Rogan: NY Times Writers Are "Ultra Hard Left Activists Masquerading As Journalists"
[4:19 PM | 0 comments ]

Rogan: NY Times Writers Are "Ultra Hard Left Activists Masquerading As Journalists"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

During an episode of his podcast, Joe Rogan slammed New York Times writers, calling them leftist activists pretending to be reporters.

Rogan played a clip of two New York Times ‘journalists’ claiming that anything Donald Trump says now has to be considered in the context of the January 6th Capitol incident, and made fun of how they feel the need to make Instagram videos explaining their ‘reporting’.

“They don’t understand what they’re doing,” Rogan stated, adding “This is exactly who we thought was writing these things. It’s like this very effeminate guy and this woman…these ultra-liberal out-of-touch people.”

Rogan continued, “One of the guys was talking about Donald Trump’s words being taken out of context that it would be a ‘bloodbath’ because he was talking about the auto industry and the economy.”

Rogan further noted that the New York Times used to be populated by “hard-nosed reporters with a cup of coffee that are like f***ing chasing down leads and they’re pulling their hair out and they’re meeting people in back alleyways.”

Now “they’re, they’re essentially like ultra hard-Left activists that are masquerading as journalists and everything has their opinion on it,” Rogan urged.

Watch:

As we highlighted earlier this week, The Washington Post published a report claiming that women choosing to get off hormonal birth control are doing so because of a “misinformation explosion,” and admitted to pressuring social media platforms to remove the opinions and accounts of women who have been on the pill.

It also made a cringe TikTok video doubling down on the gaslighting.

Rogan is right, these people are far left activists using major newspapers as their platforms.

*  *  *

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Musk Warns Ukraine May Lose Odessa & Black Sea Access If It Doesn't Negotiate
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Musk Warns Ukraine May Lose Odessa & Black Sea Access If It Doesn't Negotiate

Elon Musk has once again urged negotiated settlement to end the Ukraine war while warning Ukraine that seeking to keep up and expand the fight will inevitably lead to the loss of Odessa and thus Kiev's access to the Black Sea.

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO underscored that Ukraine's position continues to weaken even as its leadership refuses negotiations while pressing the West for more weapons. "Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question," he stressed in his commentary posted on X.

Via Reuters

Musk was responding in agreement with David Sacks who heavily criticized prominent pundit John Spencer of the Modern War Institute at West Point. Sacks blasted Spencer for his analysis based in "neocon fairy tales about Russian weakness, and puffed up Ukraine’s chances." Sacks also noted Spencer was "a cheerleader for the disastrous summer counteroffensive."

Musk reflected of the failed counteroffensive in the thread, "It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that."

Musk continued: "My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers."

"There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today."

"The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too," Musk wrote.

And that's when he concluded, "Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens."

Musk has been no stranger to controversy and catching flak from the mainstream media over his Ukraine-related commentary. Kiev officials themselves have at times accused the South African-born entrepreneur and billionaire of supposed 'sympathies' with the Kremlin; however, Musk is among those commentators who take a fiercely independent and realist approach to examining the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Musk has frequently defended his record - for example in February lashing out at critics during a Twitter Spaces discussion with Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI): "My companies have probably done more to undermine Russia than anyone. Space X has taken away two-thirds of the Russian launch business. Starlink has overwhelmingly helped Ukraine," he said at the time.

Johnson had during the debate underscored that "We all have to understand that Vladimir Putin will not lose this war... Losing to Vladimir Putin is existential to Vladimir Putin. Russia has four times the population and a much larger industrial base."

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Pandemic Whiskey Boom Turns To Hangover
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Pandemic Whiskey Boom Turns To Hangover

Authored by Douglas French via The Mises Institute,

Yeah, the other night I laid sleeping

 And I woke from a terrible dream

 So I caught up my pal Jack Daniel's

 And his partner Jimmy Beam

 And we drank alone, yeah

 With nobody else

 Yeah, you know when I drink alone

 I prefer to be by myself 

~George Thorogood

I poured hundreds of “Jack and Cokes” when I tended bar from the late 70’s to mid 80’s. It was beyond me how anyone could tell the difference between Jack Daniels Old No. 7 and anything else when mixed with coke or whatever carbonated cola was coming out of the gun. 

Turns out Dr. Fauci and the Center for Disease Control did Brown-Forman, the makers of Jack, a solid by shutting down America and cooping everyone up. More than some whiled away the hours with their old pal Jack Daniels. People may have had to work from home, but without the boss breathing down their necks plenty figured “why not have snoot-full and have fun.” It’ll make the day go by faster. Besides, no customers would be banging on the door. No one will know the difference.

“The phenomenal sales growth we saw during the pandemic was unprecedented and unpredictable but also unsustainable, and now, the spirits market is recalibrating,” Chris Swonger, the president of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, said last month. Those stimulus checks could buy a lot of Jack Daniels, or cause the more frugal drinker to pay more for Jack, instead of cheaper brands. 

Jennifer Maloney writes for the Wall Street Journal, “Some drinkers of Jack Daniel’s Old No. 7 - often used to make the cocktail Jack and Coke - are trading down to cheaper alternatives while others are trading up.”

Price inflation affects consumers differently. For those drinking their whiskey with Coke, just about any will probably do, but for those imbibing theirs neat or on the rocks may spend a few more cheaper bucks for smoothness. 

Even Jack and Coke drinker Brian Moran, a tile-setter who lives in the Chicago suburbs, told the WSJ that a client paid him to tile a kitchen backsplash with five pricier bottles of bourbon, including Stagg, Eagle Rare and E.H. Taylor. “From his first sips, Moran was enthralled,” writes Maloney.

“I don’t know anyone who even drinks it anymore,” he said of Jack Daniel’s Old No. 7, which has a national average price of about $22. “You spend an extra $10 and you get something that’s so much better.”

Brown-Forman reported dismal sales over the winter holiday season and the hangover has lasted into 2024. “Christmas stunk,” Chief Executive Lawson Whiting said on a call with analysts in early March. 

Brown-Forman is trying to entice younger legal-age drinkers to Jack Daniel’s Old No. 7 with a TV commercial set to the AC/DC song “Back in Black.” However, that song was a hit more than 40 years ago. Also the company is selling Jack and Coke in a can, attempting to appeal to young drinkers and females. The canned cocktail contains about 5% alcohol depending on the market. Reportedly there is a no sugar version. Which hardly seems possible. 

Chairman Campbell Brown, a great-great-grandson of founder George Garvin Brown, told investors that the company has weathered Prohibition and the Great Depression, steadily building the Jack Daniel’s brand since acquiring it nearly 70 years ago. 

It was not reported whether he has thanked Dr. Fauci. 

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White House Approves Transfer To Israel Of More Bombs & Jets Worth Billions
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White House Approves Transfer To Israel Of More Bombs & Jets Worth Billions

The Biden White House has approved of sending billions of dollars worth of new military equipment and ammo to Israel, The Washington Post has revealed, even amid public criticism from US officials over Prime Minister Netanyahu's intent to soon send ground troops into Rafah, which is expected to result in humanitarian disaster in the refugee-packed southern city.

This package is to include 25 F-35 fighter jets, sources told the Post, and additionally the highly controversial 2,000-pound bombs which have been known to kill indiscriminately in Gaza when deployed by the Israeli air force.

"The new arms packages include more than 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 MK82 500-pound bombs, according to Pentagon and State Department officials familiar with the matter," the report indicates.

2,000-pound bombs fitted with Joint Direct Attack Munition tail kits, via US Air Force

"The 2,000-pound bombs have been linked to previous mass-casualty events throughout Israel’s military campaign in Gaza," WaPo continues. "These officials, like some others, spoke to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because recent authorizations have not been disclosed publicly."

The 2,000 pound bombs have been flagged by human rights monitors as behind much of the soaring Palestinian casualties, given they can demolish entire city blocks and produce craters over 40 feet wide.

The weaponry was approved as part of a prior authorization, but it highlights that for all the current US-Israel tensions due to the soaring civilian death toll in the Gaza campaign, Biden is certainly no closer to attaching 'conditions' on Israel when it comes to deployment of US-supplied weapons.

A State Department official has explained that "fulfilling an authorization from one notification to Congress can result in dozens of individual Foreign Military Sales cases across the decades-long life-cycle of the congressional notification."

"As a matter of practicality, major procurements, like Israel’s F-35 program for example, are often broken out into several cases over many years," the official added.

A New York Times investigation in December concluded that Israel has been using 2,000 pound bombs supplied by the US on Gaza neighborhoods on a routine basis. The Pentagon has said it almost never uses these types of weapons in densely populated urban areas anymore because of the likelihood of large-scale civilian casualties.

The Times report further said that 2,000 pound bombs had been dropped on Gaza and even inside declared 'safe zones' in the south, some hundreds of times.

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Outrage Ensues As Biden Celebrates "Transgender Day of Visibility" On Easter
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Outrage Ensues As Biden Celebrates "Transgender Day of Visibility" On Easter

The White House has released a statement celebrating "Transgender Day of Visibility," which President Joe Biden 'proclaimed' in 2021 as March 31 - and which has been celebrated by activists on this day since 2014 after this individual 'founded and organized' it.

According to the White House:

"NOW, THEREFORE, I, JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim March 31, 2024, as Transgender Day of Visibility. I call upon all Americans to join us in lifting up the lives and voices of transgender people throughout our Nation and to work toward eliminating violence and discrimination based on gender identity," the statement read. 

And where Easter is typically held the first Sunday after the full moon that occurs on or after the spring equinox, while "Transgender Day of Visibility" is on the same date each year, many have taken offense to the day's proximity to the Christian holiday.

Trending on X:

"The Submission must not include any questionable content, religious symbols, overtly religious themes," a flyer with instructions from the White House stated.

But, of course, the White House is fine with this... 

And Google... 

Former President Trump wasn't thrilled with the woke activism coming from the White House:

The radicals in the White House might have overplayed their hand in their crusade against Christianity, as even the most left-leaning centralists are appalled by Biden's new declaration.

This seems to be a miscalculated move as blowback nears.

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America's Ongoing Death-By-A-Thousand-Cuts
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America's Ongoing Death-By-A-Thousand-Cuts

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Oh Say Can You See?

“A modern nuc can fit in the trunk of a compact car. When millions of people can walk across our border with impunity what do you think the chances are we would catch something that size?”

- Sam Faddis, Retired CIA

Who was not impressed seeing the sudden and total collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge after getting its pylon bonked by the container ship Dali a few hours before the dawn’s early light in Baltimore harbor? In America’s ongoing death-of-a-thousand-cuts, that one literally severed a major artery, but it may take a while to know how badly the wounded colossus known as the USA is bleeding out.

"Joe Biden” emerged from his crypt pronto to state that the federal government would pony-up the cost of building the bridge back better, meant to reassure the public, you’d suppose. But perhaps the real reason was to obviate an otherwise requisite investigation of the crash by ship-owner Grace Ocean’s insurance company — since legal wrangling over responsibility would add more years to the already years-long estimated bridge replacement time-frame. And Gawd knows what else they might discover about how the darn thing came to pass. . . rumors of a Ukrainian captain at the Dali’s helm. . . stuff that the ruling intel blob might not want to get out there, especially given the still-murky role of the joint USA-UK black-op blobs in the Moscow Crocus Theater Massacre just a week earlier.

The Crocus op, you understand, was probably the worst clusterfuck qua Three Stooges blob operational procedure in memory, since four of the six surviving Tajiki shooters were nabbed in a car enroute to the Ukraine border (where they would’ve been whacked into silence, since they failed to martyr themselves at the scene-of-the-crime), and by now had surely sung their hearts out to persuasive interrogators of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) — the take-away being that President VV Putin has got to be mighty pissed-off and itching for revenge. Was the FSK Bridge take-down the first repayment for that, lots of people inside and outside Blob Central were probably wondering?

You’d also have to wonder, qua the bridge disaster itself, about the implied reverberations through the insurance industry. Consider that the insurance industry is a major cog in the machinery of finance and banking, since insurance company reserves are traditionally allocated in supposedly safe sovereign treasury bonds. Liquidations anyone? Maritime insurance was already groaning under the burden of all that monkey-business in the Red Sea, thanks to Houthi rocket and drone attacks on the shipping of Western Civ. Are the banks quaking harder now? Many across Western Civ were already trembling before the FSK Bridge job.

While the awesome spectacle of the bridge collapse traumatized the country, it also brought to mind the fantastic flow of ten-thousand illegal border crossings a day, stage-managed by the “Joe Biden” Homeland Security team. Did you kind of wonder how many in that 10K-a-day flow might be the same species of Central Asian mutts who volunteered to slaughter over 150 (so far) Russian concert-goers? Nobody is checking who they are, you realize. They just step on US soil, get issued smartphones, loaded debit cards, walking-around cash money, airplane and bus tickets and, voila, there they are in your home town tomorrow, looking for something to occupy themselves. Thanks a bunch, Alejandro Mayorkas!

Are you wondering what sort of mayhem they might be capable of unleashing any place from Bangor to Burbank in the weeks and months ahead? (And, while you’re at it, think about all the food processing plant fires, train wrecks, and other mysterious tribulations around the country the past couple of years.) Consider that this very week alone, following the FSK Bridge disaster, absolutely nothing has been done by our government to stem that flow of countless potential saboteurs into the country. The news media isn’t even talking about it (of course).

The prospects might look a bit unnerving, wouldn’t you agree? Things catching fire, blowing up, and falling down here, there, and everywhere. . . more of those thousand cuts adding up. Just maybe, the dazed-and-confused (possibly hypnotized) American public, a.k.a., the “voters,” might put together that “Joe Biden” and the Party of Chaos that owns him, are actually responsible for the on-going take-down of our country. After a certain point — now apparently passed — sheer incompetence is no longer a plausible explanation for what you are seeing.

Oh, one other thing, look out for on-the-ground economic reverberations from the FSK Bridge disaster. For instance, Baltimore is the USA’s top port for importing and exporting automobiles. Also, earth-moving and large farm equipment, fertilizer, lumber, coal, and steel. Other arrangements must be made, for years ahead, considering the trucking links. It’s especially an interruption for trucking between the mid-Atlantic / New England states and much of Dixieland. It will affect the transport of fruits and vegetables to the Washington-Boston corridor. Things are going to cost more and we are already in an inflationary trouble-zone. How will this thunder elsewhere through an economy which, despite the japes of “Joe Biden’s” statisticians, is actively disintegrating? The fluttering wings of this black swan already throw a chill on spring’s incoming zephyrs.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

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"Long Troubled" CarePoint New Jersey Hospitals To Undergo Financial Restructuring
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"Long Troubled" CarePoint New Jersey Hospitals To Undergo Financial Restructuring

It looks like high interest rate market shocks and the commercial real estate dumpster fire have only just begun. The latest example of volatility comes from New Jersey hospital operator CarePoint Health.

The operator owns three hospitals, including the 261-bed Bayonne Medical Center, as well as Hoboken University Medical Center and Christ Hospital in Jersey City, according to Bloomberg/Yahoo Finance. 

Michigan-based Insight has stepped in to try and help financially stabilize the network and then rebrand under the Insight name. 

Dr. Achintya Moulick, CarePoint’s chief executive officer said last week: “Throughout these past challenging months, CarePoint Health has remained resolute and focused on its mission of providing excellent patient-centered care to the people of Hudson County, and our collaboration with the Insight team has been extraordinarily helpful.”

Moulick continued: “Ensuring that our system’s safety net hospitals receive the investment they need to operate sustainably both now and well into the future remains our top priority, and we are exploring various options to meet that goal.”

The report notes that hospitals continue to face high costs for staffing and supplies, impacting even renowned institutions. The financial strain is particularly acute for facilities like CarePoint, which serve a larger proportion of lower-income patients and consequently receive lower reimbursements from government programs compared to private insurers.

The challenges at CarePoint serve as a prime example, Yahoo writes. The New Jersey Department of Health has provided almost $8.4 million in support since mid-February to assist the hospital system with payroll needs and to appoint a chief restructuring officer to aid in its financial recovery.

Insight’s Chief Strategy Officer Atif Bawahab added: “We’ve been in this situation before and we do have a strong sense of optimism for these hospitals to continue to stay open. But at the same time, we do have to make changes, and those changes will take some time.”

Insight acquired Chicago's oldest hospital, Mercy Hospital and Medical Center, from bankruptcy in 2021, preventing its closure. This move by Insight, known for its focus on neurosurgery, orthopedics, and sports medicine, was followed by the purchase of a closed rural hospital in Iowa.

Concerned by CarePoint's financial situation, the New Jersey Department of Health appointed a monitor in January and recently required CarePoint's hospitals to develop emergency plans for potential closures or service halts. CarePoint reported a $68 million loss last year, and several vendors have sued for unpaid bills.

CarePoint has faced financial difficulties for some time. Attempts to sell its Jersey City and Hoboken hospitals to RWJ Barnabas Health fell through in 2019.

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$935 Diabetes Jab Can Be Made For Less Than $5, Study Suggests
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$935 Diabetes Jab Can Be Made For Less Than $5, Study Suggests

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

It costs Novo Nordisk less than $5 per month to produce its top-selling diabetes injection, Ozempic, even as it charges nearly $1,000 for a month’s supply before insurance, according to a new study.

In this photo illustration, boxes of the diabetes drug Ozempic rest on a pharmacy counter in Los Angeles, California, on April 17, 2023. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

The study, published Wednesday in the journal JAMA Network Open, raises questions about the prohibitive cost of the popular diabetes treatment and other weight loss drugs that belong to a pricy class of medications based on GLP-1 technology.

Those medicines work by mimicking a hormone called glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), which stimulates the pancreas to release insulin when blood sugar rises too high, slows down the emptying of the stomach, and targets brain receptors involved in reducing appetite. Over the past year, demand for GLP-1 agonists has exploded despite soaring costs and limited insurance coverage.

For their study, researchers at Yale University, King’s College Hospital in London, and the nonprofit Doctors Without Borders looked at the cost of manufacturing insulin and compared it with that of GLP-1 agonists. They estimated those prices by combining manufacturing costs for the weekly injection with costs of formulation and other operating expenses, plus a profit margin with an allowance for tax.

The foundational price for a weekly dose of injectable semaglutide—the generic name for Ozempic—ranges from $0.89 to $4.73 per month, the study found. By contrast, a vial of human insulin can be manufactured at a cost between $2.37 and $5.94 per month.

A month’s supply of Ozempic is $935.77 for those in the United States without health insurance, according to Novo’s website. The Danish company’s GLP-1 weight loss drug, Wegovy, is listed as $1,349 per month.

Wednesday’s study concluded that GLP-1s “can likely be manufactured for prices far below current prices, enabling wider access.”

“High prices limit access to newer diabetes medicines in many countries,” the researchers wrote. “The findings of this study suggest that robust generic and bio-similar competition could reduce prices to more affordable levels and enable expansion of diabetes treatment globally.”

Citing the findings, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called on Novo to slash prices for both Ozempic and Wegovy, highlighting the price gap for the identical drugs sold in America and other developed countries.

“A new Yale study found that Ozempic costs less than $5 a month to manufacture. And yet, Novo Nordisk charges Americans nearly $1,000 a month for this drug, while the same exact product can be purchased for just $155 a month in Canada and just $59 in Germany,” the senator said in a statement.

“As Chairman of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, I am calling on Novo Nordisk to lower the list price of Ozempic—and the related drug Wegovy—in America to no more than what they charge for this drug in Canada,” he continued. “The American people are sick and tired of paying, by far, the highest prices in the world for prescription drugs while the pharmaceutical industry enjoys huge profits.”

In a statement on Wednesday, Novo declined to provide production costs for Ozempic and Wegovy. However, it emphasized that it invested almost $5 billion in research and development last year, and will be spending more than $6 billion to boost manufacturing to meet the soaring demand for GLP-1s.

The company also noted that the out-of-pocket costs for Ozempic depend on a patient’s insurance coverage, noting that there are different options on its website to help patients address their affordability concerns.

“Congress has been focused on the complexities of the U.S. healthcare system and the interplay of rebates, discounts, administrative fees, co-pays and deductibles–which all play a role in creating a situation where a majority of U.S. patients covered by commercial health plans pay as little as $25 a month for their prescriptions,” it said in a statement.

“Still, affordability challenges are real,” the company said, adding that it supports policy changes to “improve patient affordability and access for those living with chronic diseases.”

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ESG Frustration And Backlash In The Banking Sector Continues
[5:19 PM | 0 comments ]

ESG Frustration And Backlash In The Banking Sector Continues

“Facts that don’t align with ill-informed prejudice are often infuriating. That doesn’t make them wrong. Someone needs to tell the truth about what it’s going to take to get to a net-zero future,” Emily Mir, a spokeswoman for Exxon, said earlier this month.

And that's exactly what Judson Berkey at UBS has done, the focus of a new Bloomberg report. Berkey let loose on a recent conference call with regulators about how unrealistic climate goals were for banks trying to integrate them into their respective economies.

The report covering Berkey's outburst simply concluded that the "world’s biggest banks can’t live up to the green regulatory ideal unless they start dumping huge numbers of clients worldwide at a reckless pace and also roil economies in large swathes of the globe that primarily rely on dirty fuels."

Berkey was on a “check-in” call where regulators query market participants about regulations, the report says, when he expressed his frustration, interjecting: “Banks are living and lending on planet earth, not planet NGFS [Network for Greening the Financial System]”.

The outburst is a microcosm of "cracks" emerging in the banking sector after being draped with regulations about sustainability, the report says. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio famously said last year about ESG: “You have to make it profitable.”

Its indicative of new-world climate regulation going head to head with old world capitalism, the report says. 

Adair Turner, chair of the Energy Transitions Commission in Britain said: Climate change is “an economic externality, and you can’t expect a free market to deal with it voluntarily.”

Banks reevaluating their net zero commitments are facing challenges as they confront the practical implications of these pledges, which include limitations on operating in coal-reliant regions like South Africa, Poland, and Indonesia. These commitments also complicate relationships with clients across various sectors, from commodities firms to companies with less obvious carbon impacts. 

Jonathan Hackett, head of sustainable finance at Bank of Montreal, added: “Our net zero commitments are about being our clients’ lead partner and are consciously taken around the idea that we need to be there with our clients and our clients need to succeed, not that we need to hyper select clients in order to get to net zero somehow faster or better.”

A recent sustainability report from UBS highlighted a "notable shift in emphasis" in climate change discussions, moving from net zero pledges to recognizing the need for a transition phase. The Swiss bank noted that high inflation and input costs will be crucial factors for clients as they develop decarbonization strategies.

James Vaccaro, Chief Catalyst at Climate Safe Lending Network, added: “For banks with substantial capital markets businesses, like those competing with the JPMorgans of the world, it’s fee income that’s on the line here. Ditching clients off track from 1.5C means losing major lines of revenue.”

In sum, the financial industry's initial rush to commit to net zero carbon footprints at the 2021 COP26 summit in Glasgow has hit a reality check. Banks that pledged to reduce financed emissions and invest billions in green and sustainable deals are reevaluating these commitments after facing the complex realities of implementing such drastic changes.

It should be no surprise to our readers: we have been pointed out the collapse of ESG for more than a year now. Earlier in March we wrote how Exxon's CEO had all but declared victory over the "woke" ESG lobby. 

In February, we noted that CEOs were ditching ESG lingo on conference calls. For some context, peak ESG and related synonyms, such as "climate change" and "clean energy" and green energy" and net zero," among other terms, peaked at 28,000 mentions in the first quarter of 2022. Ever since, the number of mentions has rapidly plunged. Halfway through the first quarter earnings season, mentions are around 4,800. 

Andy Wiechmann, the Chief Financial Officer of MSCI, mentioned during his earnings call that "Clients are taking a more measured approach to how they integrate ESG."

On a Jan. 12 earnings call, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink explained how his firm plans to purchase private equity firm Global Infrastructure Partners without mentioning ESG. This makes sense since BlackRock dropped the ESG term after blowback last summer. 

Recall, we also wrote last year about the dying off of ESG and "green" investment products. At the end of 2023, Goldman Sachs shuttered its ActiveBeta Paris-Aligned Climate U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF. 

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out in late 2023 that "there was just way too much supply for the demand" with the ETF and that "it's going to get worse too". Balchunas says the ETF only took in $7 million over the course of 2 years. 

We also wrote about Jeff Ubben late last year, who shuttered his sustainability fund - calling traditional climate summitry an “echo chamber” of diplomats. Less than a week before that we noted that $30 billion had been shaved off the value of clean energy stocks over the preceding 6 months. 

Finally, we pointed out last year how the ESG grift was reaching endgame after Markus Müller, chief investment officer ESG at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank stated that sustainability funds should include traditional energy stocks, arguing that not doing so deprives investors of a prime opportunity to invest in the transition to renewable energy.

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$1 Billion In Tax Refunds Remain Unclaimed As May 17 Filing Deadline Approaches
[3:19 PM | 0 comments ]

$1 Billion In Tax Refunds Remain Unclaimed As May 17 Filing Deadline Approaches

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The IRS building in Washington on Oct. 16, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

The IRS is reminding taxpayers who have not filed their 2020 returns to do so quickly or risk losing out on unclaimed refunds.

Nearly 940,000 Americans have unclaimed refunds from the 2020 tax year worth an estimated $1 billion, the IRS said on March 25. The individuals face a May 17 deadline to submit their returns.

The median refund is $932. American citizens typically have up to three years to file and claim refunds, after which the money goes to the U.S. Treasury.

Since taxpayers may find it difficult to gather information necessary to file returns for 2020, the IRS outlined three ways to access such information:

  • Taxpayers who are missing their W-2, 1098, 1099, or 5498 forms can request copies from their employer, bank, or other payers.
  • Those who are unable to get these forms from employers, banks, or other payers can order a free wage and income transcript at IRS.gov using the agency’s online tool. The agency noted that this will be the quickest and easiest option for many individuals.
  • A third way is for the individual to file a 4506-T form with the IRS, requesting a “wage and income transcript.” Taxpayers can then use information to file their returns. The agency warned that written requests for such transcripts can take several weeks. As such, taxpayers are encouraged to try out other options first.

Usually, the deadline to claim old refunds is around the regular tax deadline, which is April 15 this year. The three-year window for the 2020 returns had been extended to May 17 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We want taxpayers to claim these refunds, but time is running out for people who may have overlooked or forgotten about these refunds. There’s a May 17 deadline to file these returns so taxpayers should start soon to make sure they don’t miss out,” said IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel.

Since taxpayers faced “extremely unusual situations” during the pandemic, some of them may have forgotten about a potential refund on their 2020 returns, he stated.

“People may have just overlooked these, including students, part-time workers, and others. Some people may not realize they may be owed a refund. We encourage people to review their files and start gathering records now.”

In addition to missing out on refunds, failure to file the 2020 return could also result in some taxpayers losing out on the earned income tax credit, which was worth as much as $6,600 in 2020.

“The IRS reminds taxpayers seeking a 2020 tax refund that their funds may be held if they have not filed tax returns for 2021 and 2022,” the agency said.

“In addition, any refund amount for 2020 will be applied to amounts still owed to the IRS or a state tax agency and may be used to offset unpaid child support or other past due federal debts, such as student loans.”

The state with the highest number of individuals estimated to have 2020 refunds due was Texas, with 93,400 taxpayers. This was followed by California with 88,200; Florida with 53,200; and New York with 51,400.

Processing Refunds

The IRS usually takes up to 21 days to process refunds for returns filed electronically. It can take four weeks or more if traditional mail was used. The processing time can be extended in case the returns require extra review or corrections. The fastest way to get refunds is through direct deposit.

In certain cases, taxpayers may not receive the refund amount they were expecting. This could be due to the agency identifying errors on tax returns, or if the refund was used to pay off certain state or federal debts owed, or if the refund from a joint return was used to pay off a spouse’s debts.

In case of errors corrected by the IRS, the agency will send a notice to the taxpayer clarifying the changes.

Tax refunds are critical for many American households as they represent the largest annual cash injection into their budgets. Many families use the refunds to boost their savings or cut down debts.

According to a January survey conducted by Credit Karma, 37 percent of taxpayers who expect to receive a refund plan on using some or all of the money to pay for necessities. Over half of the respondents said they were looking to file their taxes early to get faster refunds.

Thirty-one percent of taxpayers surveyed said they would need their refund to make ends meet.

“That number jumps to 40 percent for millennials and 38 percent for Gen Z taxpayers,” the survey report stated.

In addition to encouraging 2020 tax year nonfilers to file their returns, the IRS has launched an effort to identify high-income taxpayers who have not filed their income taxes since 2017. Over 125,000 such instances have been identified, with taxes being owed in many of these cases.

The initiative was launched late last month, with the agency sending compliance letters to these 125,000 taxpayers.

“The mailings include more than 25,000 to those with more than $1 million in income, and over 100,000 to people with incomes between $400,000 and $1 million between tax years 2017 and 2021,” the agency stated.

Mr. Werfel said that if someone hasn’t filed a tax return in recent years, “this is the time to review their situation and make it right. … For those who owe, the risk will just grow over time as will the potential for penalties and interest. These non-filers should review information on IRS.gov that can help and consider talking to a trusted tax professional as soon as possible.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/29/2024 - 16:05
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NYC Delinquent Property Taxes Approach $1 Billion After Expiration of Tax-Lien Punishment
[4:19 PM | 0 comments ]

NYC Delinquent Property Taxes Approach $1 Billion After Expiration of Tax-Lien Punishment

While New York City embarks on a program to hand out some $53 million in prepaid debit cards to illegals, the city has estimated that overdue property taxes are set to reach their highest level ever, jumping 30% to over $880 million at the end of the fiscal year in June, vs. three years ago. City officials attribute this to the expiration of a tax-lien sales program that would punished delinquencies by allowing the city to sell liens on single-family homes and condos after three years of nonpayment, according to a Tuesday offering document for a city general obligation bond sale cited by Bloomberg.

Under the program created by former Mayor Rudy Giuliani in 1996, and which expired in March 2022, liens slapped on delinquent properties would be discounted and packaged into securities sold to a third-party trust, which borrows money from investors to pay the city upfront, and then assumes responsibility for collecting the outstanding property tax through debt servicing companies (plus fees and interest). After the investors are paid back, the city was entitled to collect additional revenue from fees and interest payments.

45% of New York's tax revenue and 30% of overall funds for the current $114 billion budget come from property taxes - which is expected to top $32.7 billion in the current fiscal year.

"It’s not just the absolute dollar amount that I think should worry us all," city Finance Commissioner Preston Niblack said at a March 4 City Council finance committee hearing, adding that people have realized "there are no consequences for not paying your property taxes."

"That just can't be allowed to continue," he said.

To be sure, the rise in unpaid property taxes comes as New York’s office market continues to struggle. The overall vacancy rate for Manhattan office space stood at 22.5% in November, the highest on record, according to the city’s January financial plan.

Rent-regulated apartments are also facing stress after a 2019 law sharply reduced landlords’ ability to raise rents. -Bloomberg

The tax-lien program faced pushback from community activists and even state Attorney General Letitia James, who said in December 2020 that "additional fees can quickly turn a relatively small tax lien into an overwhelming financial burden, eventually pushing homeowners into foreclosure," referring to a mandatory 5% surcharge, legal fees and a 9% or 18% interest rate that compounds daily.

Between 2018 and 2022, the city collected $260 million from the tax-lien program, according to the city's bond offering document.

A better solution?

Bloomberg further reports that the city's Department of Finance is working on legislation that would reauthorize tax-lien sales, ensuring that homeowners don't face foreclosure or eviction.

"We look forward to working with the [City] Council on this important issue and look forward to a new, more equitable form of property tax enforcement," said Department of Finance spokesman, Ryan Lavis.

The City Council, meanwhile, said in a statement that it's working with the "Administration, advocates, impacted communities, and all stakeholders to advance policies that address outstanding charges while supporting the economic health of homeowners, our communities, and the City."

The biggest offenders include a 16-unit Cobble Hill, Brooklyn rental building which owes $52.2 million of the $880 million estimated delinquency. There's also a 49-unit Bronx apartment building which owes $24.7 million.

"We have to do something," said City Council Member Gale Brewer, who represents the Upper West Side of Manhattan. "People should pay their taxes."

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/28/2024 - 17:20
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Law And Order Is A Killer Problem For Democrats
[4:19 PM | 0 comments ]

Law And Order Is A Killer Problem For Democrats

Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClear Politics,

Polling data shows Democrats are in deep trouble on the issues of domestic safety and unbiased justice. Voters say they want law and order and aren’t getting it. They want enforcement of criminal statutes duly passed by their representatives. They abhor favoritism for some and targeting for others. They want personal safety and basic fairness. They deserve them. And they are angry.

They resent the wide-open border, street shootings, street-corner gangs dealing drugs, carjackings, and unchecked shoplifting. They are stunned that squatters can simply take over houses from their rightful owners. They are troubled by the aggressive prosecution of Donald Trump, while Joe Biden skips away from his family’s extensive grifting operation and a garage full of classified documents.

Although these issues are usually considered separately, they are also important together. The concerns overlap and reinforce each other, harming Biden and his political party. Democrats are seen as weak on crime and feckless on border security, but relentless in prosecuting their principal election opponent and trying to bankrupt him.

Any consideration of law and order as a political issue should begin with the basic obligation of governments at all levels. In liberal democracies, the state should provide that safety with due respect for each citizen’s constitutional rights, without undue force, and without favoritism or political bias. The goal is to let citizens pursue their own private goals in peace, feeling secure in their lives, property, and home life. In democracies like ours, that order must be secured by enforcing statutes and rulings by courts. When disputes arise, as they often do, they should be settled by neutral third parties, either courts or arbiters, using well-established laws and procedures. When state prosecutors are involved, their responsibility is to act without bias, partisanship, or favoritism. Remember, they are part of the executive branch. They are not legislative monarchs. They don’t get to make laws themselves or disregard those that have been passed.

When does government fail to meet those obligations? It fails when the executive branch:

  • Exceeds its discretionary authority to ignore the enforcement of some laws against some people but vigorously enforces them against others; and
  • Flouts the basic obligation to enforce laws fairly, without partisanship and within constitutional limits.

This failure is particularly noxious when the state targets political enemies or disfavored people, such as African Americans in the segregationist South – or conservative populists and their leaders today.

What Americans feel today is a mounting sense that these violations are piling up and that they harm safety, property, and civil rights of citizens in a democracy.

First, they see an erosion of social order. That’s not a problem caused entirely by government. Local communities are also responsible. Violent crime is concentrated among the poor, particularly in black communities because of a breakdown in family life, the disintegration of social norms, and the lack of decent schooling and job opportunities. They don’t trust the police because of hard experience: decades of brutal mistreatment.

These problems have been amplified because of atrocious public policies that go uncorrected after years of failure. Public schools are dreadful in almost every major U.S. city. They are really employment programs for teachers protected by powerful unions. They don’t prepare students for the modern workforce or instill the knowledge and values needed for citizenship. (That failure is why Republican-controlled states are now moving rapidly to give parents school choice, including the funds to educate their children in private schools.)

Progressive cities and states have been unwilling to enforce laws protecting people and property on the specious grounds that doing so would jail too many minorities and thus undermine “social justice.” But don’t people in impoverished communities have as much right to live in peace and safety as people in middle-class neighborhoods? Shouldn’t they have a chance to shop in local stores, rather than see them closed because of rampant organized shoplifting and strong-armed robberies which go unprosecuted and, hence, undeterred? Shouldn’t they be able to stop at the gas station and fill up their cars without fear of carjacking? Shouldn’t they be able to walk the streets or sit on their front porch, rather than huddle inside, afraid of street-corner drug gangs and random shootings? It’s a perversion of language to call these dysfunctional public policies “progressive.”

The breakdown of civic order was obvious in the rioting and arson that followed the death of George Floyd in 2020. Almost no one was punished. The Democratic National Convention, held that summer, spent far more time genuflecting to the rioters’ grievances than condemning the riots themselves. Many speakers focused their outrage on police forces across the country.

The most “progressive” politicians advocated the outright abolition of local police forces. The effects on public safety were utterly predictable. Surprisingly, it wasn’t butterflies, rainbows, and unicorns. If there was a pot of gold, it was looted.

Second, voters see a president and a party utterly unwilling to enforce border laws. Controlling entry into the country is a basic feature of every country’s sovereignty. Citizens know it. They also know Joe Biden inherited a border that was largely (but not completely) secure. In his first week as president, Biden systematically dismantled the policies that ensured border control.

We are living with the consequences of this president’s catastrophic decisions. Since he took office, between 7 and 10 million people have crossed the border illegally. With them have come vast quantities of illegal drugs, manufactured in Mexico from precursor chemicals sent from China. Those drugs kill some 100,000 Americans each year. No one has any idea how many spies and terrorists have also infiltrated. When the state of Texas, fed up with an open border, erected its own barbed wire barrier (it worked), the Biden administration’s Department of Justice sued to have it removed without offering any substitute.

The massive influx of illegal immigrants is crushing city and state budgets. Those jurisdictions simply don’t have the money to provide housing, schooling, food, or medical care for this huge population of indigents. They can’t cope with the violent criminal gangs that have immigrated (some from as far away as Chile), have enriched themselves with drug sales and human trafficking, and have become entrenched across the U.S.

Some financial effects of this influx are currently hidden but will be felt soon. I was privately informed that a major research hospital, far from the southern border, is now losing over $1 billion per year in uncompensated medical care for illegal aliens. Numbers like that will soon break the hospital and others like it across America. If Washington picks up the tab, it will be another massive hit to the deficit.

Democrats have become so entrapped by these problems that they can no longer speak straight. They cannot say the plain words, “illegal immigration.” They faint at the words “illegal alien,” a term used in statutes for decades. Today’s Democrats condemn that language and try to mask the harsh reality with gooey phrases like “asylum seekers” (very few qualify), “irregular immigration,” and even “newcomers.”

Evasive phrases like these may be popular in toney Greenwich, Connecticut, but not in Gary, Indiana. The growing anger in poor, minority communities about crime and illegal immigration is a serious problem for Democrats, who can’t win without overwhelming support and turnout from African Americans. They are none too happy about competing with illegal immigrants for lower-skilled jobs and public resources.

Democrats didn’t expect that problem with their core constituency. Nor did they expect it from Hispanics, who voted overwhelming for Biden in 2020 but are now slipping away. Whether that shift among Hispanics is temporary or permanent will affect elections for years to come. In either case, it will affect the outcome in 2024.

Third, while the federal government and blue states are steadfastly refusing to enforce basic laws on immigration, theft, squatting, and so on, they are simultaneously mounting zealous legal attacks on Biden’s general election opponent. Several states tried to keep him off the 2024 ballot until the Supreme Court stopped them. Prosecutors in New York and Georgia, plus Biden’s Department of Justice, are now trying to imprison Donald Trump, tie him down in court during the campaign season for alleged misdeeds that happened years ago, while also hoping to break him financially, a process led by local prosecutors who campaigned on the promise to “get Trump.” As Letitia James once told a supporter, “We’re definitely gonna sue him, we’re gonna be a real pain in the a--."

In fulfilling that promise, James and fellow partisan prosecutors (and, alas, judges) have trampled on his basic constitutional protections and their own duties as officers of the court. Honest legal systems do not operate under the principle of “Show me the man, and I’ll find you the crime” a dictum popularized behind the Iron Curtain during the reign of terror by Stalin’s secret police. It should be anathema in a democracy, not the best explanation for actions by Letitia James, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, Atlanta prosecutor Fani Willis, or local New York judge Arthur Engoron. Nor should their actions be cheered by rabid partisans, much as they hate Trump. Yet that is exactly what they are saying on social media. They want vengeance.

Independent voters want something else. They want fairness. Many are not in love with Trump’s candidacy, but they still think he is being manhandled by prosecutors and judges. And they think that is fundamentally wrong. It will drive some of them to vote for him, or at least against his opponent.

Our Constitution is supposed to protect citizens against biased, politicized law enforcement. There are explicit constitutional protections against excessive fines, for instance. Those shouldn’t just be meaningless words on paper. Yet Judge Engoron, who oversaw the bench trial concerning Trump’s bank loans, ordered the former president to post a half-billion dollar bond simply to appeal the questionable legal decision. (On the final day to post it, a state appeals court cut the bond in half and eased a few restrictions the trial judge imposed on the Trump Organization’s business.)

Trump has said he will abide by the appellate decision. He has little choice. If he doesn’t post the bond, he loses even the right to appeal. Meanwhile, James blasts out another a taunting tweet each day, gleefully observing that Trump owes another $100,000 in interest. She loves it and says so brazenly.

James and Judge Engoron are attempting to break the former president financially before he can appeal a court decision. Whether Trump wins or loses on appeal, he should have the right to raise his legal arguments without overwhelming financial impediments. The judge could have easily accommodated that appeal, but he refused. He could have easily accepted a lower bond, such as the $100 million proffered by Trump, but he refused. Meanwhile, James was gleefully preparing to seize Trump’s properties and force a fire sale until the state appellate court lowered Trump’s bond and gave him 10 more days to comply.

These were shameful exercises of partisan power, done under the color of law. They may end up helping Trump politically, but that’s not the point here. The crucial point is that they undermine the unbiased, non-partisan rule of law, a foundational principle in any true democracy.

Voters can see the fundamental unfairness. So can investors, who are worried by what looks like the arbitrary loss of Trump’s property rights. When that happens in Manhattan, the capital of world finance, there will be consequences.

Each of these issues – massive illegal immigration, biased law enforcement, the erosion of property rights, and “Get Trump” lawfare – is important in its own right. Together, they are even more important. Taken together, they reinforce Americans’ sense of unease, social division, and betrayal by a justice system tilted against political enemies. They are frustrated by governments at all levels that seem arbitrary, inept, and unwilling to meet their most basic obligations.

If the polls are right, voters will make their frustration felt in November.

Charles Lipson is the Peter B. Ritzma Professor of Political Science Emeritus at the University of Chicago, where he founded the Program on International Politics, Economics, and Security. He can be reached at charles.lipson@gmail.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/27/2024 - 17:40
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Gold Vs. Bitcoin: Comparing The Top 10 Monetary Characteristics
[3:19 PM | 0 comments ]

Gold Vs. Bitcoin: Comparing The Top 10 Monetary Characteristics

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

Given the characteristics of gold and Bitcoin, which is best suited for sending value through time and space?

Below, I’ll analyze the ten most decisive monetary attributes and see whether gold or Bitcoin has an advantage.

Monetary Attribute #1: Scarcity

The World Gold Council estimates there are 6.8 billion ounces of mined gold globally, and annual production averages around 118 million ounces.

That much is what is known. However, we don’t know how much gold will be discovered and mined in the future.

For example, how many mined ounces of gold will be available on June 1, 2031?

We can probably make a pretty accurate projection, but nobody can know.

What will the Bitcoin supply be on June 1, 2031?

It will be around 20,589,121 Bitcoins.

With Bitcoin, the current and future supply is finite and known to all.

There will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins, and there is nothing anyone can do to change that.

Today, the Bitcoin supply is about 19.6 million, meaning the vast majority—over 93%—of the total Bitcoin supply has already been created.

The remaining 1.4 million BTC will come onto the market at a preset, ever-decreasing rate until the last Bitcoin is created 116 years from now, in 2140.

In other words, Bitcoin’s supply will only grow about 7% in the next 116 years.

The supply of Bitcoin won’t grow much at all from here.

By 2030, over 98% of all Bitcoins will have already been created.

Bitcoin_apex, a German Bitcoin advocate, describes Bitcoin’s scarcity like this:

8 billion people, 21 million Bitcoin.

That is proportionally as if:

80,000 people had to share $210.

8,000 people spread out on a bus with 21 seats.

800 people would share 2.1kg of bread.

80 people sharing 0.21 liters of water.

8 people would have to live in an apartment with 0.021 square meters.

Here’s another way to think of it.

Owning 1 BTC is like owning 324 ounces of the global gold supply; each would give you ownership over about 0.00000476% of the overall supply.

Owning 1.236 BTC is like owning a 400-ounce Good Delivery gold bullion bar; each would give you ownership over about 0.0000059% of the overall supply.

Here’s the bottom line.

Gold is scarce, but only Bitcoin is absolutely scarce.

Verdict: Bitcoin Wins

Monetary Attribute #2: Hardness

In my view, hardness is the most important monetary attribute.

Hardness does not mean something that is necessarily tangible or physically hard, like metal. Instead, it means “hard to produce.” By contrast, “easy money” is easy to produce.

The best way to think of hardness is “resistance to debasement,” which helps make it a good store of value—an essential function of money.

All other monetary characteristics are meaningless if the money is easy for someone to produce.

What is desirable in a good money is something that someone else cannot make easily.

For example, imagine the price of copper going 5x or 10x.

You can be sure that would spur increased production, eventually expanding the copper supply. Of course, the same is true of any other commodity.

That’s why there is a famous saying in mining: “The cure for high prices is high prices.”

The dynamic of higher prices incentivizing more production and ultimately more supply, bringing prices down, exists with every physical commodity. However, gold is the most resistant to this process.

That supply response is why most commodity prices tend to revert around the cost of production over time.

This dynamic is even more profound with money.

When an asset obtains monetary properties, the natural reaction is for people to make more of it—a lot more of it.

This is known as the easy money trap.

Historically, gold was always the hardest asset, the one most resistant to the easy money trap… until Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the first—and only—monetary asset with a supply entirely unaffected by increased demand.

That is an astonishing and game-changing characteristic.

That means the only way Bitcoin can respond to an increase in demand is for the price to go up. Unlike gold and every other commodity, increasing the supply in response to increased demand is not an option.

The stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio measures an asset’s hardness.

S2F Ratio = Stock / Flow

The “stock” part refers to the amount of something available, like current stockpiles. It’s the supply already mined. It’s available right away.

The “flow” part refers to the new supply added from production and other sources each year.

A high S2F ratio means that annual supply growth is small relative to the existing supply, which indicates a hard asset resistant to debasement.

A low S2F ratio indicates the opposite. This means that new annual production can easily influence the overall supply and prices, which is not desirable for something that functions as a store of value.

Before I move on, it’s important to clarify that hardness is not the same as scarcity. They are related concepts but not the same thing.

For example, platinum and palladium are scarcer than gold but not hard assets. Current production is high relative to existing stockpiles.

Unlike gold, stockpiles of platinum and palladium have not built up over thousands of years. It’s the primary reason why new supply can easily rock the market.

Because of their low S2F ratios, platinum (0.4x) and palladium (1.1x) are not suitable as money. Their low S2F ratios indicate they are primarily industrial metals, corresponding to how people use them today. Almost nobody uses platinum and palladium as money.

Gold has an S2F ratio of 60x. That means it would take about 60 years of the current production rate to equal the existing gold supply.

Today, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is about 57x, slightly below gold’s.

According to its fixed protocol, we know precisely how Bitcoin’s supply will grow in the future.

A key feature is that the new supply gets cut in half every four years, which causes Bitcoin’s hardness to double every four years. This process is known as the “halving.”

The next time Bitcoin’s supply growth will be cut in half will be in April 2024.

But this coming halving will be very different…

That’s because Bitcoin’s hardness will be almost twice that of gold’s when that happens.

That’s how Bitcoin will soon become the hardest money the world has ever known. And it will keep getting harder as its S2F ratio approaches infinity.

For thousands of years, gold has always been mankind’s hardest money. That is all set to change in a few weeks, and most people have no idea.

Verdict: Bitcoin Wins

Monetary Attribute #3: Liquidity

Having a large global pool of buyers and sellers—liquidity—is critically important for any serious money.

With a market cap of around $14.6 trillion, gold has a large pool of global liquidity.

At around $1.3 trillion, Bitcoin has a much smaller pool of global liquidity.

However, it is growing quickly.

If the Bitcoin price goes up 10x—which it has done many times in its history, and I expect it will do again soon—Bitcoin’s pool of global liquidity will be within spitting distance of gold’s.

If Bitcoin’s market cap and pool of liquidity continue to grow faster than gold’s, it will erode gold’s advantage. But for now, gold wins.

Verdict: Gold Wins

Monetary Attribute #4: Portability

If you send $1 billion worth of physical gold from New York to Beijing, complicated and expensive logistics are required.

$1 billion of gold weighs about 14,300 kilograms (or about 31,500 pounds). Transporting that much gold would likely involve multiple cargo flights and then armored trucks moving it from the destination airport to the destination vault.

It would also require insurance, navigating regulations, paying import or export taxes, clearing customs, and thorough verification of the gold’s purity, among other things.

It would also take considerable time; It wouldn’t happen overnight.

Transporting smaller amounts of gold is also problematic. For example, going through airport security with gold coins and bars will likely generate unwanted attention.

These are some of the issues with gold’s portability.

Physical gold is vulnerable to seizure in part because of the problems with transporting it.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is the most portable asset in the world.

It is a digital bearer asset that can achieve final international settlement in 10 minutes for pennies.

You can send $1 billion worth of Bitcoin from New York to Beijing for less than $10 in fees. It will arrive in around 10 minutes.

The transaction has no credit risk and no counterparty risk. You don’t need to get anyone’s permission or need to use—or trust—any third party whatsoever. And there’s nothing anybody can do to block, freeze, reverse, or censor the transaction.

The recipient can instantly verify the Bitcoin’s authenticity at no cost.

Going through airports and crossing borders with Bitcoin is also much more practical than other forms of wealth.

If you hold Bitcoin on your phone, laptop, or flash drive, it can be accessible to border agents if they search you and you reveal your password. However, those things are much less conspicuous than physical gold.

Further, many popular Bitcoin wallets use a 12-word phrase to recover your funds. If you can memorize the 12-word phrase, you can potentially store billions of dollars worth of value just in your head with nothing else.

When it comes to portability, Bitcoin isn’t just slightly better. It’s an upgrade orders of magnitude better than gold.

It’s an even more profound upgrade than when mankind moved from using horse carriages for travel to using Boeing 747 airliners. It’s more like going from horse carriages to futuristic teleportation machines that can instantly beam you from one location to another.

Verdict: Bitcoin Wins

Monetary Attribute #5: Verifiability

Do you really know that the gold you own is authentic?

It could look something like this on the inside.

Chances are the gold you own is indeed authentic… but you can never know for sure unless you test it yourself with specialized equipment. Otherwise, you’ll have to trust a third-party auditor and appraiser.

If you want 100% certainty, you’ll probably need to melt the gold down and recast it.

No matter how you do it, verifying gold’s authenticity is infrequent, slow, people-intensive, costly, and potentially unreliable. It also doesn’t scale.

With Bitcoin, counterfeiting is practically impossible. Simple mathematics can instantly verify a Bitcoin transaction’s authenticity at no cost.

If you doubt it, try to send some fake Bitcoin and see what happens.

I don’t see any reason to believe Bitcoin’s resistance to counterfeiting would be eroded.

Further, imagine if the average person could instantly audit and verify the entire global gold supply’s authenticity—without relying on any third party. That’s what anyone can do with Bitcoin.

In short, Bitcoin users have a level of certainty that has never previously existed for any other monetary asset.

Verdict: Bitcoin Wins

Monetary Attribute #6: Fungibility and Privacy

Anyone can go to a website with details of the public Bitcoin blockchain to analyze and view the entire transaction history.

The information on Bitcoin’s blockchain doesn’t explicitly show your name, address, and other personal information. However, suppose it became known that a particular Bitcoin address was associated with you. In that case, outsiders could track your balance and every transaction you make.

Particular Bitcoins could also become “tainted” through transactions that governments don’t like. For example, suppose you received a Bitcoin with a transaction history linking it to someone in North Korea, Iran, or another sanctioned entity. It might cause complications.

All of this raises a fundamental question.

How do you obtain privacy on Bitcoin’s public blockchain?

It’s a good question that confuses many people.

The answer involves hiding in crowds.

Obtaining privacy on Bitcoin has been likened to the scene in the movie V for Vendetta in which thousands of masked people marched in the street. They were all engaged in a public act, but their identities were concealed because they all wore the same mask, allowing them to hide in a crowd.

Privacy in Bitcoin works similarly.

Several excellent privacy tools are available to anyone right now on Bitcoin, and they are getting better every day.

For example, you can find a typical JoinMarket transaction, a special Bitcoin transaction optimized for privacy, at the link below.

Can you tell who the sender and receiver are?

https://mempool.space/tx/a56d23da7df68eb49d3665452bf7085c07a79be62f29f19e588240f02eb94c76

On the other hand, physical gold doesn’t retain a transaction history for anyone to view at any time. Further, you can always melt down a gold bar or coin and recast it to destroy any previous associations.

I expect developments in the next few years to significantly increase Bitcoin’s fungibility and privacy for all users.

In the meantime, gold has an advantage.

Verdict: Gold Wins

Monetary Attribute #7: Durability

Gold is indestructible. It doesn’t decay or corrode. That’s why most of the gold people produced even thousands of years ago is still around today.

With Bitcoin, all aspects are genuinely decentralized and robust.

Even if the US and Russia engaged in an all-out nuclear war, destroying most of the Northern Hemisphere, Bitcoin wouldn’t miss a beat in the Southern Hemisphere.

Barring an inescapable, global return to the Stone Age that lasts into eternity, Bitcoin is durable… but not as durable as physical gold.

Verdict: Gold Wins

Monetary Attribute #8: Divisibility

Physical gold is generally inconvenient and impractical to use for small transactions.

A one-gram bar—around the size of a pushpin—is about the smallest practical size. As of writing, one gram of gold is worth about $65. Transactions worth anything less than that will be problematic.

Each of the 21 million Bitcoins can be divided into 100,000,000 units called satoshis (or sats). Each sat is worth 0.00000001 of one Bitcoin.

As of writing, it takes about 1,500 sats to make a dollar, which means a penny is worth 15 sats, and each sat is worth 1/15 of a penny.

In short, Bitcoin’s extreme divisibility allows for transactions of any size—from fractions of a penny to billions.

Verdict: Bitcoin Wins

Monetary Attribute #9: Scalability

If gold or Bitcoin becomes the world’s dominant money, how can it be scaled to billions of people?

That’s a key question.

With gold, settling all transactions in physical payments—especially small ones—is not practical.

Trusted third parties, like mints, vaults, banks, transportation companies, and others, are necessary for gold to function as a practical medium of exchange at scale. These entities must follow all laws and regulations, or governments will quickly shut them down.

In short, trusted third parties are centralized vulnerabilities. Governments can capture and coerce them.

This is exactly how governments used the gold standard to bootstrap the fiat currency system into existence.

First, people used physical gold as money. Then, to scale, they necessarily turned to third parties, like banks, that stored gold and issued gold IOUs to facilitate trade. Governments captured those third parties and gradually removed the gold backing from the IOUs until they were nothing more than confetti. In short, that is how the fiat currency system was born.

Here’s the bottom line.

Gold’s biggest flaw as money is that for it to function at scale, it requires IOUs and third parties beholden to governments.

With Bitcoin, anyone can send and receive value—from fractions of a penny to billions—worldwide without relying on any third party and achieve final international settlement within minutes, 24/7/365.

However, the base layer of the Bitcoin network can only process about 576,000 transactions a day.

Every day, there are over 2,000,000,000 consumer transactions around the world. That means Bitcoin can only process about 0.029% of them. That’s why recording every Starbucks or McDonald’s transaction on the Bitcoin blockchain was never possible.

It was also never desirable.

If Bitcoin needed to record every consumer transaction on its blockchain—or even a fraction of them—it would require an industrial-scale operation with expensive data centers. The average computer would no longer be able to run the Bitcoin software.

In this scenario, Bitcoin might as well be another PayPal, Visa, or another centralized financial service where you need to ask for permission to do anything.

Remember, Bitcoin’s entire value proposition depends on it being neutral, censorship-resistant, accessible to everyone, and controlled by nobody.

To have these properties, it’s essential that the average person can run the Bitcoin software. That’s why Bitcoin has a hard limit on the transactions it can handle each day. It needs to be this way so that the average computer—and soon the average smartphone—can easily handle running Bitcoin. That makes Bitcoin genuinely decentralized and incorruptible, giving it unique monetary properties.

It’s crucial to emphasize that Bitcoin, without decentralization, would be worthless.

Scaling Bitcoin by compromising its decentralization would defeat its entire purpose.

Does that mean Bitcoin will never be able to scale and achieve widespread adoption?

Absolutely not.

Numerous scaling solutions for Bitcoin will inevitably emerge. However, the Lightning Network is the most dominant one.

The Lightning Network is an open, peer-to-peer network built on top of Bitcoin.

Anyone can use the Lightning Network, and nobody can be prevented from using it.

On the Lightning Network, people can perform an unlimited number of transactions without needing to add them to the Bitcoin blockchain. Delegating custody of funds to a third party is unnecessary—you can always remain in control.

The Lightning Network can eventually allow Bitcoin to scale up and handle every consumer transaction in the world.

Verdict: Bitcoin Wins

Monetary Attribute #10: Recognition

While gold is an established money, Bitcoin is an emerging one.

Gold has over 5,000 years of history as money. You can take gold to any country in the world, and most will instantly recognize it.

Bitcoin doesn’t have this established history and recognition. It’s only been around since 2009.

It took gold centuries to achieve monetization. Bitcoin has a good chance of undergoing monetization in a much shorter period—and it’s already well on its way.

In the meantime, gold has the advantage.

Verdict: Gold Wins

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 03/27/2024 - 17:00
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