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Combating The Censorship Industrial Complex

Authored by Charlie Tidmarsh via RealClear Wire,

It’s been nearly six months since the first installment of the Twitter Files—the journalistic effort by Matt Taibbi, Michael Shellenberger, Bari Weiss, Lee Fang, and many others to expose the myriad channels by which the U.S government cooperated with Twitter on content moderation and censorship—was first published. Twitter Files One, perhaps the mildest of more than 20 unique reports, details the social media company’s internal deliberations in the days before the New York Post’s story about Hunter Biden’s laptop was removed from the site. Later reports have exposed the tendrils of a governmental apparatus that influenced some of the most significant media distortions in recent American history, from the fraudulent Hamilton 68 misinformation tracking dashboard to the FBI’s intimate involvement with Twitter’s content-moderation practices.  

For six months, not much of consequence has happened, either in Washington or the mainstream media, in response. Those who owe us mea culpas have not provided them, tending instead to attack the individual reporters or ignore their findings. Meanwhile, some concerning developments have emerged: Congress formed the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government in order to conduct its own investigation, which would have been encouraging had it not culminated in representative Stacey Plaskett of the U.S. Virgin Islands threatening Taibbi with imprisonment for his testimony; Mark Warner’s RESTRICT Act, which would yield the federal government an enormous media-censorship leeway, was introduced in the Senate in March; Montana banned TikTok statewide; special counsel John Durham’s report on Russian interference was released and received with a profound lack of interest in the FBI’s dubious and error-laden investigation; and the Global Disinformation Index, a British NGO that ranks news outlets on a scale of “risky” to “least risky” (this website is one of the GDI’s ten “riskiest”), was shown to have received funding from the State Department (via the National Endowment for Democracy), which it subsequently lost.  

As shocking and foreboding as these anti-democratic actions are, not many commentators are treating them as interconnected expressions of a single censorship apparatus. Michael Shellenberger and his colleagues Alex Gutentag and Matt Taibbi are now undertaking a monumental attempt at defining that apparatus: they call it the Censorship Industrial Complex. Shellenberger and Gutentag are two of the few journalists who not only take the reality of increased government censorship efforts seriously but also consider it a systemic, unified, and global threat, as opposed to a few discreet but regrettable extensions of U.S. political power.  

The complex is founded on euphemistic, Astro-turfed neologisms—“misinformation,” “disinformation,” “infodemic,” and, absurdly, “malinformation,” which is defined by The Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency as information “which is based on fact, but used out of context to mislead, harm, or manipulate” (my emphasis)—and prosecuted by a coterie of journalists, academics, NGOs and nonprofits who claim neutral expertise in adjudicating what is true and what is false. World governments have eerily aligned their definitions of these terms and then cooperated with non-state actors to censor online speech in accordance, all with the stated and ostensibly noble aim of “reducing harm.”  

Their reporting, which takes place almost exclusively on Substack and Twitter (Gutentag is also a columnist at Tablet), has called attention to the ways in which major democratic governments in Europe, Canada, the UK, and Ireland are replicating the American tactic: define certain types of speech as harmful and then empower a bureaucratic network of think tanks, research agencies, and nonprofits to enforce strict Internet censorship practices that ensure that so-called harmful speech is repressed.  

The most thorough history of how this bureaucracy came into power was provided by Jacob Siegel, a former U.S Army intelligence officer in both Iraq and Afghanistan, writing in Tablet. Strikingly, Siegel compares the emergence of this new complex to its closest analog in American history: McCarthyism. And he locates its legislative origin on December 23, 2016, the date that Barack Obama signed into law the Countering Foreign Propaganda and Disinformation Act. What began as a campaign against foreign information warfare morphed into a domestic censorship apparatus in the aftermath of Donald Trump taking office. In this way, it echoes the Military Industrial Complex by leveraging wartime expansions of government authority towards domestic goals. While the primary agents are certain federal intelligence and security agencies and their cooperating NGOs1, Siegel sees the media as playing a remarkably complicit role in the last seven years. “The American press, he writes, “once the guardian of democracy, was hollowed out to the point that it could be worn like a hand puppet by the U.S security agencies and party operatives.” 

Shellenberger and Gutentag have provided the first invaluable step in a massive project: they’ve defined the problem. “The Twitter Files gave us a window,” Shellenberger writes, “into how government agencies, civil society, and tech companies work together to censor social media users. Now, key nations are attempting to enshrine this coordination into law explicitly.”  

In November 2022, the E.U. passed the Digital Services Act, which legally compels large online media platforms to remove hate speech and disinformation from their platforms under threat of fines as large as six percent of annual global revenue. If passed in the U.S., RESTRICT, with its loopholes and vague jargon, threatens to give the federal government unprecedented ability to spy on the online activity of its citizens. The Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) Bill 2022, which passed the lower house of the Irish Parliament, could soon render the possession of “hateful” digital material illegal in that country. Canadian Bill C-11 has passed in the Senate, amending the former Broadcasting Act to allow the government to filter and promote streamed media. Brazil’s proposed Bill 2630, the so-called Fake News Law, will compel social media platforms to regulate “fake news” and misinformation on their platforms more strictly or face severe fines. An early draft of this bill included a provision that would allow the imprisonment for up to five years of anyone spreading content that “threatened social peace and economic order.”  

According to Shellenberger, Gutentag, and their colleagues at the Substack Public, what tends to unify these efforts is a reliance on identical, porous definitions of what counts as bad or hateful information, as well as an emphasis on words such as “safety,” “harm reduction,” and “protection.” This is precisely what makes the Censorship Industrial Complex so insidious. No one wants truly false information to dominate our important discussion spaces, or genuine hate to crowd out constructive public discourse. But the verbiage these governments operate with grants tremendous leeway in how such speech is defined and censored. This slippage has already played out in the case of Hunter Biden’s laptop, the contents of which were almost immediately deemed “disinformation” as a justification for Twitter to remove the story from its platform in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election; we now know the material was not only legitimate but in the FBI’s possession in December of 2019. 

Shellenberger and Gutentag are calling on any whistleblowers, journalists, or individuals with first-hand experience with this censorship regime to contact them immediately. The first official meeting of this growing anti-censorship movement will be held in London next month. Anyone with information or experience to share is encouraged to reach out on their website, censorshipindustrialcomplex.org, and support Public’s reporting on Substack. 

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These Five Niche Commodities Signal China's Recovery Faltering

China's economic recovery from draconian zero-Covid controls is faltering. Investors had very high hopes earlier this year that the world's second-largest economy would roar back to life and help offset weakness in the global economy. However, six months later, those same hopes have faded into disappointment. 

One of the most immediate warning signs investors are losing faith in the recovery narrative is the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell into bear market territory Tuesday, down about 20% from its Jan. 27 peak. 

While equities are important to track, we shift attention to sliding commodity prices that might give further input about China's economic growth miracle seen over the last several decades, which has yet to reemerge and ignite a spark. Maybe that's because of an aging population or declining workforce or supply chain reset, or enormous debt loads -- whatever is hobbling China's recovery effort might indicate the days of expanding at 6% to 8% a year are over and only 2% or 3% is the new normal. 

On the commodity front, two of the most important commodities to China's economy, copper and iron ore, have been moving lower over the last several months. But five often overlooked commodities essential for economic growth send chilling signs of economic alarm.

"Futures markets for items as diverse as glass, styrene and corn starch are piling on the evidence that China isn't recovering as fast as many people had hoped, after Beijing abandoned the pandemic restrictions late last year that were crushing its economy," Bloomberg said. 

Glass 

China accounts for more than half of the world's plate glass production thanks to the rapid growth of high-rise buildings and vehicle sales in recent decades. Similar to other industries, low margins and supply gluts have troubled producers for years, forcing them to cut output in recent months.

The situation this year looks even more challenging. Glass futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have plunged nearly 20% in the past month, a period when demand usually picks up. The reasons include China's teetering property market and weaker-than-expected vehicle output in April. 

Trucked LNG

China has a vast requirement for natural gas, carried by sea from mega-projects in far-flung places like Qatar and Australia, or over pipelines that stretch across continental Asia. But the last few miles to consumers is often via trucks that criss-cross China's cities, a barometer of the immediate needs of industries from glass-makers to ceramic factories.

That price has fallen to its lowest level in almost two years. Demand is so weak that the nation's top importers of seaborne liquefied natural gas are even offering to resell their shipments abroad. 

Styrene 

Fewer home buyers also means less demand for the purchases that often accompany a new place to live. The price of styrene monomer, a material used for the plastics and rubber that go into appliances like fridges, has declined. China has been the world's fastest growing market in the past decade with capacity climbing to over 40% of the global total.

Dalian futures fell last week to their lowest since February 2021, after a near-5% drop in home appliance sales in the first quarter, according to the National Appliance Information Center. The problems are slower growth in personal incomes and a "low-frequency sales cycle" for white goods, according to Wu Haitao, a director at the center.

Corn Starch 

Corn starch has a wide variety of uses, in soft drinks, as a thickening agent for sauces and in the paper and textiles industries. China produces almost 50 million tons a year. 

Although retail sales have outperformed other economic measurements in the months since China's Covid Zero restrictions were lifted, they grew at a slower pace than expected in April. China's falling population is another headwind: corn starch is a key ingredient in baby formula.

Paper Pulp 

Shanghai pulp futures went into free-fall in February after a sudden recovery in production at paper mills after the Lunar New Year holiday was augmented by resurgent imports. Domestic demand, which was also supposed to rise after China's reopening, couldn't keep up.

As with many commodities, China is the biggest producer and consumer of pulp, used for packaging, publishing and household goods. But the market is so vast that a lot of pulp and paper also needs to be sourced from abroad.

Meanwhile, China's macro data has failed to show the reopening narrative coming to life. 

The faltering recovery led to China's central bank announcing an unexpected cut in mid-May to the amount banks set aside for deposits by 25 basis points, vowing to keep ample liquidity in the interbank system and better fund the real economy.

So the question remains: What's next for the global economy if China's highly anticipated economic rebound doesn't materialize?

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Taliban Deploys Heavy Reinforcements To Iran Border After Clashes

Via The Canary,

Videos circulating social media on Wednesday show Taliban forces heavily reinforcing the Afghan border with Iran, after significant escalation regarding a water dispute between the two countries, which resulted in heavy border clashes between the two sides over the weekend.

The clashes broke out on Saturday between Taliban troops and Iranian border guards, resulting in the death of two Iranian border guards and a Taliban militant, despite unconfirmed reports of further Taliban casualties.

The outbreak of fighting came a week after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned the Taliban to respect Iran’s rights to water from the Helmand River shared between the two countries, under the 1973 Afghan-Iranian Helmand River Treaty. Iran has long accused Afghanistan of restricting the flow of its water to Iran and causing droughts or dry spells.

Via AFP

Each side claimed that the other had initiated the clashes. On May 29, Iran’s Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said that calm had prevailed on the border but that Tehran would respond with force if the Taliban resumed provocation.

The Taliban defense minister said on the day that the fighting broke out that the Afghan government views dialogue and negotiation as the best way to resolve issues. Other Afghan officials echoed the defense minister’s words and called for the prevention of escalation.

Other officials and Afghan figures were seen in videos on social media making inflammatory statements. The most notable of these figures is Taliban leader Abdul Hamid Khorosani, who was seen in a video on Twitter May 28 threatening that "if the [religious authorities] allow us, we will seize Tehran."

"Do not test our strength. You are behind the scenes with the Westerners," Khorosani added, addressing the Islamic Republic. Reports suggest that Khorosani had been dismissed earlier this month over differences with Taliban leadership.

The Iranian Interior Ministry claimed on Wednesday, following the release of the footage on the Afghan-Iranian border, that those who made statements against Iran were "low-ranking" members of the Taliban who have since been "dismissed" by the organization.

Iranian media outlets have also claimed that border-crossings between the two countries are now open, despite having been closed following the outbreak of clashes. "Clashes happened based on a mistake made by the Afghan border guards. We have had several incidents like this so far. We advise Afghan authorities to justify the actions of their border guards," the Iranian Interior Ministry added.

Despite videos showing reinforcements on the border, Iranian media reports suggested that some "elements are trying to provoke the parties involved with rumors and fake news."

One Iranian report said that there is complete calm on the border. However, conflicting reports continue to emerge, with some suggesting that the reinforcements are ongoing.

In December 2021, brief clashes broke out on the Afghan-Iranian border between Iran’s border guards and Taliban fighters. In June of the following year, an Iranian border guard was killed by the Taliban. Iran urged the Afghan government at the time to "punish the perpetrators" and take action to prevent a repeat of such occurrences.

Footage from the weekend border clashes...

Following Washington’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the US army left behind $7.12 billion in military equipment in the country, which immediately fell into the hands of the Taliban.

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Carbon Footprint Of Lab-Grown Beef "Orders Of Magnitude" Worse Than Traditionally Raised: Study

A new study from the University of California, Davis, has found that lab-grown, or "cultivated" meat's environmental impact is likely to be "orders of magnitude" higher than retail beef based on current and near-term production methods.

UC Davis researchers find cultivated meat is likely worse for the climate than retail beef under current production methods. (Credit/ Mosa Meat CC-BY- 4)

The preprint study, which has yet to undergo peer review, concludes that the energy needed and greenhouse gasses emitted during all stages of production of lab-grown meat is far greater than traditionally raised beef.

Researchers conducted a life-cycle assessment of the energy needed and greenhouse gases emitted in all stages of production and compared that with beef. One of the current challenges with lab-grown meat is the use of highly refined or purified growth media, the ingredients needed to help animal cells multiply. Currently, this method is similar to the biotechnology used to make pharmaceuticals. This sets up a critical question for cultured meat production: Is it a pharmaceutical product or a food product? -UC Davis

"If companies are having to purify growth media to pharmaceutical levels, it uses more resources, which then increases global warming potential," according to lead author and doctoral graduate Derrick Risner, of the US Davis Department of Food Science and Technology. "If this product continues to be produced using the “pharma” approach, it’s going to be worse for the environment and more expensive than conventional beef production."

The scientists considered the 'global warming potential' to be the carbon dioxide equivalents emitted for each kilogram of meat produced - and found that the global warming potential of lab-based meat using these purified media is up to 25 times greater than the average for retail beef.

More from UC Davis on the eventual goals of lab-grown (cultured) meat;

One of the goals of the industry is to eventually create lab-grown meat using primarily food-grade ingredients or cultures without the use of expensive and energy-intensive pharmaceutical grade ingredients and processes.

Under that scenario, researchers found cultured meat is much more environmentally competitive, but with a wide range. Cultured meat’s global warming potential could be between 80% lower to 26% above that of conventional beef production, they calculate. While these results are more promising, the leap from “pharma to food” still represents a significant technical challenge for system scale-up.

Our findings suggest that cultured meat is not inherently better for the environment than conventional beef. It’s not a panacea,” said corresponding author Edward Spang, an associate professor in the Department of Food Science and Technology. “It’s possible we could reduce its environmental impact in the future, but it will require significant technical advancement to simultaneously increase the performance and decrease the cost of the cell culture media.”

Even the most efficient beef production systems reviewed in the study outperform cultured meat across all scenarios (both food and pharma), suggesting that investments to advance more climate-friendly beef production may yield greater reductions in emissions more quickly than investments in cultured meat.

Developing the technology that would allow the leap from “pharma to food” is among the goals of the UC Davis Cultivated Meat Consortium, a cross-disciplinary group of scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs and educators researching cultivated meat. Other goals are to establish and evaluate cell lines that could be used to grow meat and find ways to create more structure in cultured meat.

Risner said even if lab-based meat doesn’t result in a more climate-friendly burger, there is still valuable science to be learned from the endeavor.

It may not lead to environmentally friendly commodity meat, but it could lead to less expensive pharmaceuticals, for example,” said Risner. “My concern would just be scaling this up too quickly and doing something harmful for the environment.”

Other authors include Yoonbin Kim and Justin Siegel of UC Davis and Cuong Nguyen of the University of California Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources.

The research was funded by the UC Davis Innovation Institute for Food and Health and the National Science Foundation Growing Convergence Research grant.

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"See You In The Hague!": Lindsey Graham Snarks Back After Russia Issues Arrest Warrant

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has hit back after Russia issued a warrant for his arrest - calling it a "badge of honor."

"Here’s an offer to my Russian ‘friends’ who want to arrest and try me for calling out the Putin regime as being war criminals: “I will submit to [the] jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court if you do," Graham said in a May 29 press release.

"Come and make your best case. See you in The Hague!" he continued, adding "To know that my commitment to Ukraine has drawn the ire of Putin’s regime brings me immense joy."

"I will continue to stand with and for Ukraine’s freedom until every Russian soldier is expelled from Ukrainian territory."

Graham, a massive proponent of the Ukraine war, stated in a video of his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that "the Russians are dying," adding that the US military aid provided to Ukraine was "the best money we've ever spent."

While Graham appeared to have made the comments at separate points in the conversation, the brief video produced by Ukraine’s presidential office juxtaposed them, sparking outrage in Russia.

Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Sunday that it was hard to imagine a greater shame for the United States than having individuals like Graham as senators. -Epoch Times

In February, Graham said that the US shouldn't be worried about provoking Russia by helping Ukraine.

"The British are training Ukrainian pilots. I believe a decision will be imminent here when we get back to Washington that the administration will start training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. They need the weapons system," he told ABC's "This Week" on Feb. 19.

Graham has urged his fellow politicians to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, and has advocated for the US to begin training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s

"They need the weapons system," said Graham in the above interview, which echoed VP Kamala Harris' claim that Russia was guilt of "crimes against humanity."

"So, we need to do two things quickly," said Graham. "Make Russia a state sponsor of terrorism under U.S. law, which would make it harder for China to give weapons to Russia, and we need to start training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 now."

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University Of Colorado Declares Misgendering An "Act Of Violence"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The University of Colorado Boulder (Boulder) is under fire this week for a statement on the “Pride Office” website stating that misgendering people can be considered an “act of violence.”

The guide on pronouns is reportedly the work of students associated with the office and states that “choosing to ignore or disrespect someone’s pronouns is not only an act of oppression but can also be considered an act of violence.”

It is a familiar position for many in higher education.

Opposing viewpoints are now routinely declared to be violence. That allows professors and students to rationalize their own act of violence or censorship.

The most vivid example was recently seen at Hunter College, which is part of the CUNY system. Professor Shellyne Rodríguez recently was fired after holding a machete to the neck of a New York Post reporter and threatened to “chop you up.” However, Hunter College decided not to fire her over a prior incident in which she trashed a pro-life table run by students.

Rodríguez spotted students with pro-life material at the college. She was captured on a videotape telling the students that “you’re not educating s–t […] This is f–king propaganda. What are you going to do, like, anti-trans next? This is bulls–t. This is violent. You’re triggering my students.” Even after a remarkably polite student said that he was “sorry,” Rodríguez would have nothing of it. After all, espousing pro-life views is now “violence.” Rodríguez rejected the apology and declared “No you’re not — because you can’t even have a f–king baby. So you don’t even know what that is. Get this s–t the f–k out of here.”

Just a week earlier, a professor stopped another “violent” display of pro-life views in New York. Professor Renee Overdyke of the State University of New York at Albany shut down a pro-life display and then resisted arrest.

At the University of California at Santa Barbara, feminist studies associate professor Mireille Miller Young criminally assaulted pro-life advocates on campus, and later pleaded guilty to the crime. She was defended by faculty and students, including many who said she was “triggered” by a pro-life display and that pro-life advocates were “terrorists” who did not deserve free speech.

It is that easy. You simply declare opposing views “violent” and then you can justify your own violence as a matter of self-defense.

The Colorado controversy does not involve acts of violence over misgendering. Moreover, the guide reflects a deep-felt concern that using someone’s pronouns incorrectly, even unintentionally, leads to “dysphoria, exclusion and alienation.” There are also some positive recommendations in dealing with these difficult situations.

However, this is a university site and there are countervailing free speech costs to characterizing of opposing views on pronouns as violence. As have previously discussed how other countries are prosecuting those who “misgender.” Schools in the United States have promised disciplinary action against any misgendering despite some court cases ruling for faculty with opposing views on pronouns. Even passing out “he/his” candies can result in a university investigation.

Conservative sites like Campus Reform have reported on the Colorado controversy and sought clarification.

Universities are often presented with difficult countervailing interests. On one hand, it must maintain a welcoming and tolerant environment. On the other hand, it must protect free speech values, including the right to express unpopular views or values.

Colorado students have every right to declare misgendering as violence in their eyes, even if many of us disagree. However, the university has an obligation to clearly establish that such views are not the policy or approach of the university itself.  The site states “This information was created by students, for students. The university supports an inclusive environment.” It should state that “while the university supports an inclusive environment, the statements on this site are not official statements or policies of the university.” Otherwise, the university should address the free speech implications of declaring misgendering as a violent act.

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Warming To Duration As Large Specs Are Record Short Stocks

Authored by Steven Vannelli via Knowledge Leaders Capital blog,

Leading into the weekend, where the debt ceiling had not been settled, markets were exhibiting very interesting positioning. To start, US Treasuries across the maturity spectrum were hugely out of favor. Net speculator positioning in options and futures were as short as they have every been.

The charts below show the 2-year, 5-year and 10-year US Treasury.

At the same time, investors were very short stocks. The next couple charts show speculator net positioning in the S&P 500 and the MSCI EAFE Index (a proxy for the developed world ex-US).

[ZH: The most recent positioning data from CFTC shows that these participants hold a net short futures position of nearly 405,000 contracts, the most since September 2007. Additionally, their short positioning has increased over each of the most recent four weeks. Just for context, the S&P 500 peaked on Oct. 11, 2007 at 1576 points, triggering the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, a month after bearish positioning was as high as it is today.]

Hopefully, a successful debt ceiling deal brings some risk-taking back into the markets. At present, all money flows are going into money market funds, which is good news and bad news. The bad news of course is that these are money flows not going into risky assets. The good news is that, should the inflation fever break convincingly and US Treasury rates roll over, there is a tremendous amount of money that will be looking for higher returns.

While early indications seem to suggest that spending will be curbed in the next few years relative to the baseline by about $50 billion, while at the same time the US Treasury may issue a flood of US Treasury bills to rebuild its coffers, perhaps the more attractive play right now is the medium-to-longer dated US Treasuries.

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US Flexes With Low B-1 Bomber Flyover As Balkan Tensions Boil

At a moment tensions are on edge in the Balkans over a fresh crisis between the Serbian minority of northern Kosovo and ethnic Albanians, which over the weekend saw dozens of NATO peacekeeping forces injured while trying to quell fierce protests, the United States decided it was time for some muscle-flexing.

Two US Air Force B-1B Lancer bomber aircraft conducted a low flyover of Sarajevo and other cities in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on Tuesday. It had been pre-announced at the start of this week and described as "a sign of the strong partnership between the United States and the Armed Forces of BiH, according to a statement in the English language news portal Sarajevo Times. A US Air Forces statement cited in the publication said it would serve further as a sign of the "permanent dedication of the US to the sovereignty, territorial integrity and multi-ethnic nature of Bosnia and Herzegovina."

While the US has chastised Kosovo authorities for making brash, unilateral moves which have inflamed ethnic tensions with Serbs, and resulted in Belgrade sending Serbian national troops to the Kosovo border, it seems Washington still wants to remind Serbia of US military power in the region.

On the same day Russia, which has long been a staunch supporter of Serbian interests, called on the West to silence its "false propaganda" regarding ethnic Serbian issues and Kosovo taking away their rights.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova blamed NATO forces for exacerbating the past days of violence which started when Albanian mayors were installed over Serb-dominant communities in Kosovo. "Not only have they shown their incompetence… [they] themselves became a source of unnecessary violence, an escalation factor,she said in reference to peacekeeping forces that clashed with Serbian protesters.

She said that instead of protecting Serbs from the crackdown of a suppressive state, they "supported Pristina’s xenophobic aspirations, basically turning into terror accomplices" by defending local authorities.

Zakharova then in the briefing told the West to "silence its false propaganda" and to stop alleging that its Serbs provoking the clashes.

"While looking for the guilty, mediators from the US and the EU should muster up some courage and look in the mirror," the FM spokesperson continued. "To de-escalate, decisive steps are needed, and not half-measures like an idea proposed by the US to temporarily ‘move’ the newly-minted ‘mayors’ from municipal buildings to other facilities," Zakharova stressed.

Behind the latest violence is a long-running demand that Kosovo establish Serbian municipalities for Serbian strongholds in Kosovo. Pristina authorities, however, worry that this would be precursor for a breakaway statelet. Multiple dozens of NATO troops KFOR troops have been injured in the clashes.

An official NATO statement on Tuesday said, "NATO strongly condemns the unprovoked attacks against KFOR troops in northern Kosovo, which have led to a number of them being injured. Such attacks are totally unacceptable. Violence must stop immediately. We call on all sides to refrain from actions that further inflame tensions, and to engage in dialogue." NATO also plans to send hundreds more troops.

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Faced With New Round Of Demonetization Indians Turn To Gold

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

The Indian central bank has announced another round of demonetization with a plan to withdraw 2,000-rupee notes from circulation.

The announcement led to a big jump in gold bullion sales.

The 2,000-rupee note will remain legal tender, but they will have to be deposited or exchanged for smaller denominations by Sept. 30.

The 2,000 rupee note ($24.19) is the largest currency denomination in India. According to Reuters, they make up about 10.8% of the currency in circulation.

T.V Somanathan, the top official at the Indian Finance Ministry, said confiscation of the 2,000 rupee notes wouldn’t cause any disruptions “either in normal life or in the economy.”

His assurances fall flat given history.

We’ve seen this play before. The Indian government announced a surprise demonetization policy in the fall of 2016 meant to drive so-called black money out of the shadows and declared that all of the 1,000 and 500-rupee notes then in circulation would no longer be valid. The suddenly worthless notes made up 86% of the currency in circulation in the country at the time. The move made virtually all of the cash in India valueless.

The government produced new 500 and 2,000-rupee notes to replace the old currency.

Now the government is pulling those 2,000-rupee notes out of circulation.

The government policy announced in 2016 was meant to force Indians to trade in the old notes for new ones. But there was a catch. The government placed limits on the amount of currency Indians could exchange, but no limits on bank deposits until the end of the year. The idea was to push Indians into putting their hoarded cash in the bank – thus bringing it “out of the shadows.” The demonetization policy resulted in severe cash shortages. As many as 90% of ATMs in some regions of the country completely ran out of currency.

With more time to exchange notes this time around, the latest round of demonetization is not expected to be as disruptive.

War on Cash

The Indian government’s move was part of the broader war on cash. The goal was to bring “black money” out of the shadows so it can be tracked and taxed. The vast majority of transactions in India are in cash. It is an overwhelmingly cash economy and virtually every Indian has currency stashed away in their home.

Transactions using black money mean no taxes are collected. Government estimates show that only 1% of the Indian population pays any taxes at all. By making the 1,000 and 500 rupee notes valueless, government officials hoped to force the black money into the light so they could get their cut.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) justified eliminating the 2,000-rupee note, saying they are at the end of their useful life and citing evidence showing 2,000 rupee notes aren’t typically used in transactions. But the real motivation for this latest round of demonetization is likely the same as the first – to better track and tax transactions.

This war on cash isn’t isolated to India. The European Central Bank stopped producing and issuing 500-euro notes in 2018, and officials in the US have floated the idea of eliminating the $100 bill.

More recently, governments have experimented with central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a cash replacement.

There are also political motives for getting the 2,000-rupee notes out of circulation now.

The move comes ahead of elections in four Indian states and a national election next spring. According to Reuters, “Most of India’s political parties are believed to hoard cash in high denomination bills to fund election campaign expenses to get around tough spending limits imposed by the Election Commission.”

Forcing people to deposit the notes will also help boost bank deposits. Indian banks have struggled to maintain deposit levels large enough to support the country’s massive credit expansion.

Gold to the Rescue

When the government pulled 1,000 and 500-rupee notes out of circulation in 2016, Indians turned their “black money” into gold.

Tax officials attempting to track black money say gold jewelry sales spiked the night of Nov. 8, 2016, after the government announced the demonetization policy.

“Jewelers offered a platform to convert unreported cash into gold,” one official said.

To avoid reporting the transactions, sellers simply split single transactions into multiple sales in order to keep them below the Rs 2 lakh threshold that triggers reporting requirements in India.

After the RBI announced the elimination of 2,000-rupee notes earlier this month, local newspapers reported a similar rush to jewelry shops to exchange the notes for gold. The Hindustan Times reported a 10 to 20% increase in gold sales after the announcement.

People scrambled to buy gold and silver in bulk in bullion markets, leading to increase in prices, dealers in several states said.”

Gold was also a lifeline for Indians pummeled by the economic storm caused by the government response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Indians understand that gold tends to store value and that in the end gold is money. If they have gold, they know they will be able to get the goods and services they need – even in the event of an economic meltdown or a cash crunch.

Gold is not just a luxury in India. Even poor people buy gold in the Asian nation. According to an ICE 360 survey in 2018, one in every two households in India purchased gold within the last five years. Overall, 87% of households in the country own some amount of the yellow metal. Even households at the lowest income levels in India own some gold. According to the survey, more than 75% of families in the bottom 10% had managed to buy gold.

It’s no surprise that when faced with the possibility of another disruption to the cash system, Indians have turned to gold.

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"Safe Harbor": New Evidence Offers Insight Into Hunter Biden & His Collapsing World Of Corruption

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in the New York Post on newly discovered exchanges within the Biden family over the collapsing fortunes of Hunter Biden in 2018.

As one of the primary conduits for influence peddling in the Biden family, Hunter appeared to be in a free fall and his Uncle Jim appeared to offer him a “safe harbor” and to guarantee “all the deals are still alive.”

Here is the column:

In 2018, Hunter Biden’s world was collapsing.

The New York Times had run a story on one of his shady deals with the Chinese and his father, then vice president, was pulled into the vortex.

It appears that Hunter was in a free fall and his uncle Jim Biden reached out in newly discovered messages to offer him a “safe harbor.”

The exchange is an insight into a train wreck of a life of the scion of one of the most powerful families in the country.

However, it is also insight into a world of influence peddling where millions simply evaporated in the coffers of the Biden family.

On their face, the messages seem to contradict public statements from President Biden on the foreign-influence peddling that used to fund Hunter’s drug-infused, self-destructive lifestyle.

The Times story caused a panic in the Biden family.

Despite a largely supportive media, the Bidens have long been known for influence peddling.

Jim Biden has been repeatedly criticized for marketing his access to his brother in pitches to clients.

Hunter knew that the Times story was only the tip of an iceberg.

There were deals all over the world with foreign figures worth millions and some of these figures had close ties to foreign intelligence or regimes.

As revealed recently by the House Oversight Committee, the Bidens constructed a labyrinth of corporations and accounts to transfer millions from these deals to a variety of Biden family members, including grandchildren.

Free fall

Nevertheless, Joe Biden repeatedly claimed as a presidential candidate and as president that he had no knowledge of any foreign dealings of his son.

Those denials now appear patently false.

The laptop includes pictures and appointments of Hunter’s foreign business associates with Joe Biden.

It also includes a recording concerning a Times report on Dec. 12, 2018, detailing Hunter’s dealings with Ye Jianming, the head of CEFC China Energy Company.

Ye would later be arrested for corruption.

As Biden associates pushed the Times to change aspects of the story, Joe Biden called to report on the results.

In his message, Biden ends his call to Hunter with the statement “I think you’re clear. And anyway if you get a chance, give me a call, I love you.”

The new messages indicate that the Bidens were worried that Hunter was in a free fall as these dealings were becoming known and revenue was declining.

Jim Biden appears to be rushing to get Hunter to work the problem with the family.

He assures him that they can find him “a safe harbor” and that “I can work with you[r] father alone!”

The messages may refer to the fact that Hunter’s past complaint that he was giving as much as half of his proceeds to his father and was now facing towering financial demands.

He appears to have cut off the family.

That is a dangerous development for a man who had a long struggle with drugs and alcohol.

Hunter blew through a fortune on narcotics and women, including allegations that he may have used a shared credit card with his father to pay off prostitutes.

Both Joe and Jim Biden were reaching out to Hunter to assure him that he was in the “clear” and that there is a “safe harbor.”

However, Jim pushed him to remain in contact and in the fold: “I cannot find you, believe it or not I have been looking. I [have] driven by Hallie’s, you fathers. Called texted you. . . . I want to help all the deals are still alive.”

Putting aside the genuine desire to protect a family member with a history of drug abuse, the unpredictable Hunter also represented a threat to the entire family.

A panicked Hunter threatened more than family harmony. There were millions that were being generated in countries like Ukraine, Romania, Russia and China.

The messages show that the Hunter was spinning out of control and needed money fast — a lot of money. He told Jim Biden that he could not even afford “food and gas,” including his monthly alimony to his ex-wife Kathleen Buhle.

He relays how President Biden was told that he “was in a real danger zone.”

Classic corruption

These messages highlight another inconvenient fact: Hunter was hardly a figure who generated confidence or cash.

In 2018, he was an utter mess at the very time that foreign figures were funneling money to him.

He was clearly noncommunicative with his family and still gushing money.

He had previously complained that the Russians had blackmail material on him. He was a danger not just to himself.

In his later book, Hunter admits that he was a crack addict and alcoholic: “drinking a quart of vodka a day by yourself in a room is absolutely, completely debilitating” as well as “smoking crack around the clock.”

Given these admissions, why were so many foreign figures rushing to give this human wrecking ball millions?

He not only lacked expertise in areas like energy or mining, but he was barely able to function, according to his own account.

The answer seems abundantly clear.

This was classic corruption. Indeed, influence peddling has long been the favorite form of corruption in Washington.

Yet, these latest messages add a particularly sad element to this scandal.

Joe and Jim Biden were propping up a man who was barely able to function.

However, Hunter was still the conduit for allegedly millions in foreign money.

He was the firebreak between the money and any scandal.This was made evident in a recent and rare sit-down interview; MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle delicately broached the scandals involving Hunter by emphasizing that it is a “personal” matter and assuring the president (and the viewers) that the still unknown charges involve “no ties to you.”

Hunter increasingly looks like the designated defendant of the Bidens; the sin-eater who may have to take one for the team in the form of a couple tax charges.

Yet, even now, to use Jim Biden’s words, “This can work.”

Hunter’s new “safe harbor” may be a limited indictment that conspicuously avoided charges as an unregistered agent.

Likewise, Attorney General Merrick Garland has seen to that by steadfastly refusing to appoint a special counsel despite references to the president getting a proposed cut of these deals and instructions to use code names for him like the “Big Guy” to conceal his role.

Most recently, an IRS whistleblower came forward to accuse the Justice Department of interfering with the tax investigation of Hunter by “slow walking” the investigation and making a series of decisions that worked to his advantage.

As made clear by Jim Biden, there is always a plan in the Biden family. Back in 2018, he assured his nephew that “as usual just need several months of [your father’s] help for this to work. Let’s talk about it. It makes perfect sense to me.” In the meantime, the message from Uncle Jim likely remains “stay calm and carry on.”

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AI-Mania Melt-Up Accelerates But Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Jump

A debt-ceiling deal? Maybe... The T-Bill curve compressed a bit (but not totally)...

And USA sovereign risk eased a smidge...

Source: Bloomberg

On the macro-economic side, home prices were steady (but down YoY NSA), consumer confidence declined (with labor market signals weaker), and Texas manufacturing shit the bed.

On the micro side, it was all about NVDA as talk of an AI Supercomputer over the weekend pushed the giant chip company above a $1 trillion market cap...

Source: Bloomberg

NVDA supported Nasdaq and S&P.

Around 1330ET, Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin dropped a clanger, admitting that "inflation will be more stubborn than many hoped," adding that "however, I look at it, the inflation rate is too high." That legged the broad equity markets lower again, dragging Nasdaq down to almost unchanged (and NVDA down to $400) before the machines got back to work and lifted things.

By the close, Dow and Small Caps were the laggards, S&P hovered around unch, while Nasdaq clung to gains

0-DTE traders started pressuring NVDA shortly after the open but also defended the $400 level and sparked a market ramp late on...

Source: SpotGamma

The machines defended NVDA $400 like crazy today ($404.50 ish was the threshold for $1 trillion market cap)...

C3.AI soared over 30% today (ahead of its earnings tomorrow)...

...on a massive gamma squeeze...

We also note that index overlay selling hit the Nasdaq BEFORE NVDA rolled over...

Oh, and then there's this shitshow in market breadth... probably nothing right?

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid all day (after yesterday's time off) with the short-end outperforming (2Y -11bps, 30Y -6bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike expectations for June, July, and September all rose notably today - especially July which is now pricing fully a 25bps hike...(NOTE that at the other end of the STIRs curve, expectations for rates in Jan '24 dovishly dropped today)

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar chopped around all day but ended slightly lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied over the weekend on debt ceiling deal news and is up notably since Friday's close...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, US wheat prices fell below those of corn for the first time since 2013...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices tumbled with WTI breaking back below $70...

Gold ramped back up to recent resistance today...

Finally, two fun charts to think about.

First, the last time the Nasdaq 100 (mega-cap tech) was this high relative to the Russell 2000 (small caps), things did not end well...

Source: Bloomberg

And second, what if this AI-gasm is all about dragging forward future sales (a la COVID supply chain corruption)?

Source: Bloomberg

Just some food for over-exuberant, chasing thought.

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McCarthy Threatens To Hold FBI Director In Contempt Over Stonewalled Biden Evidence

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) on Tuesday threatened to hold FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt if the agency continues to shelter the Biden family from congressional investigators seeking key documents.

Wray has until end of day Tuesday to produce several FD-1023 forms - records of interactions with confidential sources - from June 2020, which contain the word "Biden." The forms were requested by House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-KY) after he issued a subpoena to compel the agency to produce the forms.

"So let me not just tell you. Let me tell Director Christopher Wray, right here, right now: If he misses the deadline today, I am prepared to move contempt charges in Congress against him," McCarthy told Fox News on Tuesday.

More via the Epoch Times;

In a May 3 letter, House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) revealed that they received “highly credible unclassified whistleblower disclosures” that the FBI possessed an unclassified record that “describes an alleged criminal scheme involving then-vice president Joe Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions.”

The specifics of these allegations are unclear since, despite repeated requests to hand over the document, the FBI has refused to share it on several occasions.

FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 2, 2021. (Mandel Ngan/Pool via Reuters)

Democrats have dismissed Comer’s inquiry—and larger GOP inquiries into the FBI and the Department of Justice—as partisan.

The White House called Comer’s inquiry an “unfounded politically motivated [attack].”

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) accused Comer of “recycling unsubstantiated claims.” He called the inquiry “a baseless partisan stunt.”

Wray is set to meet with the Oversight Committee on May 31, a day after the deadline.

The FBI declined to comment on the forthcoming meeting or the document but said it was committed to working with Congress.

“The FBI’s mission is to protect the American people. Releasing confidential source information could potentially jeopardize investigations and put lives at risk. The FBI remains committed to cooperating with Congress’ oversight requests on this matter and others as we always have,” an agency spokesperson told The Epoch Times.

During the previous Congress, Democrats voted to hold several allies of President Donald Trump, including figures like former White House advisers Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro, as well as former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and others, for failing to cooperate with the Jan. 6 panel’s probe into the Capitol breach.

The men each claimed that executive privilege protected them from having to testify or turn over documents, an argument advanced by Trump’s legal team.

At the time, while promising not to be “political” with such procedures, McCarthy warned Democrats that they were opening a Pandora’s box not easily closed again.

Meanwhile, prominent Republicans, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), have called for Wray’s removal from office.

If Wray fails to hand over the document, and McCarthy moves forward with contempt of Congress charges, it will be up to Attorney General Merrick Garland to choose whether to pursue a criminal investigation into the matter.

The Bidens’ Business Dealings

Republicans have long sought to learn more about possible ethical concerns in the Bidens’ business dealings.

In January 2023, days after Republicans retook control of the House, Comer sent a request for information related to art sales made by Hunter Biden.

Just weeks before the 2020 election, the New York Post published a report documenting findings from Hunter Biden’s laptop, which had reportedly been forgotten at a computer repair shop.

Among other findings, emails on the laptop revealed that while he was still the vice president, Joe Biden had been introduced to a top executive at the Ukrainian energy firm Burisma.

Dear Hunter, thank you for inviting me to DC and giving an opportunity to meet your father,” reads an April 17, 2015, email allegedly sent from Vadym Pozharskyi, a Burisma executive, to Hunter Biden.

In December 2015, Joe Biden candidly admitted to the Council on Foreign Relations in 2018 that he threatened to withhold a $1 billion loan guarantee from Ukraine if a prosecutor looking into Burisma was not removed from his post. This threat came about eight months after Pozharskyi allegedly met the elder Biden.

“I looked at them and said: I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money,” Biden said of the affair in 2018.

“Well, son of a [expletive],” Biden continued. “He got fired.”

If true, this would mean that Biden’s oft-repeated claim that he has had no role in his son’s business dealings is false.

‘Don’t Mention Joe Being Involved’

James Gilliar, one of Hunter Biden’s business partners, allegedly told fellow partner Tony Bobulinski in a May 20, 2017, email not to mention “Joe being involved.”

“Don’t mention Joe being involved, it’s only when u [sic] are face to face, I know u [sic] know that, but they are paranoid,” Gilliar told Bobulinski.

Bobulinski, who confirmed the authenticity of the emails in a later statement, replied at the time, “OK, they should be paranoid about things.”

Another email relayed from Gilliar to Hunter Biden, Bobulinski, and a fourth business partner on May 13, 2017, described the breakdown of each member’s shares in a Chinese business venture dubbed Sino-Hawk.

“Sino for the Chinese side, Hawk for Hunter’s brother Beau’s favorite animal,” Bobulinski later explained.

Gilliar suggested each of the primary business partners would receive 20 percent. Another participant, called “Jim” by Gilliar, and likely referring to Joe Biden’s brother, apparently was to receive 10 percent. Finally, the other 10 percent would be “held by H for the big guy.”

On Oct. 22, 2020, Bobulinski made a public statement confirming that “the big guy” was indeed a reference to Joe Biden.

The document alleged by whistleblower allegations could give a more solid basis to allegations of Biden’s business dealings if recovered.

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