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California Bill Banning Voter ID Passes Legislature, Awaits Newsom's Signature

A bill in California that would ban local governments from requiring voter ID in elections passed the state's far-left assembly, and how awaits Governor Gavin Newsom's approval or veto.

State Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) speaks at a press conference in Huntington Beach, Calif., on Oct. 6, 2021. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The measure would ban local governments such as Huntington Beach - where the City Council was just given voter approval to impose such a requirement - from requiring voters to prove their identity, and passes jurisdiction for such laws to the state.

"I have repeatedly told the Huntington Beach City Council members pushing this issue that if they were to produce any evidence of widespread voter fraud, I would lead efforts to change California’s voter eligibility rules. They have not produced any such evidence," said Irving Democrat. Sen. Dave Min, whose Senate Bill 1174 passed the assembly in a 57-16 vote on Aug. 27.

The bill was approved 30-8 in the state Senate in May.

According to Min, the bill would protect against a "patchwork of varying election requirements" throughout the Golden State - blocking all cities from requiring voters to present a government-issued ID to vote. The ban also includes charter cities.

"We cannot have 100 different charter cities making up 100 different sets of voting rules, based on fringe conspiracy theories," said Min, referring to those questioning the results of the 2020 election.

As the Epoch Times notes further, in a May 21 Senate floor hearing, Min said SB 1174 would create a statewide standard that prevents cities from enacting their own policies, which he said could create inequality.

SB 1174 would try to address this matter and ensure that local jurisdictions cannot impose their own voter ID requirements to try to engage in culture wars and try to disenfranchise voters,” he said.

In a recent Assembly Local Government bill analysis, Min argued that voter ID requirements only create barriers for voters but don’t protect against fraud, as voters already must verify their identity when they register.

Healthy democracies rely on robust access to the polls. An overwhelming body of evidence proves that voter ID laws only subvert voter turnout and create barriers to law-abiding voters,” he said.

He said the state already automatically recounts some ballots, does signature verification checks, and allows voters to track their ballots.

“We will not concede to ploys of voter fraud while an overwhelming body of evidence proves our elections are safe, secure, and above board,” he said.

Voters in California are required to show identification only if they didn’t provide a driver’s license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number when registering, but the secretary of state also accepts credit or debit cards, student IDs, or an ID from a commercial establishment.

For mail-in ballots, those without proper identification are treated as provisional ballots per existing state law and election officials are supposed to request proof before counting them. In the 2022 statewide general election, 660 ballots were rejected because of identification issues.

During the March 5 primary election, voters in Huntington Beach, a charter city in Orange County, approved a charter amendment to allow voter ID requirements in city elections starting in 2026.

But according to Min, if SB 1174  is signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, the bill would nullify the city’s Measure A before it takes effect.

Huntington Beach City Attorney Michael Gates told The Epoch Times in a recent interview that Min’s bill is “pure political symbolism” in response to the city’s recently passed measure.

He said as a charter city, under Article XI, Section 5 (b) of the California Constitution, Huntington Beach has a right to have voter ID, and the state will lose any legal challenges it brings.

“The state is running headlong into another legal clash, which it will lose miserably.  Huntington Beach has it right, the state has it completely wrong. And, all Californians want election integrity.  It’s common sense,” he said in a text message to The Epoch Times.

According to Huntington Beach Mayor Gracey Van Der Mark, residents have said they would feel more secure if IDs are checked at in-person polling stations.

We put it out there on the ballot, they said we want this and the state is doing everything within their power to stop us from honoring what the voters have been asking us for,” she told The Epoch Times in a May interview when Min’s bill first cleared the Senate.

California is one of 15 states that doesn’t ask for photo ID at the ballot box, according to lawmakers.

Newsom has until Sept. 30 to sign or veto the bill.

Travis Gillmore contributed to this report.

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The Pending Implosion Of Chicago Public Unions, No City Is More Deserving

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Chicago has a budget deficit of nearly $1 billion. Tack on another $2.9 billion for a proposed teachers’ contract plus an unknown amount for firefighters.

Chicago’s Budget Gap

CBS News reports Chicago Faces $982 Million Budget Shortfall for 2025

Mayor Brandon Johnson is projecting a $982 million city budget shortfall for 2025, nearly double the spending gap he faced in his first year in office, thanks to rising personnel costs, drops in some key tax revenues, and expiring one-time budget solutions he relied on to balance the 2024 budget.

Johnson declined to say if he would raise property taxes, authorize legalizing video gambling in Chicago, or approve placing slot machines at the city’s airports as ways to raise new revenue to balance the budget for 2025. He also would not rule out the possibility of layoffs or a hiring freeze.

“The chickens have come home to roost. It is time to get busy,” said Joe Ferguson, president of the Civic Federation, a nonpartisan public finance watchdog group.

“Springfield is not coming to the aid of the city anytime soon. Springfield has its own issues that it has to deal with. Springfield also needs to see that the city is actually taking care of its own house before it’s going to come with any additional help,” Ferguson said.

Soft Landing Hoot of the Day

 “We’re working to provide as soft of a landing as possible,” said Johnson.

Expenses Up, Revenues Down

  • Budget Director Annette Guzman said the city is expecting continued drop in revenue from the personal property replacement tax – a tax on corporations collected by the state and passed on to local governments. The city saw a drop of $169 million in revenue from that tax in 2024, and is expecting an even bigger drop in 2025.

  • The Chicago Board of Education also recently approved a Chicago Public Schools budget plan that does not include a $175 million payment for pensions for nonteaching staff at the district, a cost the city once covered, but that CPS had paid for over the last four years until now, and Johnson’s budget team isn’t expecting the district to cover that cost for 2025.

  • Another factor putting pressure on the city’s budget for next year is ongoing contract talks with the union for the city’s firefighters and paramedics, who have gone more than three years without a new contract.

Chicago Teachers Union $2.9 billion Deficit

In addition to the above, please note the CTU’s Proposed Contract would tack on another $2.9 billion.

Chicago Public Schools officials said Tuesday that the Chicago Teachers Union’s contract proposals would result in a deficit of at least $2.9 billion for the 2025-26 school year, a hole more than five times the current projection and growing as large as $4 billion by 2028.

They also threw cold water on the idea of borrowing to pay for the additional costs, noting the district is already weighed down by a ton of debt, much of it taken out at moments of crisis. That marked the first time CPS had publicly addressed a private proposal by Mayor Brandon Johnson for district officials to take out a short-term, high-interest loan to pay for a CTU contract as well as a pension payment that his office is demanding be covered by the district. CPS officials had pushed back on that idea privately.

The union, which in recent weeks has grown increasingly critical of CPS CEO Pedro Martinez and his approach to the budget, is reportedly asking for 9% annual raises for teachers, plus promises that every school will have a baseline of staff that will allow for small class sizes and a variety of arts, music and physical education classes. The CTU also has made proposals around more preparation time for elementary school teachers, housing for homeless students and support for migrant children.

The union pointed to revenue initiatives that the city and state could explore, like more heavily taxing millionaires and corporations — which would require changes to state law — or seeking federal funding for school building improvements.

Give Credit Where Credit Is Due

Johnson proposes a “short-term, high-interest loan to pay for a CTU contract .”

Then what?

Let’s give credit where credit is due. No matter how stupid you think Chicago’s mayor is, every election the city manages to find someone worse.

Even Lori Lightfoot was better than this.

However, any thinking person knew this in advance. Johnson was hand picked by the CTU to screw the city, screw the taxpayers, screw the corporations, and screw the kids.

March 13: Chicago Teachers’ Union Seeks $50 Billion Despite $700 Million City Deficit

March 15: Congratulations to NY, IL, LA, and CA for Losing the Most Population

August 11: Net Zero Climate Policies Could Leave the Midwest in the Dark

July 2: In Chicago There’s Under a 50 Percent Chance Police Show Up If You are Shot

Brandon Johnson is the worst mayor in Chicago history, and that’s saying quite a bit.

If you live in Illinois, get the hell out before unions take every penny you have.

By the way, if you want to vote for a Chicago bailout and massive tax increases to pay for it (even if you don’t live in Chicago), then vote for Kamala Harris.

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Houthis Release New Footage On Tanker Explosion; Satellite Imagery Suggests Oil Leak Has Begun 

Iran-backed Houthi militants published new footage showing rebel forces commandeering Greek-flagged oil tanker MV Sounion about 77 nautical miles west of the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. 

Yahya Saree, a spokesperson for the Houthis, posted the footage on X on Thursday, showing heavily armed masked men moving around the Suezmax tanker—the largest type of oil tanker capable of transiting the Suez Canal—and setting it ablaze.

"Scenes of the storming and burning of the Greek ship (SOUNION) in the Red Sea, whose owner company violated the decision to ban entry to the ports of occupied Palestine," Saree wrote on X. 

It's unclear when the footage was taken. The initial attack was on August 21, when missiles and drones paralyzed the tanker carrying 150,000 tons of crude. 

X account Open Source Intel posted a Maxar satellite image from Thursday that shows Sounion ablaze. According to the account, the tanker "has begun leaking oil."

On Tuesday, US Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, warned about the risks of a major ecological disaster looming in the Red Sea with the tanker on fire. 

"These are simply reckless acts of terrorism which continue to destabilize global and regional commerce, put the lives of innocent civilian mariners at risk and imperil the vibrant maritime ecosystem in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the Houthis' own backyard," Ryder said.

To put it in perspective, Sounion is hauling 150,000 tons of crude—a little more than four times the amount spilled by the Exxon Valdez in 1989. 

Another Houthi spokesperson, Mohammed Abdulsalam, was quoted by Reuters earlier this week as saying salvage efforts were underway, and tugboats and rescue ships were permitted into the region to support the crippled tanker. 

Abdulsalam noted there was no temporary truce and only agreed to allow salvage efforts to occur after talks with several international groups. 

Here's the latest reporting on the Sounion crisis:

All of this Red Sea chaos signifies one thing, as former Navy Seal and Blackwater founder Erik Prince recently explained on X: America's "credibility and deterrence" are quickly eroding. 

Great job, Biden-Harris. Your incompetence projects weakness to the world.

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CIA Lays Out Its View Of Kursk Operation For First Time

In rare comments, a top CIA official has given the US spy agency's view of Ukraine's ongoing Kursk incursion which began on Aug.6 and which has resulted in hundreds of square miles of Russian territory coming under Ukrainian military control. It undoubtably marks the single biggest escalation in the war to date, given Kiev is seeking to 'return' the war to Russia.

CIA's number two, deputy director David Cohen, said it is going to be a "difficult fight" for the Russians as they try to wrest their territory back. He was addressing the Intelligence and National Security Summit in Washington on Wednesday.

CIA #2 David Cohen, Getty Images

"We can be certain that Putin will mount a counteroffensive to try to reclaim that territory," Cohen said per Reuters. "I think our expectation is that that will be a difficult fight for the Russians."

He described that the challenge for Putin and military leadership is that they have to deal with a "front line now within Russian territory" but also the "reverberations back in his own society that they have lost a piece of Russian territory."

Cohen further revealed the CIA has been discussing and analyzing Ukraine's goals and aims of the operation: "They are remaining in Russia, building defenses, and, as best as we can tell from our conversations, there seems to be intent on retaining some of that territory for some period of time," he explained.

Part of Kiev's aim with the high-risk cross-border offensive has been to humiliate and distract the Kremlin, possibly leading to destabilization of Moscow's Ukraine operations. Yet so far Russia has continued to make clear gains in the Donbass, where the front-line fighting is.

The CIA's Cohen in the new remarks admitted that Russian gains have been steady but that this has come at an "extraordinary cost" in terms of lives and resources expended.

"But at the end of the day, none of it is a game changer in a strategic sense," for the Russians, he went on to emphasize. The same could more easily be said about Ukraine's Kursk incursion, but as expected for a US intelligence official he only kept the negative remarks for Russia.

Interestingly, Russian media picked up on the following exchange:

Cohen declined to answer a direct question about whether he and his colleagues at Langley were just as "surprised" by Ukraine’s incursion, noting that the significance and implications of the attack "remain to be seen."

Ukraine reportedly did not consult its Western sponsors before launching the operation, leaving them puzzled over its ultimate goals.

It is highly likely that the CIA and Pentagon not only had foreknowledge of the operation, but even helped in the planning and execution, official White House statements to the contrary notwithstanding.

Western weapons have also been seen all over the Kursk battlefield, even including Western main battle tanks such as the UK's Challenger II. There have also reportedly been US M1 Abrams sightings on Russian territory.

We explained previously that even though White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre claimed that the US didn’t know about Ukraine’s plans to invade Russia’s Kursk Region, this is too unbelievable since there’s no way that Western intelligence services didn’t even catch a hint of it, not to mention likely participate in the preparations. The NY Times earlier this year confirmed that the CIA is deeply embedded within Ukraine and its intelligence apparatus. 

President Putin has reaffirmed during recent security meetings with high-ranking government officials that Ukraine and the Kursk crisis is part of the West's proxy war being waged on Russia.

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IDF Fires Missiles On West Bank Mosque, Killing Top Terror Commander, In Day 2 Of Incursion

Thursday marks day two of the Israeli military and security forces' large-scale raid into the West Bank, the biggest seen in at least two decades. Fierce fighting overnight focused on a mosque in the city of Tulkarem, resulting in five Palestinian gunmen being killed.

The first day of the major assault involving hundreds of IDF troops and Shin Bet security personnel left at least nine Palestinians dead. Fighter jets, drones, and bulldozers have been seen focusing counter-terror efforts in the towns of Jenin, Tulkarem and Tubas - each which also contains sprawling refugee camps.

AP/TOI: Palestinians stand outside a damaged mosque following an Israeli military operation in the West Bank refugee camp of Al-Faraa, Thursday.

Amid international criticism over the apparent expansion of the Gaza war into the PA-administered West Bank, Israeli leadership says it has intelligence showing that if it didn't act, another Oct.7-style terror attack might have been launched from operatives in the West Bank.

As for the now pacified showdown at the Tulkarem mosque, Israeli media describes that at one point the military launched shoulder-fired missiles at the mosque

The Yamam officers carried out a tactic known as "pressure cooker" that involves escalating the volume of fire directed at a building to force suspects to come out.

The Israeli forces had fired shoulder-launched missiles at the mosque as part of the tactic, and two gunmen were killed. In an adjacent building, another four gunmen were identified, and three of them were killed in an exchange of fire with the Yamam officers, while the fourth surrendered.

Among the dead who had been holed up in the mosque was Muhammad Jaber, aka Abu Shuja’, believed to be the commander of the Islamic Jihad’s local wing. The IDF says it has recovered explosive devices at the site.

Militants are not only being targeted by ground forces in the ongoing West Bank operations, but drone strikes on vehicles are playing an active role as well. Attack helicopters are also coordinating these efforts.

Since Oct.7, the West Bank has seen internecine fighting, also involving Jewish settlers. In all, Palestinian sources say that 650 West Bank Palestinians have been killed since the Gaza war began. The Israeli side has said during the same period 27 Israelis, including security personnel have been killed in terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank.

"Among the dead in the mosque was Muhammad Jaber, known as Abu Shuja’a, reported to be the commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s local wing in the Nur Shams camp in Tulkarem."

Things haven't been this violent in the West Bank since the Second Intifada, but the prior intifiadas of 20+ years ago show that things could always get worse.

None of this bodes well for efforts to achieve a Gaza ceasefire deal, talks which have been centered in Cairo. Hamas is likely to point to Israel's expansion of the war into the West Bank as a reason to show Tel Aviv isn't serious about peace.

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Big-Tech, Bullion, & Bitcoin Battered Before NVDA's Big Night

Coming off yesterday's lowest volume (full) session of the year (and Monday was the 2nd lowest), the low level of liquidity was very apparent in today's anxiety-filled session as traders puked back gains ahead of "the most important earnings announcement ever".

Nasdaq was clubbed like a baby seal, but all the majors saw two big legs down intraday. That, of course, was met with a wave of BTFDing as the last hour began

Mag7 stocks were dumped for the fifth day in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Also, 'most shorted' stocks were dumped, erasing all the post-Powell euphoria...

Source: Bloomberg

1-Day-VIX soared higher ahead of tonight's earnings news (higher than VIX)...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher across the curve by 1-2bps on the day with the long-end very modestly underperforming...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended its rebound gains, erasing 75% of the post-Powell plunge...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was battered today with a big puke shortly after yesterday's equity cash market closed. The cryptocurrency found support at $58,000 and tested back up to $60,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold also tumbled on the day, only to find support at $2500...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices dipped for the second day with WTI holding above $74...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, is it time for stocks to catch back down to bonds' reality?

Source: Bloomberg

...and will NVDA be the trigger?

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2,000 Workers Gone: Klarna Is First Major Company To Unleash Mass Layoffs Thanks To AI

Last March, when the world was just learning about the AI crazy that would send markets to bubbly, nosebleed levels, we quoted a report by Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius who used data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, to find that "roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work. Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation" as up to "two thirds of occupations could be partially automated by AI."

Translation: one-third of a billion layoffs (at least) in the US and Europe, or as we put it, "Think of it as the robotization of the service sector."

Well, it may not be 300 million - yet - but the first 1,200 job losses to take place exclusively thanks to artificial intelligence are now in the books, as a result of mass layoffs taking place at Swedish fintech giant Klarna which has already fired well over 1,000 of its workers and plans to axe almost half of its 5,000 workers thanks to AI, as the lossmaking Swedish buy now, pay later company gears up for a stock market flotation.

As the FT reported, CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski heralded the benefits of AI in Klarna’s second-quarter results on Tuesday, which showed a significant narrowing of its net loss from SKr854mn ($84mn) a year earlier to SKr10mn.

The Swedish fintech has already cut its workforce from 5,000 to 3,800 in the past year, and Siemiatkowski said that Klarna could employ as few as 2,000 employees in the coming years as it uses AI in tasks such as customer service and marketing.

“Not only can we do more with less, but we can do much more with less. Internally, we speak directionally about 2,000 [employees]. We don’t want to put a specific deadline on that,” he added.

Separately, Klarna has imposed a hiring freeze on workers apart from engineers and is using natural attrition rather than lay-offs to shrink its workforce.

Not surprisingly, Siemiatkowski has become one of the most outspoken European tech bosses about the benefits of AI, even if it leads to lower employment, arguing that is an issue for governments to worry about. Translation: UBI is coming, and with its massive stimulus, QE, YCC and so on, because over the next decade hundreds of millions of well-paid services jobs will quietly go into that good night.

There is another reason behind Klarna's impetus to push for massive cost-savings. The Stockholm-based group is lining up financial advisers for its long-anticipated initial public offering due as early as the first half of next year, with Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs in lead positions to secure top roles, the FT reported.

Siemiatkowski said that Klarna had boosted its average annual revenue per employee from about $400,000 a year 12 months ago to  $700,000 now, due to cutting its workforce and reducing expenses through AI.

The benefits of AI are likely to be a key selling point for any Klarna IPO. Once the darling of the European tech scene valued at $46bn in 2021, the Swedish group saw its valuation plummet as low as $6.7bn a year later because of rising interest rates and falling stock prices. Bankers and investors in Klarna now believe it may be able to achieve a valuation of between $15bn and $20bn when it lists, assuming it manages to fire many more employees.

Then again, Klarna has other problems: credit losses at Klarna increased 22% to SKr1.1bn in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, even as revenues increased 25% to SKr6.9bn.

Klarna had been consistently profitable from its founding in 2005 until 2019 when its rapid expansion in the US caused it to make huge losses. Last year, it made its first quarterly net profit in more than four years, and Siemiatkowski said it would not go back to making losses, arguing that AI was boosting its gross margins.

“If I can get to a superior revenue per employee that will allow us to pay top class for the best talent, the people who are currently deep-diving and learning AI . . . The very strong message to our employees is: less total labour cost, higher cost per individual. I’m very happy about seeing that this is paying off,” Siemiatkowski said.

Here the punchline: if Klarna is successful at keeping its productivity and output with 50% fewer workers, other service companies will immediately take the plunge and do the same. And if X/Twitter is any indication, with the company successfully dumping up to 80% of its pre-Musk acquisition bloat, the next decade will see a veritable carnage of layoffs across every single industry, putting Goldman's forecast of "only" 300 million layoffs in the dust.

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Will $1 Trillion In Treasury Basis Trades Blow Up The Clearinghouses

By Russell Clark of Capital Flows and Asset Markets

Reading the excellent article by Brian Meehan of Bloomberg Intelligence, “Basis Trade Growth Is Massive”, I was reminded just how stupid clearinghouses really are. If you ever meet a head of a clearinghouse, I can assure it was not brains that got them to this key position in global finance.

As the article points out, there is now a $1.1 trillion notional short position in US treasury futures. You should not read this as the market being bearish on treasuries. It is a levered trade to make a “risk free” return on the difference in price between off the run treasuries and treasury future positions. For every short position in the treasury futures, there should be a long position in the physical market.

The size of the trade has been large for awhile. The Federal Reserve took a look at it and thought it was not a problem (uh oh!). It has the same data as above, just that Bloomberg has provided an up to date estimate. In the post GFC world, much of this trade has migrated from prop desks at banks to hedge funds.

This is not a new phenomenon. BIS noted in 2019 reports that the Repo market has become bifurcated between banks and hedge funds. See dotted line in middle graph.

This is a natural by-product of how clearinghouses work. The clearinghouses at the centre of repo trading (LCH and CME) are only concerned with how quickly trades can be liquidated. As they tend to settle on a daily basis, and hedge funds and other asset managers need to settle constantly, they tend to allow trades to grow in size much more than when investment banks were at the centre of repo market.

Clearinghouses cannot go bust. So they pursue policies to grow volumes as much as possible. One such policy is compression trades. This is where very similar interest rates products can be compressed into a single product to allow more leverage to be used. Below show that a multiple of outstanding notional is being compressed every year.

The problem is that when there is a shock in interest rate markets, then liquidity disappears and clearinghouse starts demanding more margin from all players, which then leads to spiraling weaker market. We saw just such a circumstance in the UK gilt market under the PM Truss. The sell off in gilts could only be contained by the Bank of England becoming a buyer of last resort.

The big investment banks know that the clearinghouse misprice risk, which is why they suggested that they should take more financial risk in pricing, to incentivise them to do a better job. Regulators have so far ignored this advice. The proposed risk waterfall is presented below. More detail here. A close look at the proposed margin from the waterfall is a the ability to bankrupt CCPs. This has so far been rejected.

So how does this fit in with LTCM? Well LTCM focused on risk free arbitrage trades. The problem with most of the trades is that you need substantial leverage to make them work. Most banks would feel uncomfortable lending a hedge fund that much. The downfall of LTCM as it was told to me, and I did work at UBS, was that one day there were industry drinks and one trader mentioned how much business he was doing with LTCM - and another trader said, hang on a second, we are doing just as much business as well. The traders then worked out that LTCM had far more leverage than they had disclosed, and as they traders worked this out, sold their positions before LTCM could. This put downward pressure on their trades, eventually forcing them bankrupt and bringing about a bailout. In essence, LTCM became the market, and at that point, it was destroyed. But it only became so leveraged because it acted in secrecy.

Under the new clearinghouse system, no such subterfuge is necessary. The clearinghouse actively wants you to borrow as much as possible, as long as you meet the liquidity and volatility seen over the look back period - typically 10 years. The problem, as the details above show, is that the hedge funds are all in. So are retail investors. Shares outstanding in TLT has skyrocketed.

So what could go wrong? Well in the US, after the presidential election is out of the way, you could expect inflationary policies to be announced (higher minimum wage, more tariffs, more stimulus). This leads to inflation expectations rising. Physical treasuries are held in ETFs like TLT, which probably see redemptions. Treasuries fall, basis trade widen, margin calls are issued, which leads to more selling of treasuries, and more basis widening, until the Fed steps into buy treasuries. This seems likely to me: a long GLD/TLT trade should do well in that environment. Having gone sideways for a few months, a move higher looks overdue.

The clearinghouse reform is failed reform - but it will take a crisis to change. Maybe this will be the one.

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It's A Bipartisan Miracle! Over 200 Bush, McCain, Romney Aides Endorse Harris

For your daily reminder that the establishment is one big club (and you ain't in it!)...

...more than 200 former aides to George W. Bush, Sen. John McCain, and Mitt Romney have offered their full-throated support for Vice President Kamala Harris. According to The Hill, most of the group also endorsed President Biden in 2020.

In a Monday letter first reported by USA Today, the group reiterated their opposition to Trump and support of Harris.

"“Of course, we have plenty of honest, ideological disagreements with Vice President Harris and Gov. Walz. That’s to be expected. The alternative, however, is simply untenable," reads the letter.

"At home, another four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, this time focused on advancing the dangerous goals of Project 2025, will hurt real, everyday people and weaken our sacred institutions. Abroad, democratic movements will be irreparably jeopardized as Trump and his acolyte JD Vance kowtow to dictators like Vladimir Putin while turning their backs on our allies," the letter continues.

The group called on friends and colleagues to "vote for leaders that will strive for consensus, not chaos," and said that "moderate Republicans and conservative independents" were what brought Biden his victory in 2020.

And then there's this guy...

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Special Counsel Smith Asks Appeals Court To Revive Trump Documents Case

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

Special counsel Jack Smith has asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit to reverse Judge Aileen Cannon’s order dismissing the Justice Department’s prosecution of former President Donald Trump over his handling of classified documents.

“The Attorney General validly appointed the Special Counsel, who is also properly funded,” the special counsel said in a brief to the appellate court on Aug. 26.

“In ruling otherwise, the district court deviated from binding Supreme Court precedent, misconstrued the statutes that authorized the Special Counsel’s appointment, and took inadequate account of the longstanding history of Attorney General appointments of special counsels.”

Cannon ruled in July that Smith’s appointment as special counsel violated the U.S. Constitution, specifically the appointments and appropriations clauses.

In a 93-page ruling, Cannon wrote that Smith’s prosecution of the former president “breaches two structural cornerstones of our constitutional scheme—the role of Congress in the appointment of constitutional officers, and the role of Congress in authorizing expenditures by law.”

The ruling raised questions about the Justice Department’s use of special counsels.

The judge ruled that Smith was an inferior officer, which requires Congress to authorize the attorney general to appoint him as special counsel, which didn’t happen.

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It's Not Right Versus Left; It's Sane Versus Insane...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

"RFK, Jr. Murders Whale With Chainsaw!"

“Our society is now a strange hybrid of the Middle Ages, the Third Reich, and Brave New World. We have two classes - lords and peasants; we are in the midst of a very profitable genocide; and it’s all infused with surveillance technology, mind-altering drugs, and wall-to-wall propaganda.”

- Dr. Toby Rogers

The alliance between Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Donald Trump is many things. But first it’s an all-clear signal to a large class of less-than-fully brain-damaged Americans that it’s okay to quit being insane.

As you know, this election is no longer a battle between the political Left and Right. It’s an epic struggle-session between the sane and the insane.

You just witnessed the Democratic Convention nominating an empty pantsuit whose only record as a high government official is failure to protect and defend the nation and to support its constitution. All arranged without any real votes cast. Pretty neat trick, pulled off under the banner of Saving Our Democracy. Please understand that it was the result of hypnotizing so many vulnerable personalities into a mass formation psychosis. They were vulnerable because they are scared stiff by propaganda specifically targeting their deepest archetypal fears — in this case, fear of Daddy, meaning fear of behavioral boundaries, in short, of being civilized.

Thus, the advocacy for Hamas terrorists (Israel = Old Testament = moral boundaries), abortion (no more babies = die-off of cultural line), drag-queens (“mother” = demonic imposter), open border (border = nation’s boundary), the Ukraine War (“Let’s You and Him Fight”), censorship (hatred of fairness), mandates and lockdowns (destroy purposeful, meaningful, productive life), and so on. The propaganda engineered to produce this madness surely comes from our intel blob. They have devoted all the years since the founding of the CIA in 1947 to developing and refining their methods of mindfuckery. They have unleashed it lately at full force because they fear that Mr. Trump will deconstruct their intel blob and possibly prosecute some of its current and former officials for serious crimes such as treason, misprision of felonies, and murder.

The final ingredient in all that is submission of the populace to these programmatic suggestions.

Simply put, they yield to the fears induced in them. Try to enter the mind of a committed Democratic voter. You’ll discover that you are locked out. Sharing of thoughts is impossible because there is no thought in there, only disordered emotion.

Ask a Democrat what they think Donald Trump actually did as president for four years. I guarantee you they will say only one thing: he cancelled abortion.

Which is actually not true. He nominated several Supreme Court Justices who ruled that abortion properly belonged under the jurisdiction of the fifty states. (It was the act of ruling that drove them nuts because rules = boundaries.)  Of course, all the single batshit crazy cat-ladies of Boston, New York, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Seattle, Portland, Denver, and Los Angeles now raging over the issue are free to abort themselves to their hearts’ content.

So, Kamala Harris emerges from this Cluster-B personality disorder exercise in hypnosis (the convention) as the avatar of . . . “joy” . . . in the absence of any ideas about actually running the government of a country which, for the moment, is run by nobody because the current president (“Joe Biden”) is both mentally unfit and on permanent vacation. None of this is very promising. The raptures of “joy” tend to obscure the idea that there is a future to be concerned about.

Enter Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

He explained his view of the situation and his role in it with unsurpassed clarity last Friday in a powerful and moving speech outlining a decision that must have been very painful for him. As I averred he would do last Friday morning, he denounced the party of his ancestors in unequivocal terms for coming to militate against its own traditional principles — opposing war, fighting for free speech, helping poor working people, and against weaponizing government agencies. He threw his support to Mr. Trump because it’s become obvious that Mr. Trump’s aims and ideas are more in-tune with those forsaken principles of Mr. Kennedy’s father and his uncle, JFK.

And now he’ll campaign on behalf of Mr. Trump, with the expectation that he will play an important, well-defined role in the next Trump administration — in charge of a range of public health issues that he is deeply familiar with from decades of litigation and researching the books about pharmaceutical racketeering actually written by himself.

It’s Monday after the convention. What’s on the candidates’ campaign schedule today. CNNs “Campaign Latest” page says that Mr. Trump will give a speech in Detroit today to the National Guard Association where he is expected to greet the endorsement of former Rep. (and Lt. Col. In the National Guard, Tulsi Gabbard). Kamala Harris has no public appearances scheduled, but CNN reports that she has raised a fabulous $540-million since her launch a few weeks ago. Isn’t that nice? Boolah boolah, lotsa moolah. On Wednesday, Ms. Harris and her veep sidekick, Tim Walz, embark on a bus tour around Georgia. Bus tours will be the signature of their campaign.

Let me tell you what that means: instead of flying expeditiously between campaign stops where they might have to state some positions on public issues, Harris & Walz will eat up many hours on long bus rides from Point-A to Point-B, hiding from the public and the press.

Bobby Kennedy, meanwhile, is cramming as many media appearances as possible into his schedule, submitting to questions about everything, including the latest barrage of accusations about his fully-disclosed personal history.

Fox has had him on several programs, though the other cable news stations are ignoring him, as are The New York Times and the WashPo, except to publish scurrilous stories from his mindfucked siblings and cousins - the latest being that he cut the head off a dead whale on the beach at Cape Cod with a chainsaw.

Readers are supposed to construe that to mean he murdered a whale with a chainsaw.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

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Netanyahu Vows More 'Surprising Blows' After Preemptive Hezbollah Attack: "Not The End"

"What happened today is not the end of the story," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a statement posted on X. Early morning 'preemptive' strikes included over 100 Israeli fighter jets simultaneously attacking thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers and drone sites across southern Lebanon.

"We are hitting Hezbollah with surprising blows. Three weeks ago we eliminated their chief of staff and today we thwarted their attack," Netanyahu said further.

IAF jet in action over southern Lebanon on Sunday, AFP/Getty Images

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) later said Hezbollah had launched 210 rockets and some 20 drones on northern and central Israel.

In follow-up IDF Spokesman Rear Adm Daniel Hagari announced that at least six Hezbollah operatives were killed in Sunday's major preemptive operation. This brings the tally to 30 Hezbollah operatives killed in just the last week.

Hagari declared Sunday's operation to be a success: "Contrary to Hezbollah’s claims, there were no impacts in IDF bases, not in the north and not in the center [of the country]," he said, rejecting claims made by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Interestingly, Israel has disclosed that it gave Washington a warning ahead of the major escalation. The Times of Israel details:

Israel gave the Americans "considerable" advance notice of its pre-dawn preemptive strike on Hezbollah’s rocket and missile launchers, Channel 2 news reports.

It says the US administration gave its backing to the attack, but warned both before and after it took place that Israel should be careful to avoid escalating the conflict toward all-out war.

The TV report said the message from the US was conveyed in several interactions with Jerusalem and broadly stated: "We support the operation to avert the specific threat, but be careful in your actions; don’t do anything that is likely to lead to a regional war."

So far, there doesn't appear to be runaway escalation as a result of Sunday's exchange of fresh fire.

The cross-border fighting between Israel and Hezbollah was some of the most severe in months, resulting several fatalities in Lebanon, according to the country's health ministry. However, within hours after the fight began, both sides appeared to de-escalate, with Hezbollah declaring its military operations "finished for the day."

In a further indication that the situation was stabilizing, Israel, which shuttered Ben-Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv earlier, reopened the airport later on Sunday.

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Does It Matter To The Market Who Wins The White House?

During election years, the focus is on the political horse race.

However, after the final poll closes, how have the market and the economy performed under both Democrat and Republican presidents?

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist partnered with New York Life Investments to explore stock market performance, consumer outcomes, and corporate sentiment across each presidential party.

Democrats vs. Republicans: Stock Market Performance

History shows that the S&P 500 does not favor a clear “winner” when it comes to the political party of sitting presidents. 

The mean compounded average annual growth rate (CAGR) with Democratic presidents is slightly higher than with Republican presidents. Median performance, however, is higher under Republican presidents.

To date, former President Clinton (D) (+15.2% CAGR) and former President Trump (R) (+14.1% CAGR) have seen the largest stock market gains among past presidents on record.

Democrats vs. Republicans: Consumer Outcomes

Like the S&P 500’s performance, presidential leadership has not been a key factor in determining the inflation rate and unemployment rate in the U.S. since the late-1940s. 

The sum of the nation’s inflation rate and unemployment rate together provide a measure of consumer “pain” in the economy.

The average sum with a Democratic president over the last 70+ years is +9.0% versus +9.5% for Republicans.

Democrats vs. Republicans: Corporate Sentiment

As with their consumer-related counterparts, corporate sentiment has also remained consistent regardless of the presidential party, on average.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) provides a measure of business sentiment in the economy. A score of below 50 represents deteriorating sentiment and a score of above 50 means sentiment is improving.

The average PMI under Republican presidents since 2000 is 54.3 versus 54.9 for Democrats—nearly identical and both in expansion terrain.

Informed Investing

Looking at past presidents, both Democrat and Republican, there have been roughly consistent market and economic track records. This highlights the importance of looking beyond the political noise and maintaining a diversified portfolio.

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Visualizing $5 Trillion In Global Commodity Exports, By Sector

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, categorizes over $5 trillion in global commodity exports by sector and the value of material exported.

Data was averaged between 2019–2021 to represent an annual estimate. Source figures can be found at The State of Commodity Dependence 2023 published by UN Trade & Development.

Commodity Exports with the Highest Value

Oil and its products account for 30% of global commodity exports on average, valued at $1.5 trillion annually.

Figures rounded.

When including natural gas, electricity, and coal exports, the energy sector contributes 40% to the value of global commodity export per year ($2 trillion). Agricultural exports ($1.9 trillion) rank second and are higher in value than mineral exports ($1.4 trillion).

Within agriculture, crops and forestry has the lion’s share of value at $1.2 trillion. This category includes everything from wheat to wood exports.

Meanwhile, the minerals sector is more equally divided between base metal exports (like copper, iron, and aluminum) and precious metals and stones (gold, silver, diamonds).

Not pictured in this graphic is how international the commodity trade tends to concentrate in just a few countries on the exports side. For example, one-fourth of all copper produced in 2023 came from Chile.

The flip side of this means some of these major resource exporters have a significant amount of commodity dependence. And relatedly, many of them are low or middle income countries. When international prices for the commodity exported decline, the likelihood of financial crises and reduced public spending increases, further entrenching economic challenges in these regions.

Oil’s export value closely mirrors its consumption as a primary energy source. Check out “What Powered the World in 2023?” to see the world’s energy mix.

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Illegal Immigration Lull At Southwest Border Likely Temporary; Experts Say

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

The number of immigrants illegally entering the United States is down at least temporarily because of deals cut with the United States’ southern neighbors and other measures, according to experts, but the crisis is far from over.

U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) numbers showed 205,000 illegal immigrant encounters in June, slightly lower than the 208,000 in June of 2021 after President Joe Biden took office.

The Biden administration has taken credit for the recent drop, attributing it to new asylum rules limiting the number of people allowed to cross illegally into the country and through the CBP One app, which enables migrants to make appointments with Border Patrol to enter the United States.

Other factors limiting the number of illegal migrants crossing the border include deals with Mexico and Panama.

In December 2023, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas met with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, seeking help with decreasing illegal immigration.

This summer, the Biden administration promised to help pay for Panama’s efforts to repatriate hundreds of thousands of migrants headed to the United States via the Darien Gap, one of the most treacherous migration routes.

Biden’s efforts came after millions of people from more than 150 countries crossed the U.S. southern border illegally last year, drawing intense media attention with the 2024 election on the horizon.

Even with help from southern neighbors and a new executive order in place, illegal immigrant encounters stand at 2.4 million through June so far this fiscal year—likely to outpace the 2022 total of 2.8 million.

Last year, a record 3.2 million illegal immigrants entered the United States. More than 10 million migrants have crossed into the country unlawfully since Biden reversed Trump administration policies such as “Remain in Mexico,” under which asylum seekers waited until their asylum claim could be heard.

The arrangement between the Biden administration and Mexico triggered a crackdown on migrants headed to the U.S. southern border. Mexican officials have rounded up tens of thousands of migrants, busing them to the southern cities of Villahermosa and Tapachula.

Honduran girl Dareli Matamoros holds a sign asking President Joe Biden to let her in during a migrant demonstration at San Ysidro crossing port in Tijuana, Mexico, on March 2, 2021. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

Some U.S.-bound migrants in Mexico reported being sent back to southern Mexico as many as six times, causing them to run out of money and become stuck at least temporarily.

That’s significant, because the CPB One app currently doesn’t work south of Mexico City, meaning migrants must start their journey all over again or remain stranded in southern Mexico.

The Biden administration announced that the app will begin to work throughout Mexico, including in the southern region, on Aug. 23, which is likely to increase traffic again.

The app allows migrants on their way to illegally cross the U.S. southern border to set up an appointment with border patrol at ports of entry. The immigrants are processed at ports of entry in Arizona, Texas, and California and released into the country to await asylum hearings.

The House Committee on Homeland Security, after reviewing documents provided by DHS, contend that the CBP One app is being abused, because almost 96 percent of noncitizens using it are unlawfully released into the country.

Panamanian President-elect José Raúl Mulino visits the Reception Center for Migrant Care in Lajas Blancas, in the jungle province of Darién, Panama, on June 28, 2024. Martin Bernetti/AFP via Getty Images

Many illegal immigrants’ asylum claims are ultimately rejected because they came for economic reasons, instead of fearing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.

In 2021, one study by Syracuse University’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse showed that less than 30 percent of illegal immigrants who applied for asylum qualified for it.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sued the Biden administration in 2023 over the CBP One app, claiming that the administration used rulemaking to circumvent immigration laws made by Congress.

“Federal law makes clear that those entering the country illegally should be expelled from the United States, except in very rare circumstances,“ Paxton said in a statement.

”However, the Biden border app does not and cannot verify that an illegal immigrant would qualify for an exception, which would prevent them from being deported.”

Todd Bensman is the senior national security fellow at the conservative Center for Immigration Studies think tank, and he spoke to The Epoch Times on Aug. 13 from Panama, where he assessed the number of migrants coming through the Darien Gap.

Traffic was down substantially, he said, but some migrants he spoke with on the Colombia side of the jungle passage seemed to be in a holding pattern, waiting to see whether others were making it through.

“There’s a lull right now for sure, a decisive lull in Darien,” he said.

Fabiola Suarez from Venezuela rests at Bajo Chiquito in the Darien Gap after a 3-day trek from Colombia on Feb. 18, 2024. She said her destination is Denver, where her husband is waiting. Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times

Venezuelans, who make up the most significant number of migrants trekking through the dangerous route into Panama, may be waiting to see what happens in the wake of their country’s contested presidential election, he said.

President Nicolás Maduro has refused to step down after the opposition party running against the de facto dictator claimed victory in the July 28 election. The United States has refused to recognize Maduro’s claim that he won.

Maduro’s forces have rounded up more than 2,000 dissidents who demonstrated or cast doubt on his having won a third term despite evidence showing that he lost by more than two to one.

Bensman predicted that traffic would stay low for the next couple of months as migrants weigh the situation.

“The migrants are definitely nervous about what the Panamanians said out loud that they were going to do and the fact that some barbed wire went up on some of the trails,” he said.

“But I think that’s temporary because the Panamanians are really kind of still letting everybody in.”

Bensman said Panama is deporting about 50 to 100 migrants with criminal records out of the country each week by plane.

A Venezuelan family treks from Bajo Chiquito to Lajas Blancas on Feb. 18, 2024. The woman, who was limping as she walked, said her knee gave out. Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times

Panamanian officials who spoke with him said American personnel aren’t helping with the operation, he added. And the Biden administration has yet to provide funds to pay for repatriation flights for immigrants as promised.

Mayorkas, who attended Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino’s July 1 inauguration, signed a memorandum of understanding to provide financial assistance to Panama for illegal immigrant repatriation flights out of the country.

Bensman said he believes Mexico’s actions of rounding up migrants near the U.S. border and busing them back south has made the most difference in the number of migrants attempting to illegally cross the United States’ southwest border.

Meanwhile, immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela (CHNV) have been quietly flown into the United States under a Biden administration mass parole program that was recently suspended over fraud concerns.

Up to 30,000 CHNV nationals per month were allowed into the United States under the administration’s use of parole, enabling most to stay up to two years and receive work permits.

The illegal immigrants needed a sponsor and to purchase their own airplane tickets to qualify for the program.

Miami received the bulk of flights of those entering under mass parole, according to CBP statistics.

Border Patrol numbers filtered for those CHNV nationalities arriving at the Miami airport for fiscal year 2023 through June 2024 total almost 335,000, with all interior ports totaling more than half a million, according to CBP statistics.

Mexican federal military troops check the identification of people on the bank of the Rio Grande across from the United States, in Piedras Negras Mexico, on April 21, 2022. Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times

The pause in the CHNV program came after an internal report by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services found fraudulent information in thousands of application forms filed by sponsors. The Federation for American Immigration Reform obtained the report.

Internal government documents showed that the same Social Security numbers, addresses, and phone numbers were used hundreds of times in some cases. Also, 100,948 forms were filled out by 3,218 serial sponsors, meaning sponsors whose numbers appeared on 20 or more forms.

Documents showed that 24 of the 1,000 most used sponsor Social Security numbers belonged to people who were deceased. Also, 100 physical addresses were used between 124 and 739 times on more than 19,000 forms.

Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) called mass parole an “unlawful” program that obscured the problem of an overrun border.

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