Stocks, Bond Yields, & Bullion Puke After Powell Pummels Dovish Dreamers, Assails AI

'Soft' survey data continued its trend weaker...

Source: Bloomberg

And NYCB shit the bed...

Source: Bloomberg

Which is probably why The Fed culled the sentence: "The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient" from its statement!

Not a good look.

BUT... The FOMC statement was a total hawkgasm...

And the market's initial reaction followed that guidance. Then the idiot algos bid stocks back to the highs of the day after Powell said he had "confidence" in inflation coming down (but missed the bit about him saying he needed more confidence).

Powell appeared subliminally aware of that and curb-stomped any dovish hope with the following triple-whammy:

• *POWELL: DON'T THINK IT'S LIKELY FED WILL CUT IN MARCH

• *POWELL: MY GUESS IS PRODUCTIVITY MAY GO BACK TO WHERE WE WERE

• *POWELL: PLANNING TO START IN-DEPTH BALANCE SHEET TALKS IN MARCH

So, no March cut, AI gains are temporary, and QT ain't coming by March.

The doves cried...

March rate-cut odds tumbled and expectations for 2024 total cuts declined notably...

Source: Bloomberg

And the stock market went wild (as evidenced by the swings in TICK). Initial jerk lower (as selling hit in the statement) held until the presser and algos went crazy with a massive buy program... which was then crushed by a just as massive sell program...

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps were the day's biggest loser (down 2.5%!), with The Dow the least ugly horse in the glue factory. The S&P and Nasdaq were ugly...

As 'most shorted' stocks were clubbed like a baby seal. A close up on the day's actions shows the algos doing their best to ignite a squeeze... then failing dismally...

Source: Bloomberg

And MAG7 stocks were monkeyhammered (MAG7 basket's worst day since Dec 2022)...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, 0-DTE traders fought The Fed all afternoon, with positive delta flow unable to lift stocks..

Source: SpotGamma

Treasury yields were down on the day with the short-end outperforming. The early gains on flight-to-safety bids on NYCB (and weak ADP) were largely erased by the hawkish Fed...

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield pushed back up to 4.00% towards the close but then yields puked to the lows of the day in the last few mins...

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) bull-steepened on the day, back up near dis-inversion...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar had quite a day with a plunge early on weak ADP and NYCB's collapse. But then screamed up to the highs of the day

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was the mirror image of the dollar, ripping higher on flight-to-safety demand as NYCB imploded, then dumping back as a hawkish Fed spoiled the party...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices accelerated lower today on weak data, a crude build, and hawkish Fed with WTI back below $76..

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended lower - following the same kind of chaotic swings in the FX and gold...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, we are seeing a return to notable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs...

Source: Bloomberg

...as GBTC outflows appear to be dwindling.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/31/2024 - 16:00
https://ift.tt/5LgsxBp
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/5LgsxBp
via IFTTT

Stocks, Bond Yields, & Bullion Puke After Powell Pummels Dovish Dreamers, Assails AI

MSFT Shares Unimpresssed By Big Top- & Bottom-Line Beat

With Microsoft standing alone above the $3 trillion market-cap level (after AAPL's recent weakness), all eyes are on tonight's earnings for any signs of an inflection in the AI-exuberance.

Source: Bloomberg

And sure enough, at the headline level at least, it's all-good with MSFT beating top- and bottom-line (by a big margin)...

• Revenue $62.02 billion, +18% y/y, estimate $61.14 billion

• EPS $2.93 vs. $2.20 y/y, estimate $2.78

Under the hood, all segments beat expectations:

• More Personal Computing revenue $16.89 billion, estimate $16.8 billion

• Productivity and Business Processes revenue $19.25 billion, estimate $19.03 billion

...with the heavily AI-exposed intelligent cloud unit once again the highlight:

• Microsoft Cloud revenue $33.7 billion, estimate $32.21 billion

• Intelligent Cloud revenue $25.88 billion, estimate $25.29 billion

Intelligent Cloud revenue growth was flat (in constanr currency)at 18% YoY...

The flagship Azure  (cloud computing product) growth continued to re-accelerate to 30% YoY (but was flat on a constant currency basis)...

Satya seems pleased, and so he should with operating income up 33% YoY at $27.03 billion:

"We’ve moved from talking about AI to applying AI at scale," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.

"By infusing AI across every layer of our tech stack, we’re winning new customers and helping drive new benefits and productivity gains across every sector.”

But, MSFT shares dumped initially than rebounded back to unchanged from the close (down on the day)...

...is it all priced in?

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/30/2024 - 16:15
https://ift.tt/bDOL9St
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/bDOL9St
via IFTTT

MSFT Shares Unimpresssed By Big Top- & Bottom-Line Beat

Yields JOLTed Higher, Stocks Lower Ahead Of Fed/Treasury

Higher-than-expected job openings from the JOLTS survey lifted bond yields (optimistically) today but the real story was in the quits - which dropped to pre-pandemic levels (suggesting "workers' willingness of ability to leave jobs" is considerably lower (i.e. labor market not strong). You can decide which is more 'real'.

Home price appreciation slowed, according to Case-Shiller; but consumer confidence ripped with 'current conditions' hitting the highest since pre-COVID-lockdowns.

The short-end underperformed with notable bear flattening in the curve. The long-end actually rallied on the day (30Y -4bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

In the meantime, 'soft' survey data continues to trend lower as 'hard' economic data is reignited...

Source: Bloomberg

... by the massive loosening of financial conditions...

Source: Bloomberg

But most notably, this is where the week gets really exciting with tonight's GOOG/MSFT earnings, tomorrow's Treasury AQR details, then FOCM and so on.

The Dow managed gains on the day with the S&P 500 unchanged while Nasdaq and Small Caps in the red...

Source: Bloomberg

...as MAG7 stocks faded (on AAPL shipment anxiety), erasing all of yesterday's gains...

Source: Bloomberg

The vol market is pricing some 'uncertainty' in the next few days then a return to the usual...

Source: Bloomberg

Yesterday's manic meltup squeeze was erased in 'most shorted' stocks after it tagged last week's high stops...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended yesterday's gains, holding around $43,500, but Ethereum surged back above $2350...

Source: Bloomberg

...after the smallest GBTC outflow since 'day one' of the ETFs (and highest net inflow in two weeks)...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended marginally lower on the day but was mostly directionless...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (spot) surged up towards $2050 as the cash equity market opened this morning, only to fall back down to a modest gain after JOLTS...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended higher with WTI bouncing off $76.00 up to $78...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it's the same this time...

Source: Bloomberg

Just ask JPMorgan...

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/30/2024 - 16:00
https://ift.tt/i6v0F5J
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/i6v0F5J
via IFTTT

Yields JOLTed Higher, Stocks Lower Ahead Of Fed/Treasury

Can The Fed Cut Rates With Financial Conditions So Easy?

Via Global Macro Monitor,

The Fed’s attempt to tighten monetary policy is being cannibalized by the private sector’s accelerated easing of financial conditions through market-based financial instruments.  The following chart is simply stunning.   

Since the Fed began its monetary tightening campaign in March 2022, lifting rates from zero to 5 percent, overall national financial conditions have eased significantly, as measured by the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI). 

The NFCI  is an index of a weighted average of 105 market financial indicators that cover a wide spectrum of the financial system, including the money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. 

Our quick “blink” review of the NFCI, going back to early 1970s shows the Fed doesn’t start cutting rates until there is a spike in the NFCI, which, given the weights in the index, usually occur with an adverse credit event.

We believe this will be a major issue debated at the Tuesday/Wednesday FOMC meeting between the doves and the hawks, and will most likely result in some hawkish rhetoric coming from Mr. Powell’s post-meeting presser. 

Seat belts?  

Mr. Market is pricing close to a 50 probability of an interest rate cut in March. 

Zero chance, in our opinion,  if the markets continue on the merry way.

As always, we reserve the right to be wrong, as we often are.  

Stay frosty, folks. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/30/2024 - 15:25
https://ift.tt/DERJms7
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/DERJms7
via IFTTT

Can The Fed Cut Rates With Financial Conditions So Easy?

Fire Engulfs Massive Chicken Plant In Texas

Recall the surge of headlines in 2022 about mysterious fires at food processing plants.

At the same time, rogue elites, part of the World Economic Forum cult - pushed sinister narratives of how the working poor class must abandon "animal protein" for "insects" because the current food supply chain was contributing to climate change. Yet these elites, flying across the world in private jets and sailing on diesel-powered megayachts, is kosher?

The question many have for 2024: Will a series of mysterious fires erupt at food plants across the US while radical WEF elites continue their info campaign to 'reset' the food supply chain? 

According to BBC News, the first big fire of the year was reported at a large chicken farm in a rural part of Northeast Brazos County in Texas. 

Footage shared by photographer James Nowak with KBTX shows that the fire at Feather Crest Farms is burning on the south end near Democrat Road. Still no word on what started it.

🔴DETAILS --> https://t.co/yVA74bzp08 pic.twitter.com/DSzeXXxrQm

— 🚨 Rusty Surette 🚨 (@KBTXRusty) January 30, 2024

The blaze at Feather Crest Farms, located near Fickey Road east of Kurten, was reported shortly after 5 p.m. local time. Authorities stated on Monday night that it might take several days to extinguish the fire completely.

Ground footage shared by Jim Suydam with KBTX shows that the fire at Feather Crest Farms continues to burn into the night. Firefighters have come from other counties nearby to help out.

🔴DETAILS --> https://t.co/yVA74bzWPG pic.twitter.com/BMRMuASrZT

— 🚨 Rusty Surette 🚨 (@KBTXRusty) January 30, 2024

Last year, Tucker Carlson interviewed Dutch political activist Eva Vlaardingerbroek, who said, "I think that the push for insect eating is just a compliance test because our politicians know that when they control the food, they control the people." 

It's odd that WEF routinely advocates the urgent need to reset the food supply chain while commercial farms mysteriously ignite. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/30/2024 - 15:05
https://ift.tt/Ci2DU41
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Ci2DU41
via IFTTT

Fire Engulfs Massive Chicken Plant In Texas

White Minnesota Farmer Sues State Over Discriminatory Program

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Minnesota farmer is suing the state over an agricultural grant program that discriminates on the basis of race and sex.

Minnesota farmer Lance Nistler, shown in December 2023, is suing Minnesota over a a racially discriminatory grant program. (Courtesy Pacific Legal Foundation)

The program, called the Down Payment Assistance Grant Program, provides up to $15,000 in funding to help “emerging” farmers purchase farmland. It is administered by the Minnesota Department of Agriculture’s Rural Finance Authority.

Applicants must be Minnesota residents who have never owned a farm, earn less than $250,000 annually in gross agricultural sales, will farm the land for at least five years, and who will provide most of the labor and management of the farm.

According to the department, to be eligible, applicants must be women, veterans, disabled, American Indian or Alaskan Native, 35 or younger, urban, “members of a community of color,” individuals who are “lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex, or asexual (LGBTQIA+),” or “any other emerging farmers as determined by the commissioner.”

The plaintiff, Lance Nistler of Kelliher, Minnesota, is a white man who wants to purchase 40 acres of farmland in Beltrami County, Minnesota, for growing soybeans, oats, and wheat. He currently works on his relatives’ farm.

He complied with all eligibility requirements when he sought the grant. Out of 176 applicants, Lance was selected ninth in the grant lottery, but he was placed at the end of the list. Unknown to him at the time, the program put a premium on “emerging” farmers—as the department defines them—when awarding funds, regardless of lottery results, according to the Pacific Legal Foundation (PLF). The foundation, a Sacramento, California-based national public interest law firm that fights government abuses, is representing Mr. Nistler.

The state prioritizes grants to these emerging farmers, and any funding that remains may be awarded to non-emerging farmer applicants in the order of their lottery placement.

The legal complaint (pdf) in Nistler v. Walz was filed on Jan. 24 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota.

The defendants are Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Thom Peterson, commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Agriculture. Both men are being sued in their official capacities.

PLF attorney Andrew Quinio weighed in on the case.

“Minnesota believes Lance Nistler is less deserving of a farm because he has the wrong skin color and sex.

“It is unfair for the government to advantage or disadvantage anyone for benefits based on immutable characteristics like race and sex. Lance Nistler seeks to be treated equally with any other prospective farmer,” the lawyer said.

In an interview, Mr. Quinio said, “this is an egregious case of discrimination against a hard-working farmer who wanted the opportunity to buy his own farm through this down payment assistance grant.

“I think what makes this so egregious is the grant was within my client’s reach. Mr. Nistler was the ninth applicant drawn in the lottery. And then, because of the discriminatory criteria that the state implemented, basically rigging the system against him, his application was reshuffled to the back of the line because he’s not an emerging farmer … that is a racial minority, LGBTQ, [or] a woman farmer.”

He said the program, according to media outlets, was created “to address past discrimination,” but applicants “were never asked if they’ve been discriminated against in the past.”

“So we don’t know if anyone who’s actually been discriminated against has gotten grant funds,” he told The Epoch Times.

“The state’s just stereotyping people based on their skin color. And so they assume, because Mr. Nistler is a white male, that he’s less deserving of this grant money,” he said.

Mr. Quinio said he was optimistic about the lawsuit’s chances.

The grant program violates the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, he said.

“The state just does not have a compelling interest to use race, nor does it have an exceedingly persuasive justification to use sex or gender. And I think that the case will bear that out,” he said.

The attorney was referring to the strict scrutiny test that courts use when reviewing legislative or executive branch enactments that have a bearing on constitutional rights. A government interest is deemed compelling when it is essential or necessary, as opposed to a matter of preference, choice, or discretion.

“I think we have a very good chance of prevailing given the Supreme Court’s ruling last summer in Students for Fair Admission v. Harvard,” Mr. Quinio said.

The Harvard case concerned the use of racially discriminatory admissions policies in the nation’s colleges.

In the majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that for too long, universities have “concluded, wrongly, that the touchstone of an individual’s identity is not challenges bested, skills built, or lessons learned but the color of their skin.”

“Our constitutional history does not tolerate that choice,” he wrote. Harvard’s admissions programs “cannot be reconciled with the guarantees of the Equal Protection Clause.”

Mr. Quinio said the Supreme Court’s decision “could not be any clearer,” and Mr. Nistler’s case is “a clear case of discrimination.”

“Whether it is college admissions or grants for farmers, the government cannot discriminate,” he added.

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to the offices of the Minnesota governor and the Minnesota Department of Agriculture but had not received any replies as of press time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/29/2024 - 17:00
https://ift.tt/RxbpTwm
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/RxbpTwm
via IFTTT

White Minnesota Farmer Sues State Over Discriminatory Program

"Off-The-Rails Psychologically" - The Democratic Party Will Do Anything Avert Losing Control Of Govt

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

The Next Big Thing

“The reserve of trust, patience, and deference, among non-zombies in the USA, is now ZERO.”

- Jacob Dreizin

I’m sure you can see exactly where all this is going. By all this, I refer to the cortège of disasters orchestrated by “Joe Biden” and associates — with help from a power-crazed globalist cabal — hauling our country at a gallop now to the graveyard of empires. Is there any question that they are out to wreck Western Civ? And speeding up the action because too many actual citizens are rising to oppose their degenerate wickedness?

Most particularly, the people who have not surrendered their reason to the Woke-Marxist mind-fuck that calls itself “progressivism” have had enough of the purposeful inflow of something like ten-thousand fake asylum-seekers a day across the border, mostly men, a lot of them from China, and many more of them mutts from faraway lands where Jihad is the order of the day — meaning the crusade to exterminate the people of Western Civ. We’re supposed to be okay with that.

This deliberate, treasonous policy was rightfully declared an “invasion” last week by the Governor of Texas, requiring the human wave to be met with real force, not the welcome wagon that the federal border patrol has been turned into. The result so far is a real-live Mexican stand-off between the regime in Washington and the state of Texas, joined by twenty-five other sympathetic US states willing to send men and material to seal the border.

None of this is reported in Monday morning’s New York Times, by the way, though you can read Is Dying Your Hair Bad for Your Health there. Nor will you read about the caravan of American truckers striking out from all points around the country to “peacefully protest and pray” at the border while Texas attempts to settle its hash with “Joe Biden.” Nor will you read about the uprising of European farmers blocking highways to protest ruinous EU rules on food imports, diesel fuel prices, carbon emissions inanity, and, of course, the officially-enabled tide of Africans and jihadists flooding into EU member states.

“Joe Biden’s” response so far is to say he’ll attend to the border situation only if Congress green-lights another massive aid package for Ukraine, a dishonest proffer from any angle. Ukraine is a lost cause that should never have been a cause of ours in the first place. Yet securing the US border is a principal duty of the executive branch, not some optional fringe benefit to be used as leverage for other projects. Congress has already got impeachment articles ready for Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas, who has lied repeatedly under oath about the border being “secure.” But it’s obviously not enough. The failure is entirely “Joe Biden’s” and warrants his impeachment on its face, aside from all the evidence of bribery and racketeering among him and his family.

The best move would be to impeach both the president and his proclaimed “border czar” Veep Kamala Harris — which would put Speaker Mike Johnson in the oval office. But the impeachment process is too slow and awkward for that. So, now I will tell you where all this is actually going: “Joe Biden” will seize an excuse to declare a national emergency and subject the US to some manner of martial law.

The excuse could be an outbreak of violence in the quarrel between the states and the feds over the border. Or it could be a widening of the war in the Middle East, a direct confrontation with Iran that would draw in Russia and Turkey and kickoff World War Three, a war we would have an excellent shot at losing, considering our DEI-ravaged, over-vaxxed army, our obsolete naval carrier groups that can be sunk by hypersonic missiles, and our depleted reserves of armaments already fobbed off by Ukraine and, lately, given to Israel in the Gaza campaign to destroy Hamas. If such a war didn’t set off a world-ending exchange of nukes, it would at least collapse the economies of Europe and America and, with that, many governments, including possibly ours. And what role might all those recently-arrived illegal aliens play in such a fiasco? Any way you cut it, we’d be in for chaos and hardship.

Or, if we somehow avert major war, “Joe Biden” can try the national emergency ploy when the much-heralded (by the WHO) “Disease X” trots onstage. (And we must ask whether that will just be a delayed side-effect of the mRNA vaccine deaths?) Ultimately, the purpose of any national emergency at this moment in history, whatever prompts it, will be to suspend the 2024 elections. The Democratic Party has gone so completely off-the-rails psychologically that it will do anything to avert losing control of the government.

The Lawfare cases aimed at knocking Donald Trump off the game-board were assigned to corrupt and stupid prosecutors who are botching their jobs in perfect sequence. They are already baking the cake for Fani Willis’s farewell office party in Georgia, and Jack Smith is being undermined daily by the emergent truth about government’s role in fomenting the J6 riot. The ridiculous judgment rendered last week in the E. Jean Carroll defamation charade, is certain to be reversed on appeal. Note the assembled tweets below attributed to Ms. Carroll’s “X” account and draw your own conclusions about her character, especially her sexual proclivities. (By the way, Judge Lewis Kaplan ruled them inadmissible as evidence for Mr. Trump’s defense.)

Now, where the next national emergency or some kind of martial law is concerned, the catch is that at least half of America will refuse to comply with diktats coming out of Blob Central.

They’ve had enough trips laid on them. The government has been flirting dangerously with the loss of legitimacy as the disastrous “Joe Biden” term grinds on, but this would really ice it.

Whatever other tragic consequences follow, it would be the end of our constitutional republic, and history will install “Joe Biden” in the Hall of Infamy as the man who killed it.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/29/2024 - 16:20
https://ift.tt/1Kwanvt
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/1Kwanvt
via IFTTT

"Off-The-Rails Psychologically" - The Democratic Party Will Do Anything Avert Losing Control Of Govt

Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin All Rip As Catalyst-Heavy Week Begins

Quiet macro day today a collapse in Texas Manufacturing the only significant domestic data (but Treasury's QRA, part 1 the most noteworthy ahead of tomorrow's actual announcement), and that was evident in rate-cut expectations being hugely unchanged...

Source: Bloomberg

And the lack of news was enough to allow a 'buy all the things' narrative to continue with Treasury's QRA suggested lower supply expectations.

Bonds were bid across the curve with the belly outperforming (short-end least bought)...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied back to the highs after the QRA...

Source: Bloomberg

...as the dollar declined...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ripped higher, topping $43,000 back at two-week highs...

Source: Bloomberg

As GBTC outflows are trending lower and Friday saw net inflows...

Source: Bloomberg

And of course, stocks drifted higher all day - as they do - but then jumped notably higher on the AQR supply report...

Source: Bloomberg

With MAG7 stocks accelerating after the AQR up to new record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

And 'most shorted' stocks were squeezed hard (up to last week's highs)...

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, with everything else rallying, there had to be something to sell... and it was crude oil (because, yeah, the middle-east is much calmer today)...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, Nasdaq melted up even more today, but the rest of the week has plenty of hurdles...

Source: Bloomberg

Will the Dotcom bubble analog hold for a dip to be bought?

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/29/2024 - 16:00
https://ift.tt/ncoZK08
from ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/ncoZK08
via IFTTT

Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin All Rip As Catalyst-Heavy Week Begins