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Hawkish Shift In Fed Expectations Sparks Selling In Bonds, Big-Tech, & Black Gold

As The Fed gets ready to drop its headline bomb on the market's head, we note a significantly hawkish drift in the market's expectations for the Terminal rate (still below 5.00% though) and more so in rate-cut hopes (now 15bps less than a week ago)...

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese markets reopened after being closed for the Lunar New Year and from their gap higher, were sold pretty much non-stop...

Source: Bloomberg

US Stocks ended lower on the day After drifting down overnight, we saw the ubiquitous panic-bid at the cash-open, which quickly gave way (after The Dow broke into the green) back to the lows of the day, bounced into the European close and then selling continued...and accelerated in the last few minutes. The Dow was the prettiest horse in today's glue factory (-0.8%) and the Nasdaq was clubbed like a baby seal (down over 2%)...

Today's weakness erased all of the gains from Friday's cash-open melt-up and then some...

There was very little positive in today's TICk data...

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq remains on pace for its best start to a year since 2001...

Source: Bloomberg

The Nasdaq closed back below its 200DMA...

After Friday's melt-up short-squeeze, today looked like a re-laod of the shorts...

Source: Bloomberg

It has been quite the squeeze YTD for shorts...

Source: Bloomberg

Before we leave equity land, we thought it was worth looking at ARKK (which fell today) as it remains on pace for best month ever (up 25%)... if that doesn't sum up this market fever we don't know what does...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold across the curve with the long-end outperforming, belly underperforming (30Y +3bps, 5Y +6bps). NOTE bonds were dumped at the European open...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied back to the upper end of its recent very narrow range...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was hit twice in the last few hours after falling just short of tagging $24k on Sunday evening...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil tanked on the day, despite concerns over stability in the Middle East following a drone attack on an Iranian weapons factory, with WTI back to a $77 handle (its lowest close in almost 3 weeks)...

Gold drifted modestly lower...

Finally, bear in mind that January has been nothing less than a massive 'dash for trash'...

Is that really what The Fed wants?

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/30/2023 - 16:01
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Bollywood Reigns Supreme On YouTube

Indian Bollywood music channel T-Series is currently the channel with the most followers on YouTube (234 million), ahead of kids content channel Cocomelon (152 million).

As Statista's Kathraina Buchholz notes, in 2018, T-Series was involved in a fierce battle over YouTube's top 1 position with the entertainment channel PewDiePie (111 million followers), catapulting the Bollywood channel to new heights.

Infographic: The YouTube Channels with the Most Subscribers | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

PewDiePie, Swede Felix Kjellberg in real life, has since given in to the mass appeal of Indian cinematic soundtracks, falling to rank five behind fellow YouTuber MrBeast and yet another Indian channel, SET India by Sony Entertainment.

Previous to 2018, PewDiePie had been the account with the most subscribers on YouTube (save YouTube’s own channels) for five years. When the Indian channel was inching up to steal the number one spot, Kjellberg and fellow YouTuber friends rallied to keep it by publishing novelty diss track Bitch Lasagna about T-Series and buying expensive seats at the 2019 Super Bowl to hold up messages urging people to subscribe. Indian YouTubers jumped the bandwagon and answered with their own tracks asking people to follow the T-Series account instead, a tactic which ultimately suceeded.

The ranking of the most-followed Youtube channels was still dominated by music and entertainment offerings until early 2020. Since then, more kids content channels have appeared on the scene - potentially testament to coronavirus-induced demand by parents caring for their children at home during school and daycare closures.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/30/2023 - 02:45
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'I Am Not Certain Whether Germans Want Ukraine To Win This War', Says Polish Defense Minister

Authored by Grzegorz Adamczyk via Remix News,

Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said that he was not certain if Germany wants Ukraine to win the conflict.

He is of the opinion that Berlin should donate more tanks from its stockpiles to Ukraine, which is why Polish pressure on Germany remains as strong as it was before.

“There is a reason for this pressure,” said Błaszczak.

He noted that when the Polish government sought support for Ukraine, it was widely criticized by the opposition.

“The opposition blindly parrots Germany, so much so, that if they ruled in Poland, they would say that Ukraine does not need any Leopards or Patriots. They would repeat everything Berlin is saying,” he stated.

The Polish defense minister said in an interview for Polish Radio 1 that President Andrzej Duda announced plans for a coalition to donate modern tanks to Ukraine during his visit to Lviv two weeks ago.

“It can be said plainly, if not for Polish pressure exerted on Germans, the decision to donate Leopard tanks to Ukraine would not have been made,” said Błaszczak.

Berlin just approved donating Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine on Wednesday. In the first phase, 14 Leopard 2A6 tanks will be delivered to Kyiv from the Bundeswehr’s stockpiles. Germany also gave permission to partner countries to deliver similar German-made tanks to Ukraine.

At the same time, Błaszczak stressed, Germany’s decision does not mean a drastic change in the country’s attitude toward the Ukraine war. He referred to the words of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said in the Bundestag that “Leopard tanks are a red line” and Germany will not send fighter jets and land forces to Kyiv.

When asked if Germans really want Ukraine to win the war, Błaszczak admitted that “it is a question he always asks when talking to German officials.”

Błaszczak explained that Polish government remembers “what was going on between Berlin and Moscow and the Nord Stream pipeline,” which allowed Putin to build up his strength.

Błaszczak also mentioned the topic of strengthening Polish military capabilities, stating that this year, 58 Abrams will arrive in Poland, with the first units arriving in spring. Soldiers from the 1st Warsaw Armored Brigade are already trained to use the Abrams tanks, added Błaszczak.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/30/2023 - 02:00
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Air Force General Tells His Officers 'War With China' Only 2 Years Away

In recent years there have been at least a handful of high-ranking US military commanders which in some form or fashion have sounded the alarm over a "coming war with China"... with the latest warning being the most unusual, issued in the form of a memo by an active four-star general and circulated with an official order.

This case is particularly significant given he took the rare step of passing it down through military command and to the chief officers he oversees, giving a greater urgency to the warning: 

A four-star Air Force general sent a memo on Friday to the officers he commands that predicts the U.S. will be at war with China in two years and tells them to get ready to prep by firing "a clip" at a target, and "aim for the head."

In the memo sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, said, "I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025."

General Mike Minihan, a four-star officer, sent the memo Friday. Getty Images

Various reports have counted some 50,000 service members and nearly 500 planes total under Gen. Minihan's command.

The message is particularly alarming given it instructed commanders under him to "consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared."

He explained that he sees Beijing as desirous of moving against the self-ruled island of Taiwan within that time period, and that it would trigger a large US military response. 

The Air Force general further urged "a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain." And in the memo Gen. Minihan issued an order, requiring that all major efforts in preparation for a coming China fight to be reported to him directly by Feb. 28.

As for why he thinks China will invade Taiwan within the next two years, NBC described the following:

Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be "distracted," and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan. 

As for Beijing, it has long claimed it is only interested in pursuing peaceful reunification with Taiwan based on political means. China has further laid blame on Washington for militarizing the island and thus creating current tensions, and by stoking independence forces through high-level visits, such as Nancy Pelosi's ultra-provocative August trip to Taipei.

It should be noted that Gen. Minihan has a reputation for being among the Pentagon's most outspoken and hawkish top generals. In this latest memo, he directed all Air Mobility Command personnel to "fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head."

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The New York Times Is Orwell's Ministry Of Truth

Authored by Edward Curtin via Off-Guardian.org,

“Ingsoc. The sacred principles of ingsoc. Newspeak, double-speak, the mutability of the past.”

– George Orwell, 1984

As today dawned, I was looking out the window into the cold grayness with small patches of snow littering the frozen ground.  As light snow began to fall, I felt a deep mourning in my soul as a memory came to me of another snowy day in 1972 when I awoke to news of Richard Nixon’s savage Christmas bombing of North Vietnam with more than a hundred B-52 bombers, in wave after wave, dropping death and destruction on Hanoi and other parts of North Vietnam.

I thought of the war the United States is now waging against Russia via Ukraine and how, as during the U.S. war against Vietnam, few Americans seem to care until it becomes too late.  It depressed me.

Soon after I was greeted by an editorial from The New York Times’ Editorial Board, “A Brutal New Phase of the War in Ukraine.”  It is a piece of propaganda so obvious that only those desperate to believe blatant lies would not fall down laughing.  Yet it is no laughing matter, for The N.Y. Times is advocating for a wider war, more lethal weapons for Ukraine, and escalation of the fighting that risks nuclear war.  So their title is apt because they are promoting the brutality.  This angered me.

The Times’ Editorial Board tells us that President Putin, like Hitler, is mad.  “Like the last European war, this one is mostly one man’s madness.”  Russia and Putin are “cruel”; are conducting a “regular horror” with missile strikes against civilian targets; are “desperate”; are pursuing Putin’s “delusions”; are waging a “terrible and useless war”; are “committing atrocities”; are responsible for “murder, rape and pillaging,” etc.

On the other hand, “a heroic Ukraine” “has won repeated and decisive victories against Russian forces” who have lost “well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded,” according to the “reliable” source, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chief of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley.  To add to this rosy report, the Ukrainians seem to have suffered no causalities since none are mentioned by the cozy Times’ Editorial Board members from their keyboards on Eighth Avenue. 

When you support a U.S. war, as has always been The Times’ modus operandi as a stenographer for the government, mentioning the dead pawns used to accomplish the imperialists’ dreams is bad manners.  So are the atrocities committed by those forces, so they too have been omitted.  Neo-Nazis, the Azov Battalion?  They too must never have  existed since they are not mentioned.

But then, according to the esteemed editorial writers, this is not a U.S. proxy war waged via Ukraine by U.S./NATO “to strip Russia of its destiny and greatness.”  No, it is simply Russian aggression, supported by “the Kremlin’s propaganda machinery” that has churned “out false narratives about a heroic Russian struggle against forces of fascism and debauchery.”  U.S./NATO were “horrified by the crude violation of the postwar order,” so we are laughingly told, and so came to Ukraine’s defense as “Mr. Putin’s response has been to throw ever more lives, resources and cruelty at Ukraine.”

Nowhere in this diatribe by the Times’ Board of propagandists – and here the whole game is given away for anyone with a bit of an historical sense – is there any mention of the U.S. engineered coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014.  It just didn’t happen.  Never happened.  Magic by omission.

The U.S., together with the Ukrainian government “led” by the puppet-actor “President Volodymyr Zelensky,” are completely innocence parties, according to the Times.  (Note also, that nowhere in this four page diatribe is President Putin addressed by his title, as if to say that “Mr. Putin” is illegitimate and Zelensky is the real thing.)

All the problems stem from when “Mr. Putin seized Crimea and stirred up a secessionist conflict in eastern Ukraine n 2014.”

Nowhere is it mentioned that for years on end U.S./NATO has been moving troops and weapons right up to Russia’s borders, that George W. Bush pulled the U.S. out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and that Trump did the same with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, that the U.S. has set up so-called anti-ballistic missile sites in Poland and Rumania and asserted its right to a nuclear first-strike, that more and more countries have been added to NATO’s eastern expansion despite promises to Russia to the contrary, that 15,000 plus mostly Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine have been killed by Ukrainian forces for years before February 2022, that the Minsk agreements were part of a scheme to give time for the arming of Ukraine, that the U.S. has rejected all calls from Russia to respect its borders and its integrity, that the U.S./NATO has surrounded Russia with military bases, that there was a vote in Crimea after the coup, that the U.S. has been for years waging economic war on Russia via sanctions, etc.

In short, all of the reasons that Russia felt that it was under attack for decades and that the U.S. was stone deaf to its appeals to negotiate these threats to its existence.  It doesn’t take a genius to realize that if all were reversed and Russia had put troops and weapons in Mexico and Canada that the United States would respond forcefully.

This editorial is propaganda by omission and strident stupidity by commission.

The editorial has all its facts “wrong,” and not by accident.  The paper may say that its opinion journalists’ claims are separate from those of its newsroom, yet their claims echo the daily barrage of falsehoods from its front pages, such as:

  • Ukraine is winning on the battlefield.

  • “Russia faces decades of economic stagnation and regression even if the war ends soon.”

  • That on Jan.14, as part of its cruel attacks on civilian targets, a Russian missile struck an apartment building in Dnipro, killing many.

  • Only one man can stop this war – Vladimir Putin – because he started it.

  • Until now, the U.S. and its allies were reluctant to deploy heavy weapons to Ukraine “for fear of escalating this conflict into an all-in East-West war.”

  • Russia is desperate as Putin pursues “his delusions.”

  • Putin is “isolated from anyone who would dare to speak truth to his power.”

  • Putin began trying to change Ukraine’s borders by force in 2014.

  • During the last 11 months Ukraine has won repeated and decisive victories against Russian forces …. The war is at a stalemate.”

  • The Russian people are being subjected to the Kremlin’s propaganda machinery “churning out false narratives.”

This is expert opinion for dummies.  A vast tapestry of lies, as Harold Pinter said in his Nobel Prize address.  The war escalation the editorial writers are promoting is in their words, “this time pitting Western arms against a desperate Russia,” as if the U.S./NATO does not have CIA and special forces in Ukraine, just weapons, and as if “this time” means it wasn’t so for the past nine years at least as the U.S. was building Ukraine’s military and arms for this very fight.

It is a fight they will lose in the days to come.  Russia was, is, and will triumph.

Everything in the editorial is disingenuous.  Simple propaganda: the good guys against the bad guys.  Putin another Hitler.  The good guys are winning, just as they did in Vietnam, until reality dawned and it had to be admitted they weren’t (and didn’t).  History is repeating itself.

Little has changed and so my morning sense of mourning when I remembered Nixon and Kissinger’s savagery at Christmas 1972 was appropriate.  As then, so today, we are being subjected to a vast tapestry of lies told by the corporate media for their bosses, as the U.S. continues its doomed efforts to control the world.  It is not Russia that is desperate now, but propagandists such as the writers of this strident and stupid editorial.  It is not the Russian people who need to wake up, as they claim, but the American people and those who still cling to the myth that The New York Times Corporation is an organ of truth.  It is the Ministry of Truth with its newspeak, double-speak, and its efforts to change the past.

Let Harold Pinter have the last words:

The crimes of the United States have been systematic, constant, vicious, remorseless, but very few people have actually talked about them. You have to hand it to America. It has exercised a quite clinical manipulation of power worldwide while masquerading as a force for universal good. It’s a brilliant, even witty, highly successful act of hypnosis.

Tyler Durden Sun, 01/29/2023 - 21:30
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