| 0 comments ]

Replace Biden With Gavin Newsom? Polls Show Democrats Would Still Lose

Remember when it was "conspiracy theory" to question Joe Biden's cognitive abilities? After Joe Biden's dismal debate performance in Atlanta this week, the media-sphere is swirling with conjecture over a potential replacement for the doddering candidate.  The Biden team continues to insist that he won't drop out of the race by the time the Democratic National Convention launches in Chicago this August.  That doesn't mean the DNC won't consider picking another candidate to run, though.

Convention rules are not legal requirements, they are simply rules dictated by the DNC and by tradition.  Delegates that already voted for Biden are supposed to continue their support, but there are avenues by which they can change their minds and trigger an open nomination process on the convention floor.  It's telling that far-left media outlets like Time Magazine and Politico are already war-gaming the possibility of Biden stepping down; that's how poorly received his debate performance was.

Following Thursday's debate Johanna Maska, a Democratic consultant and former Barack Obama aide, posted a video on X urging her party to change its 2024 presidential candidate. She said: "We cannot do this, Democrats. Joe Biden can't put a sentence together. We have to change our candidate, and we have so many good candidates who are sitting on the sidelines."

While some (like Maska) don't like the idea, one name that is continually mentioned in this discourse is California Governor Gavin Newsom.  Many Democrats and some Republicans believe he would be the primary alternative if Biden is somehow removed from the running.  Their suspicions have merit - Last year Newsom was given ample attention by the establishment media and he did act as if he was running for president.     

Newsom's capacity for authoritarianism was made clear during his strict pandemic lockdowns, as was his hypocrisy when he was caught attending lavish parties while millions of other Californians were ordered to stay home and away from friends and family.  

His one and only talent seems to be a capacity for twisting statistics to fit his false narratives; he has consistently misrepresented California's increasing economic distress as "success" and downplayed growing homelessness and crime.  His advantage is that he's able to do this with a completely straight face, and for those unfamiliar with such statistics and how they can be manipulated, Newsom appears knowledgeable and formidable. 

Beyond that, he's not very impressive as a candidate and the polls show this.

A March Rasmussen Reports survey of 912 likely voters found that former President Trump would lead by 17 points (51 percent to 34) if Newsom were the 2024 Democratic nominee.

In February 2024, an Emerson College Polling survey of 1,225 showed that Trump would win in a hypothetical White House race against Newsom by 10 points (46 percent to 36).

A November 2023 Fox News poll of 1,001 registered voters found that Trump would win an election against Newsom by four points (49 percent to 45).

Other candidates fare even worse.  Trump crushes Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (also a potential alternative to Biden) by 12 points in Emerson polls.  

Kamala Harris loses by 6.6 points in Real Clear Politics polling.  Meanwhile, former first lady Michelle Obama also trailed behind Trump in a hypothetical matchup (50 to 43 percent) according to Rasmussen.

Bottom line?  The Democrats might want to replace Biden, but they don't have anyone that will win according to the current data.  A switch may occur simply as a way to avoid any irreparable disgrace to the party going into November, but it's important to remember that Biden is simply a foil, a mouthpiece for a political ideology of socialist extremism that the majority of Americans now find dangerous and ugly.  Every candidate the Democrats put forward will espouse the same exact rhetoric and promote the same exact policies. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/30/2024 - 15:45
https://ift.tt/ZCuBANg
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/ZCuBANg
via IFTTT

Replace Biden With Gavin Newsom? Polls Show Democrats Would Still Lose SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

Tropical Storm Beryl Set To Become 'Major Hurricane' 

Tropical Storm Beryl, currently in the Atlantic Basin and east of the Windward Islands, could strengthen into the year's first hurricane before reaching Barbados late Sunday.  

"Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and become a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday. It will bring destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surges," the National Hurricane Center wrote in a message on Saturday. 

NHC issued a hurricane watch for Barbados as Beryl gained strength about 820 miles (1,320 km) east-southeast of the island nation. Beryl could soon become the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic storm season. 

"The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact, it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the low wind-shear conditions," NHC senior hurricane specialist John Cangialosi wrote in a note. 

Cangialosi said, "The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands."

"There have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year," he noted.

In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season of 17 to 25 named storms, including as many as 13 hurricanes.

We have pointed out that this hurricane season, the Biden administration must contend with an elevated number of storms. It only takes one major storm to disrupt Gulf Coast refineries, which would catapult average gasoline prices at the pump to the politically sensitive $4 a gallon before the elections this fall.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/29/2024 - 16:55
https://ift.tt/6wpqUK0
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/6wpqUK0
via IFTTT

Tropical Storm Beryl Set To Become 'Major Hurricane'  SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

CDC Recommends New COVID-19 Vaccines For Nearly All Americans

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 27 recommended forthcoming COVID-19 vaccines for virtually all Americans.

“CDC recommends everyone ages 6 months and older receive an updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine to protect against the potentially serious outcomes of COVID-19 this fall and winter whether or not they have ever previously been vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine,” the agency said in a statement.

The COVID-19 vaccines now available, which are also broadly recommended, target the XBB.1.5 strain. But observational data indicate they provide short-lived protection against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization.

U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials, acting on advice from their advisers, recently directed vaccine manufacturers to produce COVID-19 vaccines with updated formulations.

Updated vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna will target the KP.2 variant, while an updated shot from Novavax will target the JN.1 variant.

The updated formulations are expected to be available in September.

CDC advisers earlier Thursday unanimously advised the CDC to recommend the forthcoming vaccines to virtually all Americans, even though no clinical efficacy or safety data are available for them.

Data from animal testing suggest that the vaccines trigger higher levels of antibodies than the shots currently available, manufacturers said previously.

CDC advisers considered a risk-based recommendation that would only say certain groups receive one of the vaccines but ultimately opted for what is known as a universal recommendation.

Dr. Jamie Loehr, one of the members, said before the vote that the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating young people, who are generally at little risk from COVID-19, had him leaning towards a risk-based approach. He changed his mind, though, after listening to a presentation from a CDC researcher.

Dr. Denise Jamieson, another member, said that members should not “get too caught up in cost-effectiveness currently.” She said, “If we compare it to other vaccine-preventable diseases it seems like a really good investment.”

Each dose of a new shot could cost up to $130, according to estimates presented during the meeting.

Pooled effectiveness estimates from studies of the currently available vaccines, which target the XBB strain, and the last slate of shots, which were bivalent, found that effectiveness against hospitalization due to COVID-19 was below 50 percent, the original threshold laid out by regulators.

Researchers with the CDC and other institutions have also found the protection wanes over time, one reason U.S. officials have turned the COVID-19 vaccine model into a once-a-year update similar to the influenza vaccination program.

Many Americans took the original COVID-19 vaccines but most have opted against receiving the newer shots. As of May 11, just 14.4 percent of children and 22.5 percent of adults have received one of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines, according to CDC surveys, which also found that many doctors have stopped recommending the shots because they’re focused on promoting other vaccines and worry recommending COVID-19 vaccination could increase hesitancy among patients to receiving the other vaccines.

Experts said in Thursday’s meeting that the message needs to be that people need another shot.

“We have to keep saying that over and over and over again—you need this year’s vaccine to be protected against this year’s strain of the virus,” Carol Hayes, who represents the American College of Nurse-Midwives as a liaison to the CDC panel, said during the session.

The CDC estimated that up to 116,000 hospitalizations from COVID-19 will be prevented over the next year with universal vaccine recommendations, assuming an initial 75 percent effectiveness against hospitalization.

The effectiveness was projected in certain scenarios to drop to 50 percent after three months, the CDC said.

The KP.2 strain is the dominant strain in the United States as of May 25, according to CDC data. The closely related KP.3 strain, and the JN.1 variant, are also causing a number of cases.

Modeling through June 22 projects the rise of a new strain called LB.1.

A spokesperson for the CDC told The Epoch Times recently that LB.1 “has the potential to infect some people more easily based on a single deletion in a spike protein“ but ”there is currently no evidence that LB.1 causes more severe disease.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/29/2024 - 15:10
https://ift.tt/hDAct7e
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/hDAct7e
via IFTTT

CDC Recommends New COVID-19 Vaccines For Nearly All Americans SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

Nothing To See Here, Just A Smiling Robot Face Made From Living Human Flesh

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The New Scientist has posted a freaky video showing an experimental face intended for a robot that is made from living human skin cells, and is capable of smiling.

What?

Yes, you read that correctly.

The outlet writes “a smiling face made from living human skin could one day be attached to a humanoid robot, allowing machines to emote and communicate in a more life-like way, say researchers.”

What researchers are saying this now? Was Dr Evil not available for comment?

Imagine that pink nightmare smiling down at you as it announces it’s your new master.

The article continues, “The living tissue is a cultured mix of human skin cells grown in a collagen scaffold and placed on top of a 3D-printed resin base.”

Of course it is. Wouldn’t expect anything less for Robot McSkin Face.

It continues, “Unlike previous similar experiments, the skin also contains the equivalent of the ligaments that, in humans and other animals, are buried in the layer of tissue beneath the skin, holding it in place and giving it incredible strength and flexibility.”

So you’ll struggle to rip it off as you desperately attempt to reveal to the world the true identity of the new overlord.

But seriously, why does it need to be made of living human skin?

Can’t we just have the future killer robots look like robots please?

Are they intent on recreating The Terminator movies exactly?

Dystopian films and books are supposed to be warnings, not blueprints.

Remember They Live?

* * *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/28/2024 - 15:25
https://ift.tt/roahdi1
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/roahdi1
via IFTTT

Nothing To See Here, Just A Smiling Robot Face Made From Living Human Flesh SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

Canada, The Unexpected Winner In The Global Oil Boom

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Canada’s oil output is booming as producers ramp up projects and extraction amid expanded market access and narrowing discounts of the Canadian heavy crude to the U.S. benchmark.

The Trans Mountain Expansion Project, now finally completed and operational after years of delays, is changing the fortunes of the oil sands producers in Alberta, giving them access to markets in Asia and the U.S. West Coast.

Constrained for years due to insufficient egress, Canada’s oil now has nearly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of additional market access. The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline is tripling the capacity of the original pipeline to 890,000 bpd from 300,000 bpd to carry crude from Alberta’s oil sands to British Columbia on the Pacific Coast.

And producers are taking advantage of this. They began ramping up production at the end of last year in anticipation of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) start in the first half of this year. Canadian oil firms now get more bang for their buck as the discount of Western Canada Select (WCS), the benchmark for Canadian heavy crude sold at Hardisty in Alberta, has narrowed relative to the U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in recent weeks.

Moreover, the production increases in the oil sands are the result of the expansion of operational projects with existing infrastructure, so the capital expenditure – which is very high for this type of crude extraction – has been lower than for building projects from scratch.

The rise in Canada’s oil sands output, mostly thanks to the Trans Mountain Expansion, is making the country one of the top non-OPEC+ contributors to growing global supply this year, alongside the United States, Guyana, and Brazil.

Some analysts even forecast that Canada could be the single largest source of oil supply growth, ahead of the U.S. or Guyana.  

“Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Canada could be the largest source of increased oil supply across the globe in 2024,” Marc Ercolao, economist at TD Economics, wrote in a report earlier this year.

This year, output growth in Canada could be 300,000 bpd –500,000 bpd, “putting the nation in the running to be the largest source of global oil supply growth,” Ercolao said.

bal oil supply growth estimates vary based on differing projections from forecasters and agencies, but Canadian oil could account for 25–67% of incremental supply in 2024, the economist noted.

“Canada should be able to capitalize on higher prices paid for our oil as well as the forthcoming ability to get Western oil reaching international markets,” Ercolao added.  

Increased Egress, Higher Prices

TMX is set to boost the price of Canada’s heavy crude oil for years to come, top executives at the major energy firms say.

In 2023, WCS was valued at an average of US$17.90 per barrel less than WTI. Early in 2024, that discount had widened to about US$18.50 per barrel before narrowing to less than US$13 per barrel in early April 2024, just before TMX entered in service, data from Canada Energy Regulator (CER) showed.

Crude oil production has been growing in western Canada, with Alberta hitting record-high production of 4.53 million bpd in December 2023. TMX is set to increase total western Canadian crude oil export pipeline capacity by 13%, helping to relieve capacity constraints on export pipelines, the regulator noted last month.

Overall, the capacity of the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline will represent 17% of the total pipeline export capacity available to Canadian crude oil shippers, CER said.

While the biggest Canadian oil producers reported a mixed bag of Q1 earnings this spring, all of them expect TMX to boost Canada’s oil prices and to be a major asset for the industry for years to come.

Drew Zieglgansberger, Executive Vice-President and Chief Commercial Officer at Cenovus Energy, said, “We’re pretty excited on behalf of the industry and Canada to have another great asset available to us.”

Oil Sands Firms Outperform U.S. Shale Producers

Investors have welcomed the renewed optimism in the industry and the higher returns to shareholders Canadian producers have started to offer.

The four largest oil sands producers in Canada have seen their stocks gain 37% in the past 12 months, while the index of the biggest U.S. oil and gas firms has trailed this average gain by 19 percentage points, according to data compiled by The Wall Street Journal

While oil-sands projects are more capital-intensive and need years to start-up, they can pump crude for years and decades, unlike the shale formations in the U.S.

“Oil sands are costly to produce, but there’s no shortage of the resource,” Wells Fargo equity analyst Roger Read told the Journal.

Things are looking up for Canadian producers, at least in the near to medium term. And Firms have started to reward shareholders.

Canadian Natural Resources, for example, said in its Q1 earnings release last month that “Commencing in 2024, we are returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders, as per our free cash flow allocation policy, and continue to manage the allocation on a forward-looking annual basis.”  

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2024 - 17:00
https://ift.tt/F053shc
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/F053shc
via IFTTT

Canada, The Unexpected Winner In The Global Oil Boom SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

Biden Post Has Many Americans Asking "Why Are You Campaigning For Trump?"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Biden campaign published a post Wednesday that left many wondering why they were trying to make Donald Trump more popular with voters.

The post shared on X outlined “Trump’s Project 2025,” which many just found extremely appealing.

What’s the bad thing?

Wow, they’re really selling Trump hard:

Most believe it’ll be disappointing if Trump doesn’t deliver these things.

Some were undecided but now they’re in:

It’s an odd strategy on Biden’s part:

While the Biden campaign is intent on pushing the narrative that Trump is a ‘threat to Democracy’, the latest polling shoes that voters in swing states trust Trump on the issue more than Biden.

The Hill notes that “Among all swing state voters, 44 percent said they trust the presumptive GOP nominee more to protect democracy, while 33 percent said the incumbent. About 16 percent said they trusted neither, and 7 percent said they trusted both equally, per the poll.”

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/27/2024 - 16:20
https://ift.tt/k29D7Y3
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/k29D7Y3
via IFTTT

Biden Post Has Many Americans Asking "Why Are You Campaigning For Trump?" SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

Dramatic Scenes Of Military-Led Coup In Progress In Bolivia

There are emerging reports of a military coup going down in Bolivia on Wednesday, with embattled President Luis Arce denouncing the "irregular mobilization" of some units of the national army.

He has accused the country's top general, Gen. Juan Jose Zuniga,of plotting a coup, and warned "You need to respect democracy."

According to Reuters, "Heavily armed soldiers and armored vehicles were seen gathering in the capital's Plaza Murillo, according to videos shared on social media."

"Former President Evo Morales, who has publicly split with Arce even though both belong to same socialist movement, announced a national mobilization of his supporters to support democracy in a separate post on X," the report continues.

There are widespread reports that armored vehicles are destroying the door of the Presidential Palace, and that armed troops are breaking in.

Bolivia state TV is airing the following dramatic footage...

Amid road blockages and works stoppages across the capital, each side is urging their forces and supporters to urgently assist

Presidential Minister María Nela Prada said military and tanks were taking over Plaza Murillo in La Paz, calling it an “attempted coup d’état.” The people are “on alert to defend democracy,” she said to local television station Red Uno.

The general commander of the army, Juan José Zúñiga, present in the same square, confirmed that there was a movement of uniformed officers, and said: “We are upset by the affront, enough is enough.”

Currently protesters supporting Arce are filling up some of the streets leading to the square while chanting pro-Arce slogans and on their way to confront the mutiny.

The following widely circulating and astounding photograph shows President Arce meeting the leader of the attempted military coup face-to-face at the doors of the Presidential Palace:

developing...

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/26/2024 - 16:40
https://ift.tt/1ex4gz5
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/1ex4gz5
via IFTTT

Dramatic Scenes Of Military-Led Coup In Progress In Bolivia SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

Yen-sanity Blows As Jensenity Slows: Bonds & Bullion Dumped As Big-Tech (Ex-NVDA) Jumps

Today's market was brought you by the number 160 (yen per dollar) and the letters 'A' and 'I' as Japan's Kanda spoiled the party in the FX markets and NVDA's Huang failed to spark a panic back into AI stocks during today's shareholder meeting.

USDJPY broke above 160 for the first time since 1986 as Japan's currency chief failed to ignite enough fear with his comments about intervention...

Source: Bloomberg

NVDA failed to follow-through on yesterday's big rebound even as CEO Jensen Huang delivered a rousing vision of the future for the use of his company's products...

Source: Bloomberg

Well, everything went fucking vertical in the last few seconds of the day smashing NVDA into the green...

...and then Micron earnings hit after hours and NVDA tanked back into the red...

AI companies overall faded today, giving back much of yesterday's gains (but the selloff was more broad-based today)...

Source: Bloomberg

But while AI stocks were hit, MAG7 basket rallied, thanks in large part to AMZN...

Source: Bloomberg

...as AMZN hit a new record high, topping $2 trillion market cap for the first time...

Source: Bloomberg

Add to all that the fact that the US housing market appears to have literally imploded in May (according to today's new home sales data) and onemight have expected a more "bad news is good news" day... but instead, rate-cut expectations fell hawkishly...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, Small Caps were the day's biggest losers with the other US Majors clinging to either side of unchanged ahead of tonight's bank stress test results. The last few seconds of the day saw everything go vertical as NVDA spiked...

Goldman's trading desk noted that overall activity levels are down -5% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes flat vs the 10dma

  • Our floor tilts -1% better for sale,  driven by HFs

  • HFs lean -8% better for sale but short ratio back below 50%.  They are net for sale in every sector ex-REITs & Macro Products. Supply is heaviest in Tech where net supply is 3x larger than Energy, while the other sectors net supply is more modest.

  • LOs are +2% better to buy, buying Tech, Staples, Energy, Fins & Macro Products.  Supply is heaviest in HCare & Industrials.

Bonds were dumped though with the longer-end underperforming on the day (2Y +4bps, 30Y +7bps)..

Source: Bloomberg

...which steepened the yield curve dramatically, back up to pre-CPI levels...

Source: Bloomberg

The yen weakness sent the dollar index soaring higher, closing at its highest since Nov 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar strength made gold suffer, with spot prices back below $2300...

Source: Bloomberg

...and oil, which was also piled on from a big crude build. WTI bounced back off the early selling but was sold back down to close basically unchanged...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin faded back from $62,000 as headlines around US Govt moving its Mt.Gox holdings to Coinbase sparked some selling pressure (though it appears the market has already soaked in the potential supply from that, which built on yesterday's FUD-inspiring German govt move headlines)...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, ahead of the first debate tomorrow night, Goldman Sachs shows us this chart shows how institutional investors view November's outcome...Unified government is a major risk for bonds - Equities most sensitive to a Trump win...

Source: Goldman Sachs

Did today's bond selloff and usd gains signal some bets that Trump will come away from tomorrow's brawl for the better?

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/26/2024 - 16:00
https://ift.tt/mubiTUS
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/mubiTUS
via IFTTT

Yen-sanity Blows As Jensenity Slows: Bonds & Bullion Dumped As Big-Tech (Ex-NVDA) Jumps SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

The Logic In All The Madness: VDH

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Most Americans believe it is unhinged to deliberately destroy the border and allow 10 million illegal aliens to enter the country without background audits, means of support, any claims to legal residency, and definable skills.

And worse still, why would federal authorities be ordered to release repeat violent felons who have gone on to commit horrendous crimes against American citizens?

Equally perplexing to most Americans is borrowing $1 trillion every 90 days and paying 5-5.5% interest on the near $36 trillion in ballooning national debt.

Servicing that debt at current interest exceeds the size of the annual defense budget and may soon top $1 trillion in interest costs, or more than 13% of the budget.

Why would the United States suspend military aid to Israel as it tries to destroy the Hamas architects of the October 7 massacres? Why would it lift sanctions on a terrorist Iran? Why would it suppress Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack on the Jewish homeland? Why would it prevent Israel from stockpiling key munitions as it prepares to deal with the existential threats posed by Hezbollah?

Why would the Biden administration cancel key pipeline projects and put vast swaths of federal lands rich in oil and gas off limits to production, even as it further drains the strategic petroleum reserve? Why not pump rather than drain our own oil from strategic stockpiles?

Why would the Biden White House’s counsel’s office meet with Nathan Wade, the former paramour chief prosecutor in the Fani Willis Fulton County prosecution of Donald Trump? Why would the third-ranking prosecutor in the Biden Justice Department step down to lead Alvin Bragg’s Manhattan prosecution of Donald Trump? Why would the Biden Justice Department under Attorney General Merrick Garland select Jack Smith as a special prosecutor of Donald Trump—given his past failures as a special counsel and known political biases?

Nihilism only explains so much. A better explanation is that the Biden administration and its handlers knew that there was a good chance that most of their policies would prove unpopular and might even jeopardize Biden’s reelection.

But they also were confident the changes were of such magnitude that the United States would either become—in the infamous phrase of Barack Obama—“fundamentally transformed” or force the next Republican administration to adopt such tough medicine that it would prove untenable politically and the malady would still prove mostly impossible to undo.

After all, how would a Trump administration deal with 10 million illegal aliens who entered the US without audit or legality? Where are they? How would they be found and deported? How many court suits in blue-jurisdictions before blue judges would have to be overcome?

The country has become accultured to a nonexistent border.

And so, the left assumes, it would be expensive and difficult to finish the wall, to stop catch and release, to insist refugee status must be obtained before entry, and to deport what is likely now 20-30 million illegal aliens in toto.

In other words, the Biden administration may sigh, “Our work is done. Whatever you think about our illegal methods, we forever changed the idea of immigration and the demographics of the country.”

All presidents—Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden—have run deficits and vastly increased the debt since the Bill Clinton-Newt Gingrich compromises that resulted in a temporary period of balanced budgets.

But in the case of Biden, there was no need to keep up the multitrillion-dollar deficits, especially as interest rates on the national debt tripled and the service costs now approach $1 trillion per year.

Biden, after all, inherited a recovering economy, flush with post-COVID-19 lockdown stimulatory dollars, pent-up consumer demand, and ossified supply chains. And then he stupidly poured gasoline on the explosive mix by dousing the country with even more federal spending.

Now we have the worst of both worlds: high interest rates and nearly $36 trillion to service.

But in the leftist mind, it was worth it, given that left-wing constituencies received vast expansions of entitlements that will be hard to prune back. And unprecedentedly vast debt at levels like our current burden of 123% of annual GDP prove unsustainable.

And the historic correctives are brutal:

1) major cuts in entitlements and redistributive spending programs;

2) tax hikes at a time when state, local, federal, and gas, sales, and property taxes—and other “fees”—already take over half the income of most middle-class Americans;

3) hyper-inflation to pay back what is owed with cheap funny money, with the added leftist fillip that those who have dollars lose wealth and those who don’t gain greater access to them;

4) renunciation of debt. We already saw in the Obama era that liberal bureaucrats and courts often reversed the orders of creditors in bankruptcy hearings.When debt becomes unsustainable, historically arise cries of “Why should the poor suffer more when the rich already have enough money and don’t really need to be paid back?”;

and 5) efforts to “confiscate” private wealth by giving, in exchange, government “credits.” For example, there have already been floated ideas that 401Ks could be absorbed into the insolvent Social Security system for credit in government benefits.

Most Americans poll strong support for Israel. They oppose the Biden effort to triangulate by revisiting the old Obama nihilist agendas of emboldening the Iranian/Hezbollah/Hamas/Houthis axis to play off against our traditional allies of Israel and the more moderate Arab regimes.

By failing to prosecute nine months of domestic violence committed by pro-Hamas lawbreakers, by allowing leftist campuses to normalize anti-Semitism and pro-terrorist advocacy, and by destroying the once close alliance of Israel and the United States, the left feels it will be almost impossible to go back to the pre-Obama/Biden years. Their legacy, they hope, is a mendicant Israel utterly dependent on U.S. largess—a condition itself predicated on essentially destroying the idea of a secure Jewish state within its present borders.

The Biden administration sought to curb oil and gas production—save for brief periods before the midterm and reelection campaigns, when it drained the strategic petroleum reserve. The point was to acculturate the public to high gasoline prices, to make inefficient solar/wind/EVs projects competitive against artificially costly fossil fuels, and to institutionalize policies that will make it difficult to reopen closed fields, to reboot federal oilfield leasing, and to dismantle costly subsidies for inefficient green fuels.

That Americans paid hundreds of billions of dollars more for their fuels under Biden, that the auto industry is stuck with vast inventories of money-losing electric vehicles that the public does not want, and that the entire economy has been shackled by counterproductive green mandates were considered worth the cost of alienating the public.

The left knows that neither Alvin Bragg, E. Jean Carroll, Letitia James, Jack Smith, nor Fani Willis would have gone to court against Donald Trump if he was either a leftist or had bowed out of the 2024 presidential race.

They know no one has been tried on such pseudo-charges, and no one will again be so charged after Trump. And they accept that no republic can long survive if the opposition party seeks to remove the names of its political opponents from the ballot.

But they also know that the left has now established a valuable precedent: oppose woke progressivism, and one will either become bankrupted by indictments or land before a blue-city jury eager to nullify evidence to ensure the accused is jailed and broke.

So the left believes that its new lawfare was well worth the destruction of the entire tradition of equality under the law:

1) Donald Trump has lost a half-billion dollars in fines and legal fees;

2) a court-bound Donald Trump was robbed of weeks of valuable campaign time;

3) Donald Trump can be forever now libeled as a “convicted felon”;

and 4) the left has played chicken with the American Constitution and believes it has won, given conservatives would never enter into a destructive cycle of tit-for-tat.

The Biden years did the country great damage and rendered Biden himself one of the most unpopular incumbent presidents in American history.

But his agendas may have fundamentally changed the country for decades, if not longer—and will require tough remedies that may be almost as unpopular as the wreckage they wrought.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/25/2024 - 17:00
https://ift.tt/sa4Ok7G
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/sa4Ok7G
via IFTTT

The Logic In All The Madness: VDH SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

MAG7 Melts-Up Amid Macro Malaise; Bonds Slop, Bitcoin Pops, Black Gold Drops

A mixed day on the macro side, but that never stopped the melt-up in mega-cap tech...

Philly Fed Services jumped into expansion (to two year highs?), Chicago Fed National Activity Index surged, Case-Shiller home prices hit a new record high but appreciation slowed, Conference Board Expectations hovers near decade lows, Richmond Fed Manufacturing tumbled, Dallas Fed Services improved but remains in contraction...

But, overall, both 'hard' (21-month lows) and 'soft' data ended lower on the day...

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds didn't care less - ending the day basically unchanged - but all now lower on the week (with the long-end outperforming)...

Source: Bloomberg

But stocks (well some of them) loved it... as the mega-cap tech names lifted Nasdaq to be the big outperformer. The Dow and Small Caps ended red on the day while the S&P managed gains...

After 3 straight days of outperformance, the equal-weighted S&P lagged the cap-weighted index today as the big names dominated once again...

Source: Bloomberg

AI-exposed stocks recovered back to AI-at-Risks on the week today...

Source: Bloomberg

...as NVDA ripped back after an 18% decline...

...lifting MAG7 stocks to Friday's highs...

Source: Bloomberg

Tech outperformed and Energy was unchanged while all other sectors were red...

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman's trading desk noted that overall activity levels are flat vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes down -14% vs the 10dma

  • Our floor tilts -4% better for sale,  exclusively driven by LOs

  • LOs are -27% better for sale with Tech supply once again a standout, ranking in the 93rd %-ile.  Other pockets of supply include Comms Svcs, HCare, Cons Disc & Indust.  Demand is modest across Fins & REITs

  • HFs are basically paired buy vs. sell.  Short ratio ticking up to 53%.  We are seeing demand for Mats, Fins, Utes and Tech with most of the supply concentrated in Macro Products, while Energy, REITs and Cons Disc also tilt slightly for sale

The dollar bounced back to last Wednesday's highs...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was bid aggressively despite some German govt moving bitcoin headlines. BTC bounced off $59k (close-ish to its 200DMA) back up to pre-Mt.Gox headline levels...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold traded back down to Friday's lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil traded back into its own range of the last week...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, some context, the US Macro Surprise Index is at its weakest since March 2019...

Source: Bloomberg

That looks more like a crash-landing than a 'soft' landing... but we know that's not true because The Fed keeps telling us how well the economy is doing and the Biden admin keeps reminding Americans how lucky they are to have his economic policies...

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/25/2024 - 16:00
https://ift.tt/OHsL8ml
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/OHsL8ml
via IFTTT

MAG7 Melts-Up Amid Macro Malaise; Bonds Slop, Bitcoin Pops, Black Gold Drops SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

Goldman Explains Why A Trump Victory Will Pop The AI/Tech Bubble

With the November elections less than five months ago, the market has been amazingly complacent and oblivious about the potential shock that, frankly, either presidency would unleash. But that's about to change.

As Goldman trader John Flood warns in a weekend note, the results of the upcoming US presidential election could have a substantial impact on the USD and the relative performance of domestic-facing vs. internationally-exposed firms. The first presidential debate is scheduled for this Thursday, June 27th.

Meanwhile, online prediction markets imply slightly higher odds of a Trump presidency than a Biden presidency, with the probability of a Republication sweep (42%) almost twice the odds of a Democratic sweep (22%)...

And as attention finally starts to turn to the outcome of the elections, Goldman economists expect the dollar to strengthen under a Republican White House victory regardless of whether there is a sweep or divided government. That's because as discussed earlier, Trump has floated several potential tariff policies, including a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports along with a 60% tariff on imports from China, all of which would spark a sharp increase in inflation. And, as Goldman notes, "tariff increases appear likely in the event of a Trump victory and would likely strengthen the USD." The bank goes on to caution that tariffs would create a headwind to the performance of stocks with high international revenue exposure due to the risk of retaliatory tariffs as well as heightened geopolitical tensions. It may come as a shock to some that the all too bubbly Tech has the highest international sales exposures with a whopping 59% of total revenues (and 17% is purely EM), while the far less bubbly Cyclicals are in second place.

In addition to companies with elevated international revenues, companies that are dependent on international suppliers would also face headwinds from tariffs. Goldman screened S&P 1500 goods companies into groups of stocks with the largest exposure to suppliers from the US, suppliers outside the US, and suppliers in Greater China specifically. Once again, the median Tech Hardware stock has the greatest exposure to suppliers from Greater China while the median Broadline Retail stock has the greatest exposure to domestic suppliers.

Goldman shows that an equal-weighted portfolio of stocks most exposed to suppliers from Greater China (excluding Tech) has lagged a similarly-constructed portfolio of stocks most exposed to suppliers from the U.S. by 18% since last fall. The relative performance of these two groups has generally moved with prediction market odds of a Trump presidency...

Of course, if one also adds tech names to this portfolio of stocks exposed to China suppliers, one gets an exponential meltup... which is why anyone looking for the pin that pops the mega tech/AI bubble, look no further than Trump's victory on November 5.

More in the full Goldman note available in the usual place to professional subs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2024 - 11:05
https://ift.tt/VfRx5yw
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/VfRx5yw
via IFTTT

Goldman Explains Why A Trump Victory Will Pop The AI/Tech Bubble SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
| 0 comments ]

A Minnesota Dam Is In "Imminent Failure Condition" 

A century-old concrete gravity dam on the Blue Earth River in Rapidan Township, near Rapidan, Minnesota, is in "imminent failure condition." This has sparked concern about America's aging infrastructure. 

"We do not know if it will totally fail or if it will remain in place, however we determined it was necessary to issue this notification to advise downstream residents and the correct regulatory agencies and other local agencies," Blue Earth County Sheriff's Office wrote on Facebook

For days, the sheriff's office has been monitoring debris build-up at the 114-year-old Rapidan Dam, located about ten miles southwest of Mankato. This puts the dam "in imminent failure condition." Heavy rains in recent days have raised river water levels. 

"The river has significantly cut around the west side of the dam," Blue Earth County Sheriff's Office said. Also, an Xcel Energy substation at the dam has washed away. 

"The river level was already high from the large amounts of recent rainfall and moving fast when it diverted around the dam near the substation and flowed onto the bank," Xcel said in a statement, which NBC News quoted.

A 2021 assessment determined that the dam needed costly repairs or complete replacement. The county's website, however, warns that doing nothing "would pose a public safety concern and a tremendous liability."

The National Weather Service reported that the failure is expected to cause the Minnesota River at Mankato to crest just below major flood level early Tuesday.

This is yet more evidence of America's crumbling infrastructure and the inability of the government to allocate taxpayers' monies efficiently while political elites in Washington bankrupt the nation with endless foreign wars.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/24/2024 - 16:40
https://ift.tt/BzCQO2e
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/BzCQO2e
via IFTTT

A Minnesota Dam Is In "Imminent Failure Condition"  SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend