Biden Lied About Everything: Philly Fed Finds All Jobs "Created" In Q2 Were Fake
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Biden Lied About Everything: Philly Fed Finds All Jobs "Created" In Q2 Were Fake

Back in August, many were surprised by the accuracy of our forecast, when we predicted that in its annual revision, the Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics would revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by "up to 1 million", something which we said would mean that all job report "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US labor market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.

The final results, as everyone knows by now, was a shocking 818K revision lower, just as the Philadelphia Fed had predicted 6 months prior, in March, when it calculated correctly that the Biden Department of Goalseeking Propaganda had overstated payrolls by "at least 800,000."

The answer ended up 818,000 for the 12 month period ended March 31 (or about 68,000 per month) and the implied sharp deterioration to the job market was the main scapegoat used by the Fed to launch its easing cycle with a jumbo 50bps rate cut (now that "suddenly" the economic golden age pushed by the Biden propaganda regime, and trillions in debt, had just collapsed).

We mention all of this up because on Friday, the Philly Fed served up its latest shocker: not only did the Biden admin lie again, but the collapse in the labor market that had been covered up for much of the past year and was only exposed with the annual benchmark revision, extended into the second quarter.

"Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2024 were significantly different" - read lower - "in 27 states compared with preliminary state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES)", the Philly Fed said on December 12.

"According to the early benchmark (EB) estimates conducted by the Phily Fed, employment was lower in 25 states, higher in two states, and lesser changes in the remaining 23 states and the District of Columbia."

Translation: 23 states unchanged, 1 revised higher...  and 25 lower. The breakdown is shown below.

Maybe someone can calculate what the odds of that distribution occurring naturally are, but here is our guess: virtually nil. Which is why would make such a loud stink every month after the Biden BLS revised jobs data lower month after month after month. The whole point was to make the labor market appear stronger than it was, then to gradually revised it all away. And now the Philadelphia Fed confirms - again - that we were right all along.

And so, after it first revised the 12 months ending March 31 by 818K, the downgrads extended into the second quarter of 2024, when the Philadelphia Fed early benchmark estimates showed that instead of the 1.1% gain shown initially by the BLS, payroll jobs in the 50 states and the District of Columbia were actually down 0.1%!

By state, the regional Fed bank estimates that largest revision of employment for the nine-month period ended in June will come from California, where it sees a downward revision of 172,700 jobs. Payrolls in Texas may be revised down by 112,100. An extended forecast by the BLS to the third quarter show further declines as well.

And while we don't yet know the specifics of the revisions - those will be revealed on Feb 7, 2025 when the final numbers are published - at the national level, we do know that all the jobs reportedly "created" in the second quarter, were actually fake, there were no net jobs created at all, and in fact, the US lost jobs in Q2!

Translation: in his latest attempt to create an impression of economic growth, Biden lied about everything, again.

Source: Philly Fed

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/16/2024 - 17:00
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