Federal Bureaucrats (Outside The Pentagon And US Post Office) Are Paid Some $576 Million Per Day

Submitted by Adam Andrzejewski, author of OpenTheBooks substack

Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com recently determined from official Federal Freedom of Information Act filings that we pay Beltway bureaucrats in the federal executive agencies outside of the Defense Department and the U.S. Post Office some $576 million per day.

That’s more than $210 billion per year for the 1.44 million employees of 125 rank-and-file general administrative, civil enforcement and federal law enforcement agencies.

Economic uncertainty might surround many taxpayers, but for federal workers, we are funding lavish and perk-filled lifestyles.

In 109 of the 125 federal agencies in Washington, the average employee salary is more than $100,000.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average real median wage for the average employee was $54,339 in 2021.

The average salary at the Census Bureau is $67,656. That’s just a small example of the ‘private-sector’ versus ‘public-sector’ pay disparity.

GRAPHIC: Unfortunately, President Donald Trump didn’t drain the swamp and President Joe Biden has put the growth on steroids. These are agencies outside of the Pentagon and Post Office.

After working just three years for the federal government, employees have 44 days of paid time off. Can you skip work for nine weeks and still have a job?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average number of paid vacation days for U.S. workers is 11 days, or a day more than two weeks.

Furthermore, most federal employees worked from home for years due to the recently concluded Covid “emergency.” Congress incentivized this with a $570 million “paid-to-stay home” fund at Treasury. If your child wasn’t back to school, you could collect $21,000 over 15 weeks in paid family leave.

Congressional testimony shows Office of Personnel Management Director Kiran Ahuja still has no clue how many federal employees returned, or where the people we pay actually do their jobs.

(Watch the answer starting at 3:00.)

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, normally a staunch ally of the Biden Administration, had to call for getting federal employees back to work to revive the city’s economy.

President Biden suggested he would soon ask workers to report for duty, but many desks remain empty because “flexibility” still prevails.

Then, President Biden asked for the biggest pay raise in more than 40 years. His 2023 budget includes a 5.2% pay hike for the 1.4 million executive agency employees.

We all had to pay our taxes when they were due a few weeks ago. For many federal employees, that rule is being flouted.

In March 2023, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration found that “The number of delinquent Federal civilian employees has increased by 32 percent from Fiscal Years (FY) 2015 to 2021.” Some 149,000 federal employees owe $1.5 billion in back taxes!

In the private sector, pay is typically associated with performance. But in the federal government, performance appears not to figure into the compensation equation.

Take the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). We were all reminded of its importance earlier this year with the implosions of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The FDIC is there to insure depositors for up to $250,000, helping Americans trust that the banking system is reliable.

Well, there are 58,000 employees at the FDIC—many of them auditors. Average salary? $160,000. None of them seemed to notice stress on the banking system. The two banks that failed were highly regarded institutions. But in fact, they had veered away from solvency.

One might ask if we taxpayers – who will pick up the tab for this debacle according to the Administration’s plan -- are getting what they we are paying for at the FDIC?

Such disparities between pay and performance, and they are legion, are making an impact in Congress. Senator Joni Ernst (R.-Iowa) has joined our organization at OpenTheBooks.com in demanding answers to three questions that should be simple: Who is working? Where are they? What on Earth are they doing for us?

As recent testimony by OPM Director Ahuja shows, the feds just don’t want us to know.

For example, unlike its predecessors, the Biden Administration has redacted key information on federal workers.

In the Biden Administration 2022 payroll, 350,861 worker names are redacted. Under the Obama Administration, in FY 2016, that figure was 2,300. Stunning.

The administration has also redacted 281,656 worker locations.

Our auditors estimate some $36 billion worth of taxpayer-funded salary, benefits and bonuses are hidden from Americans. Even worse, they are headed to mystery people in mystery locations.

That means no scrutiny of performance versus pay. It means no oversight by Congress. It means no chance to cut bloat during the budget process.

We don’t know who these workers are, what they do, where they work, or how much each of them makes.

Like Senator Ernst, we plan to find out. At $576 million per day, it’s time we knew.

Additional details found at Newsweek in a co-authored editorial “Where’s Waldo At Club Fed” with U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst and Adam Andrzejewski, CEO, OpenTheBooks.com.

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Federal Bureaucrats (Outside The Pentagon And US Post Office) Are Paid Some $576 Million Per Day

World's Top Buyer Of LNG Warns Of Another Price Spike

The northern hemisphere experienced higher-than-average temperatures this past winter, which helped alleviate energy crunches and sent liquefied natural gas prices tumbling from record-high levels. Now the world's largest gas buyer expects another price spike this year. 

In an interview with Bloomberg, Yukio Kani, the chairman and CEO of Jera Co., expressed his concerns about another potential surge in LNG prices, attributing this to the increasing import capacity in Europe and China, along with potential severe weather risks.

Here's part of the interview:

This winter, with import capacity in Europe rising and China potentially increasing demand after it ended pandemic restrictions, prices could spike again if severe weather strikes, he said. There's no opportunity for buyers to "let their guards down," Kani said.

Jera, a venture between Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings Inc. and Chubu Electric Power Co., announced on Friday that it agreed to a 20-year deal to buy LNG from Venture Global LNG Inc.'s proposed terminal in Louisiana. While the company expects Japanese LNG demand to decline over the next decade, it could surprise by staying flat as more data centers and semiconductor factories are built, Kani said.

"Those two facilities guzzle electricity, making it hard to read the demand outlook," he said.

Jera is also working to support Japan's plans to use ammonia and hydrogen to decarbonize existing thermal power plants. The strategy has gotten pushback from other countries, most recently at the Group of Seven energy and environment ministers meeting. --Bloomberg 

Kani's comments come as Asian spot LNG futures are down 83.5% from last September's high, touching lows not seen summer of 2021. 

On the other side of the world, US NatGas and European NatGas futures are hovering at multi-year lows. 

Kani's prediction of severe weather could be linked to the likely return of the El Nino climate phenomenon this year, which may contribute to higher global temperatures and a subsequent rise in cooling demand, resulting in an increased need for gas. Additionally, as Europe rejiggers its energy supply chain away from Russia and relies more on US LNG shipments, supplies may face further tightening. Moreover, an uptick in China's economic recovery could also boost LNG demand. 

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World's Top Buyer Of LNG Warns Of Another Price Spike

There Were 70 Major Bankruptcies In Just 4 Months This Year

By Mish Shedlock of Mishtalk

For 2009 there were 118 bankruptcies through April. In Covid-impacted 2020, there were 71 bankruptcies. In 2023 there have been 70.

This is the third worst start to the year since 2000. Here's the Tweet.

2023 Bankruptcy Spotlight 

• Bed Bath & Beyond: April 2023: Home goods, baby goods
• David’s Bridal: Date: April 2023: Bridal apparel
• Boxed: April 2023: An e-commerce platform selling wholesale consumer goods
• Independent Pet Partners: February 2023: Pet supplies
• Tuesday Morning: February 2023: Discount home goods
• Serta Simmons Bedding: January 2023: Bedding and accessories
• Party City: January 2023: Party supplies
• Forma Brands: January 2023: Beauty products 

The bankruptcy spotlight list is condensed from a detailed report by CBInsights. 

Spotlight Bed Bath and Beyond

NBC reports Bed Bath and Beyond Prepares for Store Closings

"Thank you to all of our loyal customers," Bed Bath & Beyond said in a message posted to social media on Monday. "We have made the difficult decision to begin winding down our operations. Bed Bath & Beyond and buybuy BABY stores remain open to serve you."

According to the retailer's website, "deep discount" store closing sales are expected to begin in stores and online beginning Wednesday, and "all purchases during our store closing sales will be final."

According to the retailer, Bed Bath & Beyond websites, along with 360 brick-and-mortar stores and 120 buybuy BABY locations will "remain open and continue serving customers as the Company begins its efforts to effectuate the closure of its retail locations."

In Illinois, only eight Bed Bath & Beyond stores remain open, along with five buybuy BABY stores. Earlier this year, Bed Bath & Beyond announced closures of 19 stores across Illinois, many of them in the Chicago area.

Deep Discounts, No Coupons

Bed Bath and Beyond is no longer accepting coupons. Gift cards and loyalty certificates are still valid. All sales are final. 

Spotlight David’s Bridal 

CNN reports One in four brides wear David’s Bridal to their wedding. Now, it’s filing for bankruptcy

“An increasing number of brides are opting for less traditional wedding attire, including thrift wedding dresses,” David’s Bridal said in a bankruptcy filing. “These shifting consumer preferences have significantly exacerbated” the company’s financial crunch.

“The demand for formal wedding dresses, bridesmaid dresses, and related accessories has decreased substantially in the current environment,” the company said in its filing.

David’s Bridal will keep its nearly 300 stores and website operating and fulfill all customer orders as it searches for a buyer for the company. It will also honor gift cards, returns and exchanges. But if David’s Bridal is not able to find a buyer, it could have to close all stores and liquidate.

The company has around 10,000 full and part-time employees, but last week it said it was laying off 9,000 workers.

David’s Bridal, the successor to a bridal retailing business that began as a single bridal salon in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, in 1950, said approximately 25% of brides in the United States wear one of its gowns at their wedding.

Nonstore Retail Sales as Percent of Advance Retail Sales

Data from Commerce Department, chart by Mish.

To create the chart I subtracted food, gasoline, motor vehicles, and items one does not normally buy online, then took the nonstore percentage of what remained. 

Not only have consumer preferences shifted on what people buy, preferences have shifted in the way people buy. 

The percentage of shopping online has been steadily rising but the Covid pandemic goosed the trend. It's about four percentage points above the prior trend. 

Amazon was the big beneficiary. It explains Amazon's earnings report. Nonetheless, not all is well with Amazon.

Amazon Layoffs

On April 26, Geekwire reported Latest round of Amazon layoffs begins today, impacting AWS and human resources

Amazon began notifying Amazon Web Services and human resources employees impacted by its latest round of layoffs on Wednesday, as the company continues to trim headcount to cut costs.

The layoffs are part of the 9,000-person corporate workforce reduction announced by the company in March. The cuts mostly affect AWS, human resources (which Amazon calls PXT, for People Experience and Technology), Amazon Advertising, and Twitch.

Amazon in January announced a 18,000-person layoff, the largest in the Seattle company’s history. The additional 9,000 layoffs bring the total to 27,000 job cuts, about 8% of Amazon’s corporate workforce, which previously numbered around 350,000 people.

The company has trimmed back and eliminated several products, services, and entire businesses over the past year to help cut expenses, including its Scout neighborhood delivery robots, its Amazon Care primary healthcare business, bricks-and-mortar Amazon bookstores, and others. Amazon said Wednesday that it was shutting down its Halo health devices and service.

M2 Money Supply Declines 8 Straight Months, ODL Down 12 Straight Months

On April 12, I commented Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment. Also note M2 Money Supply Declines 8 Straight Months, ODL Down 12 Straight Months.

The economy is slowing fast. A rise in unemployment will follow,

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There Were 70 Major Bankruptcies In Just 4 Months This Year

New California Gold Rush Coming As Record Snowpack Melts

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Gold isn’t raining from the sky in California, but it might be flooding into the rivers by summer.

Tourists are seen panning gold during a tour with the California Gold Panning. (Courtesy of Nick Prebalick)

“Nugget Nick” Prebalick expects the record snowpack in northern California to deposit even more gold in Woods Creek in Tuolumne County, where he shares a claim with his father and son near Jamestown. The family has been offering tours to those who want to experience gold mining and learn about the history of the gold rush in the state.

“I’m already finding more gold,” Prebalick told The Epoch Times. “I’ve been finding gold every tour.”

The Prebalicks, who own California Gold Panning, usually find about an ounce of gold a day when they take guests to pan for nuggets on their claim. The most he and his father have found was 127 ounces in one day.

(L-R) Nick Prebalick, Nathania Prebalick, and prospector Terry Prebalick of California Gold Panning. (Courtesy of Nick Prebalick)

As this year’s snow melts from the Sierra Nevada and other mountains, the runoff will wash away silt and deposit more gold in rivers and streams, prompting some to predict a modern-day gold rush this summer.

California’s first gold rush in 1848 brought fortune seekers from all over the world. More than 300,000 came to the territory, and gold was worth $20.67 per ounce, according to the National Museum of American History.

Today, each ounce is worth about $2,000.

“I think this summer. I’m going to be swamped,” he said. “We’ll probably get 10 groups a day.”

Mark Keene, who owns the mining equipment company Keene Engineering in Chatsworth—about 30 miles northwest of the city of Los Angeles—with his brother, told The Epoch Times he also anticipates a big increase in gold mining activities when the snow starts to melt.

“In my lifetime, I don’t remember this much snowpack in the mountains,” Keene said, adding that he expects to see a superflood. Keene sells gold pans, sluice boxes, and other tools used by armatures and professionals.

“When you have a catastrophic flood like that all the riverbanks and the mountainsides wash down in the river and you see a lot of gold,” he said. “It could be one of the best years in decades for mining.”

Keene and his family have a secret mining spot and they visit on the weekends, he said.

Gold flakes are being found in the Klamath River. (Courtesy of the New 49’ers Prospecting Association)

“It’s not always about the gold,” he said. “It’s about the journey and the adventure of it, too.”

First-timers need to know the rules before heading out to look for treasures, though, said Dickey Melton, manager of The New 49’ers Prospecting Association, a gold mining club based about 20 south of the Oregon border in Happy Camp, California.

“What we have now is a whole bunch of hand miners,” Melton said, as state law prohibits any type of mining other than panning, sluice boxes, or shovels.

Even with restrictions, many people come out to the club’s 63 claims on 83 miles on the Klamath River, which flows more than 250 miles through Oregon and northern California.

“We get people from all over the world who come here,” Melton said. “Right now, all of that snow is melting, and the rivers are running really high. We’re seeing some hand miners coming in with some pretty good gold.”

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New California Gold Rush Coming As Record Snowpack Melts

"Falsification Of History": Egypt Goes Ballistic On Netflix Over Cleopatra's Race

According to Egypt's antiquities ministry, an upcoming four-part drama-documentary produced by Netflix has made a serious error regarding the race of one of Egypt's pharaohs. It appears that 'woke capital' is distorting history. 

"Queen Cleopatra," released May 10, has Black actor Adele James featured as the legendary leader. The move by Jada Pinkett Smith, the producer and narrator of the series, has infuriated Mostafa Waziri, head of the Supreme Antiquities Council, who said: portraying Cleopatra as Black is "a falsification of Egyptian history."

Waziri said nothing was racist about his comments, which were entirely motivated by "defending the history of Queen Cleopatra, an important part of the history of Egypt in antiquity."

Egyptian experts insist Cleopatra had "white skin and Hellenistic characteristics." But don't tell 'woke Netflix' this... 

An online petition on Change.org titled Cancel Netflix's "Queen Cleopatra" has nearly 8,000 signatures. It alleges:

"Afrocentrism is a pseudoscience that is pushing a group's agenda to claim Egypt's history and rob the actual Egyptians of it. By using false articles and zero evidence, they are still attempting to falsify history."

"Cleopatra was born in Alexandria, Egypt in the Ptolemaic dynasty to Greek descent. She was NOT black. This is in no way against black people, and is simply a wake up call to preserve the history and the integrity of the Egyptians and the Greeks."

"The show is clearly done to complement the Afrocentric movement, which claims to be the owner of the ancient Egyptian civilization, and to consolidate what the movement promotes. Egypt was never black and it was never white, Egypt is just Egypt. There are many great African/black civilizations, but Egypt was/is NOT one of them. Sign the petition to stop the falsification of history!" 

Meanwhile, Egypt has been critical of Netflix's content. It recently demanded the online streaming platform to drop content that runs counter to its "societal values," such as Western-produced television shows featuring gay and lesbian characters onscreen. 

So, in Egypt's view, woke Netflix is distorting history. 

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"Falsification Of History": Egypt Goes Ballistic On Netflix Over Cleopatra's Race

In Big Win For Gun-Rights Advocates, Federal Judge Enjoins Illinois' Assault Weapons Ban

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In a major victory for gun rights advocates, U.S. District Judge Stephen McGlynn has granted a preliminary injunction of Illinois’ ban on assault weapons and large capacity magazines. The decision comes after two other district courts ruled in favor of the law — sending this issue to the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit and potentially the Supreme Court.  These long-awaited challenges will test the Democratic calls for removing all AR-15s and similar weapons, including calls from President Joe Biden.

I have previously raised doubts over some of these laws, which are based on questionable factual claims and distinctions between weapons. Indeed, President Biden has made dubious constitutional and historical claims about the Second Amendment and AR-15s.

Illinois and New York have previously supplied gun rights advocates with huge victories by drafting facially unconstitutional laws. Moderate efforts at gun control are often ramped up in the legislative process to become more and more sweeping.

McGlynn recognized that gun bans are popular in states like Illinois but noted that “even legislation that may enjoy the support of a majority of its citizens must fail if it violates the constitutional rights of fellow citizens.”

The court tackles the argument made by many gun control advocates that states can ban “non-essential accessories” like magazines because they are not themselves “arms” under the Second Amendment.

PICA outlaws possession of a “semiautomatic pistol” with a detachable magazine if it is equipped with any of the following: “a threaded barrel,” “a shroud attached to the barrel or that partially or completely encircles the barrel,” “a flash suppressor,” or “arm brace.” PICA further outlaws possession of a magazine for a handgun capable of holding more than 15 rounds of ammunition and of “[a] semiautomatic pistol that has a fixed magazine with the capacity to accept more than 15 rounds.” Defendants contend that such items are not necessary to the functioning of a firearm and are thus not “arms” and therefore not protected by the Second Amendment.

Defendants’ argument is not persuasive. The Seventh Circuit has recognized the Second Amendment as extending to “corollar[ies] to the meaningful exercise of the core right to possess firearms for self-defense.” It is hard to imagine something more closely correlated to the right to use a firearm in self-defense than the ability to effectively load ammunition into the firearm. The Third Circuit recognized the importance of this corollary and held that “a magazine is an arm under the Second Amendment.”

McGlynn also stated that it is “bordering on the frivolous” to claim that neither large capacity magazines nor assault weapons are protected because they were not in common use when the Second Amendment was ratified. He cited the long-standing rule that “the Second Amendment extends, prima facie, to all instruments that constitute bearable arms, even those that were not in existence at the time of the founding.”

The court also rejected the claim that the standard is whether a weapon was in common use for self-defense:

Bruen clearly holds that the Second Amendment protects “possession and use” of weapons “in common use” not just weapons in common use for self-defense as Defendants’ argued. Even if there was a requirement that the “common use” of an “arm” be self-defense, AR-15 style rifles would meet such a test considering that 34.6% of owners utilize these rifles for self-defense outside of their home and 61.9% utilize them for self-defense at home.

The court further noted that large capacity magazines are commonly owned and used by sporting enthusiasts and there are more AR-15s than F150s in this country.

Judge McGlynn also noted that these weapons are commonly used for self-defense and that there are up to 2.5 million instances each year in which civilians used firearms for home defense. He added:

“In no way does this Court minimize the damage caused when a firearm is used for an unlawful purpose; however, this Court must be mindful of the rights guaranteed by the Constitution. While PICA was purportedly enacted in response to the Highland Park shooting, it does not appear that the legislature considered an individual’s right under the Second Amendment nor Supreme Court precedent. Moreover, PICA did not just regulate the rights of the people to defend themselves; it restricted that right, and in some cases, completely obliterated that right by criminalizing the purchase and the sale of more than 190 “arms.” Furthermore, on January 1, 2024, the right to mere possession of these items will be further limited and restricted Accordingly, the balance of harms favors the Plaintiffs.

The Court recognizes that the issues with which it is confronted are highly contentious and provoke strong emotions. Again, the Court’s ruling today is not a final resolution of the merits of the cases. Nothing in this order prevents the State from confronting firearm-related violence. There is a wide array of civil and criminal laws that permit the commitment and prosecution of those who use or may use firearms to commit crimes. Law enforcement and prosecutors should take their obligations to enforce these laws seriously. Families and the public at large should report concerning behavior. Judges should exercise their prudent judgment in committing individuals that pose a threat to the public and imposing sentences that punish, not just lightly inconvenience, those guilty of firearm-related crimes.”

Here is the opinion: 2023-04-28-Order-Granting-MPI

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In Big Win For Gun-Rights Advocates, Federal Judge Enjoins Illinois' Assault Weapons Ban

California Teachers Sue School District Over Transgender Policy Allegedly Forcing Them To Lie To Parents

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Teachers from a California middle school are suing officials in their school district in federal court over policies that they say force them to conceal the transgender status of young students from parents.

The California Department of Education in Sacramento, on April 18, 2022. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

The lawsuit happens to come after President Joe Biden’s remarks earlier this month in support of the nation’s teacher of the year angered parents by suggesting government knows best when it comes to the raising of children.

Biden quoted the teacher when he said, “There’s no such thing as someone else’s child.” The president then said, “Our nation’s children are all our children.”

The legal complaint (pdf) in the new case, Mirabelli v. Olson, was filed April 27 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California. The teachers involved in the lawsuit are devout Christians.

The defendants are officials with the Escondido Union School District (EUSD), which is in San Diego County, and officials with the California State Board of Education.

The lawsuit was prompted by the K-8 school district’s recent policies affecting transgender or gender-diverse students.

The policies require teachers to assist in a student’s transgender “social transition” by accepting a child’s assertion of a transgender or gender-diverse identity and using during school hours any pronouns or a gender-specific name requested by a student.

At the same time, the policies also require teachers to revert to biological pronouns and legal names when speaking with parents in order to cover up information about a child’s purported gender identity from the child’s parents, according to the Thomas More Society, a nonprofit public interest law firm that filed the lawsuit.

“All of this is to be done without parent or guardian agreement or knowledge,” said Paul Jonna, Thomas More Society special counsel and a partner at LiMandri and Jonna.

“Schools routinely send notes home to parents about trivial matters, like missing homework, so it is unfathomable that Escondido Union School District has a policy that forces teachers to withhold from parents some of the most fundamental and basic information about their children,” Jonna said.

EUSD requires all elementary and middle school teachers to “unhesitatingly accept a child’s assertion of a transgender or gender diverse identity, and … [to] ‘begin to treat the student immediately’ according to their asserted gender identity,” according to the legal complaint.

“There is absolutely no room for discussion, polite disagreement, or even questioning whether the child is sincere or acting on a whim,” the complaint continues. “Once a child’s social transitioning has begun, EUSD elementary and middle school teachers must ensure that parents do not find out.”

“EUSD’s policies state that ‘revealing a student’s transgender status to individuals who do not have a legitimate need for the information, without the student’s consent’ is prohibited, and ‘parents or caretakers’ are, according to EUSD, individuals who ‘do not have a legitimate need for the information,’ irrespective of the age of the student or the specific facts of the situation.”

Read more here...

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California Teachers Sue School District Over Transgender Policy Allegedly Forcing Them To Lie To Parents

What The End Of Fed Rate-Hikes Means For Stocks

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

According to this week’s Commerce Department report, U.S. GDP increased at an annualized rate of 1.1 percent during Q1 2023.  The experts thought GDP would grow by 2 percent.  They were wrong.

By now, it’s very well possible GDP has already slipped into reverse.  We won’t know until the Commerce Department’s Q2 report is released in late July.  In the interim, there’s an important question to be asked:

Is a recession bullish or bearish for stocks?

Next week, following the federal open market committee (FOMC) meeting on May 2 and 3, it’s widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 25 basis points.  This will take the federal funds rate to a range of 5.00 to 5.25 percent.

It is also anticipated that this will be the last rate hike of this rate hiking cycle.  That the Fed will then hold interest rates, before cutting them later this year to offset the recession.

Interest rate cuts are commonly recognized as being bullish for stocks and stimulative for the economy. 

Here at the Economic Prism, we have some reservations.

In short, we expect there will be a great stock market purge that will take the major indexes to unimaginable lows.  We also expect this will coincide with the slashing and burning of interest rates.  Here’s why…

The last time a Fed rate hike took the federal funds rate to 5.25 percent was June 29, 2006.  If you recall, the Fed then paused and held the federal funds rate at 5.25 percent for roughly 15 months.  Then on September 18, 2007, the Fed cut rates 50 basis points.

A lot happened beneath the surface over these 15 months when the federal funds rate was held at 5.25 percent.  Massive stressors were formed, as this rate was relatively higher than the preceding years.  In June 2003, for example, the federal funds rate touched 1.00 percent, and remained there until June of 2004.

Cheap Credit Spawns Bad Debt

When credit is cheap, opportunities to borrow and spend money are much more manageable.  When interest rates are ultra-low, consumers, businesses, and governments can make their cash flow pencil out for purchases that would otherwise be extravagant.

But when the federal funds rate is 5.25 percent, and credit markets are tighter, the cash flow comes up short.  Debts go unpaid and slip into arrears.  Defaults occur.

Yet the effects of cheap credit spawning bad debt takes time to filter its way through the economy.  Sectors that largely rely on financing to move products – such as real estate and automobiles – are generally hit first.  While demand for bricks of dry ramen noodles, which even with today’s inflation can still be bought with pocket change, remains even.

When the Fed brought the federal funds rate to 5.25 percent in June 2006, and then signaled a pause, there was a sense of relief.  Professional economists thought the worst of it had come and gone.  They believed the stress of higher interest rates had already been realized.

In fact, on May 17, 2007, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke gave a speech before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, where he said:

“The subprime mess is grave but largely contained.  Given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited.”   

Did he believe what he was saying?  Because at the precise moment he spoke these words the nation’s housing market was rotting just beneath his nose.  Did he not smell it?

Sowing the Seeds of Chaos

Apparently, Bernanke was missing his sense of smell.  Because when Bear Stearns blew up in March 2008, Bernanke was again quick to dismiss it.  On June 8, 2008, Bernanke, said:

“The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so.”

At the same time, Bernanke was slashing the federal funds rate.  Bringing it from 5.25 percent in September 2007 to a range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent by December 2008.  Perhaps he thought this would buoy the economy and float stocks higher.

But then, on September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers blew up and credit markets frosted over like the Alaskan tundra.  Three days later Bernanke, along with Hank “my squirt gun’s a bazooka” Paulson, went to Congress and demanded a mega-bailout of the financial system.

On September 18, 2008, at an emergency meeting in the Capitol, Bernanke told Nancy Pelosi, Barney Frank, and Chris Dodd: “If we don’t do this tomorrow, we won’t have an economy on Monday.”

Two months after firing off Paulson’s bazooka, Bernanke commenced QE1.  In doing so, he corrupted financial markets and the economy without end…and sowed the seeds of today’s financial and economic chaos.

Over this time, as the federal funds rate was being slashed and QE began flooding the financial markets with liquidity, the stock market didn’t go up.  Instead, it went down.

The S&P 500, for example, peaked out at about 1,586 in October 2007.  It then slowly slid down to about 1,200 in August 2008.  Over this time, investors thought they were buying the dip.  That the Fed had engineered a soft landing.  They were dead wrong.

By September 2008, the S&P 500 was freefalling like common ravens descending upon fresh roadkill.  Taking it down to a bottom of 666 on March 6, 2009.  This amounted to a top to bottom decline of 58 percent.  It was brutal.  Yet it was also the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

What’s the point?

What the End of Fed Rate Hikes Means for Stocks

Here in the wooded mountains of East Tennessee the vegetated growth is so dense it shuts off the adjacent view.  Hollers, as they’re called in southern Appalachia, are undetectable.  And in an instant, things can go terribly wrong.

Take Dennis Martin, for instance.  On June 14, 1969, he wandered off a Smoky Mountain trail never to be seen again.  Approximately 1,400 search and rescue workers – including the National Guard, Green Berets, and Boy Scouts of America – walked narrow transects across a 56 square mile area.

All that was found were footprints leading to a stream, one shoe, and one sock.  Martin vanished with hardly a trace.

Where did he go?  Did a black bear eat him?

To this day, no one knows.  It’s an unsolved mystery. 

What to make of it…

As we’ve just documented, the Fed stopped hiking rates in June 2006.  The S&P 500 continued to inflate until October 2007.  The Fed then began cutting rates in September 2007.  The stock market didn’t bottom out until March 2009 – 18 months after rate cuts were first initiated.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” is a cliché that’s often attributed to Mark Twain.  We don’t know if he actually said it.  And we really don’t care.  The insight, however, is edifying.

The stresses that are plaguing financial markets and the economy in 2023 are certainly different than those of 2008. 

The world has dramatically changed over these 15 years.  But if you listen with a trained ear, there are similar rhymes.

Namely, there’s massive amounts of bad debt out there that relatively higher interest rates over the past 14 months have exposed.  The commercial real estate market is absolute toast.  Pension funds, having stretched for yield, are holding a bag of assets that’s backed by eroding collateral.  At the same time, the S&P 500 is still well overvalued relative to its historical mean.

By this, the likely end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle next week does not mean we’re out of the woods.  Rather, it means we’re just entering the woods…

And, assuming the Fed starts cutting rates in October of this year, the S&P 500 may not reemerge from the woods until it bottoms out in April 2025.

*  *  *

Like this article?  If so, please Subscribe to the Economic Prism.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/29/2023 - 19:00
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What The End Of Fed Rate-Hikes Means For Stocks

Europe Is Buying Record Amounts Of Refined Russian Fuels Through India, And Paying A Huge Markup

Last August, we were the first to show how Russia was bypassing Europe's so-called commodities embargo: it was selling LNG to China which was then re-selling it to Europe at a substantial mark up. And while we also frequently reported that Russia was using a similar sanctions bypass for oil, this time using India instead of China, few were willing to confirm as much: after all, it would seem very shortsighted if European consumers were paying an extra surcharge to India, while Russia was not suffering any adverse consequences from Europe's laughable "sanctions."

Not any more: on Friday, Bloomberg reported that for all of Europe's fire and brimstone about an embargo (which has gotten decidedly quieter in recent months), "Russian oil is still powering Europe just with the help of India."

As we reported at the time, last December the EU barred almost any seaborne crude oil imports from Russia. It extended the prohibition to refined fuels two months later. However, the rules didn’t stop countries like India from snapping up cheap Russian crude, turning it into fuels like diesel, and shipping it back to Europe at a big markup: as shown in the chart below, just the Brent to Urals price differential, a byproduct of the Russian sanctions, is about $25/bbl, almost a third of the price of a barrel of crude. The markups on Russian product are even greater when dealing with refined products such as gasoline or diesel.

In fact, India has become so good at reselling Russian oil to the same Europeans who refuse to buy it directly from Moscow for a much lower price, that the Asian country is on track to become Europe’s largest supplier of refined fuels this month while simultaneously buying record amounts of Russian crude, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.

In other words, Europe is still buying Russian oil, keeping Putin's military machine well-funded, but because of the virtue signaling exercise of buying Russian oil though a mediator, the transaction ends up costing Europeans billions more than if they simply had purchased the oil directly.

pic.twitter.com/exdke9mX0p

— Derek J. Grossman (@DerekJGrossman) April 29, 2023

“Russian oil is finding its way back into Europe despite all the sanctioning and India ramping up fuel exports to the west is a good example of it,” said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at the firm. “With India taking in so much Russian barrels, it’s inevitable.”

As Bloomberg notes, "the development is double-edged for the EU. On the one hand, the bloc needs alternative sources of diesel now that it has cut off direct flows from Russia, previously its top supplier. However, it ultimately boosts demand for Moscow’s barrels, and means extra freight costs." In other words, Europe achieves none of its embargo goals (i.e., keeping Russian oil out of the market, preventing Putin from using oil to finance the war in Ukraine), while being hit with far higher energy prices.

It also means more competition for Europe’s oil refiners who can’t access cheap Russian crude, and comes amid wider market scrutiny about where the region’s diesel imports are coming from.

Repsol SA’s CEO Josu Jon Imaz said on Thursday that Russian diesel is entering Europe illegally and called on authorities to clamp down on the activity. He wasn’t talking about the trade via India but flows of diesel that originated in Russia... which of course is the same thing.

Hilariously, a preliminary inquiry into the matter by Spanish authorities didn’t find evidence that Russian diesel was entering the country, a government official said Friday, adding that a probe is ongoing. Of course, nobody in Europe wants to admit that they are indirectly funding Putin, so expect many more such "discoveries" as all other countries try to find if they are importing Russian oil only to find that everyone but them is using it.

Meanwhile, Europe’s refined fuel imports from India are set to surge above 360,000 barrels a day, edging just ahead of those of oil exporting titan Saudi Arabia, Kpler’s data show.

And the cherry on top: Russian crude oil arrivals to India are expected to surpass 2 million barrels a day in April, representing almost 44% of the nation’s overall oil imports, according to Kpler data. India then quickly re-exports the oil or processes it first into diesel and gasoline, and then sells it to European customers.

More than half of Russia’s seaborne oil shipments were to the European Union and Group of Seven nations before the bloc began to cut purchases in response to the nation’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Finally, the question of what the point is of continued Russian "sanctions" remains, as the IIF's Robin Brooks explains in the following twitter thread, which once again makes clear that western sanctions against Russia have been a catastrophic failure... perhaps as was intended all along.

Evaluation of our sanctions policy

1. Only 2 questions matter. First, have our sanctions meaningfully curtailed Russia's ability to wage war? Second, are our sanctions a deterrent to countries that may wage war in the future? Unfortunately, the answer to both questions is: "No!"

2. Root problem is an infatuation with financial sanctions. These can be effective when used on current account deficit countries - Turkey in 2018 is an example - but they don't work on current account surplus countries. This is a key point that cannot be emphasized enough.

3. Russia shows how our financial sanctions failed. We sanctioned some banks, including the central bank (red), but not all. This meant that all the cash from Russia's current account surplus got routed through non-sanctioned Russian banks (blue). Putin still got all his cash...

4. So our financial sanctions did not prevent Putin getting all his cash in return for energy exports. All this cash just got routed through different banks than before. As a result, financial conditions in Russia eased back to pre-war levels, a big plus for Russia's war economy.

5. We could have avoided this, but it would have required sanctioning ALL Russian banks. That's the same as a trade embargo, since Putin no longer gets paid and stops exporting. This shows what's needed to hurt c/a surplus countries: a trade embargo! Not financial sanctions...

6. Number one lesson from Russia is that our infatuation with financial sanctions must end. They don't work on c/a surplus countries, unless we sanction all banks, in which case we're just doing a trade embargo. We need to be doing trade embargos instead of financial sanctions...

7. Had we done a hard energy embargo on Russia, this would have come at a cost to the West, but Russia would have gone into financial crisis, making the war harder for Putin to fight. An embargo would have also scared other potentially hostile current account surplus countries.

8. It's not too late. First, the West needs to end its focus on financial sanctions. Second, we need to start talking about hard trade-offs that are needed to confront c/a surplus countries. We need to stop giving them cash, which means we need to stop buying their stuff...

9. A footnote on the G7 oil price cap. The cap is recognition of the fact that Russia's current account surplus needs to be cut. But - thanks to Greek shipping oligarchs - the cap was set at $60 and wasn't binding. A mistake that can be fixed now by lowering the cap...

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/29/2023 - 18:30
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Europe Is Buying Record Amounts Of Refined Russian Fuels Through India, And Paying A Huge Markup

Saturday Satire: The Diversity Officer Employment Aptitude Test

Authored by Stanley Ridgley via American Greatness,

Demand for Diversity Officers may have peaked and may even be on the wane.

The Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion hustle is running its course and may soon be out of steam, but it’s not too late to collect your share of the loot.

This means you shouldn’t delay applying for one of the lucrative positions carrying the generic title of “DEI Officer.” 

While the typical DEI position requires no expertise of any sort, it does require a collection of attitudes toward your fellow men and women, an ability to utter shameless platitudes and clichés, and embrace a clearly identifiable and primitive Manichean worldview grounded in paranoia.

If you aim to become a promising candidate for a Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) position, either in the corporate world or in academia, you can easily discover if you have the necessary self-conscious virtue by taking this five-minute employment aptitude survey.

Answer “Yes” to the following statements if you agree, and add or subtract the points assigned for each question based on your Yes answer.

Then score yourself by comparing your results with those in the chart at the end. Good luck!

1) I am not appreciated for my many talents. +3

2) I am inherently suspicious of others. +3

3) I believe that America is the land of opportunity. -3

4) I believe that I have access to truths denied to others. +5

5) I believe that I must work hard for my reward. -3

6) I believe in a world that is divided into oppressors and oppressed, exploiters and exploited and that these groups are easily identified by the color of their skin.  +5

7) I believe that I can work to give in-groups preferential treatment while simultaneously saying that there are no racial or gender preferences at our institution. +3

8) I believe that I should bring my “authentic self” to work, irrespective of any other considerations. +5

9) I believe, like Frederick Douglass, that in America, one can pull oneself up “by the bootstraps” to succeed. -7

10) If I fail in my job, I immediately search for the reason in causes external to me, such as the “system” or the “unearned advantages” available to other people. +7

11) If people question me and ask for evidence for what I say, I immediately attack them for their “resistance” to the truth that I offer in my story.  +5

12) I believe that “indigenous” forms of knowledge such as the “medicine wheel” and the “talking stick” should be incorporated into our scientific discourse. +7

13) I always list my pronouns in my email signature and social media profiles. +3

14) I recognize that today’s “Diversity” office resembles the Soviet Union’s old Political Commissariat, where political ideologues occupied positions to report on the political reliability of those who actually worked to accomplish the mission. -10    BONUS POINTS:  If you know this but believe it’s a good thing.  +15

15) Anyone who disagrees with the lofty goals of “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” is guilty of “diversity resistance.”  +5

16) I believe that a doctorate in education, sociology, or gender studies is every bit as important and impressive as a doctorate in physics. +3

17) When people respond to my charges of “racism” in a particular company or university, with bothersome requests for evidence, examples, or proof, I complain of being attacked, invalidated, and dehumanized rather than taking the opportunity to prove my point.  +5

18) I believe that “stories” and “narratives” are just as important and as convincing as knowledge grounded in logic, reason, and the scientific method. +7

19) As women are 50 percent more likely to earn bachelor’s degrees than men, this shows we need to do everything we can to support women in higher education. +3

20) I am familiar with the racialist statement “skinfolk aren’t always kinfolk,” and I look with suspicion at persons with whom I share the superficial characteristic of race but who disagree with me. +7

21) I routinely drop the word “systemic” into conversations. +3

22) I use the terms “white supremacy” and “white privilege” comfortably and un-ironically, without awareness that they are equivalent to scapegoat devil terms such as the bourgeoisie, or Kulaks, or International Jewry, or infidels to explain all the bad that happens. +5

23) I believe that the best method for advancing our knowledge and understanding of the physical world is logic, reason, and the type of inquiry we call the scientific method. -10

24) I believe that people like Ijeomo Oluo, Paulo Freire, Ibram Kendi, and Derald Wing Sue have important things to say about our society that get to the inner truth. +5

24) I don’t pay much attention to the fantasies, “stories,” and pseudoscience of Ijeomo Oluo, Paulo Freire, Ibram Kendi, and Derald Wing Sue. -7

25) I believe in something called “diversity science,” which substantiates the basic beneficial tenets of the diversity agenda. +5

26) I believe that “diversity science” is pseudo-scientific twaddle fabricated by off campus nonprofits and imported into universities and the corporate world. -10

27) The Brazilian educationist Paulo Freire and his Pedagogy of the Oppressed inspires me to work for social justice, emancipation, and against oppression in all its forms.  +5

28) I know that Paulo Freire was a crypto-Maoist who borrowed almost all of his education theory from Mao Zedong’s murderous Cultural Revolution, which Freire greatly admired. -5 BONUS POINTS:  If you know this but believe it’s a good thing.  +15 .

29) I believe any disagreement with my worldview can be overcome with more “education.” +3

30) I divide society into “oppressors” and “oppressed,” “exploiters” and “exploited,” and I know that this is a primitive Manichean way of looking at society that resembles a medievalist world divided into “infidels” and “believers.”  +5 BONUS POINTS:  If you do this and believe it’s a good thing.  +5

31) I believe in “inclusion and belonging” as fervently as any member of Reverend Moon’s Unification Church believes in “peace and unity.” +3

32) I believe that I have attained “critical consciousness” and that those who disagree with my ideology are afflicted with “false consciousness” and must be taught to embrace a new belief system. +5

33) I believe that “critical consciousness” and “false consciousness” constitute a tautological contrivance that updates Karl Marx’s notion of “class consciousness” for race and gender sensibilities. -5  BONUS POINTS: I recognize that critical consciousness is the latest play on Plato’s cave allegory from his Republic of the 4th century B.C. -5  DOUBLE-BONUS POINTS:  If you know the foregoing and believe they are good things. +15 I don’t know who Plato is. +10

34) I believe that the poetry of Audre Lorde is profound, particularly her “master’s tools” line. +2

35) I recognize that Audre Lorde’s “master’s tools” line is pedestrian. -7

36) “Inclusion and belonging” sounds too close to a cult slogan for me to feel comfortable with it. -7

37) I believe that I should be called “Doctor” just like Jill Biden because I wrote a 120-page “dissertation” for my Ed.D. that explores my feelings about the education program I just completed, and which required zero research.  +7

38) I am thrilled—thrilled—that “I finally get to use my master’s degree” in educational leadership to bring people to critical consciousness.  +3

 *  *  *

Good candidate? You make the call!

+40 and above: Welcome aboard, commissar!  Get ready to Do the Work!

+39-30: Not the perfect package but you’re ready to share authentic stories, struggle against “supremacy,” and do some dismantling!

+29-20: A few more weeks of amplifying “marginalized voices” should bolster your score

+19-10: You’re not committed enough—time for a “difficult dialogue” and a “courageous conversation,” capped off with a “Brave Space”

+9-0: Hands behind your back—your struggle session is through that door.

-1 and below: Racist!

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/29/2023 - 18:00
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Saturday Satire: The Diversity Officer Employment Aptitude Test

"Something Clearly Went Wrong" - Fauci & Friends Desperately Try To 'Close The Book' On COVID

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

Billed as the most in-depth interview yet, the New York Times published a very long piece that contains some rather startling admissions, claims, and defenses from Anthony Fauci, the face of lockdowns and shot mandates.

The author and interviewer is David Wallace-Wells, who before (and now after) Covid specialized in writing about climate change, invokes every predictable trope.

So there was a sense in which this interview was a lovefest between the two.

Still it netted some interesting results.

Here are my top-ten picks of Fauci quotes.

1. Fauci: “Something clearly went wrong. And I don’t know exactly what it was. But the reason we know it went wrong is that we are the richest country in the world, and on a per-capita basis we’ve done worse than virtually all other countries.”

This seems promising but one quickly realizes that there is an axiom among the people responsible for lockdowns. They were completely correct in their thinking. The problem was not enough centralization, prior planning, or resources.

Also there was too much disinformation and non-compliance, leading to a low vaccine uptake compared with other countries. The vaccines are the miracle and the greatest achievement of the pandemic, a point on which they admit no argument.

This is also the conclusion of a thing called The Covid Crisis Group (funded mostly by the Charles Koch and Rockefeller Foundations) which has released the new book Lessons from the Covid War: An Investigative Report. There is no PDF. You have to buy it. The lead author is the well-known fixer Philip Zelikow, who wrote the 9-11 Commission report.

Included among the team is none other than Carter Mecher, who bears more responsibility for school closings than anyone else. Also there is Rajeev Venkayya, the one-time Bush administration official who is widely credited with having invented the very concept of lockdowns.

It’s their story and they are sticking to it.

2. Fauci on vaccine mandates: “Man, I think, almost paradoxically, you had people who were on the fence about getting vaccinated thinking, why are they forcing me to do this? And that sometimes-beautiful independent streak in our country becomes counterproductive. And you have that smoldering anti-science feeling, a divisiveness that’s palpable politically in this country.”

If you didn’t think you needed the vaccine or didn’t trust it, Fauci proclaims that you are responsible for divisiveness and anti-science feeling. The “independent streak” is called freedom, which for him is the real problem. The lesson for next time? Hard to know. Maybe he thinks the mandates should have been enforced with more energy.

3. Fauci on the economics of the lockdowns: “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is not an economic organization. The surgeon general is not an economist. So we looked at it from a purely public-health standpoint.

It was for other people to make broader assessments — people whose positions include but aren’t exclusively about public health. Those people have to make the decisions about the balance between the potential negative consequences of something versus the benefits of something.”

There we go with the great divide between public health and real life, as if one does not impact the other. Public health cared not for economics — the science of human cooperation — and, sadly, the economists were too often unschooled on public health. The compartmentalization of speciality fields played into the haphazard totalitarianism we experienced.

But there’s more — a lot more. Read on to see Fauci’s other important quotes, and what they really mean.

4. Fauci on why he is not responsible for anything: “when people say, ‘Fauci shut down the economy’ — it wasn’t Fauci. The C.D.C. was the organization that made those recommendations. I happened to be perceived as the personification of the recommendations. But show me a school that I shut down and show me a factory that I shut down. Never. I never did. I gave a public-health recommendation that echoed the C.D.C.’s recommendation, and people made a decision based on that. But I never criticized the people who had to make the decisions one way or the other.”

He was merely deferring to a giant bureaucracy where no one takes responsibility either!

5. Fauci on how they should have locked down earlier: “We were not fully appreciative of the fact that we were dealing with a highly, highly transmissible virus that was clearly spread by ways that were unprecedented and unexperienced by us. And so it fooled us in the beginning and confused us about the need for masks and the need for ventilation and the need for inhibition of social interaction.” Should they have shut down in February 2020? “We should have, probably, if we knew what we know now.”

Inexperienced in a textbook respiratory virus? It’s because they thought it was a bioweapon that could be handled like AIDS. Masks were the condoms. Lockdowns were the behavioral changes. Minimizing of cases was the metric of success. On every point, they were wrong.

Plus they didn’t even learn from the AIDS experience. It wasn’t the vaccines that cooled the crisis. It was the therapeutics innovated in clinical experience. Instead, Fauci shut down all efforts at early treatment to wait for the vaccines. Having done it earlier would have been even worse!

6. Fauci on the effectiveness of masking: “From a broad public-health standpoint, at the population level, masks work at the margins — maybe 10 percent. But for an individual who religiously wears a mask, a well-fitted KN95 or N95, it’s not at the margin. It really does work. But I think anything that instigated or intensified the culture wars just made things worse. And I have to be honest with you, David, when it comes to masking, I don’t know.”

He doesn’t know. At least he admits it. And yet the CDC is still suing for the legal right to impose masking on the whole population whoever it wants.

7. Fauci on not understanding the virus: “Herd immunity is based on two premises: one, that the virus doesn’t change, and two, that when you get infected or vaccinated, the durability of protection is measured in decades, if not a lifetime. With SARS-CoV-2, we thought protection against infection was going to be measured in a long period of time. And we found out — wait a minute, protection against infection, and against severe disease, is measured in months, not decades. No. 2, the virus that you got infected with in January 2020 is very different from the virus that you’re going to get infected with in 2021 and 2022.”

To be clear, nothing about herd immunity requires lifetime immunity and it certainly is not premised on unchanging virus. Indeed, it is astonishing that he claims they had no idea the virus would mutate.

It’s an established reality that such widespread and mostly non-deadly pathogens like this mutate, which is precisely why they cannot be eradicated through vaccination. Why must anyone have to explain virus basics to Fauci of all people?

8. Fauci on the huge age gradient of medically significant risk: “Did we say that the elderly were much more vulnerable? Yes. Did we say it over and over and over again? Yes, yes, yes. But somehow or other, the general public didn’t get that feeling that the vulnerable are really, really heavily weighted toward the elderly. Like 85% of the hospitalizations are there.”

In fact, their solution was to shut down the whole of society for a virus that was mostly if not entirely a danger to the aged and sick. And to justify that, they absolutely did obscure the risk gradient, which is why most everyone was running around like their hair was on fire. The attempt was precisely to create population fear and panic, as Fauci said many times in private.

9. Fauci on whether the NIH funded the lab that leaked the virus. “ Now you’re saying things that are a little bit troublesome to me. That I need to go to bed tonight worrying that N.I.H.-funded research was responsible for pandemic origins…. Well, I sleep fine. I sleep fine. And remember, this work was done in order to be able to help prepare us for the next outbreak. This work was not conceived by me as I was having my omelet in the morning. It is a grant that was put before peer review of independent scientists whose main role is to try to get data to protect the health and safety of the American public and the world. And it was judged that this type of research was important.”

Once again, if the NIH had anything to do with funding the research that led to the virus, he is not responsible for that either. It was those pesky independent scientists. He has again thrown colleagues under the bus.

10. Fauci on gain-of-function research: “Some want to pass a law: All gain-of-function should be stopped. But if all gain-of-function stops, you will have no vaccines for flu. You will have no vaccines for any of the other diseases, because all of that manipulates a virus or a pathogen to gain a certain function to be able to make a vaccine.”

That’s a very hard claim. I asked ChatGPT about that and it quickly spat out the following:

“No, the flu vaccine does not require gain-of-function research. The development of flu vaccines typically involves studying the behavior of the virus and its strains, identifying the most common strains and predicting which one will be most prevalent in the upcoming season. The vaccine is then developed using inactivated or attenuated versions of the virus, which do not require gain-of-function research. Gain-of-function research, which involves genetically modifying viruses to make them more infectious or deadly, is sometimes used for studying the flu virus, but it is not required for the creation of flu vaccines.”

If not for the flu vaccine, what is gain-of-function’s purpose? The creation of bioweapons and vaccines to confound them? The track record of this looks awful.

Fauci and his friends keep trying to close the book on the Covid epoch. They have settled on the messaging and are doing everything possible to tie it all up in a bow in hopes that everyone will move on. The mainstream media wants to move on too. Everyone guilty for the wreckage wants to do the same, particularly the elites in every sector that pushed for and celebrated the mass violation of human rights.

They are wrong. The book is not closed and will not be until we get honest answers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/29/2023 - 17:00
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"Something Clearly Went Wrong" - Fauci & Friends Desperately Try To 'Close The Book' On COVID

A Conservative Conversation With A Bothered Bot

Authored by Lloyd Brown via AmericanThinker.com,

According to the media, Artificial Intelligence (AI), is the greatest thing since sliced bread. AI is so smart that some worry it could take over the world and rule mankind.

But skeptics have found AI chatbots to be more than a little left-wing.

Recently, I argued with one over the worn-out liberal claim that conservatives are fascists, a notion that the left continues to mouth even though it was well refuted by Jonah Goldberg in Liberal Fascism.

It was like pulling a tooth, but I got this crucial admission: “…conservatism and fascism are not the same thing.”

Here’s how the discussion went:

Me: What's the difference between socialism and fascism?

AI: Socialism and fascism are two different political ideologies, although there can be some overlap in their policies and practices. Socialism is a political and economic system where the means of production are commonly owned and controlled by the state, or by worker cooperatives, with the goal of achieving greater equality and reducing societal inequalities. Socialism espouses the idea of collective ownership and distribution of resources. Fascism, on the other hand, is a far-right authoritarian political system that puts the nation and its interests above everything else, including individual rights and freedoms. Fascism advocates for a powerful government with a leader who has absolute power over the state and a strong military to maintain order and control. In summary, socialism aims at achieving economic and social equality, while fascism prioritizes the nation's interests and gives the government absolute power.

Me: How can that be possible when the right, conservatives, oppose big government? Isn't what you said total nonsense and liberal propaganda?

AI: I apologize if my previous response was unclear. I was attempting to provide an objective and neutral explanation of socialism and fascism. However, you are correct that conservatism is generally associated with small government and a free-market economy, which is in contrast to socialism. Conservatives generally believe in limited government intervention in the economy, low taxes, and individual freedom. Socialism, on the other hand, advocates for greater government involvement in the economy and the redistribution of wealth to create a more equitable society. While there may be some similarities between socialist policies and conservative policies in terms of their emphasis on protecting the interests of the common people, their approaches to achieving these goals are quite different. Regarding your comment about "liberal propaganda," it is important to recognize that political ideologies and perspectives can be influenced by a variety of factors, and it is important to seek out diverse perspectives to form a more comprehensive understanding of issues.

Me: Conservatives value individual freedom, as you said. So if conservatives are right-wing, in what way is fascism right-wing if it puts the nation and its interests above everything else? If the left-wing, or liberals, are for big government, aren't they the real fascists?

AI: Fascism is considered to be right-wing because of its authoritarian and nationalist tendencies. It is a political ideology that emphasizes the supreme authority of the state over individuals and groups, as well as the importance of the nation above all else. This means that individual liberties and freedoms are typically suppressed in the name of national unity and power. However, it's important to note that conservatism and fascism are not the same thing. While conservatism does value individual freedom, it also places a high value on traditional values, limited government, and free-market capitalism. Fascism, on the other hand, seeks to achieve power through authoritarian means and has a strong tendency towards anti-democratic and anti-individualistic policies. Additionally, the idea that the left-wing or liberals are the real fascists is a common misconception. While some left-wing ideologies such as communism can be authoritarian, fascism is a distinctly right-wing ideology. It's important to avoid oversimplifying political ideologies and to understand their complexities in order to have informed political discussions.

Notice that it was struggling with its answer at this point and beginning to ignore its own advice about “oversimplifying.”

Curiously, at that exact time, I got a notice that the ”socket” had failed and was advised to reload the page. When I did the discussion disappeared.

I had intended to bear down on the differences between fascism, socialism, and communism, which the bot already had conceded had similarities although it continued to insist that liberals were not fascists and fascism was “right wing.”

We must remember that artificial intelligence is artificial. It is programmed and he who writes the code is the master of its “thoughts.” My experience provides further evidence the code is not bipartisan.

But it was smart enough to reject the far Left’s claim that conservatives are fascists.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/29/2023 - 16:00
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A Conservative Conversation With A Bothered Bot