FBI Director Patel To Take Over ATF Too - Will He Burn It To The Ground?
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FBI Director Patel To Take Over ATF Too - Will He Burn It To The Ground?

Leftists were already apoplectic that Donald Trump managed to install firebrand Kash Patel as FBI director. Now, upping the ante, Trump is about to turn the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) over to Patel too, according to sources cited by multiple news outlets on Saturday evening. The extraordinary move has some wondering if Trump might move to dissolve the ATF altogether. 

Gun Owners of America has lauded Patel as being "fiercely pro-gun." However, during his confirmation hearings, Patel skirted direct questioning about whether civilians should be allowed to own machine guns, or whether background checks are constitutional, saying, "Whatever the courts rule in regards to the Second Amendment is what is protected by the Second Amendment."  

The ATF is already the focus of a Trump II overhaul. Last week, Attorney General Pam Bondi fired the ATF's top lawyer, Pamela Hicks. "These people were targeting gun owners. Not gonna happen under this administration,” Bondi told Fox News. The FBI and ATF both reside within the Department of Justice.

Patel may be sworn in as acting director of the ATF this week, a Justice official told AP. The agency has roughly 5,500 employees -- today, at least. With Trump's Department of Government Efficiency looking to slash the federal employment rolls, the ATF should be a prime target for headcount reduction. 

The 1993 federal government massacre of innocents at Waco started with an ATF raid over dubious suspicions that the Branch Davidians were stockpiling prohibited weapons

Better yet, many are hoping -- and others fearing -- that putting the ATF in Patel's portfolio could signal that the ultimate objective is to dismantle it. That would be a bold move for a president who comes into his second term with a decidedly spotty record where the right to armed self-defense is concerned. 

  • Trump embraced "red flag" laws that empower police to seize firearms from people they deem dangerous, without due process. In 2018, Trump infamously told reporters, "Take the firearms first, and then go to court...I like taking the guns early...Take the guns first, go through due process second." 
  • Exceeding its authority, his first-term ATF imaginatively reinterpreted the definition of an automatic weapon to include bump stocks, banned their sale, and demanded that civilians turn them in the ones they already owned. 
  • Trump promised to push for increasing the legal age for purchasing firearms to 18.

That said, Trump's second term is off to a strong start on the gun rights front. On Feb 7, Trump signed an executive order that sought to curtail federal infringements on rights guaranteed by the Second Amendment. Among other things, the multifaceted order directed Bondi to:

  • Catalogue and address all actions of the Biden administration that infringed on gun rights
  • Reverse the heavy-handed "zero tolerance" or "enhanced regulatory enforcement policy” by which enforcement actions against Federal Firearms Licensees (FFL's) -- many of them small businesses --skyrocketed nearly six-fold. 
  • Review how firearms and ammunition are categorized and thus regulated
Vicki Weaver before she was shot in the head in the 1992 Ruby Ridge standoff that started when the ATF entrapped her husband into illegally shortening the length of a shotgun barrel

Rightly resented by liberty-minded Americans, the ATF has played central roles in some of the most ghastly crimes committed by the federal government in recent decades, from the ATF entrapment of Randy Weaver that led to the killing of his 14-year-old son and his wife as she held their 10-month-old daughter, to the standoff in Waco that ended in the mass slaughter of 76 Branch Davidians, including 25 children.   

Like the vast majority of the federal government, there's no constitutional authority for the ATF to exist in the first place. As the old joke goes, "Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms should be a convenience store, not a government agency." Here's hoping that wry aspiration become reality. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/23/2025 - 18:05
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More USAID Fraud? Billions Of US Tax Dollars Are Missing From Haiti Relief Projects
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More USAID Fraud? Billions Of US Tax Dollars Are Missing From Haiti Relief Projects

There are those that say all government aid is a scam in one way or another, and so far the revelations surrounding USAID are proving those people right daily.  Democrats and the establishment media, in a bid to muddy the waters and save face, continue to claim that there was never any fraud at USAID and that the Trump Administration is simply labeling projects they "disagree with" as suspect. 

Of course, spending American tax dollars on projects the public never asked for and were never told about is the epitome of fraud, and waste is never a good thing.  Beyond that, the question of billions in missing funds certainly falls into the category of criminality. 

Trump has taken a lot of heat from the media with the shut down of USAID and much of the criticism suggests that without US funds people in third world countries will fall back into desperation.  The Washington Post recently claimed that Trump's cuts to USAID are a "gift to Haitian gangs" terrorizing the locals; a typical leftist appeal to emotion that assumes most of the funds were getting to the Haitians in the first place. 

Yet another example of this problem has been revealed in a New York Post expose on the audit of USAID which shows a disturbing shortfall in funds surrounding ongoing relief projects in Haiti.  The Post notes:

"Since the 2010 earthquake in Haiti killed as many as 300,000 people, the US government has disbursed around $4.4 billion in foreign assistance to the small island nation.

At least $1.5 billion was disbursed for immediate humanitarian aid, while another $3 billion went to recovery, reconstruction and development.

Of the at least $2.13 billion in contracts and grants for Haiti-related work, less than $50 million, or 2% went to Haitian organizations or firms. By comparison, $1.3 billion, or 56%, has gone to firms located in or near the US capitol. Little wonder USAID is so threatened by the sudden scrutiny.

It remains unclear how exactly the billions have been spent and whether US tax dollars have had a sustainable impact. USAID and its vendors have generally failed to make such data public..."

The exposure of USAID by DOGE actually confirms long running suspicions of mishandled aid.  Some Haitian reporters warned about this disappearing money years ago under the Obama Administration.  USAID funds to Haiti were dispersed in part through the Clinton Foundation. 

The lack of funding transparency was also noted by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) in 2023.  Though, not surprisingly, the impotent agency did nothing about it.  The GOA stated in their analysis of USAID activities in Haiti: 

"The USAID mission in Haiti does not fully track data on its local partnerships, or its activities to strengthen local organizational capacity, which limits institutional knowledge about these efforts and understanding of results and lessons learned to inform future activities."

"The Administrator of USAID should ensure that USAID/Haiti develops a process to track and assess consistent and complete results information for infrastructure activities, such as the final outputs, outcomes, costs, time frames, and lessons learned."

"The Administrator of USAID should ensure that USAID/Haiti establishes a process to completely and consistently track and analyze data on awards made to local organizations, such as the amount and percent of total funding awarded and the percent of total awards provided to these organizations."

Of the five "recommendations for executive action" put forward by the GAO for USAID, two are marked as "completed".  Transparency was never achieved and no one was held accountable.  The question is, if only 2% of the $4.4 billion allotted for Haitian relief was actually used in Haiti, where did the rest of the money go?

As the New York Post points out, 56% went to firms located in or near the US capitol, and apparently the money stayed there.  A comprehensive forensic accounting of these funds (along with all other missing funds) needs to be undertaken and tracked to the recipients.  Not just because it is is politically advantageous for the Trump Administration, but because justice needs to be served for once in the case of government fraud.  Americans are tired of seeing bureaucratic conmen get away with it. 

The public is welcome to debate whether or not any American taxes should be spent in Haiti (proximity to the US does not mean they are entitled), but if the money was already sent and it never arrived, then whoever took it stole from both sides of the equation - Americans and Haitians. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/23/2025 - 16:55
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Ashley St. Snare? Laura Loomer Goes Scorched Earth On Musk's Baby Mama As 'Seduce Elon' Text Emerges
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Ashley St. Snare? Laura Loomer Goes Scorched Earth On Musk's Baby Mama As 'Seduce Elon' Text Emerges

Warning: Bail now on this post if you don't give two shits about the whole Elon Musk baby controversy. If you do, grab some popcorn (and some ZH Coffee or a Multitool - both with deals ending soon), because this is getting wild.

Here's the latest...

'Conservative influencer' Ashley St. Clair (26) claimed last week that she had secretly given birth to Elon Musk's 13th child. Yet, after various receipts began trickling out suggesting the tryst was a targeted operation, things began to get ugly.

On Friday, St. Clair filed a petition to legally recognize Musk as her child's father and seek full custody. According to the paternity suit filed in the New York Supreme Court (for which she tried to serve Musk at the White House), St. Clair alleges that she and Musk got into a romantic relationship in May 2023, and conceived said love child in January 2024 in St. Barts. Read more on the paternity suit here.

It Gets Uglier

In response to the controversy, journalist Laura Loomer dropped several bombshells.

1) St. Clair has retained an anti-Trump lawyer to go after Musk...

Dror Bikel @Drorbikel, the lawyer hired by @stclairashley to sue @elonmusk for custody of their child, is an Israeli, ANTI-TRUMP lawyer who is a former foreign judicial clerk for the Supreme Court of Israel. Dror Bikel has a long history of attacking @elonmusk, President Trump and Trump lawyer @RudyGiuliani.

The Israeli lawyer once wrote a book called “The 1 % Divorce: When Titans Clash” that has an entire chapter dedicated to President Trump’s divorces. Dror used his Trump hatred to promote his book sales. The book was published in 2020.

Loomer asks: 

  • "Is @elonmusk potentially being targeted by a possible Israeli intelligence operation?"
  • "How long has Ashley St. Clair been planning her attack on Trump admin official @elonmusk?"

2) Loomer suggests St. Clair - who said she never wanted media attention over this, coordinated with the NY Post to run an anti-Elon smear campaign.

And now the Post is sniffing around...

3) St. Clair has previously stated that a man "should be able to opt out" of child support if he doesn't want the child, and that "family court is the most evil institution ever."

"Seduce Elon"

Now things get even more interesting - as another influencer, Isabella Moody, posted what she claims are text messages with St. Clair from May 2023 in which she says "Look, ill take one for the team, seduce elon, and get in a rocket to see what's up."

Via @IsabellaIsMoody

To which Musk replied "Whoa!"

Stay tuned for more...

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Previewing Sunday's Critical German Election: All You Need To Know
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Previewing Sunday's Critical German Election: All You Need To Know

We previously previewed tomorrow's German election in an extensive article (see "Everything You Need To Know About The Upcoming German Election") but with so much at stake, with Elon now going all in...

... and with the situation more fluid by the day...

Source:
Polymarket

... it's time for a quick reassessment of where we stand (we summarize various reports from DB, Goldman and Bloomberg).

1. Executive Summary

Polls, coalition options and potential impact on policies

  • Polls: The conservative CDU/CSU is leading the polls with 31 followed by the far right AfD at around 21 the Social Democrats at 15 and the Greens at 13%. A lot of attention will be on whether the three smaller parties (FDP, BSW, Left) make it into parliament
  • Timeline: First projections based on exit polls after 6 pm CET on February 23 preliminary results from 6 30 pm CET on and then updated during the night/early morning
  • Coalition formation: Coalition negotiations might take several weeks as they require some difficult compromises 

Coalition options

  • Base case - two party grand coalition: Polls suggest that the Conservatives could form a coalition government with either the SPD or the Greens A CDU/CSU SPD coalition appears more likely as polls suggest it could achieve a more comfortable majority On defence/foreign policy, there are significant policy overlaps with the Greens
  • Surprise - three party centrist coalition - “Kenya”(CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens) or “Germany”(CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP). On the one hand, a three party coalition could prove to be rather fractious and result in fraught policy compromises On the other hand, a “ coalition might increase the chance of a meaningful shift in fiscal policy if centrist parties kept the two thirds majority 

What’s are the risks?

  • Downside risk - blocking minority of fringe parties (AfD & BSW): This would imply that constitutional change for setting up an off budget defense/infrastructure fund/debt brake reform is contingent on concessions to the fringe parties or not possible at all
  • Absolute tail risk - AfD as part of the government: Extremely high bar to be crossed all parties credibly rule out that option ex ante

Potential impact on policies

  • Fiscal policy pivot towards higher spending - The perceived erosion of Europe's security architecture makes it likely for the new government to swiftly agree on funding higher defence spending outside the debt brake. The fiscal impulse could be material However, the short term growth multiplier should not be overestimated, with the bulk of military procurement going abroad Debt brake reform for the Länder might provide additional and more immediate fiscal stimulus from 2026 onwards
  • Compromises on structural reforms - A CDU/CSU led coalition could potentially agree on a step by step reduction of the corporate tax burden, streamlined administrative processes, and measures to lower electricity prices, but no major pension reform 

How much of the election is already factored into our forecasts?

  • For 2025, Deutsche Bank expects the economy to grow by 0.5%. The bank's 2026 forecast is predicated on a meaningful probability that the next government relaxes the constitution debt brake to allow more debt financed investment. Without it, the status quo would imply structural stagnation

2. Backround

  • A deeply divided coalition government in Berlin has failed to take the hard decisions needed to turn Germany’s economy around. The snap election on Feb 23. is therefore a chance for voters to deliver a stronger government capable of tackling the country’s pressing problems.
  • The main danger is that the poll yields another fragmented parliament. This could leave a power vacuum at the heart of Europe during a particularly challenging time and, eventually, result in a government that is too weak to implement much-needed reform. Furthermore, much of the proposed fiscal stimulus emanating out of Germany has already been priced into European stocks, so a "tail" outcome tomorrow could have a major adverse impact on European markets.
  • The greater the number of parties that enter parliament, the higher the risk that the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) have too few seats to form a grand coalition.
  • Policy uncertainty is already through the roof in Germany and this is weighing on growth as companies delay investment decisions. The more time it takes to form a coalition, the greater the delay in kickstarting an economic recovery.
  • The duration of coalition talks will also show how willing parties are to overcome their differences to tackle urgent issues such as structurally weak growth, a potential US-Russia deal on Ukraine and a transatlantic trade war.
  • Polling stations will close on Sunday at 6:00 pm Berlin time. Sufficient clarity about the election results should emerge during the evening. The CDU/CSU alliance is set to win, according to opinion polls. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) would have to close a 10-percentage-point gap to defeat the center-right parties.  
  • Barring any surprises, CDU leader Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor. However, the CDU/CSU alliance is unlikely to have enough seats to lead a cabinet on its own, which means it will have to form a coalition with other parties.
  • Merz has repeatedly declared he will not cut a deal with the AfD. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) isn’t seen as a suitable partner, since it will probably not have enough seats to make a difference — it might even struggle to make it into the Bundestag (national parliament).
  • The most obvious option for Merz is to form a coalition with either the SPD, the Greens, or both. The ideological distance between the Greens and the CDU on social issues such as migration remains large, which means it might be easier for him to cut a deal with the social democrats.
  • Still, much will depend on the distribution of seats in parliament. The more parties enter the Bundestag, the higher the risk that the CDU/CSU and the SPD might not have enough seats to form a government by themselves.

3. Timeline:

Timeline for the Bundestag election 2025: What will happen from voting until government formation

4. Polls

Germany heading towards new leadership? Conservatives are leading the polls, while the right wing AfD and Left gained further support

Accuracy of polls seems reasonably good: Far right AfD seems not to be systematically underestimated in polls

What is driving voters’ decisions? State of the economy is more important for voters’ decisions than immigration

5. Electoral System

Germany‘s mixed electoral system demystified: Peculiarities of the voting system might have an impact on the election outcome

Postal voting has started two weeks ago: Increasingly popular option among German voters

6. Coalition Formation

Zooming in on coalition negotiations: Coalition agreement in spring might provide psychological boost to confidence

Preview of potential coalition options: Conservatives likely to lead the next government according to current polls

7. Policy Outcomes

CDU/CSU - SPD or CDU/CSU - Green coalition - agree to disagree? Where do ex ante policy stances differ?

Potential impact of CDU/CSU policies on the economy: More supply-side policies, but still fiscal hawkishness

Economic policy implications: Fiscal policy pivoting towards higher defence spending

The fiscal defence policy nexus: Smaller parties not necessarily standing in the way of constitutional reform

Constitutional majorities and fiscal regime change: The more fragmentation, the less likely a fiscal regime shift

Zeitenwende 2.0 moment in defence spending: Pivot towards higher defence spending early in the next parliamentary term

Fiscal regime change - a cheat sheet for potential options: Policy options, needed majorities and potential timelines

Germany’s stance on joint EU borrowing: How to fund the VdL 2.0 policy priorities

8. Economic Outlook

How much of the election outcome is already factored into DB's forecasts? A meaningful relaxation of the debt brake is not part of the 2025 baseline forecasts

9. Much-Needed Reforms

  • A stable coalition would also strengthen Germany’s ability to respond to a long list of pressing economic challenges and thus, support growth in the medium and long term. Germany has to improve its productivity and revive competitiveness while at the same time deal with the threat of high US tariffs and the requirement to boost defense spending.  
  • What all these challenges have in common is that they will likely end up costing a lot of money. The good news is that, in principle, Germany would have the necessary fiscal leeway. According to our estimates, it could raise public investment spending by 1% of GDP in the coming years and the debt-to-GDP ratio would still fall until 2040 and settle below the 60% mark.
  • One main thing to watch is whether the parties that favor a reform of the very strict national fiscal rule, the so-called debt brake, will have the necessary two-third majority in parliament to deliver the required constitutional revision. Conversely, a very fragmented parliament would undermine the ability of the centrist parties to revise the current borrowing limit.

10. Tail Risks

What’s in the tails? Surprises, downside and extreme tail risks

Scenarios for a blocking minority of the far right AfD: Would require significant shift of approval rates and no small party entering the Bundestag

11. Challenges to Forming a Government

  • The country’s political fragmentation means that negotiations to form a coalition might not be straightforward. CDU’s Merz has shown during the campaign that he wants to move more to the right on migration.
  • That’s further away from the SPD’s stance and in order to make any deal with Merz more palatable to its electorate, the social democrats will try to extract as much as possible (for instance on economic issues) during negotiations.
  • Recent elections show coalition negotiations have taken a substantially long time to wrap up. However, the bleak economic situation and uncertain geopolitics might provide an incentive for parties to accelerate discussions. In fact, how long it takes to form a government will indicate how willing parties are to work together to deal with Germany’s impending challenges.
  • A minority government or new elections would be the available options if coalition negotiations were to fail. However, parties would likely try to avoid a repeat poll given voters might punish them for failing to form a government.

12. Election of the Federal Chancellor: Usually just a formality

More in the full presentation available to pro subscribers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 02/22/2025 - 18:05
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Netanyahu Vows Revenge On Hamas for Returning Wrong Body: 'Unspeakably Cynical'
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Netanyahu Vows Revenge On Hamas for Returning Wrong Body: 'Unspeakably Cynical'

One of the four deceased hostages handed over by Hamas on Thursday was the wrong body, according to an Israeli government forensics investigation. As part of phase one of the ceasefire deal several rounds of hostage releases have occurred successfully.

Hamas agreed to release the body of slain hostage Shiri Bibas and her two young deceased children. "Following the identification process at the Institute of Forensic Medicine, we received this morning the news we had dreaded — our Shiri was murdered in captivity and has now returned home to her sons, husband, sister, and all her family for rest," the family said in an initial statement.

However, outrage in Israel has ensued after it was revealed that the casket marked with Shiri's remains was actually an unidentified deceased person.

Via Sky News, Israeli media

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday that Israel would make Hamas pay for failing to return Shiri's remains.

"We will act with determination to bring Shiri home along with all our hostages — both living and dead — and ensure Hamas pays the full price for this cruel and evil violation of the agreement," he said in a video statement.

Israel says the body is likely that of an unidentified Palestinian woman, after the two young sons, Kfir and Ariel were handed over and identified.

Netanyahu blasted Hamas for acting "in an unspeakably cynical manner" by placing the body of a Gaza woman in the coffin instead of Shiri. Her husband Yarden had also been kidnapped from a kibbutz in southern Israel on Oct.7 - but was released in the first exchange of this current truce deal.

NBC details, "Hamas leader Mahmoud Mardawi told media outlet Al Arabiya that Bibas' remains had now been returned, and the International Red Cross said that it has received a set of human remains and transferred them to Israeli officials."

According to a statement: 

In announcing that testing showed the first remains were not that of Shiri Bibas, the IDF said the remains also did not match any other hostage held by Hamas. “It is an anonymous body without identification,” it said.

Hamas has not commented on the charge, but did follow through with the agreed upon Saturday exchange, which saw the release of the last six living Israeli hostages in return for Israel freeing nearly 500 Palestinians from Israeli prisons.

The ceasefire will ender phase two, but it's anything but certain whether the truce will hold, given the growing accusations. Hamas has said the Israel has killed some 100 Palestinians even while the ceasefire was on.

Tyler Durden Sat, 02/22/2025 - 16:20
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