UBS Discusses Next Maritime Chokepoint Investors Should Watch

A lot of attention has centered on the Strait of Hormuz since the waterway was effectively shut not only by the IRGC drone threat, but mostly because maritime insurers are withdrawing war-risk coverage across the region. Our focus now shifts to the other critical maritime chokepoints. If Washington can pressure Iranian oil flows and, by extension, curb China's cheap Gulf crude flows, then the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea also emerge as potential flashpoints that traders can no longer afford to ignore.

For more color on which critical maritime chokepoints and geopolitical flashpoints investors should watch next, Bilahari Kausikan, former Permanent Secretary of Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spoke with UBS's Aditi Samajpati at the 14th UBS OneASEAN Summit in Singapore to discuss the issue earlier on Thursday.

Kausikan told Samajpati that China claims about 80% of the South China Sea, but other surrounding countries reject those claims, and none of the disputes are likely to be resolved in the near term. He described the situation in the highly disputed waterway as a "strategic stalemate," not an immediate crisis, because China is unlikely to openly block trade or challenge freedom of navigation if doing so risks war with the U.S.

"Obviously, the South China Sea is another point of vulnerability. There are multiple disputes, and China claims about 80% of the South China Sea, which is not accepted by the surrounding states," he said.

"But I think overall the situation in the South China Sea - by the way, none of these disputes are going to be resolved - but I think overall it is not ideal, but not dire," Kausikan said.

He continued, "It's a strategic stalemate. On the other hand, the Chinese cannot stop the US and other powers from operating in the South China Sea, without risking war."

Kausikan pointed out that the presence of the U.S. Navy should be viewed as a stabilizing force that preserves trade flows and prevents China from turning its claims into uncontested control.

Regarding U.S. pressure on Venezuela and Iran, Kausikan said it is unclear whether Washington's goal is specifically to squeeze China's crude imports, but it could have that effect, since both countries are critical, cheap crude suppliers to China.

At the same time, he said Trump's willingness to provide naval escort to commercial traffic through Hormuz suggests the U.S. is not trying to completely choke off China, but rather to create leverage.

For Asia as a whole, Kausikan said energy stability should be a major issue across the region. He said ASEAN's best path toward greater strategic autonomy is deeper energy integration, especially through a shared regional grid that could combine nuclear, hydro, and other power sources.

To sum up, China and the rest of Asia received a giant wake-up call this week as cheap crude and LNG flows from the Gulf were curtailed. All of this is happening ahead of President Trump's trip to China later this month.

We think readers should keep a close eye on other maritime chokepoints worldwide.

Spillover risks from the Middle East conflict are building. The question now is: where is the next powder keg to go off? 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 15:31
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UBS Discusses Next Maritime Chokepoint Investors Should Watch

Trump's Venezuela Oil Plan Runs Into Hard Reality

Authored by Andrew Topf via oilprice.com,

Last week US President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela’s interim authorities will turn over up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, before later declaring his administration will control Venezuela's oil sales “indefinitely”.

Decrying the state of Venezuela’s oil sector, including that the South American country now pumps a fraction of what it used to, Trump said, “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”

While that sounds like a great opportunity for the US oil majors, it’s one they may want to refuse. Why? Because the oil underneath Venezuela, which has the largest crude reserves in the world, greater even than Saudi Arabia and Iran, is technically challenging to extract and costly.

Moreover, it’s uncertain whether there would a change in the way Venezuela and its oil industry are being run, which presents a huge political risk for companies to return and operate there.

Former President Hugo Chavez nationalized the oil industry in the 1990s, and in 2007, he forced Exxon and ConocoPhillips out, after the companies refused to accept new terms that would give the Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA, a majority share in their projects.

ConocoPhillips is still owed about $10 billion.

Only Chevron is currently authorized to operate in Venezuela and export crude to the United States.

“Until Caracas has a new government capable of gaining the confidence of international investors and banks, oil companies will be reluctant to make any major commitments,” states a recent Reuters piece.

When Trump met with oil executives last Friday, Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods said, “We’ve had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes.”

Trump has said the US government is prepared to provide security guarantees but not money for oil projects.

How much oil does Venezuela have?

A founding member of OPEC, Venezuela has more oil reserves than any OPEC member and top exporters in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

The country is estimated to hold 303 billion barrels in proven reserves, about 17% of the world’s total, and more than five times the United States’ 55 billion barrels.

Most is contained within the Orinoco Belt — a vast territory in eastern Venezuela stretching about 600 kilometers from east to west and 70 km from north to south, with an area of roughly 55,314 square kilometers.

The belt is divided into four exploration and production areas: Boyacá, Junín, Ayacucho and Carabobo.

Most Orinoco Belt operations are controlled by PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela, SA), which has faced challenges including aging infrastructure, underinvestment, mismanagement and the effects of sanctions.

Venezuela has thus been unable to fully exploit its vast reserves. While it once exported 3.5 million barrels a day, that has been reduced to about 1mbpd.

$100 billion investment required

According to Francisco Monaldi, the director of Latin American energy policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, returning Venezuela’s production to its 1970s peak would require an annual investment by US oil majors of $10 billion for the next decade, or $100 billion in total.

Just maintaining Venezuela’s oil production at current levels would cost $53 billion over the next 15 years, as per estimates from Rystad Energy, a consulting firm. Raising it above 1.4Mbpd would likely require another $120 billion between now and 2040.

Extraction challenges

Venezuela’s oil is extra-heavy crude, which means it is highly viscous and dense, making it harder and more expensive to extract than conventional crude. Aljazeera notes that Producing oil from this region requires advanced techniques, such as steam injection and blending with lighter crudes to make it marketable.

Because of its density and sulphur content, extra-heavy crude usually sells at a discount compared with lighter, sweeter crudes.

While US Gulf Coast refineries have been designed to handle heavy crude like Venezuela’s and Canada’s, the product’s economic viability at low oil prices is questionable.

Reuters states: Breakeven costs for key grades in the Orinoco belt already average more than $80 a barrel, according to estimates by consultancy Wood Mackenzie. That places Venezuelan oil at the higher end of the global cost scale for new production. By comparison, heavy oil produced in Canada has an average breakeven cost of around $55 a barrel.

That means at current oil prices of around $60 a barrel, Venezuelan oil is uneconomic.

There may also be a significant gap between potential and actual oil production. Consider: Proven reserves are defined as those with a 90% probability of recovery, based on the identified crude, and whether existing technology can extract it while remaining commercially viable.

Venezuela’s estimates are self-reported, meaning they could be exaggerated. Furthermore, according to another Reuters piece, OPEC declared Venezuela’s proven reserves the world’s largest in 2011, when oil was over $100 a barrel. But Orinoco oil is full of impurities like sulfur and nickel, making it expensive to produce and difficult to refine. “Price is therefore crucial to its viability.”

In fact, estimated reserves may remain theoretical unless prices spike, and a more realistic estimate of Venezuelan oil reserves is 60 billion barrels, according to Rystad Energy.

The bottom line? Oil prices need to rise at least $20 a barrel to make Venezuelan heavy oil economically extractable. Even if that is enough to entice US oil majors back there, they will need security guarantees from the US government so that their projects won’t be expropriated like they were in the past. How committed is the Trump administration to protecting the interests of its oil companies operating in a foreign country with a history of nationalization?

Political risk in Venezuela is off the charts right now, making foreign investment challenging to say the least. So don’t believe the Trump hype about American companies jumping in to revive the Venezuelan oil industry. As one commentator summed up the situation, “The world probably doesn’t need a lot more high-cost, dirty oil. The dream of a transformational deluge of Venezuelan crude will probably remain illusory.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 16:25
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Trump's Venezuela Oil Plan Runs Into Hard Reality

US Launched Kamikaze Drones Against Iran, Reflecting Lessons Learned From Ukraine

In the first 72 hours of Operation Epic Fury, U.S. forces conducted more than 1,700 strikes across Iran on high-value IRGC military assets and leadership. These strikes relied heavily on air-delivered munitions, including bombs, air-launched rockets, and missiles deployed from stealth fighter jets, stealth bombers, fourth-generation fighter jets and bombers, as well as guided-missile destroyers.

Notably, U.S. Central Command indicated the operation also marked the first combat use by the U.S. military of one-way kamikaze drones, a newly added capability likely shaped by lessons drawn from four years of high-intensity warfare in Eastern Europe.

Another picture of a Starlink mounted on a Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drone https://t.co/SDVp4gZjCK pic.twitter.com/LyxwcL5fso

— Robin (@xdNiBoR) December 4, 2025

"For the first time in history, it is using one-way attack drones in combat during Operation Epic Fury. These low-cost drones, modeled after Iran's Shahed drones, are now delivering American-made retribution," U.S. CENTCOM wrote on X.

CENTCOM's Task Force Scorpion Strike - for the first time in history - is using one-way attack drones in combat during Operation Epic Fury. These low-cost drones, modeled after Iran's Shahed drones, are now delivering American-made retribution. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/VYdjiECKDT

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) February 28, 2026

OISNT account on X OSINTdefender published footage of what appears to be one of the Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) US drones used in the operation that crash landed.

OSINTdefender noted, "Locals in Iraq appear to have recovered a crashed and almost entirely intact Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS), an American copy of the Iranian Shahed-136 Attack Drone, which is confirmed to have been used recently by Task Force Scorpion Strike during U.S. attacks on Iran as part of Operation Epic Fury."

Locals in Iraq appear to have recovered a crashed and almost entirely intact Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS), an American copy of the Iranian Shahed-136 Attack Drone, which is confirmed to have been used recently by Task Force Scorpion Strike during U.S. attacks on… pic.twitter.com/SEqO6627en

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 2, 2026

Strike Map

Related:

• Drone Strikes On Amazon Data Centers In Middle East Reveal Urgent Need To Defend AI

• Russian Guidance Chip With Western Parts Found In Iranian Drone That Hit UK Air Base In Cyprus

• World At War: Are There Drone Spillover Threats In Caribbean

• AI 'Kill Chains' And Rise Of Skynet-Like Weapons Offer Glimpse Of 2030s Battlefield

Whether in Iran or Eastern Europe, the rapid proliferation of low-cost kamikaze drones has permanently altered the battlefield. Four years of war in Ukraine have made it clear to military planners and weapons manufacturers worldwide that these inexpensive, mass-produced drones are no longer optional, but are increasingly pivotal in changing the economics of war.

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US Launched Kamikaze Drones Against Iran, Reflecting Lessons Learned From Ukraine

Only The 38th Largest Oil Spike Since 1990

Today’s CoTD from DB's Jim Reid shows the daily price of oil back to 1990. When he published the report, oil (+8.4%) was tracking to be the 38th biggest daily gain over this 36-year period. The graph annotates the clusters where we have seen larger moves.

So even though it’s a big move, to get into the top 20, 10 and 5 it would need to be up +9.6%, +13.6% and +13.9% respectively.

There were huge moves around the GFC and Covid-19 turmoil, whilst the Gulf War in 1990-91 also saw several double-digit gains.

Incidentally, since Jim published his chart of the day, oil has sold off more, and at last check it was up just 5.7% on the day, erasing its kneejerk spike by more than half.

Going forward, Reid says that much will depend on the Strait of Hormuz.

It seems it’s not officially closed but passage through it would be hazardous at the moment with self-imposed restrictions from virtually all that normally travel through it.

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Only The 38th Largest Oil Spike Since 1990

Beyond Phishing: The New 'Deepfake' And QR Code Credit Card Scams Of 2026

Authored by Adam H. Douglas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The newest credit card scam warning signs look different from old-school phishing emails. In 2026, face-tampered QR codes (“quishing”) in public places are a growing trend. Or an urgent phone call from what sounds exactly like your bank, but is actually an AI-generated voice clone.

Man holds credit card upside down for shutterstock pic

Some important scam warning signs are:

• QR codes placed on stickers or layered over original signs
• Payment links that redirect you to unfamiliar web addresses
• Calls demanding immediate action to “prevent account suspension”
• Requests for one-time passcodes or full card numbers over the phone
• Pressure to act before you can independently verify the request

One of the best pieces of advice is: If something feels urgent, slow down and verify through official channels. You may think you’re too tech-savvy to fall for a scam. That confidence is exactly what modern fraud tactics target.

Traditional phishing emails, full of easy-to-spot spelling errors, are giving way to more sophisticated threats. Today’s scams rely on artificial intelligence, realistic voice cloning, and everyday tools like QR codes that often feel legitimate, personal, and time-sensitive.

Here’s what you need to know to avoid the newest credit card scams.

The Rise of ‘Quishing’: QR Code Credit Card Scams

QR codes spread rapidly during the pandemic. Today, they’re commonly found in restaurants, parking meters, and even utility bills. Scammers, not surprisingly, have caught on.

“Quishing” refers to phishing done through QR codes. Instead of clicking a suspicious link in an email, you scan a code in the real world.

Common Quishing Scenarios

• A parking meter with a QR code sticker placed over the original code
• A restaurant table tent that redirects to a fake payment portal
• A public event sign offering “fast checkout” through a QR link
• A mailed flyer with a QR code for “account verification”

Once scanned, you may land on a cloned website that looks nearly identical to your bank or payment processor.

Credit Card Scam Warning Signs With QR Codes

Look for:

• Stickers placed on top of printed codes
• Codes that appear misaligned, bubbled, or recently added
• Web addresses that don’t match the official company domain
• Requests for full card numbers, CVV codes, or Social Security numbers
• Payment pages that lack a secure “https” connection

Important: If you’re asked to enter sensitive financial data after scanning a public code, pause. When possible, manually type the official website into your browser instead.

AI Voice Clones: When Your ‘Bank’ Calls You

Voice cloning is a rapidly improving technology, with scammers now able to replicate a bank representative’s tone, accent, and cadence. Some can even mimic someone you know personally.

You might receive a call saying: “We’ve detected suspicious charges on your credit card. To prevent account suspension, we need to verify your information immediately.”

The caller ID may even show your bank’s name because scammers can spoof phone numbers.

Red Flags of a Deepfake Bank Call

• Urgent threats of account closure or frozen funds
• Requests for your full card number or online banking password
• Pressure to share a one-time passcode sent to your phone
• Instructions to move money “temporarily” for security reasons
• Refusal to let you hang up and call back independently

Legitimate banks will not ask for your password or full card number over the phone. If you receive a suspicious call, hang up and dial the number printed on the back of your card.

Urgency Is the Common Thread

Whether it’s a QR code or a voice clone, modern scams rely on emotion.

Scammers use:

• Fear (“Your account will be closed.”)
• Scarcity (“This must be resolved in 10 minutes.”)
• Authority (“I’m calling from the fraud department.”)
• Familiarity (“We spoke last week about your card.”)

The goal is to bypass your rational thinking.

The most important defense? Slow down. Fraud loses power when you verify.

What to Do If You Suspect Credit Card Fraud

If you think you scanned a malicious QR code or spoke with a scammer, act quickly:

• Call the number on the back of your card.
• Lock or freeze the card through your banking app.
• Review recent transactions for unauthorized charges.
• Dispute any suspicious charges immediately.
• Change your online banking password.
• Place a fraud alert via one of the three major credit bureaus.
• Monitor your credit reports for new accounts.

Under the Fair Credit Billing Act (or FCBA), your liability for unauthorized credit card charges is limited, especially if you report them promptly. Many issuers offer zero liability policies, but timing matters.

A Modern Prevention Checklist

To protect yourself from evolving scams:

• Enable real-time transaction alerts.
• Use your bank’s official app instead of scanning public codes.
• Avoid entering card details after scanning QR codes in public.
• Never share one-time passcodes with callers.
• Let unknown calls go to voicemail.
• Keep your phone and banking apps updated.

Technology improves, but so does all types of deepfake fraud. Staying informed is your advantage.

Frequently Asked Questions: Credit Card Scam Warning Signs

How Can I Tell If a Phone Call From My Bank Is Fake?

A legitimate bank won’t ask for your full password, personal identification number (PIN), or one-time passcodes over the phone. If a caller pressures you to act immediately, threatens account suspension, or refuses to let you hang up and call back, treat it as suspicious. Caller ID can be spoofed, so don’t rely on the displayed number. The safest approach is to hang up and dial the number printed on the back of your credit card. Your bank will confirm if the call was real.

Are QR Codes Safe to Scan for Payments?

QR codes themselves are not inherently unsafe, but public codes can be replaced or tampered with. Scammers may place stickers over legitimate codes or redirect you to cloned websites designed to steal card details. Before entering payment information, confirm that the web address matches the official company domain and uses a secure connection. When possible, navigate directly to the company’s website or use its official mobile app instead of scanning a public code.

What Should I Do If I Gave My Credit Card Number to a Scammer?

Immediately call your card issuer using the number on the back of your card. Ask to freeze or cancel the card and request a replacement. Review recent transactions and dispute any unauthorized charges. Change your online banking passwords and enable transaction alerts. Consider placing a fraud alert with a credit bureau to monitor for identity theft. Acting quickly limits financial damage and protects your credit score from long-term harm.

Can Scammers Really Clone a Bank Employee’s Voice?

Yes. AI voice-cloning technology can replicate speech patterns using short audio samples. Combined with caller ID spoofing, scammers can create convincing impersonations of bank representatives or even people you know. However, cloned voices cannot bypass secure verification steps without your participation. Never share passwords, PINs, or one-time passcodes. If in doubt, hang up and call your bank directly to confirm whether the request is legitimate.

Modern scams no longer look sloppy. They look polished, personal, and urgent. Your best defense isn’t technical expertise. It’s skepticism, verification, and a refusal to rush.

The Epoch Times copyright © 2026. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/01/2026 - 17:50
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Beyond Phishing: The New 'Deepfake' And QR Code Credit Card Scams Of 2026

DOJ Charges 30 More People For Minnesota Church Invasion

Via Headline USA,

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced charges Friday against 30 more people who are accused of civil rights violations in a January protest inside a Minnesota church where a pastor works for Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Bondi said on social media that 25 people were in custody and more arrests would follow.

The new indictment comes a month after independent journalists Don Lemon and Georgia Fort and prominent local activist Nekima Levy Armstrong were charged for their alleged roles in the protest at Cities Church in St. Paul, Minnesota.

“YOU CANNOT ATTACK A HOUSE OF WORSHIP. If you do so, you cannot hide from us — we will find you, arrest you, and prosecute you,” Bondi wrote in the post.

“This Department of Justice STANDS for Christians and all Americans of faith.”

In total, 39 people now face charges of conspiracy against religious freedom and interfering with the right of religious freedom.

The new defendants will have an initial court appearance and a magistrate judge will set conditions for their likely release. Lemon and Fort said they were at the church as journalists covering news. Levy Armstrong was the subject of a doctored photo posted by the White House showing her crying during her arrest. The three have pleaded not guilty.

Protesters descended on Cities Church on Jan. 18 after learning that one of the church’s pastors also serves as an ICE official. The protest drew swift condemnation from Trump administration officials and conservative leaders for disrupting a Sunday service.

The indictment says the “agitators” entered the church in a “coordinated takeover-style attack” and engaged in acts of intimidation and obstruction.

“Young children were left to wonder, as one child put it, if their parents were going to die,” the indictment says.

A lawyer for the church praised the Justice Department for charging more people.

“The First Amendment does not give anyone — regardless of profession, prominence, or politics — license to storm a church and intimidate, threaten, and terrorize families and children worshipping inside,” Doug Wardlow said in a statement.

The revised indictment adds new allegations when compared to the original filed in January.

It says two people “conducted reconnaissance” outside the church a day before the protest and recorded their visit on video, with one saying, “My thoughts are to be able to close up this whole alleyway right here.”

The court filing quotes one protester as chanting in the church, “This ain’t God’s house. This is the house of the devil.”

Separately, a woman who was at the church service has filed a lawsuit against some people who were charged, alleging emotional trauma and an inability to exercise her religion that day.

The protest came at a tense time in Minnesota, where the Trump administration sent thousands of federal officers for Operation Metro Surge after a series of public fraud cases where the majority of defendants had Somali roots. Officers frequently deployed tear gas for crowd control in neighborhood clashes with residents, often detaining them along with immigrants.

On Jan. 7, a federal officer fatally shot Renee Good, 37, in Minneapolis. In another fatal shooting a week after the church protest, a federal officer killed 37-year-old nurse Alex Pretti.

Nationwide demonstrations erupted in response, followed by a change in Operation Metro Surge’s leadership and the eventual wind-down of the immigration enforcement operation. Roughly 400 ICE officers and Homeland Security agents were expected to remain in Minneapolis by early March, down from roughly 3,000 at the peak, according to a court filing.

Since then, the Twin Cities have grappled with the impact to communities and the local economy. The city of Minneapolis said it suffered an impact of $203.1 million due to the operation, with tens of thousands of residents in need of urgent relief assistance.

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DOJ Charges 30 More People For Minnesota Church Invasion

"Tone Down My Opinions": Police Visit Maryland Man Over Facebook Rage Posts About Soaring Power Bill

A Baltimore County, Maryland resident in a Facebook group called "BGE Victims," which has 22,000 Marylanders venting about the power bill crisis, revealed earlier this week that a Baltimore County Police detective "paid [him] a visit" over posts in the online group that allegedly threatened "the parasites of BGE and the grid owners/operators."

Baltimore resident Vin Shrader - or at least that's his online name  - said, "A detective from the Balto. Co. P.D. just paid me a visit about some of my post claiming I've been threatening the parasites of bge and the grid owners / operators," adding, "He strongly suggested that I tone down my opinons."

Shrader continued, "BULLSHIT, Now I can expect the swat team to come and get me for using my 1st admenment rights. It's now obvious the parasite democratic policticans along with bge are going to have local law enforcement do their bidding to shut us / me up. BULLSHIT, not going to happen. I have to be a martor, so be it. There's only one way I'm going down."

The Maryland power bill crisis first came to our attention in August 2024, when years of poor power-grid management by Democrats (mostly due to backfiring 'green' policies) in the state collided with surging electricity demand from AI data centers (read here).

Fast forward to today: the power bill crisis in the one-party rule state of Democratic Party kings and queens, headed by leftist Gov. Wes Moore, who has presidential ambitions, is getting hammered in the polling numbers (new data from Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media) as struggling Marylanders are financially crushed by mounting power-bill debt and venting their frustration in the group of 22,000.

All along, it was inevitable that the power bill crisis in the Mid-Atlantic would become a "major political issue" and that it was only a matter of time before the people revolted against local politicians who've been wearing green blinders for a decade, if not longer.

We don't want to be the bearer of bad news for residents in the region, but the epic grid mismanagement by Democrats, now colliding with the era of data centers, almost certainly means this crisis is not going away anytime soon and will likely become one of the most pressing issues in Mid-Atlantic states like Maryland.

FYI to the 22,000 members of the group: It seems as if "Big Brother" is watching...

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"Tone Down My Opinions": Police Visit Maryland Man Over Facebook Rage Posts About Soaring Power Bill

US Again Demands Iraq End Maliki Nomination, Or Else

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Iraq's Coordination Framework is still putting forward Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister, despite President Trump loudly and repeatedly demand he be withdrawn. The US had reportedly set a deadline of Friday, February 27, to end the candidacy or face unspecified repercussions. What happens next, after the US has attacked Tehran, is anyone's guess.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because the US had similarly set a "final deadline" for Maliki’s withdrawal last weekend, though that deadline passed with little visible consequence and just more US complaining about Maliki.

Prime Minister of Iraq, Nuri al-Maliki. Image: USAF/Public Domain

With just 24 hours left, the latest deadline doesn’t seem like it’s going to change anything either, with the Framework saying they don’t intend to allow the US to decide who gets to be Iraq’s prime minister.

Furthermore, the indication is that they don’t even intend to hold another meeting on the premiership until next week, well after this deadline will have already passed.

There does not appear to be any other serious candidate being put forward by any part of the Framework, which is the largest bloc in Iraq’s deeply divided parliament.

Maliki served as Prime Minister of Iraq from 2006 through 2014. President Trump has insisted he has “insane policies and ideologies” and cannot be allowed to return to office, though again there are no other serious candidates within the Framework who have come forward to replace him with.

Maliki has sought to return to office for years and though his State of Law Party only won about 6% of the seats in last year’s election, he has the support of Kurdish factions, and the largest party within the Framework, that of current Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani, has appeared to accept Maliki’s candidacy after Sudani said he doesn’t intend to serve another term.

It’s a recurring theme in Iraq that after their elections forming a coalition government takes quite some time and a lot of negotiation.

🚨 URGENT: US Envoy Tom Barrack delivers face-to-face ULTIMATUM to al-Maliki — WITHDRAW your PM bid by Monday & take the GOLDEN TICKET: safe EXIT + personal IMMUNITY deal!
Or face CRIPPLING sanctions!
Who blinks — Maliki, the Framework, or Washington? 🇮🇶⚔️🇺🇸🔥#Iraq #Iran #Trump pic.twitter.com/8h3RqoOG2u

— Iraqi OSINT (@IraqiOsint) February 27, 2026

Coming up with anyone even palatable to enough of the parties to form the government can be a challenge, and that’s why even if the blocs don’t want to anger the US, they’re unlikely to cast off a candidate that has any chance of forming a government without any clarity about an alternate choice.

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US Again Demands Iraq End Maliki Nomination, Or Else

DOE Announces $171 Million For Geothermal Expansion

The DOE released a Notice of Funding Opportunity offering up to $171.5 million for next-generation geothermal field tests and resource exploration. 

The program targets field-scale demonstrations of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) for electricity generation, along with drilling to characterize and confirm hydrothermal and next-gen prospects nationwide.

The funding splits into two initial open topics: up to $100 million for EGS field tests and $71.5 million for exploratory drilling. Letters of intent are due March 27, with full applications due April 30. The move directly supports President Trump’s Executive Order “Unleashing American Energy,” according to the agency.

Geothermal currently supplies roughly 4 GW of U.S. capacity, but represents only about 0.3% of total power generation. DOE estimates the resource base could support 300 GW or more by 2050 with technology improvements, delivering firm, 24/7 baseload power that complements intermittent renewables and meets rising demand from data centers and AI infrastructure.

Recent studies show that some of the best locations in the United States for new geothermal sites are in the western part of the country and some of the southern states. 

Assistant Secretary Kyle Haustveit of the Office of Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy stated the initiative will “directly support our commitments to advance energy addition, reduce energy costs for American families and businesses, and unleash American energy dominance and innovation.”

One of the only pure-play publicly traded geothermal companies is Ormat Technologies (ORA), which develops, owns, and operates geothermal power plants primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The company has recently expanded via long-term power purchase agreements with data-center operators (Google), underscoring commercial interest in reliable geothermal supply.

Some Democratic appropriators are pitching a fit, noting the $146.5 million tranche exceeds the $118 million Congress appropriated for geothermal in FY2025 and requesting further review. Proponents counter that successful pilots could unlock far larger private investment and help diversify the grid beyond wind, solar, and gas.

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DOE Announces $171 Million For Geothermal Expansion

Trump: "Maybe We'll Have A Friendly Takeover Of Cuba"

President Trump told reporters on Friday afternoon that the U.S. could pursue a "friendly takeover" of Cuba, a comment from the president that comes as his administration moves to secure the Western Hemisphere and intensifies pressure on the communist regime in Havana through a crude-oil blockade.

"The Cuban government is talking with us. They're in a big deal of trouble, as you know. They have no money, no anything right now, but they're talking with us, Trump told reporters on the White House lawn. "Maybe we'll have a friendly takeover of Cuba.

Trump repeated, "We could very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba."

He continued, "After many, many years, we have had a lot of years of dealing with Cuba. I've been hearing about Cuba since I was a little boy. But they're in big trouble. And something very well - and something positive could happen."

NEW: President Trump hints at a "friendly takeover" of Cuba:

"The Cuban government is talking with us. They’re in a big deal of trouble, as you know. They have no money, no anything right now."

"Maybe we’ll have a friendly takeover of Cuba. We could very well end up having a… pic.twitter.com/sWtLkVBgVm

— Fox News (@FoxNews) February 27, 2026

Earlier this week, the United Nations' top official for Cuba warned that daily life on the island was rapidly deteriorating, with massive strains on healthcare, water services, and food distribution.

There are reports that the Cuban government has between six and seven weeks of fuel left before a major power blackout, and what could only be described as a total economic collapse unfolds.

One of the most interesting stories this week was about a Florida-registered speedboat carrying 10 Cuban nationals residing in the U.S., which entered Cuban territorial waters armed with assault rifles, body armor, improvised explosive devices, camouflage uniforms, and telescopic sights, in what the government says was a "foiled armed infiltration" into the Caribbean island nation.

Cuba reported that its border guards killed four and wounded six on the speedboat and said the group was planning to "carry out an infiltration for terrorist purposes."

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio commented on the incident, saying, "What I'm telling you is we're going to find out exactly what happened and who was involved. We're not going to just take what somebody else tells us. I'm very confident we will be able to know the story independently."

Last week, in the Western Hemisphere, Mexican Army Special Forces' decapitation strike against the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) killed Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervant. This operation was aided by U.S. intelligence and shows ongoing dismantling of the Mexican cartel command and control networks appears to be gaining momentum.

By late week, the State Department issued a release stating that the U.S. government would offer $10 million for the capture of two alleged Sinaloa Cartel bosses in Tijuana: brothers Rene "La Rana" Arzate Garcia and Alfonso "Aquiles" Arzate Garcia.

Let's not forget that last month's high-stakes U.S. Delta Force raid to capture far-left Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was part of the Trump administration's broader effort to reshape the Western Hemisphere, moving it away from left-wing communist regimes and aligning it more closely with U.S. interests.

After years of socialism in South America, there’s now a right-wing wave.@joseantoniokast just won the Chilean election, turning Chile blue.

Next year, the right could win the elections in Colombia & Brazil, while socialism might fall in Venezuela due to other circumstances pic.twitter.com/0CRX1CTK6P

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 15, 2025

Related:

• Trump's Cuba Pressure Campaign Could Spark Cohiba Cigar Price Spikes

Latest on Polymaket...

Polymarket odds of a US invasion of Cuba this year spiked to nearly 20% after Trump's comments.  

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Trump: "Maybe We'll Have A Friendly Takeover Of Cuba"

Trump Advisers Want Israel To 'Attack Iran First' For Better Optics: Politico

Politico is out with a crazy story on Thursday, but which will make sense to those following the trajectory of US foreign policy over the past couple decades plus.

Senior US officials want Israel to strike Iran before Washington launches a renewed assault in order to build domestic backing for war. Advisers to President Donald Trump are "privately arguing that an Israeli attack would trigger Iran to retaliate, helping muster support from American voters for a U.S. strike," the outlet writes, citing two people familiar with the discussions.

"The calculus is a political one – that more Americans would stomach a war with Iran if the United States or an ally were attacked first," Politico continues.

The subtext here is that American troops would likely come under retaliation in whatever form such a serious escalation takes. Currently the US is drawing down troops from bases immediately in harm's way, including reportedly in Qatar and Bahrain.

"There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action," one person familiar with the discussions said.

The mood in Washington is said to be that nuclear negotiations with Iran appear increasingly unlikely to succeed - despite some 'positive' headlines out of Geneva - and that "the primary question is becoming when and how the US attacks."

The Politico report suggests Tucker Carlson has assessed it exactly right when days ago he complained, "What I really object to, what makes me mad, is when American leaders, whose job it is to represent Americans, are more loyal to a foreign country than they are to their own."

Indeed the outlet goes so far as to emphasize that "There’s a high likelihood of American casualties. And that comes with lots of political risk" - according to the words of one of the officials interviewed for the story.

Once again the decision-makers are on the brink of throwing American troops under the bus for the sake of another bloody regime change war. They might heed the words of one soldier who over a decade ago expressed that the troops themselves are sick of the pointless 'forever wars'...

Bring the soldiers home... I'd like to see a peacetime Army. 

...Israel is more than capable [of fighting its own wars].

🇺🇸This powerful clip is straight from 2012... and man, it rings even truer today in 2026.

The truth doesn't age, perfect time to watch it again.

Source: VetsforRonPaul YT https://t.co/wY7MrEoRcc pic.twitter.com/4p3KV7JIKS

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 26, 2026

Trump himself of course campaigned on starting no new wars, especially in the Middle East. Ironically he's been bragging about ending seven conflicts globally, while standing on the brink of provoking and ordering a new large-scale war breaking out across the whole Mideast region.

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Trump Advisers Want Israel To 'Attack Iran First' For Better Optics: Politico

SpaceX Official Reveals New Details About Next-Gen Cell Service

SpaceX satellite policy lead Udrivolf Pica told participants in the International Telecommunication Union Space Connect webcast about the next-generation Starlink direct-to-device cellular service for smartphones. The revelation of the new service follows SpaceX's October 2025 U.S. trademark filing for "STARLINK MOBILE" and comes as Elon Musk has recently hinted at Starlink mobile ambitions.

"We are aiming at peak speeds of 150 Mbps per user," Pica said, adding, "So something incredible if you think about the link budgets from space to the mobile phone."

PCMag reporter Michael Kan was the first to report Pica's comments, as SpaceX plans to launch new cellular Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit.

Kan continued:

If SpaceX can hit its speed goal, the upgraded cellular Starlink service promises to deliver speeds close to those of traditional cell carriers' 5G networks on Earth. The median download speeds for T-Mobile's 5G network currently reach 309 Mbps, while AT&T's 5G network comes in at 172 Mbps, according to Ookla's Speedtest.net data.

SpaceX has been offering the service through T-Mobile's T-Satellite, allowing users in cellular dead zones to remain connected. However, the current iteration of the cellular Starlink service has bandwidth constraints. Although it can power low-resolution video calls, texts, and select mobile apps using orbiting SpaceX satellites, download speeds only reach an estimated 4 Mbps per user.

SpaceX is preparing to upgrade the technology by using newly acquired radio spectrum from Boost Mobile's parent, EchoStar. In addition, the company has requested regulatory permission to launch another 15,000 satellites for the cellular Starlink service; the current system spans only about 650 satellites. The new system promises to unleash "video, voice, and data services, clearly," Pica said during the panel.

On acquiring the EchoStar radio spectrum, Pica added, "More spectrum means a bigger pipeline, and this means that we can expand what we can do with partners. We can expand the quality of service. And again, we can do cellular broadband basically, cellular broadband use cases, like AI or daily connectivity needs."

. . .

As for SpaceX, the company aims to launch the upgraded cellular Starlink service in late 2027, when its deal for the EchoStar spectrum officially closes. In addition to T-Mobile, SpaceX has been partnering with a growing number of carriers worldwide, including Rogers in Canada and KDDI in Japan, to offer cellular Starlink service.

In September, All-In's Chamath Palihapitiya asked Musk: "Elon, is your vision that instead of having an AT&T account and then roaming when you're in the UK or India, we could have one direct deal with Starlink that works all over the world? Maybe not today, but eventually, is that the end goal?"

Musk responded: "Yes."

$ASTS: Elon interview
- Crystal clear he wants to directly compete against AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile in fixed wireless and now mobile wireless
- It'll take at least 2 years to deploy this spectrum as it requires a completely new satellite and mobile phones with compatible… pic.twitter.com/G1nNPNEbv3

— Anp🅰️nman (@spacanpanman) September 10, 2025

By mid-October, Starlink filed to register the "Starlink Mobile" trademark with the United States Patent and Trademark Office.

Starlink's USPTO filing describes the service as: "Satellite communication and transmission services; transmission of data, voice, image and video via satellite; collecting and transmitting real-time data and images obtained via satellites; telecommunications services, namely, cellular personal communication services."

Back to the All-In podcast, David Friedberg asked Musk: "Could you buy some carriers to acquire more spectrum? Maybe buy Verizon?"

Musk replied: "Not out of the question. I suppose that may happen."

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SpaceX Official Reveals New Details About Next-Gen Cell Service

Judge In Kirk Murder Case Refuses To Disqualify Prosecutors

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A judge ruled on Feb. 24 that a Utah deputy attorney general could continue prosecuting the man accused of murdering Charlie Kirk.

Defense attorneys for Tyler Robinson, the accused shooter, had asked the judge in January to disqualify that member of the prosecution team—along with his entire office—after it was revealed that his daughter had been in the crowd when Kirk was killed.

The young woman did not see the shooting, but texted “CHARLIE GOT SHOT” to a family group chat.

Robinson’s defense attorneys had argued that the prosecutor’s relationship with someone in the crowd might have influenced his decision to seek the death penalty.

The prosecution said in a court filing in Utah’s Fourth Judicial District Court for Utah County that she did not have “any lasting trauma from the event.”

“In fact, nearly everything [she] knows about the actual homicide is hearsay,” the filing said, adding that any testimony she gave would consist of “generic, uncontested details available from literally thousands of other witnesses.”

Utah County Attorney Jeffrey Gray had argued in court that the request was meant to delay the trial.

“This is [an] ambush and another stalling tactic,” Gray said.

Kirk, a popular conservative commentator, was killed last September while speaking at the Utah Valley University campus in Orem, Utah. Robinson, 22, faces aggravated murder charges related to the shooting.

Footage from the day of the shooting appears to show Robinson, wearing sunglasses and a baseball cap, climbing onto a building where the shooting is believed to have originated. He turned himself in after consultation with family members.

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Judge In Kirk Murder Case Refuses To Disqualify Prosecutors

"Weapons-Grade Mind-F**kery": A Campaign Of Bad Faith And Ill Will

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“The SAVE Act can pass today under existing procedure. The obstacle is not the filibuster. It is the habit of surrendering to a myth."

- Alex Muse on X

Lunacy proceeds from crime. In case you wonder why half the country has gone crazy, seek no further than Susan Rice’s stark warning to the other half of the country that is not crazy.

Ms. Rice was Barack Obama’s National Security Advisor and then “Joe Biden’s” Domestic Policy Advisor. She did a podcast last week with Preet Bharaha, former US Attorney in the SDNY, now a private lawyer with the Beltway law firm WilmerHale. Her message to Trump supporters: We’re coming after you when we’re back in power. “Revenge is a dish best served cold.”

WEAPONIZATION: Susan Rice lays out her vision of a post-Trump America where supporters are rounded up and sent to reeducation camps or prisons. pic.twitter.com/IyEPXx4G9T

— @amuse (@amuse) February 20, 2026

It was an important signal and it got a lot of people’s attention. It telegraphed the fear running through the Lefty-left that their crimes against the country are being tallied, carefully catalogued, and presented to a grand jury in Florida.

The crimes are bundled as a multifaceted conspiracy to overthrow the US government.

Pretty serious.

Sedition and Treason.

Susan Rice knows what she (and others) did.

First, in the frantic days between Nov. 3, 2016 and January 20, 2017, Barack Obama’s White House cooked up the Russia collusion hoax with John Brennan’s CIA, James Comey’s FBI, and Loretta Lynch’s DOJ. Ms. Rice, who was in on it, notoriously wrote a CYA memo memorializing the meetings and planted it in her office desk to be easily discovered by the new Trump admin. The memo stated that “every aspect of this issue is handled by the intelligence and law enforcement communities ‘by the book’.” Of course, that was exactly the opposite of what really happened. The mischief emanating from it has run for ten years, crime upon crime upon crime.

Secondly, and surely less-known to the American public, was Ms. Rice’s role as Domestic Policy Advisor under “Joe Biden.” Her actual job from 2021 to 2023 was to serve as a conduit for Barack Obama to run “Joe Biden’s” White House, along with Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken. During those years, the public rarely (if ever) saw Susan Rice. She avoided the news media and did not make public statements or appearances at White House events. The news media were happy to ignore her. They knew exactly what she was up to.

The prime concerns of this cabal were to protect the image (cover up the crimes) of Barack Obama and his associates, to cover up the criminal degeneracy of the Biden family, and to get the Democrat Party back in power by utterly destroying Donald Trump and the populist revolt he headed.

Everything done in “Joe Biden’s” name during those years was to guarantee his party’s return to power, especially the deluge of illegal aliens across the border to pad the census for congressional districts and provide millions of future voters indebted to the party for letting them in (and giving them tons of freebies when they got here. . . phones, housing, food, walking-around money).

Meanwhile, the Democrats erected an immense scaffold of NGOs to funnel taxpayer money into salaries for their corps of political activists — outfits such as Stacey Abrams’ empire of grift in Georgia, the national networks of Antifa and BLM street-fighters, and the matrix of Somali social service fraud in Minnesota and Maine.

This created a huge parasitical patronage class, basically a national racketeering operation.

Eventually all the NGO grift became an end in itself — the Democrats animating principle: grift for grift’s sake, power to just keep it all going and continue to cover up the crime behind it.

The vital component to all this was weapons-grade mind-fuckery to produce a fog of war that would keep the American public utterly bamboozled, unable to comprehend what was happening amid gales of hoaxes, ops, and scams. The Covid-19 caper was the doozy. We still don’t know definitively if the mRNA vaccine program was a deliberate depopulation project, but it kind of looked like it, while plenty of messaging from global institutions — from the Gates Foundation to the WEF to the UN — was pretty explicit about getting rid of useless eaters. On top of all that, throw in the trashing of Western Civ’s industrial economies with “green” trickery, adding another layer of anxiety onto a sore-beset citizenry.

Of course, despite their best efforts — and it was a mighty crusade of bad faith and ill will — the Democrats failed to vanquish Mr. Trump, a strange miracle itself suggesting some sort of divine intervention. The question now is, will Mr. Trump be able to vanquish them? It begins to look like he might, with plenty of help from the Democrats themselves, who have reached a pitch of madness rarely seen in human societies.

Their latest prank: a boycott of the State of the Union speech to Congress.

So far, seven senators and nine congresspersons have promised to bail on the speech, led ostensibly by Senator Adam Schiff of California, a liar so prodigious and fertile that it can be truly said he never uttered an honest word including “yes,” “no,” and “maybe.” This faction will gather on the mall instead and hurl objurgations at the Capitol rotunda.

All that’s needed to finish them off, really, is passage of the SAVE Act so that voters will be required to prove their identity and citizenship, and absentee ballots will be restricted to the old rules about being too sick to get to the poling place, or else out of the country.

Last week, staffers behind the walking mummy, Mitch McConnell, prevented the bill from reaching the Senate floor with some procedural rigmarole.

Mr. Trump must call them out, and call out Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), too, for dragging his feet on whatever’s necessary to pass the SAVE Act.

The country demands honest elections, and one way or another they’ll get them.

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"Weapons-Grade Mind-F**kery": A Campaign Of Bad Faith And Ill Will

Mexico's Cartel Decapitation Strike Fallout: "Not The End, Just The Beginning"

Mexican journalist Luis Cárdenas, listed as a journalist at MVS Noticias and a contributor to El Universal and El Heraldo de México, spoke with security analyst Oscar Balmen about the Mexican Army Special Forces' decapitation strike against the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) by killing Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes.

Balmen explained to Cárdenas that CJNG "is designed to survive without El Mencho."

Cárdenas listed key takeaways from his discussion:

• The fall of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes does not mean the end of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel: it is a transnational criminal structure with a franchise model and regional autonomy.

• The more than 250 blockades after the operation were not aimed at rescuing him, but were a "criminal résumé": plaza bosses flexing muscle to dispute the leadership.

• The risk is not immediate, warns Balmen: the rearrangement can take weeks or months to explode, as happened after the capture of Ismael Zambada García; an internal struggle is coming that could fragment or pulverize the cartel.

“El CJNG es una empresa diseñada para sobrevivir sin el Mencho”: @oscarbalmen

🔴 La caída de Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes no significa el fin del Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación: es una estructura criminal transnacional con modelo de franquicias y autonomía regional.

🔴 Los más… pic.twitter.com/fQ95Rf8cy6

— LuisCardenasMX (@LuisCardenasMx) February 23, 2026

Earlier, Mexico's Secretary of Defense, Ricardo Trevilla, revealed new details at a press conference about the Mexican Army Special Forces raid to capture El Mencho. He said, "El Mencho was captured in a cabin area near his hideout." However, El Mencho later died in a firefight with the military.

📺 TV en DIRECTO | El secretario de Defensa de México, Ricardo Trevilla, revela cómo fue capturado El Mencho en una zona de cabañas cercana a su escondite https://t.co/33JHgvIVcn pic.twitter.com/Q3VruSWm3k

— EL PAÍS (@el_pais) February 23, 2026

Trevilla offered condolences to the families of military members who lost their lives in the mission to decapitate CJNG.

#Mañanera 🔴Con la voz entrecortada, Trevilla Trejo, titular de la Defensa, dio el pésame a las familias de los compañeros que perdieron la vida en el operativo contra ‘El Mencho’.

Señaló que su personal realizó una operación exitosa y mostró la fortaleza del Estado mexicano.… pic.twitter.com/NRSy0vaIC4

— REFORMA (@Reforma) February 23, 2026

He acknowledged that the operation against El Mencho can be viewed from "different perspectives," but he said the Mexican Army has completed its mission.

El general Ricardo Trevilla Trejo reconoce que la operación contra "El Mencho" se puede ver desde "diferentes ópticas", pero defiende que el Ejército mexicano cumplió su misión. https://t.co/alf8Xgf8wb

— Jesús García 🐦 (@JesusGar) February 23, 2026

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also spoke at the press conference, praising the military for the arrest of El Mencho.

“México tiene Fuerzas Armadas Extraordinarias”.

Reconocimiento presidencial al Ejército, Guardia Nacional y Fuerza Aérea por la detención de “El Mencho”.

Más en https://t.co/BjdELZkpfR pic.twitter.com/W0dWPTD0lL

— Joaquín López-Dóriga (@lopezdoriga) February 23, 2026

"The government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum knew that the 'elimination' of El Mencho would trigger a massive terrorist reaction," research analyst Miguel Alfonso Meza of Defensorxs wrote on X.

Meza continued:

One day after the assassination of El Mencho, the repercussions are:

• Collective trauma in the population and hundreds of deadly and economic victims.

• A predictable internal dispute within the CJNG and the prolonged bleeding it will cause.

• The elimination of El Mencho as a potential witness to point out all the politicians and businessmen who protected him, as well as a source of information to dismantle his cartel.

• The establishment of a de facto (military) state of exception in several regions of the country.

• The international perception that Mexico is at war and incapable of guaranteeing security against the cartels, just over 3 months before the World Cup.

• And fuel for Trump's interventionist discourse (even though the operation was joint, Mexico will pay the political cost).

Was there any alternative? Yes. There were far better alternatives.

1. Arresting the most important witness in history instead of assassinating him.

If what matters is dismantling organized crime and its political complicities, El Mencho was one of the most valuable pieces to achieve it. By killing him, they eliminated one of the most important sources of information and, with that, covered up for hundreds of accomplices. They also lost the opportunity to obtain information about how the CJNG operates in order to use it to combat it.

2. Dismantling the CJNG instead of beheading it.

Despite the fact that Mexico and the US know perfectly well that the logic of beheading cartels has failed because it has only increased chaos and violence, they continue to apply it to the letter. And they don't do it for strategic reasons, but for political banality: they want to hang the medal of eliminating a big capo. That medal does nothing to help the population. The death of El Mencho is not the death of the CJNG. That organization maintains the same resources and territorial control yesterday and today. That organization is the one that uses terror to control territory. That organization is still alive and strong: so much so that it can activate simultaneous attacks in 20 states. Now, what they have achieved is for the CJNG to shift to its most violent version and experiment with systematic terrorism applied as retaliation against the State and the population. Instead of cutting off one head of the hydra, they should have dismantled and financially and structurally strangled the Jalisco Cartel. They should have weakened and reduced it in order to capture its leader in a controllable scenario, not in one where the authorities are clearly incapable of containing the spread of terror.

3. Inhibiting terrorism and protecting the population.

The government of @Claudiashein was clearly incapable and negligent in the face of the CJNG's terrorist reaction. The attacks did not just spread throughout the country: their government kept us in an information blackout and left us abandoned.

Meza warned:

The assassination of El Mencho marks the rest of @Claudiashein's government: a president who decided to expose millions of Mexicans to unleashed terrorism. However, this is not the end of the story. It is only the beginning.

What could come next are spillover risks to the US.

Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, has warned... 

🇲🇽 Researcher from Council on Foreign Relations, Freeman says cartel had prepared a "civil war plan" in advance in case of El Mencho's death:

"Mexican drug cartel 'New Generation Jalisco' had a plan in case of a violation of red lines. The murder of a drug lord is precisely one… https://t.co/EPQqTjuTjK pic.twitter.com/FcYZXCacE8

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) February 23, 2026

In a viral post, X user Anonymous Hispano cited a 4chan post from "LONG LIVE EL MENCHO" warning of a "Mexican Civil War," claiming the cartel is enraged and has entered "insurgency mode," starting with a takeover of Jalisco and preparing "inevitable" actions on US soil.

🔴 Un usuario que se hace llamar LONG LIVE EL MENCHO colocó en [Rule 1] un escalofriante aviso en el que afirma que, aunque El Mencho ya no era dirigente activo del CJNG por su avanzada edad, el cártel está muy enojado y ha entrado en "modo insurgencia", comenzando por adueñarse… pic.twitter.com/GHTTRYCJy8

— Anonymous Hispano (@anonopshispano) February 23, 2026

Meanwhile...

BREAKING: The odds of a ground operation in Mexico are soaring.

19% chance it happens by next month. pic.twitter.com/GcfiTHOakl

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) February 23, 2026

Even before Mexico's decapitation strike on CJNG, the US military, special operations, and intelligence agencies had been posturing for a cartel fight, expanding intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions from spy aircraft to drones, and bolstering border and Caribbean forces. We suspect the National Guard deployments in certain US cities were a national security precaution rather than the headline story of cleaning up violent crime in Democratic-run cities. 

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Mexico's Cartel Decapitation Strike Fallout: "Not The End, Just The Beginning"