slave trade, although he knew the time wasn’t right to deal with the issue,” a National Archives article said.

The Declaration listed grievances against the British government and outlined core principles of the fledgling nation.

Years after defeating the British, America’s leaders met to establish the Constitution, which remains the supreme law of the land today.

Jefferson, however, never signed the document.

“This is the most popular myth at the National Constitution Center, especially when visitors enter our Signers’ Hall, [comprising] statues of the Constitution’s different signers—and ask where the Jefferson statue is,” the center’s website said.

Life-sized statues of the signers of the Constitution in Signers' Hall at the National Constitution Center, in Philadelphia, on July 18, 2012. Thomas Jefferson did not sign the Constitution–he was in Paris as the U.S. envoy to France at the time. Ziko van Dijk/CC BY-SA 3.0

Jefferson, the U.S. envoy to France, was in Paris when the Constitutional Convention met in Philadelphia in 1787.

When people think about crafting the Constitution, “we emphasize the two bright young men, James Madison and Alexander Hamilton,” Schwartz said. Both deserve credit for major roles in shaping the document. But in doing so, “we overlook a lot of the compromisers, the deal-makers, the older statesmen” whose influence was less obvious but essential, he said.

Those delegates “took Madison and Hamilton’s ideas, made them workable, built compromises out of them, and often changed them completely or went a completely new direction,” Schwartz said.

Those lesser-known contributors include Roger Sherman and Oliver Ellsworth. The two Connecticut delegates helped bridge an impasse over the rights of small states versus large states. The Great Compromise provided equal representation for each state in the Senate and population-based seats in the House of Representatives.

Sherman is among six Founders who signed both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. The other five were George Clymer, Benjamin Franklin, Robert Morris, George Read, and James Wilson.

John Trumbull's painting, “Declaration of Independence,” depicts the five-man drafting committee of the Declaration of Independence presenting their work to the Congress. The painting can be found on the back of the $2 bill. The original hangs in the U.S. Capitol rotunda. It does not represent a real ceremony; the characters portrayed were never in the same room at the same time. Another Believer/CC BY-SA 3.0

Schwartz emphasized that the Founders weren’t “just this collection of really intelligent people.” Many members of the Constitutional Convention had business experience, had traveled the world, and were “middle-aged or a little bit older.”

Thus, “they had wisdom, a lot of practical experience,” Schwartz said, which strengthened the Constitution.

Many people don’t realize that beyond the “young firebrands” known for their constitutional contributions, quiet leadership came from delegates such as George Washington, an elder statesman and war hero who became the first president.

“Just by being there and overseeing the proceedings, he’s adding a lot to it,” Schwartz said.

Without Washington and lesser-known delegates such as Ellsworth and Sherman, America would have ended up with a very different Constitution, he said.

“That’s a lesson that’s relevant for us today. We have a lot of people in our current politics who say, ‘Hey, I’m young. I want to charge to the front of this scene,’” Schwartz said.

“I think the Founders show us a different path. ... It’s good to have big ideas, but you also need people who are going to work hard behind the scenes and get things done.”

A sculpture by Adolph Alexander Weinman depicts the Committee of Five, on the pediment of the Jefferson Memorial in Washington. The committee was composed of John Adams, Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, Robert Livingston, and Roger Sherman. They drafted and presented to the full Congress in Pennsylvania State House what would become the U.S. Declaration of Independence of July 4, 1776. Another Believer/CC BY-SA 3.0

Slavery and How the Founders Saw It

In recent years, young Americans have been taught that the Founding Fathers “were all pro-slavery, they all owned slaves, they all thought slavery was a good thing—and that’s just not true,” Schwartz said. “That’s a big myth and a big mistake that we have to deal with in today’s society.”

Actually, the Founders were divided over slavery; some were very much against it. However, they didn’t insist on action in the Constitution, Schwartz said, because they believed people could see it was dehumanizing—which would lead to its abolishment.

He and Bloodworth concurred on that point.

While it is “appalling” that people could “own other human beings,” Bloodworth said, it’s essential to remember that “slavery was the norm” at the time.

“The past is ‘another country,’ and we have to understand it on its own terms,” he said. “Too often, contextualizing is seen as ‘excuse-making,’ which it’s not the same thing.”

He credits the Founders for embedding “the logic of racial equality” into America’s foundational documents, even though many weren’t yet ready to fully embrace it.

The opening words of the U.S. Constitution are displayed on the exterior of the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, on Sept. 15, 2003. Roger Sherman is among six Founders who signed both the Declaration and the Constitution. Jeffrey M. Vinocur/CC BY 2.5

“Many of the Founders’ documents indicate that they most certainly believed that slavery was going to ... die a slow death,” Bloodworth said.

Significantly, Washington freed his slaves upon his death.

“It doesn’t erase the fact that he owned slaves,” Bloodworth said, but that “momentous” act set the tone for others to follow suit.

Vincenzi warns against “over-simplified” views of the debate over slavery during the age of the nation’s founding.

“It’s complicated,” she said.

A significant number of delegates to the Constitutional Convention were determined to defend slavery. Many others wanted slavery to be abolished, yet they worried that “the sudden abolition of slavery could create a lot of problems,” Vincenzi said.

They asked questions such as “If you treat people as non-people for decades, how are they going to live once they’re emancipated?”

The slavery issue was a pivotal one that perhaps made a big compromise at the Constitutional Convention inevitable “for the sake of establishing a union that otherwise would have probably not been born,” she said.

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'Gave Iran Week Off Because We're Nice': Trump References Ayatollah Funeral In Rushmore Speech

On Friday President Trump delivered a speech at Mount Rushmore to kick off the nation's 250th anniversary celebrations, and in it he confirmed that everything regarding Iran - whether on the military or diplomatic fronts - have been paused to allow for the Islamic Republic to bury its late supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Trump said Washington "knocked the hell out of Iran" and that the country was "dying to settle". He also made comparisons between the lengthy Iran conflict and the brief US operation to overthrow Maduro of Venezuela.

"We beat Venezuela in one day, and we knocked the hell out of Iran," he said. That's when he claimed that the current US posture and pause in action is all about allowing the Iranians time to conduct a week-long funeral for the slain Khamenei, killed during the opening day of Operation Epic Fury.

"We gave them a week off for a funeral because we're nice," he said.

Bloomberg News

The funeral ceremonies began in Tehran on Friday, with government representatives from dozens of countries paying respects, and with the public multi-city procession in full swing on Saturday, amid a heavy Iranian security presence.

While the US administration is touting its Iran 'excursion' as a 'win' - the reality is that it is looking more like a quagmire with each passing week.

Iran is no closer to abandoning its nuclear program, it is proclaiming its own control over the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian protocol, and its ruling clerics and IRGC military apparatus are firmly in place. Trump and White House officials had from day one vowed a rapid engagement, saying repeatedly it would end 'fast' - and had even initially touted that regime change would be imminent - but now it's been 127 days since the conflict's start.

Trump in his Rushmore speech didn't dwell long on the Iran (mis)adventure, but moved on rather quickly to themes of American exceptionalism.

"Americans honor excellence; we admire boldness; we respect ambition," Trump said. "We are a nation of dreamers and believers, warriors and explorers, doers and fighters and in every human endeavor Americans see an unfinished competition.

"What is strong can be made stronger. What is fast can be made faster. What is great can be made greater than ever before. And that's what's happening with America."

He continued: "Show us a mountain, and we'll just climb it. Show us an ocean and we'll just cross it. Show us a problem and we will just solve it. Show us a task the world calls impossible and Americans will get it done."

There's a rich irony in Khamenei's public funeral starting on the very day, July 4th, that America celebrates the 250th anniversary of its founding. The founding fathers warned the young Republic that America "goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy."

John Quincy Adams famously warned, "She might become the dictatress of the world. She would be no longer the ruler of her own spirit."

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CFPB Orders Remote Employees To Relocate To Washington Or Lose Jobs

Via American Greatness,

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has directed hundreds of employees who live outside the Washington area to relocate to the agency’s new headquarters or face losing their jobs, a move that could significantly reduce the bureau’s workforce.

Acting Director Russell Vought notified employees in a memorandum Tuesday that approximately 450 remote workers must commit to relocating to Washington by July 14. Employees who agree to the move are scheduled to begin reporting to the bureau’s new headquarters September 6.

According to the directive, employees who decline to relocate or fail to respond by the deadline will be separated from the agency.

The CFPB’s new headquarters, located at 445 12th St. SW in Washington, previously housed the Federal Communications Commission and currently houses the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. The facility has space for about 550 employees, roughly half of the bureau’s current workforce of approximately 1,100.

The bureau’s employee union characterized the relocation order as a de facto workforce reduction, arguing the requirement is likely to prompt many employees to resign rather than move to Washington.

A limited number of employees appear to have been exempted from the relocation requirement, though the agency has not publicly explained the exemptions.

The CFPB has not publicly commented on the relocation notices.

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Independence Week

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

It was a reassuring week for those who are concerned about central bank independence. At the ECB’s annual conference in Sintra, moderator Sarah Eisen channeled a bit of her inner Beyoncé, asking a panel of central bank heads “To all you [bankers], who are independent, throw your hands up at me.” All four policymakers, including Fed Chairman Warsh, confirmed the importance of central bank independence: “The Fed acted independently before the Supreme Court ruling, and the Fed will continue to do so after the ruling.”

The Supreme Court kept the FOMC’s Cook in her seat for now, pending “due process.” However, that does not bar Trump from continuing to try to fire her. In the same ruling, the court overturned a nine-decades-old precedent to allow the US president more freedom to fire the heads of federal agencies at will.

The justices did acknowledge that the Fed is a special case, and that the president’s power to fire a governor “for cause” was deliberately enacted by Congress to prevent that governors only serve at the president’s pleasure. And, the justices concluded, the burden of proof is not a low bar; since independence is key to the Federal Reserve’s design, they argue that “for cause” should be a substantial threshold.

So, the legal disputes will continue over what constitutes “for cause.” Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is “doubling down” on their efforts to reshape the central bank, as Trump seeks to place more allies in the FOMC.

But the next line of the chorus was a bit more difficult for some of the panellists to sing along with. “All the [govvies], making money, throw your hands up at me” seems to have struck a nerve with the ECB’s Governing Council.

From the sidelines of the Sintra conference, Reuters reported that the central bank is considering increasing the minimum reserve requirement for banks from 1% to 2%. Tweaking the policy stance does not appear to be the reason. From a monetary policy perspective, the minimum reserve requirement is not a very potent instrument. Instead, it appears to be a cost consideration.

It wouldn’t be the first time that this is discussed. In 2023, policymakers changed the remuneration of banks’ minimum reserves – also motivated by some quick cost savings. Today, the ECB still pays more interest on the excess reserves that banks have deposited with the ECB than the central bank earns on the assets in its QE portfolios.

The result is negative net interest income, and various national central banks have thus been lossmaking in the past couple of years. That’s not an immediate problem for the central bank, but the ECB is certainly mindful of the optics and the political sensitivity. Last month’s decision to hike the policy rate by 25 basis points adds new impetus to that discussion.

At Sintra, Warsh also reiterated his aversion against forward guidance. The Fed chair refused to comment on the implications of economic data releases, or even which data series he prefers. But that doesn’t stop the market from drawing their own conclusions. On that note, US non-farm payroll growth disappointed. Companies added only 57,000 new jobs in June, and the 172,000 print for May was revised down to a much more moderate 129,000.

The employment statistics weren’t any better. The unemployment rate declined to 4.2% from 4.3%, but that was due to a large decline in the labor force. The fall in participation even outpaced the large decline in household employment. So, both the establishment survey and the household survey painted a picture of a weak labour market in June.

As a result, US money markets pared back their pricing of Fed rate hikes somewhat. That may also have given some new support to equities. Renewed AI-optimism also helps. The South-Korean Kospi index leads the charge, which appears to be led by Samsung Electronics. The company is up 8% after reportedly securing an order from Anthropic for customized AI chips.

Turning to geopolitics, negotiations between the US and Iran in Qatar have concluded, without much hiccups. The Washington Post reports that US officials feared that Israel might try to assassinate Iran’s negotiating team during the talks. So much so, that they even sent warning to Tehran. Similar risks may resurface as Iran holds the funeral ceremony for Khamenei. Iran warned both the US and Israel to refrain from attacks during the days of mourning.

Following the talks, President Trump told CNBC that Iran “agreed to just about everything we need.” Yet, reality still seems to be different. The US maintains that Iran will not get any frozen assets until it fulfills its part of the memorandum of understanding. Iran, meanwhile, is still demanding the reverse order of these events. And then there’s the issue of Hormuz tolls – or fees. The US insists that Iran does not impose any control or toll, but several European leaders have reportedly accepted the reality that some fees are unavoidable now.

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