US Banks See Large Deposit Inflows As Bailout Fund Expires, RRP Liquidity Plunges
With The Fed's bank bailout facility now expired (and the one-year term loans starting to mature), it is perhaps not surprising that we saw a very large liquidity drain from The Fed's Reverse Repo facility in the last two days - over $107BN pulled out to fresh cycle lows...
Source: Bloomberg
Total deposits - on a seasonally-adjusted basis - rose by $54BN last week...
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis - remind us again how actual deposits are seasonally-adjusted - banks saw and even larger $82BN deposit inflow...
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding foreign bank deposits, domestic banks saw seasonally-adjusted deposits rise $60BN (Large Banks +$59BN, Small Banks +$0.9BN), and non-seasonally-adjusted deposits rose $94BN (Large Banks +$73BN, Small Banks +$21BN)...
Source: Bloomberg
However, rather oddly, on the other side of the ledger, loan volumes plunged despite the surge in deposits (Large bank loan volumes tumbled $15BN while Small bank loan volumes rose by $0.3BN)....
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, as if you needed a reminder after the recent NYCB debacle-and-bailout - the regional bank crisis is still very much alive as evidenced by the red line below (without The Fed's expired BTFP facility)...
Source: Bloomberg
...what else are big banks (green line) going to do with all that cash burning a hole in their pockets (although we do note a big cash drop at large banks - which includes NYCB). Regional bank shares took a tumble this week, erasing all the post-NYCB bailout gains...
As one veteran Fed watcher remarked "this is such a clusterfuck... deposits should be $500BN lower"
Source: Bloomberg
The bottom line is - this looks a lot like a 'Small Bank' crisis. The last time this happened, the crisis sparked a sudden $300BN 'run' in small bank deposits (this time it's bigger!).
Is The Fed 'hoping' for a controlled bank-run this time - so as many small bank deposits are drained voluntarily, before they are drained all at once in a panic (and the Reverse Repo facility is empty, unable to provide any cushion)?
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